It looks like we’ll see the 2009 Arctic sea ice melt season bottom out in a few days and it won’t be a record setter. Even NSIDC admits this. Here is a magnified graph of the IARC-JAXA AMSRE sea ice extent plot that is linked in the sidebar of WUWT.
Here is the full sized image:
For reference here are some other sea ice graphs:
I made a prediction a few threads back that we’ll see a turn on September 9th. Many others made predictions then. Since JAXA is not on holiday tomorrow like we are in the USA, I expect we’ll see an update for Sept 7th in the next 12-18 hours. We have an update for Sept 6th data now and it is shown above.
In the meantime feel free to discuss the issue in this open thread.
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Right on the button so far – Arctic Ice 5,312,813 Km^2. Melt 17,656.
Wait for the update.
“”” Smokey (09:26:04) :
RR Kampen,
What does acid rain have to do with global warming? “””
Well I thought that was well understood. Acid rain is caused by acid and rain.
The acid arises from sulphur aerosols (from volcanoes) and those sulphur aerosols gather water, and form sulphuric acid, and those acid droplets grow into bigger water droplets, and form clouds, and eventually the aciedic water droplets are large enough to precipitate out as acid rain. In the process, the rain clouds reflect and block solar energy from reaching the ground, so the surface temperature cools.
That is what acid rain has to do with global warming; acid rain is a negative forcing (hate that word) that helps combat global warming; even the natural global warming, as well as the man made global warming; whatever that is.
According to my Excel calculations, the Arctic sea-ice extent average anomaly for this year to date is 86,930 sq km above the average curve (the daily average sea-ice extent for the whole AMSR-E record.)
The average anomaly for 2008 was 3,120 sq km below average and for 2007 it was 487,230 sq km below average, the lowest value in the AMSR-E record. The highest anomaly was for 2003 at 386,080 sq km above average.
The total ice extent variation each year has averaged about 8,540,000 sq km, a typical melt of 61% of the winter maximum. These are all my own unofficial calculations. I believe it is far too soon to draw any conclusion from this data related to the current period of minimal solar activity.
Re: Richard M (04:26:16) :
“And in August? Those who get excited about one month temps are bound to see disappointment in their futures.”
August top 5-percentile over past century, a bit down from July.
According to AMSU-A September is scheming for #1. Warmest, of course.
—
Re: Smokey (09:26:04) :
“What does acid rain have to do with global warming?”
Please ask/re-read jim (21:27:52).
Hello,
I just thought I’d stick my head in.
I doubt that the Arctic Ocean will be completely ice-free by 2011. I think it is likely that a small permanent ice base will always exist, or at least will last a lot longer than the rest of the surrounding ice. In other words, I think that the last bit of ice will take a lot longer to melt, if it ever does.
I am fairly confident that shipping lanes will be open every summer from now on. Within ten years it will be evident that this is a permanent feature of the new climate of the north. By then there will be many other observable changes to that region. Startling changes when compared with the late 1970s.
We are three decades past that point with profound changes to report, and many more to come. At some point even the most stubborn will have to admit that we live on a warming planet.
I would say that the above is slightly more important than the eventual correctness of that prediction you quoted, but I would like to thank you for quoting it, which led me here to respond in more detail.