The Chinese civilization has existed survived intact far longer than any other in human history, and they have records of that civilization that span 2-3 thousand years BC. They’ve seen more climate change than any other civilization.
The Guardian recently interviewed Xiao Ziniu, the director general of the Beijing Climate Center.
Excerpts:
A 2C rise in global temperatures will not necessarily result in the calamity predicted by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), China’s most senior climatologist has told the Guardian.
He had this bit of wisdom to pass along:
“There is no agreed conclusion about how much change is dangerous,” Xiao said. “Whether the climate turns warmer or cooler, there are both positive and negative effects. We are not focusing on what will happen with a one degree or two degree increase, we are looking at what level will be a danger to the environment. In Chinese history, there have been many periods warmer than today.”
He added:
“Climate prediction has only come into operation in recent years. The accuracy of the prediction is very low because the climate is affected by many mechanisms we do not fully understand.”
We would do well to listen.
More important, we should take note of the fact that China laughs in the face of the west when it comes to regulating their own economy through self imposed emissions goals, while the west cuts back its manufacturing capability, China surges forward.
Nixon awakened a sleeping giant. They’ll squish us like a bug economically and in many other areas. For example China just this week broke ground on a fourth space launch complex.
China will likely go to the moon before the US returns there, perhaps as early as 2014. Meanwhile they aren’t worried about anything, whether it be the atmospheric or the political climate.
In looking at this map from the Beijing Climate Center, it is notable how they see things differently.
Those worrying that the newfound economic might will allow China to build a military base on the moon and dominate us can relax. It won’t happen because they won’t have to, they are simply and methodically buying the USA and have no need for military conquest because war is messy and destroys infrastructure. As we self limit our economic growth due to cap and trade, nationalized healthcare, and redistributuion of wealth, the Chinese have correctly gauged the situation and will continue to explode economically with a refusal to take part in Western Civilizations economic suicide attempt.
Interesting reading the posts on this thread. I do notice that in the discussions of “civilizations”, that there seems to be some tendency to confuse “civilization” with a particular political system/ideology. They are not the same thing.
@ur momisugly Patrick Davis
‘There has been so much damage done to these people that I very much doubt there will be any “record” still preserved.’
Should residual guilt about what was undoubtedly a bad thing preclude us from asking ? And why does “debate” deserve inverted commas ?
@ur momisugly el gordo
‘It has been suggested that up to 80% of the Australian population may have perished during the last glacial maximum, ie 20,000 – 14,000 bp.’
The fact that a stone-age culture / civilisation survived continuously for perhaps 60,000 years should give us hope that we, with all our modern technology and innovation can ride out a few degrees of warming.
Hey Chip, how do you deal with this?
http://singapore.angloinfo.com/countries/singapore/housebuy.asp
Keith Minto, It will take a significant change in our political leadership for the U. S. to become competitive again on the scale of the ’60’s. Competition is what has given us higher quality products and services as driven by a private sector, capitalist economy. (Requires regulation of course.) Alas, the current government does not see a robust, competitive capitalist system as the best way to achieve the greatest good for the greatest percentage of our population. This will stifle incentive and energy needed to make life better for more of us in the long run. Welcome to mediocrity in America.
In the US we have a guy selling ‘intergenerational justice’
http://www.progressiveforumhouston.org/index.htm
And calling for war crimes trials against climate skeptics.
And people are still buying what he is selling.
In China, they have people in charge who actually look at history and understand that we are not really facing much of anything unusual.
And they want to focus on actual pollution and environmental issues.
We are in deep trouble.
As far as China going to the moon by 2020, this is only 11 years away. You might say that they are at the Gemini stage of development. They haven’t made that many maned space flights. Even with the amount of general maned spaceflight knowledge available, they have a ways to go. Also they don’t have a really large booster rocket under development.
Imran (01:01:13) :
Having just read the Guardian article, following the refreshing honesty from this guy (who effectively represents 25% of the people of the planet – at least on climate issues) ….. was the total and utter garbage from the World Meteorological Organisation report stating that climate change is already wreaking havoc in China
A 2 millisecond Google search on “natural disasters in China” brings up Wikipedia and the first sentence is :
“China is one of the countries most affected by natural disasters. It had 6 of the world’s top 10 deadliest natural disasters; the top 3 occurred in China: the 1931 China floods, death toll 2 million to 4 million, the 1887 Yellow River flood, death toll 0.9 million to 2 million, and the 1556 Shaanxi earthquake, death toll 0.83 million”
You just have to laugh … .so the biggest natural disasters were floods in 1931 and 1887.
Copenhagen is toast .. thank god !”
Imran,
Copenhagen is toast, if only th political establishment is willing to admit they are wrong.
This could be the most dificult part of stopping this madness.
Our stupid politicians believe that admitting that you are wrong equals stupidity.
Do you see the problem?
That’s why the only effective solution is to vote them out of Office.
At this moment in time the propaganda mills are in full swing.
All over the media today a combined message from scientists and Greenpeace:
The Arctic ice cap is melting fast.
The winter freezing is not sufficient to compensate for the summer loss.
Europe has turned into the USSR of modern times.
It won’t take long before their citizens find themselves staying in lines for the most basic products as the political establishment is killing the economy.
Currently under attack the agricultural infra structure.
Milk is sold for 1.05 Euro per liter.
Farmers are paid 0.20 Euro per liter.
They need 0.40 Euro per liter in order to survive.
So we currently see the biggest wave of bankruptcies in the history.
The original concept of the EU was to guarentee sufficient food and energy for it’s population.
We now see that the entire system has turned against the interests of it’s people.
Lunatic regulations to promote the use of bio fuels, raising taxes and renewable energy projects that drive up energy prices ruin the very basic of a thriving economy which is the abundant availability of affordable energy.
Copenhagen is key to provide a legal basis to turn Europe into a corporatist/fascist entity worse than the former USSR.
They won’t let go until they have finalized their strive for “total control”.
The original plan of the UN foresees China to be the “factory of the world” and in that regard their plans are developing faster than predicted.
The current financial and economic crises is accelerating the process.
It won’t be long and the biggest centers of democracies in the world cease to exist.
The only wild card able and willing to stop the current process is the American People, the US Senate, the critical blogs on the internet and an extremely harsh winter hitting the US and Europe in 2009-2010.
Great website and blog, so nice to get real scientific analysis as opposed to “Oh yeah, whatever happens its cos of AGW and anyone who say otherwise is a corrupt bastard” you get in most ‘reputable’ media outlets.
As to China, I think at some point in the next century or so their female shortage is going to cause a rather nasty and abrupt end to their rise to dominance. I’ve seen some models (ha!) predicting that by 2100 the Chinese population may be half its present levels.
Now I may be misinformed, but lets not go burying Western civilization just yet.
Johnny Honda (05:13:39) :
Chinese wisdom:
“Whether the climate turns warmer or cooler, there are both positive and negative effects”
Western “wisdom”:
Change=Bad
You can have endless discussion, which civilization is “better”, but concerning the pursuit of personal happiness, the asian civilisation is superior.
The western civilisation has completed the art of living in fear and guilt to perfection.
Well said- Here is one of my favorite quotes:
“A Puritan is someone who goes to bed at night with the gnawing fear that someone,somewhere, is happy.”-HL Menken.
Not a big fan of his but this is accurate.The Warmists are the New Puritans…
Whether you believe in AGW or not, walk outside in Beijing right now and you will not be able to see the sky. Remember the Olympics shutdown? Better yet, I dare anybody reading this to go swimming in the Yellow river. China is definitely an economic powerhouse but you can’t walk outside without a mask to filter out the pollution. But hey, altleast you’ll be rich inside your bubble right?
Patrick Davis (01:26:27)
Re: Youth Decide
I heard of a father who was told in no uncertain terms that his lifestyle and attitudes were responsible for global warming and all the environmental ills and destruction that would be inherited by the next generation. This from his 14 year old son, who had been indoctrinated at school.
The father agreed with his son, and suggested a plan for living more greenly.
1) Get rid of the TV
2) Get rid of the computer, and all games played therewith.
3) Get rid of his mobile phone, ipod, mp3, blackberry etc.
4) Get rid of the car, so, sorry son, no more lifts anywhere and a 2 mile walk to school.
5) No more holidays abroad.
6) All clothing to be bought from charity shops.
7) No more meat or fast food.
I believe the son never mentioned the subject again………
Sorry to double post, and my apologies if this is inappropriate, but we may be able to track AGW by the properties of pilsner!
http://www.newscientist.com/article/mg20327253.400-climate-change-depresses-beer-drinkers.html
Give them credit, what better way of scaring the apathetic masses than by holding their beer to ransom.
Wisdom indeed. And it’s even easier to appreciate when one realizes that this wisdom is not totaly lacking in western culture (as this blog, among so many others, prove).
And so, in kind, I’m going to provide a bit of my own wisdom, for those so ready to trash western culture in the times of the Chinese Bull.
Anyone recall when Japan was going to be the next Greatest Thing That Ever Happened? Yeah, people were told to learn Japanese, to teach their kids Japanese, to “get used to the fact” that Japan was so going to dominate all aspects of life not only in the future, but WELL into the future. But then in 1990, boom finally went bust. Flat, stagnate, broke, and now all everyone can talk about is China.
So there’s been a shift in the marketplace. China has gained some much needed prosperity. But does that mean China is going to dominate? Perhaps, perhaps not, for the trend has at best a lukewarm friendship with the prediction. So I fail to see why anyone should move to China, learn the language, and “get used to the fact”… especially when the fact ain’t even proven yet. (I will learn Chinese if it ever becomes important to my benefit/survival, but not before, thank you very much!).
The irony being that the point of this article is that wisdom is not supposed to be about the short-sighted worship of the trend. Those who moved to China *last year* (I could rest my case right here, on that alone) to “ensure their future” have done no such thing, to not even their own knowledge (no matter how well they trade commodities). After all, who can really say what will happen even five years, ten years, twenty years… into the future? Who knows which policies will be abandoned, and what the new ones to replace them will be?
So I wouldn’t be so quick to bury the west and praise the east. Granted, we can make the prediction and be guaranteed accuracy if the west continues in its anti-carbon crusade (which, btw, many more than not are skeptical of) that the west will fail, but just because China won’t be going green doesn’t mean anything for them, one way or the other. Industrial/market economies have had their troubles, after all, so nothing is ever guaranteed.
” Richard (03:28:15) :
rob uk (03:11:52) : Where`s Flanagan.
On China he would be completely out of his depth.”
Not necessarily. Belgians learn early about China from Rémy Georges, and nowadays China is almost as easy to reach from Europe as the USA.
Like most centrally controlled economies, great errors in the farming industry have been made (think about the soviet experiment to use the rivers Syr Darya and Amu in Uzbekistan for cotton plantations causing the Aral sea to dry up and the desertification of the area). As in Russia – the Chinese authorities record is not great.
Deforestation in the coastal areas of the south east, mean more flooding and less evapo-transpiration. This has a knock effect which leads to the drying up of the interior lands, once fed rainfall from the clouds formed over the forests and blown inland to dryer areas from the south east coast now the winds blow dry. In addition, deforestation leads to large scale erosion of the upland areas, rapid run-off, river silting, thereby causing consequent flooding. An ecological disaster and growing worse.
In the North West, on the Quinghai-Tibet Plateau, the grasslands have been ploughed up and desertification now is rampant, acquifiers have dried up because ground water has been pumped and used for irrigation.
When the northern (Siberian) wind blows the dust clouds swirl down towards the big cities on the coast and north east, the problems grow ever worse.
http://www.grist.org/article/grossman-bites/
http://www.wired.com/wiredscience/2008/03/from-china-with/
China does not believe in AGW, but it is convenient for the government to blame the nebulous vagueness of AGW for the failures of the central government agronomic policies – and consequently, the ecological disasters which are becoming ever more catastrophic. At the same time say to the world,’ we will not be deflected from our industrial growth and anyway some warming may be beneficial!’ -very pragmatic, at Copenhagen they will make noises about this and that but nothing will accrue and the alarmists will proclaim that ‘China is on their side’. The only side that China bats for is…… well, China.
The Chinese refer to their country as the ‘Middle Kingdom” and its true that they’ve bestowed to the world many wonders, and are doing so now, the country is now an economic power-house. They regard Indo-China as their ‘fiefdom’, if one visits Bangkok, the sky train is being built by Chinese engineers and Chinese money and the Chinese influence pervades the City. There is now talk of a ‘trans’ highway from the south of China through to Bangkok. The upper Mekong has been dammed at the Xiaowan dam project, the mighty Mekong is no longer the river it once was.
http://e360.yale.edu/content/feature.msp?id=2162
The Chinese are in Burma and damn near run the country, (but their influence is not as great in Vietnam, they have been enemies for millennia).
China’s rapacious desire for raw materials to feed their great industrial drive, they need to grow at 8% to ‘keep still’ means they have allied themselves with some very unsavourary governments, of which Sudan is a good example
Zimbabwe is another.
They are very coy about what they are doing in Africa, but some refer to it as ‘rape’, an emotive ‘uncivilised’ term.
http://www.bignewsnetwork.com/forum/showthread.php?t=34992
That China is the new super-power is undisputed, but they should be observed very closely. Russia should beware, there are eyes watching the great open spaces in the bordering states of China. They almost exclusively trade now with the Chinese, and the Sino influence will be dominate, and lead to ‘annexation’.
I admire all Eastern Civilations, I like the people, I travel there, but China is coming to us.
skb (01:09:40) :
Phil’s Dad (20:56:34) :
Do a Google search on “Who Were The First Americans?”
Many of the articles, especially from the populat press, will contain the usual array of “could”, “may”, “perhaps” weasel words as well as huge time frames “…lived between 12,000 to 50,000 years ago…” but in the Anthropological world there is some serious discussion that the Americas could have been inhabited as far back as 50,000 years ago and that the Asians who crossed the Bering Land Bridge 12,000 years ago did not find an empty continent but were only the latest of immigrants.
Politically, a lot of the moral force of Native American claims get lost when they cannot claim to be totally innocent victims of European aggression when in fact an even earlier native people (possibly the same stock as the Australian Aborigines) were overwhelmed by them. Native American groups are very aggressive about claiming ancient remains as their own ancestors and usually try to block the “desecration” of scientific analysis on those remains. The political ramifications of a 20,000 year old caucasoid or negroid skeleton in the Americas would be immense.
Political posturing aside, the Indian was in possession when the Europeans arrived and was dispossessed. It is almost impossible to imagine that the outcome of the contact between two such vastly different cultures could have turned out any way other than it did. It is a cruel tragedy nonetheless and continues to be perpetrated on the reservations to this day with their grotesque rates of unemployment, poverty, alcoholism, crime and suicide.
Phil’s Dad (21:17:48) :
And despite that little episode of Europeans showing up with smallpox, horses, and steel.
I can say that I worked a site for a couple of years in the first half of the ’60’s that intercepted weather from the southern half of China.
We were always impressed that their observations were very clean and without any obvious errors. Were the accurate? I suspect they were quite good, but I can’t confirm that.
You could almost set your watch by their CW transmissions — they usually started within 2-3 seconds of scheduled time.
I live in Austin, Texas, where it is safe to exercise vigorously outdoors about 330 days a year. On the other days, if you exercise in the morning or after sunset, you will generally be fine as well.
If I lived in Beijing or any number of Chinese megalopolises, the same would not be true.
I side with John Christy and others who maintain that poverty is the single most likely factor to increase environmental degradation. I thus support, without reservation, the full economic development of China, India, and the entire Third World — not with windmills and solar but the same way we did. Anything less would is unjust, and foolhardy.
What will the result be of India’s and China’s development environmentally? Almost certainly, it will be the improvement of the two countries’ air and water quality, as has largely taken place in the west over the course of the last century. In the short term, though, things are likely to get worse, maybe significantly so. But as people become wealthier they will demand, and eventually receive, an improved environment.
Keep in mind that it wasn’t all that long ago that American lakes and rivers were literally ablaze. When they weren’t on fire, our waterways were choked with fish kills and toxins so thick that swimming in them was essentially unthinkable. As individual and government resources increased, demands were made for the air and water quality to be improved. To a remarkable extent, this has already happened.
As Americans living in the early 21st century, my family has basically won the world geographic lottery, in terms of the quality of life that a decent environment affords. My daughter can run around on the soccer field, swim, and play at the park — without nose bleeds, running eyes, instant asthma, and such. How many Chinese can say the same about opportunities for athletics and general outdoor play for their children?
While China is likely to out-compete us industrially, I cannot agree that it is a certainty that it will also do so technologically. I don’t think that American can-doism is as fragile as that.
As these competitions unfold, I will continue to feel grateful to live someplace as safe and clean, relatively speaking, as the U.S.
————————————————-
The Zhang article linked above is excellent. Irony of ironies: It was edited by Paul Ehrlich. That Paul Ehrlich. The overall message: warmth is always better than cold for humanity.
re: age of the Chinese vs the Sumerians
Although recorded history in China goes back about 3,000 years, the earliest records contain tantalizing references to kingdoms and cultures that were still remembered and which far pre-dated the time of the writers of these records. They seem to be referring to a purely stone-age civilisation which may in fact have predated Sumerian civilisations. That can’t be proved, since there are no written records from that time, but in oral tradition the memory of these societies persisted for a very long time.
Remember that the only reason we credit the Sumerians as first was because they were the ones who came up with the idea of baking their records into hard clay tablets which would last thousands of years without decaying. They may not actually have been first, just the first to find out how to preserver written records for posterity.
And I think that rather than thinking of the modern Chinese through the “communist” prism, it is much more useful to view them as having a reformed and much more efficient version of the same government they’ve had for 2000 years now. This doesn’t make them less intimidating; in fact, I think it makes them more.
China is totally screwed. Peak oil is going to seriously wound the West. It’s going to danged near “kill” China.
It’s a Totalitarian State, dependent on exports. They will be able to “bid” with us for a while for the remaining oil (especially, Russian oil,) but that will throw their “customers” into severe, and prolonged recession. So much for the “export” economy.
By the time the “free” economies have suffered, and adapted, the Chinese economy will be back where it was in the 80’s.
They got started “too late,” and they still have an, eventually suffocating, Command Economy.
Ron de Haan (19:47:38) :
More Chinese, this is a must read:
http://climaterealists.com/index.php?id=4044&linkbox=true
Great article! Thanks!
Emission rights are development rights
All developed countries, without exception, became developed through high-speed industrial growth, and that growth inevitably resulted in intense utilization of fossil energy and massive CO2 emissions.
BINGO! Smart cookies these Chinese…
Therefore, emission rates correlate with development rates and emission rights are development rights. …
Currently the need for fossil energy in China is enormous. China can use the “cumulative emission quota per capita” strategy to gain favorable status.
In other words, they are not going to roll over and play dead and they are not going to give up their development strategy based on fossil fuels.
China is not going to cut their fossil fuel use and The West can go play with itself. Now THAT is going to put a dent in Copenhagen…
He concluded that although China is in the group that needs to reduce the emission increase rate, China can strive for more emission rights since China could get over 30 percent of the global emissions quota
And they expect a minimum of about 1/3 of the GLOBAL energy (and thus economic) budget. For now…
1/6 the people, 1/3 the wealth. Yeah, that’s about right…
E.M.Smith (19:45:06) : “FWIW, one of the very best commodity traders in the world, Jim Rogers, has packed up and moved to Singapore so his kids will grow up speaking chinese and be prepared for the future…”
BTW, Singapore is in Malaysia. But perhaps they require all there to learn “chinese” in order to be prepared for the future.