Many commenters have mentioned “The Watts Effect”, whereby within a short period of time after I do a post about the sun on WUWT mentioning the lack of sunspots, one appears.
I figured it was time to settle the issue with a test, a big one. The sun is blank, here is my post. We are about to break the monthly calendar record (again) for a calendar month without sunspots. Ironically this last occurred in August 2008. Depending on whether you believe NOAA or SIDC in Belgium about whether a sunspeck noted by one observatory (Catainia in Italy) was a valid sunspot or not determines if August 2008 was a sunspotless calender month or not. Let’s hope neither Catainia, SIDC, or my nefarious and dubious spot producing solar powers spoil this run.
But wait, there’s more.
This was in Spaceweather.com today:
Inspect the image below. It is a photo of the sun taken by the Solar and Heliospheric Observatory (SOHO). Can you guess what day it was taken? Scroll down for the answer.
August 28th, today. But it could have been taken on any day of the past seven weeks. For all that time, the face of the sun has looked exactly the same–utterly blank.
According to NOAA sunspot counts, the longest string of blank suns during the current solar minimum was 52 days back in July, Aug. and Sept. of 2008. If the current trend continues for only four more days, the record will shift to 2009. It’s likely to happen; the sun remains eerily quiet and there are no sunspots in the offing. Solar minimum is shaping up to be a big event indeed.
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Here’s the count as of August 30th:
Spotless Days
Current Stretch: 51 days
2009 total: 193 days (80%)
Since 2004: 704 days
Typical Solar Min: 485 days
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The spot was gone before it could be counted…
The continuing Saga of boredom…
Bill H (17:10:56) : “we are measuring loss/reflection through a changing medium. Ion counts, TSI at the edge of the atmosphere, and at the surface… along with meteorological measurements as well..”
I understand you to be saying that TSI at the edge of the atmosphere measurements take into account obliquity and that they are different at different latitudes. Then the TSI difference at the surface measured at the same latitude would be the result of the loss/reflection properties of the atmosphere at that point and have nothing to do with position of the Earth in relation to the Sun. Am I correct?
OK its is about 3 hours past ooGMT Sept1, 2009 I’ve checked all my sources.
Catainia drawing shows nothing for the 31st, other observatories, Uccle in Beligium, Locarno in Germany both show nothing on sketches.
This animation from SIDC of the past 30+ days shows nothing for August but DOES show group 1025 popup on 9/1/2009
http://sidc.oma.be/html/cmap_animator.html
I also checked SIDC’s sunspot report data, nothing.
It looks like the spot today, group 1025, squeaked by and was not observed until after August 31st game clock ran out at 00 GMT 91/2009
Then I checked NOAA SWPC….
http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/ftpdir/latest/DSD.txt
And wouldn’t you know it, they have something whereas last year it was the other way around…NOAA had nothing, SIDC (via Catainia) did…so where does that leave us?
Leif said last year that SIDC had the last word…so unless they change their report, we may indeed have a spotless calendar month.
We’ll have to see what happens when their report comes out tomorrow.
http://sidc.oma.be/products/ri_hemispheric/
Tom in Florida (19:50:37) :
I understand you to be saying that TSI at the edge of the atmosphere measurements take into account obliquity and that they are different at different latitudes. Then the TSI difference at the surface measured at the same latitude would be the result of the loss/reflection properties of the atmosphere at that point and have nothing to do with position of the Earth in relation to the Sun. Am I correct?
If i understand you , yes..
Point A the Sun,
Point B the satellite,
Point C the point on the earth if you were to draw a straight line.
Note that the Satellite will have to move to accommodate for tilt of the earth during phases so that the point on the earth does not change. The elliptical orbit must maintain the same distance at each measurement. Polar orbits are best due to speed and flatness of orbit at mid lats.
Measurement of TSI at pass for two minuets and average.
Average-Average=Loss
Measure cloud cover and density..
then plot…smooth overlaying global cloud coverage.
This is brief but you get the drift..
I’m excited for you Anthony; after 52 days it seems the Watts effect is as reliable as the Gore effect. Even though it only produced a photo finish this time.
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wattsupwiththat (20:10:26) :
Lots of controversy….and to top it off we havent got any decent images to measure it against so far. We might have to convert GONG images to test if it makes the Layman’s Count.
It has been a few days since you posted the article, but seeing how long this stretch has been, maybe I have to concede the “The Watts Effect” is still good?
Anthony,
The “Watts effect” seems to be as powerful as the “Gore Effect”. Now we have 12 sunspots since a couple of hours back. How big and will they be and how long will last?
SIDC reports 0.0 for August 2009
SOHO is updated. Two nice spots.
Does not look as if there as much umph there as in the 1024 round.
Anthony.
Do you think you could have waited until after the record was broken to demonstrate you powers?
Are perhaps you are just really sensitive the the minute changes in the suns magenetic field that tells you….
There’s a spot a comin’!
Nevertheless…this little exercise was pretty darn funny!
SOHO is updated. Two nice spots.
Does not look as if there as much umph there as in the 1024 round.
After 1024, they look a little anemic to me. One is about the size of a burnt pixel, and the other just a little bigger. I guess we wait and see how long it hangs around.
It might have been my imagination, but the magnetogram seems to be showing the magnetic signature from 1024 now to the soutwest corner. If it is, is it normal to be able to see it 90-some days later?
A 2012 iceage would be a bummer, best pack my thermals.