At the risk of triggering a new sunspot by talking about it, I’ll cautiously mention that by GMT time midnight tomorrow, August 10th, we will possibly have a 30 day stretch of no sunspots at a time when cycle 24 has been forecast by many to be well underway. Here is the most recent (and auto updating) SOHO MDI image of the sun:
Spotless Days Count
(updated data from Spaceweather.com)
Current Stretch: 29 days
2009 total: 171 days (78%)
Since 2004: 682 days
Typical Solar Min: 485 days
Here is the latest data from NOAA’s Space Weather Prediction Center:
:Product: Daily Solar Data DSD.txt :Issued: 0225 UT 09 Aug 2009 # # Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center # Please send comments and suggestions to SWPC.Webmaster@noaa.gov # # Last 30 Days Daily Solar Data # # Sunspot Stanford GOES10 # Radio SESC Area Solar X-Ray ------ Flares ------ # Flux Sunspot 10E-6 New Mean Bkgd X-Ray Optical # Date 10.7cm Number Hemis. Regions Field Flux C M X S 1 2 3 #--------------------------------------------------------------------------- 2009 07 10 68 13 60 0 -999 A0.0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 2009 07 11 68 0 0 0 -999 A0.0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 2009 07 12 68 0 0 0 -999 A0.0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 2009 07 13 67 0 0 0 -999 A0.0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 2009 07 14 67 0 0 0 -999 A0.0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 2009 07 15 67 0 0 0 -999 A0.0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 2009 07 16 67 0 0 0 -999 A0.0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 2009 07 17 66 0 0 0 -999 A0.0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 2009 07 18 67 0 0 0 -999 A0.0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 2009 07 19 68 0 0 0 -999 A0.0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 2009 07 20 68 0 0 0 -999 A0.0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 2009 07 21 68 0 0 0 -999 A0.0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 2009 07 22 68 0 0 0 -999 A0.0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 2009 07 23 68 0 0 0 -999 A0.0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 2009 07 24 68 0 0 0 -999 A0.0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 2009 07 25 69 0 0 0 -999 A0.0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 2009 07 26 68 0 0 0 -999 A0.0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 2009 07 27 68 0 0 0 -999 A0.0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 2009 07 28 69 0 0 0 -999 A0.0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 2009 07 29 68 0 0 0 -999 A0.0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 2009 07 30 68 0 0 0 -999 A0.0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 2009 07 31 69 0 0 0 -999 A0.0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 2009 08 01 68 0 0 0 -999 A0.0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 2009 08 02 68 0 0 0 -999 A0.0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 2009 08 03 67 0 0 0 -999 A0.0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 2009 08 04 66 0 0 0 -999 A0.0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 2009 08 05 66 0 0 0 -999 A0.0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 2009 08 06 67 0 0 0 -999 A0.0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 2009 08 07 68 0 0 0 -999 A0.0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 2009 08 08 67 0 0 0 -999 A0.0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
While it is possible that we’ll see a 30 day stretch of days with no sunspots, we have yet to complete a calendar month without a sunspot.
A year ago in August 2008, we initially had completed a sunspotless calendar month. But, as fate would have it, that distinction was snatched away at the very last moment by the folks in Belgium at SIDC based on one sketch of a plage cum sunspeck from Catainia observatory in Italy.
As Carly Simon once fabulously sung:
I know nothing stays the same
But if youre willing to play the game
Its coming around again
TJA (09:56:07) :
I know there were volcanoes at that time. It just seems a fine coincidence that the event also happened at an extremely low spot in the sunspot cycle. To write it all off to volcanoes just seems like so much hand waving to me.
That ‘extremely low’ point was actually in 1810 and not in 1816, which was a sunspot maximum year [albeit a weak maximum].
Catania, only and always and forever Catania…
They have a super-eyes and see what others can’t see—
It’s would appear to me that the Jet stream(s) decides world temp. Figure out what drive this and you will find your answer.
I wonder what this winter will be like.
BTW, now “climate change” is a national security issue… http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/32344842/ns/technology_and_science-the_new_york_times/
As long as Sunspots Counts are used instead of Sunspot Measurements, no good progress is going to be made as regards Solar influence of Global Climate.
Use the right tool for the job.
Spots from cycle to cycle are known to vary, and the number of very small spots in groups increased steadily from 1920 onwards.
Ask Observatorie de la Paris, they are the ones who state it.
Wolf’s scheme is arbitrary, based on statistics that he had no idea could change. Every last single measurement of activity on the Sun changes with regards to the others. Umbra to Penumbra, Umbra to Faculae, Faculae to Network, Whole Spot to Flux, etc, etc.
When these spots are measured as to thier size, intensity (umbra-penumbra) and longevity, then plotted out, it is clearly evident that there is a background of sub-spotting going on. This is to be expected. There is simply no marked boundary when it comes to sunspots fading off into the millions of pores. Neither is there a set intensity of umbra fading off into the Penumbra.
What is really amazing to me is that this has been know for the better part of a hundred years, yet the stumbling block is still tripped over.
Oh well.
Some of us see the problem solved via measurement against standards.
i.e – measurement first, count derived from measurement.
The resulting counts will then take care of themselves, rather than the other way around.
Geoff Sharp (07:45:59) :
As Gore showed us (incorrectly via his statements) CO2 lags temp by about 800 years. The oceans store the suns energy and time is required to equalize. Dont expect reduced solar activity to have an over night effect
As shown by Svensmark in “The Chilling Stars” p.77 the GCR low peak was about 1991.2 and big el Nino it was in 1997-1998, six years lag. Oulu Neutron monitor GCR count above 10% from 2008.6 on, so, plus six years=2014.
And, according to FAO´s LOD graph, lowest will be at 2020:
http://www.giurfa.com/fao_temps.jpg
Leif Svalgaard (09:17:55) :If this relationship is valid, then the extra long length of Cycle 23… Except, it is not valid. If there is a relationship [there is no statistically valid one], it is the other way around:
Your enclosed URL did not work, would you be so kind to resend this to web site to us?
http://www.leif.org/research/Cycle%20Length%20Temperature%20Correlation.pdf
In addition, would be so kind to discuss this chart that indicates a direct relationship between solar cycle length and global temperartures?
http://www.global-warming-and-the-climate.com/images/sunspot-lenght-&-teperature.gif
Leif Svalgaard (09:17:55) : The direct relationship shows the longer the solar sunspot cycle, the colder global temperatures.
If this relationship is valid, then the extra long length of Cycle 23
Except, it is not valid. If there is a relationship [there is no statistically valid one], it is the other way around:
This web site do not work, would you be so kind to send it to us again?
http://www.leif.org/research/Cycle%20Length%20Temperature%20Correlation.pdf
In addition, would you be so kind to discuss your understanding to this chart that seems to show a direct relationship with temps vs. cycle length?
http://www.global-warming-and-the-climate.com/images/sunspot-lenght-&-teperature.gif
Thanks,
Yep, now you did it … RA will get even shortly.
Trying to convince people that the Universe is far more powerful than mankind, what a waste of time — hah, you should be ashamed of yourself.
I wish some one would make up their mind. Is my lemon tree going to freeze
again this winter or not?
“which was a sunspot maximum year [albeit a weak maximum].” – Leif
You are right of course, I was sloppy, but it was the among the weakest maximums seen outside of the Maunder, which is what I should have said.
tarpon (11:11:23) :
Trying to convince people that the Universe is far more powerful than mankind, what a waste of time
That is EGOCENTRISM VS. HELIOCENTRISM
How inconmesurably fool and greedy they are. Noble people can be poor but never quit their beliefs. They have sold their souls, will they be able to bear the Maunder Minimums we all face when old?
Gary from Chicagoland (11:02:50) :
This web site do not work, would you be so kind to send it to us again?
http://www.leif.org/research/Cycle%20Length%20Temperature%20Correlation.pdf
I just tried it. Works fine. If you have trouble perhaps go to http://www.leif.org/research ; at bottom click on ‘list of files’ and try some, especially the one with ‘Cycle Length Temperature ….
In addition, would you be so kind to discuss your understanding to this chart that seems to show a direct relationship with temps vs. cycle length?
http://www.leif.org/EOS/2004EO390005.pdf
does it best.
My plot [in the URL that you couldn’t go to for some reason] compares the solar cycle lengths [as directly ‘observed’ without any dubious smoothing]. You can define the length in two ways: from min to min or from max to max; my graph does both and plots the length so determined at the midpoint of the intervals [blue curves]. The temperatures are HADCRU anomaly averages for the same intervals [pink curve]. There is clearly no correlation between the pink and the blue curves. Because there is a large trend [called Global Warming], one could try to remove that trend and see how if one can recover a correlation. The result is the green curves, and they might show a very weak [an not statisitically significant] correlation in the sense shown: longer cycle, warmer temps. But, as I said, this finding is not significant, and the concept of solar cycle ‘length’ itself is dubious because cycles have significant overlap.
I suppose it is possible that sunspot counts during the Maunder and Dalton minimums were artificially low due to the fact that low solar activity made observation more difficult due to increased cloudiness? Naah!
Another possible factor in the cold wet summers around 1816 in Europe was the fact that it probably was around the peak of the burning of the North American forest for potash (the main cash crop in the early US). Once Britain’s hand was removed holding settlers back, the forests west to the Mississippi were leveled and nearly all hardwoods were burned for the ashes, which were sold to “Asheries”, which converted them to potash for sale in Europe.
Kath (10:36:59) :
A lot of people, millions across the USA, are wondering what winter will be like in light of thier failed gardens and wimpy summer.
There are parts of science that are attempting to provide guidance and answer thier questions in the midst of the tumult.
About the only thing they missed in that National Security Assessment is that some of the North Polar Icecap may be finding a new home…. Canada. Inquire at the nearest Laurentide Ice Sheet office. Parts of Alaska are excepted. Just don’t try to drive the Alcan Highway when it’s buried under hundreds of feet of ice & snow.
Naah! There were too many observers and too many detailed accounts/drawings when Sunspots did appear in the Maunder. Eddy buried that hatchet with great force.
TJA (11:26:52) :
You are right of course, I was sloppy, but it was the among the weakest maximums seen outside of the Maunder, which is what I should have said.
The cycle before was just as weak and cycle 14 almost as weak. So I think you better go with the volcanoes…
It seems to me that I would be more interested in seeing the “Cumulative” sunspot count over say a 10 year period, and then a 20 year period than just this year’s. And, I don’t mean, “min to min,” or “max to max.”
Obviously, any solar effect would have to be gradual, and “cumulative.”
At least, that’s how it seems to me.
Ice choking the Northwest Passage….In both the wider, deep-water northern corridor and the narrower, shallower southern branches of the passage, the Canadian Ice Service says pockets of more extensive winter freezing and concentrations of thicker, older ice at several key “choke points” are complicating ship travel
http://www.americanthinker.com/blog/2009/08/ice_choking_the_northwest_pass.html
Chances are that the next minimum will provoke the extintion of the species anthropopithecus thermophilus fanatikoides
Kath (10:36:59) :
I wonder what this winter will be like.
According to observations of the Gulf Stream, I would expect for West Europe’s winter to be slightly warmer of 2008-9 and the North American (Canada and USA) Atlantic coastal environs colder of the same.
Kum Dollison (12:28:56) :
Obviously, any solar effect would have to be gradual, and “cumulative.”
Like from day to day or from month to month? After a year, we are back to where we started. Same with after a solar cycle.
Thanks for featuring the sun’s image prominently. Please could you do it on a regular basis as it reminds me to clean my laptop screen (to avoid false sunspots).
“So I think you better go with the volcanoes…”
I am holding out on that one. It seems like volcanoes appear whenever they are needed to explain this or that, their effects are estimated, then fed into the models.
I have suspended judgement for at least five more years on this whole matter. I am just trying out hypotheses and watching for now. I am a skeptic, not a denier.