Yesterday I looked at JAXA data and ventured that:
“Arctic sea ice melt appears to have turned the corner for 2009”
The Sept 15th JAXA Arctic Sea Ice extent graph was published this evening about 8PM PST (and updated overnight which is the image now shown) and shows an increase in sea ice for the second day in a row. It seems clear that Arctic sea ice is now on the rise.
The Sept 14th value was: 5,276,563 km2
You can see this minimum and upturn clearly in the zoomed graph below.
I expect this JAXA value will increase again in about 4 hours once JAXA finishes QC and final data analysis. I’ll post an update when it happens (assuming it is not too late). (UPDATED 7:45AM PDT) 9/16)
Here’s the table of data:
| 9 | 1 | 2009 | 5423750 |
| 9 | 2 | 2009 | 5398281 |
| 9 | 3 | 2009 | 5379844 |
| 9 | 4 | 2009 | 5387969 |
| 9 | 5 | 2009 | 5363438 |
| 9 | 6 | 2009 | 5345156 |
| 9 | 7 | 2009 | 5328906 |
| 9 | 8 | 2009 | 5330469 |
| 9 | 9 | 2009 | 5315938 |
| 9 | 10 | 2009 | 5295313 |
| 9 | 11 | 2009 | 5278594 |
| 9 | 12 | 2009 | 5259375 |
| 9 | 13 | 2009 | 5249844 |
| 9 | 14 | 2009 | 5276563 |
| 9 | 15 | 2009 | 5301094 |
Barring an about face by Nature, the 2009 Arctic Sea Ice minimum occurred on Sept 13th with 5,249,844 km2
UPDATE: WUWT reader Bruce Richardson made a nice zoomed comparison graph, which he offered in comments, that I have added to this article.
dennis ward (22:53:42) :
Two years of (temporary) relatively much lower solar activity and Arctic sea ice is STILL below the 30 year average (which included 1998). Tell the commercial shipping companies that now find it profitable to use the North East passage that we are heading for an ice age.
Firtsly, it is far too early to say we are heading for an ice age, and even if we were, it would be a very slow process (except perhaps for Northern western Europe if the Gulf Stream switched off suddenly). But data from the last few years clearly indicates that the Arctic is cooling, and Antartica is if anything colder than the long term average. Historical data also clearly showes that the arctic has been warmer with much less ice in the past. As for comercial companies using the North East passage, dream on, the two ships that made it through were especially strengthened for ice navigation, and were escorted by a Russian nuclear powered ice breaker. As this article shows, their passage was more dependent on the ships having access to accurate satellite data so they could navigate around the ice, than there being not much ice in the first place:
http://www.theregister.co.uk/2009/09/14/north_eastern_passage/
As a warmist, presumably concerned for mother Earth, perhaps could you confirm that you are actually pleased to see that the Arctic minimum ice extent is in its second year of recovery?
Bulldust: If summer minimum levels continue to grow at about 10% per year, they will reach current winter maximum levels (14-15 mill km2) by 2020 – and by 2040 the summer minimum level will have reached equator, i.e. only 31 years left to snowball earth 😉
If this el nino peters out then it’s “Katy, bar the door” and I have no prediction on how high the maximum will go other than to say higher than last year.
“Tell the commercial shipping companies that now find it profitable to use the North East passage that we are heading for an ice age.”
Well, as they were delivering heavy cargo to Siberia and we accompanied by two nuclear powered ice breakers I would not hold my breath for regular commercial passage.
http://ocean.dmi.dk/arctic/meant80n.php
It started freezing about a week ago….see the small heat-peak about day 245-50….heat was released to the atmosphere.
Kind regards from Greenland
Svend
Ice minimum is still low because the wind blew the old ice out into the atlantic in 2007. We need to build an inventory of old ice again. Young ice does not stand up well in the summer but the inventory of old ice is building. What is interesting is to see the growth of the maximum ice. The maximums are now back to what they were in 2004 and I expect to see more this year because we are starting from a greater ice cover. It will all depend on what the el nino does.
dennis ward (22:53:42) :
Two years of (temporary) relatively much lower solar activity and Arctic sea ice is STILL below the 30 year average (which included 1998). Tell the commercial shipping companies that now find it profitable to use the North East passage that we are heading for an ice age.
Dennis, if we know anything it’s that natural systems tend to be cyclical; when you have events such as 2007’s overriding wind patterns that pushed a lot of ice south (even NSIDC acknowledges this) then it is going to take some time for things to settle out.
The fact that since 2007 there has been ~450,000 sq-km per year ice regrowth is pretty incredible and shows just how feckin cold it is up there.
We are being told (by countless studies and media reports) that the arctic is melting and we’re all basically up a certain creak without a certain implement – all this based on 30 years’ worth of consistent record keeping, hardly definitive I’d say.
Just think, if there had been ice loss of the same amount for the last two years the media would be blaring it from the rooftops as further ‘proof’ that we’re all doomed. Do we hear anything from them or those with an authoritarian position about this additional ice? Nope, nothing, nada, zilch, cock-all.
I personally don’t believe we’re heading for another ice-age, I also don’t think that 2 or 30 years worth of data analysis are enough to establish that [a] we’re heading down dinosaur alley or [b] that CO2 is having any major effect on anything.
I do think that the last 2 years of increased ice extent should cause those ‘in the know’ to pause for a moment and think “oh bugger, we may have got this wrong, maybe it’s not as bad as we’ve been saying, let’s study this some more…”, but instead they continue ‘on-message’ as if no physical evidence to the contrary will deflect them from their views – that ain’t science.
(My six year old daughter can draw a trend line through the data – it doesn’t mean she can predict the future. Mind you, Al Gore would probably still refuse to debate with her.)
Cheers
Mark
Although it’s good to see an mprovement in sea ice area, does anyone have a source for sea ice volume, whch I think is a more important metric?
It will be interesting to see how quickly the ice builds up during the coming winter freeze and if the quiet sun is a good proxy for more rapid ice production.
[realclimate mode] Ohhhh really. We knew this would happen. But new and very robust models suggest this is very temporary. In a few years we will see a rapid decline in sea ice, maybe the artic will be icefree most of winter. 10 years time . You’ll see! To recap, robust, 10 years time tops. No don’t get hung up on the crazy ideas the oil and tobacco industry are trying to put into your head. Remember these number can still be adjusted downwards.[/realclimate mode]
Good coverage of the ‘North East Passage Shipping Lanes’ story here:
http://eureferendum.blogspot.com/2009/09/turd-eaters.html
More coverage of ‘NE Passage’ here:
http://eureferendum.blogspot.com/2009/09/pictures-tell-story.html
It certainly doesn’t change the long-term trend.
It certainly does change the long-term trend. As will any new data not exactly on the previous trend, for any period a trend is calculated.
What has happened is the apparently sharply accelerating downward trend in summer Arctic sea ice has largely reversed.
It also means there is no trend in global sea ice for the satellite era.
http://arctic.atmos.uiuc.edu/cryosphere/IMAGES/global.daily.ice.area.withtrend.jpg
dennis ward (22:53:42) :
Two years of (temporary) relatively much lower solar activity and Arctic sea ice is STILL below the 30 year average (which included 1998). Tell the commercial shipping companies that now find it profitable to use the North East passage that we are heading for an ice age.
I would refer you to this post,
http://eureferendum.blogspot.com/2009/09/pictures-tell-story.html
and this paper,
http://www.cnrs-scrn.org/northern_mariner/vol03/tnm_3_2_1-17.pdf
which detail how commercial shipping has been traveling regularly in the Northeast Arctic passage for decades. I wouldn’t get too excited by the reports of recent passages being totally unprecedented.
Although they were not talking about Arctic Sea Ice, the BBC had an item on its morning Radio show ‘Today’ today. A scientist from the UK Met office said exactly what contributors to this blog have warned would be said. ‘Yes the next 10 – 15 years may see a cooling of the global climate, but that does not mean we do not have dangerous and catastrophic global warming, it is just being masked by the cooling’ or words to that effect. Its beginning to sound a bit like Orwelllian Newspeak – ‘cool’ equals ‘warm’
The other contributor, Philip Stott I think, was a bit more cautious and admitted solar cycles and PDO etc had to be taken into account. He was worried about the political impact of cooling and he used the striking expression the the effect that – ‘people are going to be very sceptical. It will be like NOT finding weopons of mass destruction all over again. All the hype and then nothing there.
Any bets about which day (or if) this will happen?
rbateman (22:50:10)
I agree that the globe is currently in net energy loss mode since the current weak El Nino is not yet strong enough to release energy fast enough to raise air temperatures globally. The cooling of other ocean surfaces is offsetting the modest Pacific warmth and as the northern continents cool down this winter that will add to the net cooling effect in the air unless the El Nino gets stronger.
It is because we are in net cooling mode that the weather systems are slower, more equatorward and more variable latitudinally. It is not the weather systems causing the cooling. The air circulation responds to the generally negative energy balance caused by all the ocean surfaces combined and tries to draw more energy from the oceans by sending larger parcels of polar air more equatorward over warmer waters.
If the El Nino were to strengthen enough to create a positive energy balance globally then we would see the weather systems speed up, move poleward and show less latitudinal wanderings.
During the 1975 to 2000 warming spell the systems were all more poleward than they are now.
From 1945 to 1975 they were approximately where they are now.
I wonder how this graph would have looked in 1800, lots of different natural and human factors around these days compared to the Dalton, but it is early days as we head into the yet unnamed Landscheidt Minimum. There is a lag factor as Robert mentioned, and perhaps much greater ice extents to come over the next 20-30 years, Its not looking anything like a LIA but the AGW need to be worried.
One swallow doesn’t make a summer, but two might indicate a trend. It is, of course, the season for the ice to start forming but my own observations of temperatures here in the west of England is that the Met Office declaring it warmer than last year is misleading. My average temperatures have been considerably lower than last year and it is now colling rapidly. Oh, and the Swallows departed earlier than usual.
tokyoboy (22:44:20) :
I have been always wondering about the 109-year trend displayed on The Cryosphere Today site. IIRC, the satellite observation started in 1978-79. How were the data for 1900-1978 in that graph acquired, and can one splice the older data with the satellite-era data without any problem?
You are probably right, the extent HAD to be similar to present in 40ties, since NW Passage was passable that time as well and air temperatures were also similar. Maybe oceans were a bit colder.
http://climate4you.com/images/MAAT%2070-90N%20HadCRUT3%20Since1900.gif
You mean the 30 year average that’s the ONLY (somewhat measured) average we have out of 4.5 BILLION years? Adding the “which included 1998” is a bit silly since that’s what an “average” is all about.
Yeah and it’s really economical to have icebreakers helping “commercial” ships (with reinforced hulls) through the ice on a routine basis, eh? Get real!
@Tokyoboy,
While I don’t have solid base for my speculation, I think the main explanation is “geographical boundaries” in the Arctic.
At times with much ice in the Arctic, the “entire” arctic basin is frozen (You’ll see it nicely when looking at the various oceanic components at “Cryosphere today”)
Eventual further expansion would have to take place in the “open-ended” Beering Sea (+ Okhotsk Sea), the Barents Sea the Davies and Danmark Straits.
These “open ended” oceans are likely more vulnerabel to wind/wave stress and establishment of permanent ice here is more difficult.
My two cents
Cassanders
In Cod we trust
Dennis Ward, if you take the trouble to read rather than believe what you’re told you will see that two German ships didn’t actually us the NE Passage. Still you were nearly right in a two choice situation.
So, let’s review the NSIDC/media spin (a mere 5 days ago):
http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20090911/ap_on_re_eu/eu_germany_arctic_passage
2 German cargo ships pass through ‘Arctic Passage’
By MATT MOORE and SETH BORENSTEIN, Associated Press Writers Matt Moore And Seth Borenstein, Associated Press Writers Fri Sep 11, 2:35 pm ET
…
This year is shaping up to have the third lowest amount of Arctic sea ice on record, just behind the worst year set in 2007 and in 2008. But just because 2009 is slightly up from the past two years, it is not an upward trend or a recovery, Serreze said. It reflects a change in local weather patterns that occurred in August, he said.
“It’s certainly part of the overall decline of sea ice that we’ve been seeing,” Serreze said.
—
Note the use of the phrases “…just behind the worst year set in 2007…” and “…2009 is slightly up from the past two years…”.
In my opinion, this kind of outrageous media spin is totally inexcusable!
Hasse@Norway (01:19:09) :
[realclimate mode] Ohhhh really. We knew this would happen. But new and very robust models suggest this is very temporary. In a few years we will see a rapid decline in sea ice, maybe the artic will be icefree most of winter. 10 years time . You’ll see! To recap, robust, 10 years time tops. No don’t get hung up on the crazy ideas the oil and tobacco industry are trying to put into your head. Remember these number can still be adjusted downwards.[/realclimate mode]
You are driven by emotion, but as it happens you are nearly right. We are in for a minor cooling period of 20-30 years which will be followed by a gradual climb to warmer than we have just experienced, but it will have nothing to do with Co2.
http://www.landscheidt.info/images/200predsm.jpg
dennis ward (22:53:42) :
Two years of (temporary) relatively much lower solar activity and Arctic sea ice is STILL below the 30 year average (which included 1998). Tell the commercial shipping companies that now find it profitable to use the North East passage that we are heading for an ice age.
One more for Dennis:
http://eureferendum.blogspot.com/2009/09/turd-eaters.html