While NOAA is lowering forecasts, the Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) from FSU COAPS is also quite low. Ryan Maue’s Tropical web page at Florida State University has this graph that shows accumulated cyclone energy (ACE) :
Sorted monthly data: Text File Note where 2009 is in the scheme of things. More here.
NOAA Lowers Hurricane Season Outlook, Cautions Public Not to Let Down Guard
August 6, 2009
Animation of El Niño in Pacific.
El Niño animation (Credit: NOAA)
According to its August Atlantic hurricane season outlook, NOAA now expects a near- to below-normal Atlantic hurricane season, as the calming effects of El Niño continue to develop. But scientists say the season’s quiet start does not guarantee quiet times ahead. The season, which began June 1, is entering its historical peak period of August through October, when most storms form.
“While this hurricane season has gotten off to quiet start, it’s critical that the American people are prepared in case a hurricane strikes,” said Commerce Secretary Gary Locke.
NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center, a division of the National Weather Service, now predicts a 50 percent probability of a near-normal season, a 40 percent probability of a below-normal season, and a 10 percent probability of an above-normal season. Forecasters say there is a 70 percent chance of seven to 11 named storms, of which three to six could become hurricanes, including one to two major hurricanes (category 3, 4 or 5).
The main change from the May outlook is an increased probability of a below-normal season, and an expectation of fewer named storms and hurricanes. The May outlook called for nine to 14 named storms, of which four to seven could become hurricanes, including one to three major hurricanes. During an average season, there are 11 named storms with winds of at least 39 mph, of which six become hurricanes with winds of 74 mph or greater and two of those become major hurricanes with winds of 111 mph or higher.
In recent weeks, forecasts for the return of El Niño – warmer than normal waters along the equatorial central and eastern Pacific Ocean – have come to fruition.
“El Niño continues to develop and is already affecting upper-level atmospheric pressure and winds across the global tropics,” said Gerry Bell, Ph.D., lead seasonal hurricane forecaster at NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center. “El Niño produces stronger upper-level westerly winds over the Caribbean Sea and tropical Atlantic Ocean, which help to reduce hurricane activity by blowing away the tops of growing thunderstorm clouds that would normally lead to tropical storms.”
“El Niño may mean fewer storms compared to recent seasons, but it doesn’t mean you can let your guard down,” said Jack Hayes, Ph.D., director of NOAA’s National Weather Service. “History shows that hurricanes can strike during an El Niño.” Some examples include Betsy in 1965, Camille in 1969, Bob in 1991, Danny in 1997 and Lili in 2002.
Even though El Niño tends to decrease the number of storms, other climate factors may help to create some storms. As predicted in May, conditions associated with the high-activity era that began in 1995 are in place, and include enhanced rainfall over west Africa and warmer tropical Atlantic Ocean water, which favor storm development.
The calm start to this hurricane season is not a reliable indicator of the overall activity for the entire season. The 1992 Atlantic hurricane season, for example, had a below-normal number of named storms and hurricanes. The first storm did not form until late August, when Hurricane Andrew hit southern Florida as a destructive Category 5 storm.
Hurricane Andrew slams into South Florida in August 1992 during a hurricane season that began late.
High resolution (Credit: NOAA)
“These outlooks are extremely valuable when determining cycles and trends for the season, however they don’t tell us when the next storm will occur or where it may strike,” said FEMA administrator Craig Fugate. “It only takes one storm to put a community at risk. That is why we need to take action and prepare ourselves and our families before the next storm hits, including developing a family disaster plan. By taking a few simple steps now we can help ensure that we are better prepared and that our first responders are able to focus on our most vulnerable citizens.”
Predicting where and when a storm may hit land depends on the weather conditions in place at the time the storm approaches. Therefore NOAA’s seasonal outlook, which spans multiple months, does not include landfall projections. But once a storm appears to be forming, NOAA’s National Hurricane Center will issue track and intensity forecasts.
NOAA understands and predicts changes in the Earth’s environment, from the depths of the ocean to the surface of the sun, and conserves and manages our coastal and marine resources.
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Pierre Gosselin (02:37:23) :
“Ask them where the ACE is!”
As I understand it it isn’t anywhere. It seems to me that “ACE” is a severe misnomer as the “E” does not “A”. See [url]http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Accumulated_cyclone_energy[/url][tag]here[/tag] for the definition.
Colder oceans=Less hurricanes
Loehle, Craig. 2009. Cooling of the global ocean since 2003. Energy & Environment 20(1&2): 99-102.
Ocean heat content data from 2003 to 2008 (4.5 years) were evaluated for trend. A trend plus periodic (annual cycle) model fit with R2 = 0.85. The linear component of the model showed a trend of -0.35 (±0.2) x 1022 Joules per year. The result is consistent with other data showing a lack of warming over the past few years.
http://www.ncasi.org/publications/Detail.aspx?id=3152
Pierre Gosselin (02:37:23) : “Tom in Fla., Please write to your insurance company and tell them you don’t appreciate the baseless fear tactics that they irresponsibly use. Ask them where the ACE is!”
Unfortunately wind insurance is not an free market. The insurance companies go to the State regulators for an increase in premiums using the stated reasons of global warming. It is the State regulators that fall prey to the religion of Hansen, Schmidt et al and base their rate hike approval on the bogus agruments from the bogus models. It would be a miracle if, using the insurance company’s own argument in reverse, they would reduce my premiums now that hurricane losses have been less than expected.
You can drink the ponding water on top of melting Arctic ice because it is fairly free of salt. Arctic animals do this. You cannot drink Arctic water because it is too salty. But when it freezes, the salt is left behind. That process is one of the reasons why salt water freezes into salt free ice at a lower temperature than salt-free water.
Has anyone but me noticed that the Colorado State tropical predictions used to feature Dr William Gray’s name prominently, but since he’s spoken up against the AGW religion, his name disappeared from the story? Is he no longer the “respected expert” that they once said he was when reporting the annual forecast?
acementhead (13:27:08) :
Yeah, it’s a so-so term. Energy can be integrated, so ICE (Integrated
Cyclonic Energy would be better but for the unfortunate name. Maybe
TCE (Total…). HED (Hurricane Energy Days) would link to HDD
(Heating Degree Days) or my SDD (Snow Depth Days).
What would you suggest?
Desalination by freezing seawater, then melting the ice, has been known and used (sometimes) for many years. It works quite well, but is expensive due to high electricity costs to run the refrigeration machines.
See pg. 32 of this report:
http://www.sandia.gov/water/docs/MillerSAND2003_0800.pdf
Thanks for the replies. It was something i hadn’t ever thought about!
IanM (10:27:08) : The semiconductor analogy is a good one.
Pamela Gray (14:33:26) : If I ever work in the Arctic, I know where to get my fresh water now. But I will keep an eye out for the polar bears and let them go first.
Roger Sowell (15:58:12) : That’s an interesting desalination method.
I am no high and mighty climate ‘scientist’ like the esteemed AlGore, just a lowly mechanical engineer with 30 years of IR, UV, and XRay energy transfer machine design and experience. The sun is on low output, the hurricanes are less…pretty simple. Really, really simple. This is what I learned in my junior year in college. Too bad I didn’t sell out to the government, I could be a rich as AlGore.
Jukin, please supply a measurement data set of “the sun is on low output”.
Just though of something. Will we be pouring over weather maps of the Atlantic ocean counting days without a cell and arguing over the size of a swirling spot of clouds? Will we be coming up with new terms for tiny cells? Will we have arguments back and forth about what constituted a hurricane back in the day and what is called a hurricane today? Will we be calling for long underwear if hurricanes go to sleep????
Ric Werme (14:59:19) :
What would you suggest?
I don’t have a really good suggestion because I don’t know to what use the “information” is put. I don’t see any predictive value no matter what is done. Just looks like stamp collecting to me. The more numbers that climatologists have to play with the more “work” for climatologists.
My point which I expressed poorly(or maybe not at all for most people) is that no energy is being stored up, “accumulated”, available for future release, as it is in, say, a hydraulic accumulator in a hydraulic system.
” Pierre Gosselin (02:37:23) :
Tom in Fla.
Please write to your insurance company and tell them you don’t appreciate the baseless fear tactics that they irresponsibly use. Ask them where the ACE is!”
Not all is scare tactics. More, and more expensive, homes are being built on the shore, so the damage increases even if the number of the hurricanes do not. And the people living further away from the sea do not like to help pay for the others. Well, Travis McGee warned us a quarter of a century ago.
Looking at the current SST’s for Nino-and he appears to be croaking-any comments?
http://www.osdpd.noaa.gov/ml/ocean/sst/anomaly.html
October may be the last call for EL Nino…
Alexej Buergin (05:28:14) : “Not all is scare tactics. More, and more expensive, homes are being built on the shore, so the damage increases even if the number of the hurricanes do not. And the people living further away from the sea do not like to help pay for the others. Well, Travis McGee warned us a quarter of a century ago.”
Two things, I have no problem with insurance companies temporarily increasing premiums to cover ACTUAL losses from a bad storm season. Afterall, law requires them to keep certain liquid reserves. What I have a problem with is the use of bogus AGW claims to rip me off and have uneducated politicians jump on the band wagon.
Second, those that take the risk and continue to build along the coast should pay more as they are more at risk. My problem is that my costs were just fine until the insurance companies found a wonderful “bogeyman” that they could tie a rate increase to. It’s the part about “potential future losses” based on bad science that gauls me to death.