At the risk of triggering a new sunspot by talking about it, I’ll cautiously mention that by GMT time midnight tomorrow, August 10th, we will possibly have a 30 day stretch of no sunspots at a time when cycle 24 has been forecast by many to be well underway. Here is the most recent (and auto updating) SOHO MDI image of the sun:
Spotless Days Count
(updated data from Spaceweather.com)
Current Stretch: 29 days
2009 total: 171 days (78%)
Since 2004: 682 days
Typical Solar Min: 485 days
Here is the latest data from NOAA’s Space Weather Prediction Center:
:Product: Daily Solar Data DSD.txt :Issued: 0225 UT 09 Aug 2009 # # Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center # Please send comments and suggestions to SWPC.Webmaster@noaa.gov # # Last 30 Days Daily Solar Data # # Sunspot Stanford GOES10 # Radio SESC Area Solar X-Ray ------ Flares ------ # Flux Sunspot 10E-6 New Mean Bkgd X-Ray Optical # Date 10.7cm Number Hemis. Regions Field Flux C M X S 1 2 3 #--------------------------------------------------------------------------- 2009 07 10 68 13 60 0 -999 A0.0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 2009 07 11 68 0 0 0 -999 A0.0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 2009 07 12 68 0 0 0 -999 A0.0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 2009 07 13 67 0 0 0 -999 A0.0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 2009 07 14 67 0 0 0 -999 A0.0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 2009 07 15 67 0 0 0 -999 A0.0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 2009 07 16 67 0 0 0 -999 A0.0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 2009 07 17 66 0 0 0 -999 A0.0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 2009 07 18 67 0 0 0 -999 A0.0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 2009 07 19 68 0 0 0 -999 A0.0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 2009 07 20 68 0 0 0 -999 A0.0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 2009 07 21 68 0 0 0 -999 A0.0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 2009 07 22 68 0 0 0 -999 A0.0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 2009 07 23 68 0 0 0 -999 A0.0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 2009 07 24 68 0 0 0 -999 A0.0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 2009 07 25 69 0 0 0 -999 A0.0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 2009 07 26 68 0 0 0 -999 A0.0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 2009 07 27 68 0 0 0 -999 A0.0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 2009 07 28 69 0 0 0 -999 A0.0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 2009 07 29 68 0 0 0 -999 A0.0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 2009 07 30 68 0 0 0 -999 A0.0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 2009 07 31 69 0 0 0 -999 A0.0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 2009 08 01 68 0 0 0 -999 A0.0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 2009 08 02 68 0 0 0 -999 A0.0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 2009 08 03 67 0 0 0 -999 A0.0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 2009 08 04 66 0 0 0 -999 A0.0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 2009 08 05 66 0 0 0 -999 A0.0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 2009 08 06 67 0 0 0 -999 A0.0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 2009 08 07 68 0 0 0 -999 A0.0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 2009 08 08 67 0 0 0 -999 A0.0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
While it is possible that we’ll see a 30 day stretch of days with no sunspots, we have yet to complete a calendar month without a sunspot.
A year ago in August 2008, we initially had completed a sunspotless calendar month. But, as fate would have it, that distinction was snatched away at the very last moment by the folks in Belgium at SIDC based on one sketch of a plage cum sunspeck from Catainia observatory in Italy.
As Carly Simon once fabulously sung:
I know nothing stays the same
But if youre willing to play the game
Its coming around again
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The daily mean temperatures north of 80 degrees north have dropped back to the freezing point (DMI Centre for Ocean and Ice).
Peter Plail (14:33:49)
I’m with you there Peter. I just scrolled that image on my laptop and counted up to Cycle 28! Explain that one please Leif 🙂
TJA (14:46:57) :
I am holding out on that one. It seems like volcanoes appear whenever they are needed to explain this or that, their effects are estimated, then fed into the models.
Their effect is seen directly, and as real data they must then be fed into the models, e.g. http://i44.tinypic.com/144ag5f.jpg
Leif, I’m thinking that if I counted up all the sunspots for the last ten years (or 20 years) I’d get a smaller number than if I started my count in, say, Aug 10, 2005.
Perhaps the right number would be 10.5 years, and 21, or 11 years, and 22 (whatever is the length of the “average” solar cycle.)
I think we have to get away from thinking in terms of “a year,” or, perhaps, even, a “cycle.”
Looks like the “Watts effect” has struck again! Is that a cycle 23 spot I see commin’ ’round the mountain?
Ooops… http://sohowww.nascom.nasa.gov/data/realtime/mdi_mag/512/
TJA, I do not deny the planet has undergone some warming recently, and thank goodness, otherwise my home in Ottawa would still be under kilometers of ice!!! Even on a short time scale, since the 17th century, it has gotten warmer, but not in terms of 1000 years; it was warmer then.
This whole “global warming” scam is a huge cherry picking operation.
Oh yes, it is also a huge pocket picking operation.
Perhaps like earth the sun has some mechanism that buffers its heat output between max and min. It is possible that after a long period of low activity the suns ‘buffer’ will start to get depleted and TSI will begin to drop.
Could be now is a good time to stock up on fuel and non-perishable foods before the winter starts?
The earths obit is elliptical, but is it tied to the sun or the solar system barycenter?
Tenuc (16:31:44) :
Preparation. What a concept. Think of it as a variation on Civil Defense.
Something you will never hear one word of out of ‘Climate Change’ catastrophically faster than expected proponents.
Take a quick look at the STEREO Ahead & Behind images. The deep quiet has uncovered features that more resemble Clouds of Venus. The Sun has a “Mohawk” lately. In addition, the North Polar Coronal hole is well defined and rather circular, both Ahead & Behind. Which brings up Solar Lag as a concept.
I give you the vote for idea of the week.
INGSOC (16:09:06) :
The images haven’t been updated since 28th July.
From the website: “NOTE: MDI is temporarily offline while new commands and data tables are uploaded. Normal operations are expected to resume in a few days.”
Now. If I was a conspiracy theorist…
How long has it beens since “Normal operations are expected to resume in a few days”?
EIT and MDI are offline. Extended Bakeout and commands phase.
Hinode underwent a bakeout in a day.
Yes, it has been quite some time since the room has breathed.
http://sohowww.nascom.nasa.gov/data/realtime/mdi_igr/512/
They have now updated some of the images. This one was 7th August. Still nothing even resembling anythong that could be mistaken for a spot – even from the top of Mt Etna.
Just that little glitch past the midpoint near the South Solar Pole.
I’m certainly more people will immediately begin looking for anythong revealing all unforeseen, and most unhindseen, spots on most warm, sunny beaches around the world…. 8<)
Geoff Sharp (01:55:31) : perhaps something is happening different from what modern science has experienced
It’s so nice to be outside the box!
p.s. not all scientists are lost at the moment about what is happening in the sun… dare I peep the name Piers Corbyn
Kum Dollison (15:23:11) :
if I counted up all the sunspots for the last ten years (or 20 years) I’d get a smaller number than if I started my count in, say, Aug 10, 2005.
If I counted up all the photons received from the Sun for the last ten years or 20, I’d get a larger number [I think you meant ‘larger’, otherwise your statement is wrong on its face, because the latter count is a subset of the former] than if I started my count in, say Aug 10, 2005, but the temperature today is about the same as four years ago.
Lee (16:51:21) :
The earths obit is elliptical, but is it tied to the sun or the solar system barycenter?
The Earth [actually the barycenter of the Earth and the Moon] orbits the barycenter of the system consisting of the Sun and the Earth [incl the Moon]. Similar for all the other planets. This is because the gravitational force between the Sun and the Earth+Moon acts along the line connecting the two. Most people cannot [or will not see or understand this]. For them, there is an observational test: we measure some radiation from the Sun [it can be TSI or F10.7]. Since the radiation intensity falls of with the square of the distance, we have a direct measurement of the distance and it is indeed the distance you get from considering the Earth in orbit about the Sun [and not the SSB].
Lee (16:51:21) :
The earths obit is elliptical, but is it tied to the sun or the solar system barycenter?
The best way to determine this is by looking at the JPL data which is freely available. All the planets orbit around their mutual planet/sun barycenters or basically around the sun.
The sun orbits around the SSB.
Kath (10:36:59) :
“BTW, now “climate change” is a national security issue…”
Kath, unbelievable isn’t it? The key sentence from that article is “The Department of Defense’s assessment of the security issue came about after prodding by Congress to include climate issues in its strategic plans — specifically, in 2008 budget authorizations by Hillary Rodham Clinton and John W. Warner, then senators.”
The DoD doesn’t require prodding from Congress on legitimate security threats.
Okay, let me try to phrase this in such a way that even a scientist could understand it.
I think the number of sunspots (a proxy for some type of energy affecting the earth) cumulative, from Aug 9, 1999 to Aug 9, 2009 would be a smaller number than the number of sunspots from Aug 9, 1995 to Aug 9, 2005.
Perhaps, though, I should be using a number closer to the number of years in the average sunspot cycle. Maybe, 11?
Sunspots (cumulative) above a certain number within a certain timeframe (to be determined) might equal a warming influence. The number of sunspots (within a certain time period) being below a certain number might, all else being equal, be a harbinger of a cooling trend.
Whether the temperature is the same, or different, than 4 years ago would not, necessarily be important.
Kum Dollison (21:08:23) :
Okay, let me try to phrase this in such a way that even a scientist could understand it.
At the end of the cycle we are back to where we were and the temperature would be the same, just like at the end of the year we are back to where we were and the temperature would be the same. If one year is warmer than the previous, then there might be a delay until the temps are back to “normal”. The same for solar cycles. One could discuss how long that delay is, but after it the temps are bound to be back to ‘normal’. For the annual cycle the delay is a couple of months. What would make the delay different for a solar cycle? and how long do you think the delay is?
TJA (09:56:07) :
“This is from the journal of Mary Shelly, author of Frankenstein, written during the Dalton minimum:
I passed the summer of 1816 in the environs of Geneva. The season was cold and rainy, and in the evenings we crowded around a blazing wood fire, and occasionally amused ourselves with some German stories of ghosts, which happened to fall into our hands. These tales excited in us a playful desire of imitation. Two other friends (a tale from the pen of one of whom would be far more acceptable to the public than any thing I can ever hope to produce) and myself agreed to write each a story, founded on some supernatural occurrence. (Shelley 1998:14)”
Here is a link to a very descriptive article in French written by the first Mayor of Val d’Ajol, a small town in the Vosges Mountains in the northeast of France. It describes the year 1815-1816 as ” L’année de la misère” (The year of misery)
http://www.girmont.org/premier_maire.html
Here is one paragraph that I have translated into English that gives an idea of the conditions:
“In 1815, there were only 22 days without rain, and in the month of October, on the plain, the harvested wheat was covered in snow. This lead to 1816 being called the year of misery, their being no wheat from abroad.”
The article goes on to describe that due to the lack of food people were forced to eat cats, dogs and rodents, and that many died of starvation.
Okay, forget solar “cycles.” Use 15 years, instead (I’m just pulling a number out of a hat, here.)
How many “spots” have we had in the last 15 years? I’m assuming it’s a smaller number than if I was considering the 15 years leading up to, and including Aug 9, 2005 (or, Aug 9, 2004, or pick a recent date.)
I’m saying that a “spot” is a proxy for some unit, of something, or other, that causes some small amount of heat to be accumulated on earth (probably, in the oceans.)
The more “heat units” accumulated, the more OHC (all other things being equal, of course) and thus a warming influence on the atmosphere.
Forget about “cycles” resetting. Some cycles are more active than others, right? Some are longer, right? How about this: What is the average number of sunspots/day over the laxt X years?
If that number has been decreasing, does that mean the atmosphere is likely to get cooler?
Despite what Leif says, I am convinced that the temperatures will drift lower due to the spotless (low activity) Sun, and the July temp anomaly is just a temporary spike.
The arctic ice extent seems to follow the satellite temperatures. From 29th June 09 to 27th July 09 the sea-ice extent trended down compared to last year.
From 27th July to 9th August it has trended up. From the 6th of August it has been more than last year. On the 9th of August it was 107,500 sq Kms more than on the same date in 2008.