Many commenters have mentioned “The Watts Effect”, whereby within a short period of time after I do a post about the sun on WUWT mentioning the lack of sunspots, one appears.
I figured it was time to settle the issue with a test, a big one. The sun is blank, here is my post. We are about to break the monthly calendar record (again) for a calendar month without sunspots. Ironically this last occurred in August 2008. Depending on whether you believe NOAA or SIDC in Belgium about whether a sunspeck noted by one observatory (Catainia in Italy) was a valid sunspot or not determines if August 2008 was a sunspotless calender month or not. Let’s hope neither Catainia, SIDC, or my nefarious and dubious spot producing solar powers spoil this run.
But wait, there’s more.
This was in Spaceweather.com today:
Inspect the image below. It is a photo of the sun taken by the Solar and Heliospheric Observatory (SOHO). Can you guess what day it was taken? Scroll down for the answer.
August 28th, today. But it could have been taken on any day of the past seven weeks. For all that time, the face of the sun has looked exactly the same–utterly blank.
According to NOAA sunspot counts, the longest string of blank suns during the current solar minimum was 52 days back in July, Aug. and Sept. of 2008. If the current trend continues for only four more days, the record will shift to 2009. It’s likely to happen; the sun remains eerily quiet and there are no sunspots in the offing. Solar minimum is shaping up to be a big event indeed.
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Here’s the count as of August 30th:
Spotless Days
Current Stretch: 51 days
2009 total: 193 days (80%)
Since 2004: 704 days
Typical Solar Min: 485 days
Within two days sun will reach spotless days period record of cycle 12, 54 days.
the_Butcher (08:50:37) :
I suspect many of the readers here will be long dead before we see sc24 maximum…that’s why leif acts a bit nervous trying to hold his upward trend in his graph with ghost spots
What if that maximum was already reached?, that would be great!: Another lost cycle.
http://solarcycle24.com/
Dear dear, a cycle 24 spot is forming as we speak. It is in the Gong plots which are more current.
What I love is that the warmies stated as fact that the sun cycle has no impact on weather. Now, without publishing any correction etc. they are just using it as common knowledge. Statments like, “due to the current weak sun, we are saved for a couple of years, but we must act now to prevent future disaster”. Same thing with the lack of warming in the last 10ish years, and the little ice age etc.
Behold! The Watts Effect in action. Took three days to kick in but still spooky.
New Sunspot 8/31/09 16:00
http://www.solarcycle24.com/
Small spot forming.
Is it too late to be a result of the Watts Effect?
Damn you people got so excited like you saw jebus or somth…
Too small and too close to the equator…
Anthony –
Sunspot, northern hemisphere has started to form today(8/31), source: solarcycle24.com
Your linkage isn’t quite done yet…
Nothing in Catania:
http://sidc.oma.be/html/Solarmap.html
in SOHO one dead pixel in northern hemisphere another near equator.
I see it, projected in a 70mm F/10 refractor at 27x.
Tiny little thing.
1st outing took a few minutes to find, difficult to find and to hold.
2nd outing took much longer, only held onto sighting for couple seconds twice.
3rd outing a little better, but disappeared for several minutes.
Clouds are coming so I’m out of commission.
Can’t tell you if it’s growing, standing still or fading. Sorry.
SOHO is not updating very well. Problems at Mt. Wilson (fire).
I repeat my earlier exhortations for all of you to get your hands on a small refractor at the very least, get out there and have at it. There’s no telling when the next spot may be the last spot in your lifetime. It’s been 51 days since I was last able to successfully project a spot.
Don’t get left behind and don’t depend on technology to always be there.
You owe it to the next generation, the very same way we owe the witnesses to the Maunder.
rbateman (14:09:26) :
You owe it to the next generation, the very same way we owe the witnesses to the Maunder
And what is much more important: Real data. Just imagine the data the future generations will get if from those “scientists/gaia priests” we all know.
18 x 10E6 hemispherical rough calc corrected for foreshortening from GONG Big Bear 2009 08 31 16:04UT image.
rbateman (02:21:53) :
Bill H (21:44:00) :
What general part of the continent are you in that you see geese flying south?
central Wyoming….
and Mr spot is gone…..again… all excited and all for not….
Anthony, you may or may not want to put up something on Mt. Wilson.
The USFS has ordered ground crews off the hill. Aerial firefighting only.
Tom in Florida (08:46:27) :
Bill H (21:27:09) : “TSI reduction at the earths surface…”
Do you mean insolation? If so it would be less confusing if you said it that way. If not, could you explain the difference.
I don’t know if that is the proper term or not. the energy metered at the outer edge of the atmosphere and then again at the earths surface. there are several components to insolation and we are measuring loss/reflection through a changing medium. Ion counts, TSI at the edge of the atmosphere, and at the surface… along with meteorological measurements as well..
Water vapor has much more impact than GHG’s in total..
Leif Svalgaard (05:58:25) :
Bill H (21:27:09) :
In 2000 through 2005 the average was .286% loss. Since 2007 that loss has steadily increased in relation to increased cloud formation.. Roughly .22% Cloud increase to .1%TSI reduction at the earths surface. SO our 2.6% increase of lower cloud formation has resulted in a .6-1% TSI reduction at the earths surface…
This still does not make sense. Try again.
Try… energy through a resistor.. By changing the resistors value you can change the received power. Sun is a constant.. The earths atmosphere is a variable.. The surface is the receptor… Anything that can change the variable affects the total received.
The sun may not be wavering in its total output.. However, its magnetic fields drive (or appear to drive) cosmic ray counts which enter the earths atmosphere (solar wind speed). This is the variable factor while not a direct result of the suns output is driven by solar activity. By knowing what is coming into the atmosphere we isolate the area of interest.
measurements at orbit are slightly higher than measurements at the surface… but knowing what is being lost/reflected is what we are after knowing why is just a bonus…!:).
Nicely put, Bill.
If you drop the TSI slightly AND increase the rate of rejection at min ,raise the TSI slightly AND drop the rate of rejection at max, you end up with more net change.
Here is a tid bit…. Just what we are correlating…..
“Charbonneau said the mean average temperature for the month of August has been 17.27 C — more than a full degree cooler than the average of 18.5 C for this month.”
9 month trend…..
ttp://www.winnipegfreepress.com/breakingnews/Weather-record-leaves-us-cold-56349932.html
rbateman (18:03:19) :
Nicely put, Bill.
If you drop the TSI slightly AND increase the rate of rejection at min ,raise the TSI slightly AND drop the rate of rejection at max, you end up with more net change.
BINGO!
now if we could just predict solar wind and rates of heat transfer we might get close to being able to predict the weather… and possibly global temp..
http://www.winnipegfreepress.com/breakingnews/Weather-record-leaves-us-cold-56349932.html
Woops…messed up the link..
rbateman (18:03:19) :
I would also add the ADO, PDO and other oscillations that would enhance or dampen the change.. The ADO and PDO are cold….With the rejection happening we have SIGNIFICANT net LOSS in upper latitudes.. as i posted above…
Bill H (21:27:09) :
In 2000 through 2005 the average was .286% loss. Since 2007 that loss has steadily increased in relation to increased cloud formation.. Roughly .22% Cloud increase to .1%TSI reduction at the earths surface. SO our 2.6% increase of lower cloud formation has resulted in a .6-1% TSI reduction at the earths surface…
Thanks Bill, do you have a link or resource showing how these measurements are taken? If so and its reliable then we have something strong to follow.
Look what you have done now. SpaceWeather.com Aug 31
NEW SUNSPOT: A new sunspot is emerging about 15o north of the sun’s equator: map. Pete Lawrence sends this picture from his backyard observatory in Selsey, UK:
“It is small, but a welcome sight, especially after the current long run of no surface activity,” he says.
Indeed, if this active region consolidates into a true dark-cored sunspot, it will break a string of nearly 52 spotless days, one of the longest quiet spells of the current solar minimum.