While NOAA is lowering forecasts, the Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) from FSU COAPS is also quite low. Ryan Maue’s Tropical web page at Florida State University has this graph that shows accumulated cyclone energy (ACE) :
Sorted monthly data: Text File Note where 2009 is in the scheme of things. More here.
NOAA Lowers Hurricane Season Outlook, Cautions Public Not to Let Down Guard
August 6, 2009
Animation of El Niño in Pacific.
El Niño animation (Credit: NOAA)
According to its August Atlantic hurricane season outlook, NOAA now expects a near- to below-normal Atlantic hurricane season, as the calming effects of El Niño continue to develop. But scientists say the season’s quiet start does not guarantee quiet times ahead. The season, which began June 1, is entering its historical peak period of August through October, when most storms form.
“While this hurricane season has gotten off to quiet start, it’s critical that the American people are prepared in case a hurricane strikes,” said Commerce Secretary Gary Locke.
NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center, a division of the National Weather Service, now predicts a 50 percent probability of a near-normal season, a 40 percent probability of a below-normal season, and a 10 percent probability of an above-normal season. Forecasters say there is a 70 percent chance of seven to 11 named storms, of which three to six could become hurricanes, including one to two major hurricanes (category 3, 4 or 5).
The main change from the May outlook is an increased probability of a below-normal season, and an expectation of fewer named storms and hurricanes. The May outlook called for nine to 14 named storms, of which four to seven could become hurricanes, including one to three major hurricanes. During an average season, there are 11 named storms with winds of at least 39 mph, of which six become hurricanes with winds of 74 mph or greater and two of those become major hurricanes with winds of 111 mph or higher.
In recent weeks, forecasts for the return of El Niño – warmer than normal waters along the equatorial central and eastern Pacific Ocean – have come to fruition.
“El Niño continues to develop and is already affecting upper-level atmospheric pressure and winds across the global tropics,” said Gerry Bell, Ph.D., lead seasonal hurricane forecaster at NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center. “El Niño produces stronger upper-level westerly winds over the Caribbean Sea and tropical Atlantic Ocean, which help to reduce hurricane activity by blowing away the tops of growing thunderstorm clouds that would normally lead to tropical storms.”
“El Niño may mean fewer storms compared to recent seasons, but it doesn’t mean you can let your guard down,” said Jack Hayes, Ph.D., director of NOAA’s National Weather Service. “History shows that hurricanes can strike during an El Niño.” Some examples include Betsy in 1965, Camille in 1969, Bob in 1991, Danny in 1997 and Lili in 2002.
Even though El Niño tends to decrease the number of storms, other climate factors may help to create some storms. As predicted in May, conditions associated with the high-activity era that began in 1995 are in place, and include enhanced rainfall over west Africa and warmer tropical Atlantic Ocean water, which favor storm development.
The calm start to this hurricane season is not a reliable indicator of the overall activity for the entire season. The 1992 Atlantic hurricane season, for example, had a below-normal number of named storms and hurricanes. The first storm did not form until late August, when Hurricane Andrew hit southern Florida as a destructive Category 5 storm.
Hurricane Andrew slams into South Florida in August 1992 during a hurricane season that began late.
High resolution (Credit: NOAA)
“These outlooks are extremely valuable when determining cycles and trends for the season, however they don’t tell us when the next storm will occur or where it may strike,” said FEMA administrator Craig Fugate. “It only takes one storm to put a community at risk. That is why we need to take action and prepare ourselves and our families before the next storm hits, including developing a family disaster plan. By taking a few simple steps now we can help ensure that we are better prepared and that our first responders are able to focus on our most vulnerable citizens.”
Predicting where and when a storm may hit land depends on the weather conditions in place at the time the storm approaches. Therefore NOAA’s seasonal outlook, which spans multiple months, does not include landfall projections. But once a storm appears to be forming, NOAA’s National Hurricane Center will issue track and intensity forecasts.
NOAA understands and predicts changes in the Earth’s environment, from the depths of the ocean to the surface of the sun, and conserves and manages our coastal and marine resources.
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Why is it that NOAA and the UK’s Met Office are both useless at predicting seasonal weather events?
It looks like the melting has actually stopped way early
http://arctic-roos.org/observations/satellite-data/sea-ice/observation_images/ssmi_ice_ext.png
very doubtful that melt will be greater than 2008 and in fact may jump right back to normal or even above re sun activity. As one person above said the return to normal of NH 2009-2010 is likely to wipe out the AGW thing maybe this year!
OT, but very interesting I think:
‘Consensus’ Takes Another Hit! More than 60 German Scientists Dissent Over Global Warming Claims! Call Climate Fears ‘Pseudo ‘Religion’; Urge Chancellor to ‘reconsider’ views ‘Growing body of evidence shows anthropogenic CO2 plays no measurable role’
Tuesday, August 04, 2009By Marc Morano – Climate Depot
http://www.climatedepot.com/a/2282/Consensus-Takes-Another-Hit-More-than-60-German-Scientists-Dissent-Over-Global-Warming-Claims-Call-Climate-Fears-Pseudo-Religion-Urge-Chancellor-to-reconsider-views
Tom in Fla
Not that insurance companies have any financial interest in catastrophic scenarios.
J. Bob & rbateman,
Arctic summer temps play only a minor role on ice melting. More important is the extent of the preceding wintertime freezing, summertime wind patterns and summertime arctic water temps. Looking only at the summertime air temp to guesstimate ice melt will get you nowhere. It really is far more complex than that.
Sea Ice experts”, like hurricane experts; could also be way off. Projections from 16 experts:
http://www.arcus.org/search/seaiceoutlook/2009_outlook/july_report/downloads/pdf/panarctic/2009_seaiceoutlook_july_full-report.pdf
Most predicted levels below 08! Unless something dramatic happens, it looks to me like they will be wrong.
I think too many of these “experts” believe in AGW, and thus their projections are skewed.
Tom in Fla.
Please write to your insurance company and tell them you don’t appreciate the baseless fear tactics that they irresponsibly use. Ask them where the ACE is!
“nofreewind (17:22:07) :
100 yrs of US Major Hurricane Index (Saffir 3-5)
http://nofreewind.com/files/us_major_hurricanes.jpg
notice the 1st half of the 20th Century was more active than later half, although 2005-06 were big years.”
The reporting is much better now thanks to satellites. In the 1920s, when the eye of a hurricane went right over Miami, people died because they did not know the back wall was coming, too. I would assume that many storms that just made the curve in the middle of the Atlantic were never reported, and the force of a storm was only registered at landfall (even if it was stronger at sea). Strengthens your point.
“Joseph (14:28:51) :
It has been very wet in central Florida this summer. The lakes are back full and we do not need a rain maker.”
How about the aquifer? Is there information anywhere on the net about the amount of water there?
Better not contradict the NOAA. According to Nancy Pelosi, as of this morning all dissent is “un-american.”
There is some cloud formation neer the coas of west afrika.
Jesse (19:23:55) :
“Okay, I’m pretty dumb about all this stuff but something is bothering me. It has been cooling for the last few years (atmosphere and oceans) yet the Arctic ice cap may reach very low levels. The data, if correct, seems to be contradictory. Can anyone help me understand why this is happening? I’m gonna take some harrassment tomorrow and I need a sensible come-back. Thanks.”
Just to reinforce the other posts, the current ice extent: http://www.ijis.iarc.uaf.edu/en/home/seaice_extent.htm
show 2009 currently the 4th highest in the last 5 years. It’s higher than 2008, 2007 (by a lot), and 2005. Don’t let the bastards wear you down!
I’ve been watching the extent this year via JAXA and July showed a steep drop akin to 2007 but the overall track this summer has been more like 2005. Based on following the sea ice threads on CA it seems that currents can play a big role in the melt due to the ice being forced out of the Arctic basin into the Atlantic. My conclusion is that either catastrophic melt or major recovery isn’t going to happen. The spin will be that 2009 is the third or maybe fourth lowest extent (even though that may be signaling the recovery of the ice).
crosspatch (21:19:45) :
Air temperature really doesn’t mean much.
Air temperature doesn’t mean as much as water temperature does.
OK, then what cools the water? You might say that air temp is a necessary but not sufficient condition for sea ice formation.
I heard that Lake Superior fishing is poor this year, water to cold.
crosspatch (00:46:10) wrote:
“The Arctic above 80 degrees Latitude is back to freezing again.”
Sea water freezes at about -3C or so.
The ice that is melting is presumably close to pure water, since the salt gets squeezed out in freezing. So the air temperature should be of importance regarding melting since the ice shold melt at or close to 0°C. As for refreezing, then the salt content and the -3°C freezing point would come into play. That’s the way I see it, anyway.
IanM
Looks like NYC will hit 90° today. What a pity – must be global warming.
http://www.accuweather.com/us/ny/new-york/10001/forecast-15day.asp?partner=accuweather&traveler=1&zipchg=1&metric=0
There is actually much less melt ponding this year than last:
In fact, it might be snowing:
http://www.arctic.noaa.gov/latest/noaa1.jpg
For an agency that alleges to “understand” everything, these predictions appear to be simply numerology plus fervor. I don’t see any justification for any predictions other than statistical, which is a ridiculous way to “predict” anything.
Again, if they “understand” everything, we should be seeing real justification rather than just spouting numbers and averages.
IanM (07:58:59) :
You made me think of a question. Is the ice in the Arctic Ocean fresh water ice or is it salt water ice? Is some of it fresh water ice? Is all of it fresh water ice?
If I was to freeze some salt water in my fridge, it would be salt water ice – I think – but that would be a closed system. What happens in an open system like an ocean?
crosspatch (08:20:58) :
http://www.arctic.noaa.gov/latest/noaa1.jpg
That looks like Aberdeen (Scotland) in the summer! In fact, it looks like landing in a plane at Aberdeen airport in the summer!
I am hearing “chatter” in many locations that seem to indicate that the current el nino might already be waning. This animation is interesting and shows that not only are sea surface temperatures dropping along the Western Hemisphere coast but notice how far North the warm water is compared to a “normal” el nino event.
rbateman (22:31:43) :
Don’t try to run your sailboat in the Northwest Passage. There isn’t a passage this year.
http://www.ijis.iarc.uaf.edu/seaice/extent/AMSRE_Sea_Ice_Extent.png
Check at Cyrosphere Today: You might sneak on past the NorthEast passage along Siberia.
Better check with Putin first, though.
Too late, these people are trying to sail around the north pole in one season:
(Norwegian: “Kan bli de første i historien. Skal seile rundt Nordpolen på én sesong”)
Can be the first in history
Will sail around the North Pole in a single season
http://www.seilmagasinet.no/id/31957.0
You can follow the GPS signal here
http://share.findmespot.com/shared/faces/viewspots.jsp?glId=0sh4D6qB4SbUlL8PQTx67P76naNiL79ys
Blog (norwegian). Ice spotted today.
http://trondaasvoll.seilmagasinet.no/
Looking at the chart seems like an eleven year periodicity. I wonder if the current minimum will change the future look of the chart.
Jimmy Haigh (08:53:31) wrote:
IanM (07:58:59) :
You made me think of a question. Is the ice in the Arctic Ocean fresh water ice or is it salt water ice? Is some of it fresh water ice? Is all of it fresh water ice?
If I was to freeze some salt water in my fridge, it would be salt water ice – I think – but that would be a closed system. What happens in an open system like an ocean?
Jimmy-
Here’s an experiment. Mix up a 3% salt solution and freeze it in an ice cube tray, etc. If everything goes according to theory, you will end up with a thick piece of pure-water ice and a thin layer of concentrated salt water. Given the proper conditions, a freezing liquid will squeeze out the impurities ahead of the “freeze front”. The same process is used to remove impurities from ingots of silicon for semiconductor purposes.
The same thing happens with ice formed in the oceans. The ice is generally pure water ice, though there may be inclusions of the concentrated brine that got trapped in the freezing process. There has to be an open “face’ at which the impurities can be expelled, hence my reference to “proper conditions”.
IanM
TerryBixler (09:31:27) :
It just occurred to me that graphic is for the Northern Hemisphere and not just the North Atlantic.
A quick attempt a finding a better graphic to show the ebb and flow of Atlantic ACE yielded http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/outlooks/hurricane2004/May/figure5.gif . A cleaner version is http://www.safehaven.com/images/to/5364_a.gif from http://www.safehaven.com/article-5364.htm .
Pierre Gosselin (08:13:14) :
Looks like NYC will hit 90° today. What a pity – must be global warming.
http://www.accuweather.com/us/ny/new-york/10001/forecast-15day.asp?partner=accuweather&traveler=1&zipchg=1&metric=0
I’m at my parents place in Cleveland helping my dad recover from surgery. We had that weather here the past two days. Atrocious heat and humidity, but it should be back to more seasonable temperatures after the front passes tonight. It’s a shame we didn’t receive that much rain. Looks like the thunderstorms developed just east of their house before racing off.