While NOAA is lowering forecasts, the Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) from FSU COAPS is also quite low. Ryan Maue’s Tropical web page at Florida State University has this graph that shows accumulated cyclone energy (ACE) :
Sorted monthly data: Text File Note where 2009 is in the scheme of things. More here.
NOAA Lowers Hurricane Season Outlook, Cautions Public Not to Let Down Guard
August 6, 2009
Animation of El Niño in Pacific.
El Niño animation (Credit: NOAA)
According to its August Atlantic hurricane season outlook, NOAA now expects a near- to below-normal Atlantic hurricane season, as the calming effects of El Niño continue to develop. But scientists say the season’s quiet start does not guarantee quiet times ahead. The season, which began June 1, is entering its historical peak period of August through October, when most storms form.
“While this hurricane season has gotten off to quiet start, it’s critical that the American people are prepared in case a hurricane strikes,” said Commerce Secretary Gary Locke.
NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center, a division of the National Weather Service, now predicts a 50 percent probability of a near-normal season, a 40 percent probability of a below-normal season, and a 10 percent probability of an above-normal season. Forecasters say there is a 70 percent chance of seven to 11 named storms, of which three to six could become hurricanes, including one to two major hurricanes (category 3, 4 or 5).
The main change from the May outlook is an increased probability of a below-normal season, and an expectation of fewer named storms and hurricanes. The May outlook called for nine to 14 named storms, of which four to seven could become hurricanes, including one to three major hurricanes. During an average season, there are 11 named storms with winds of at least 39 mph, of which six become hurricanes with winds of 74 mph or greater and two of those become major hurricanes with winds of 111 mph or higher.
In recent weeks, forecasts for the return of El Niño – warmer than normal waters along the equatorial central and eastern Pacific Ocean – have come to fruition.
“El Niño continues to develop and is already affecting upper-level atmospheric pressure and winds across the global tropics,” said Gerry Bell, Ph.D., lead seasonal hurricane forecaster at NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center. “El Niño produces stronger upper-level westerly winds over the Caribbean Sea and tropical Atlantic Ocean, which help to reduce hurricane activity by blowing away the tops of growing thunderstorm clouds that would normally lead to tropical storms.”
“El Niño may mean fewer storms compared to recent seasons, but it doesn’t mean you can let your guard down,” said Jack Hayes, Ph.D., director of NOAA’s National Weather Service. “History shows that hurricanes can strike during an El Niño.” Some examples include Betsy in 1965, Camille in 1969, Bob in 1991, Danny in 1997 and Lili in 2002.
Even though El Niño tends to decrease the number of storms, other climate factors may help to create some storms. As predicted in May, conditions associated with the high-activity era that began in 1995 are in place, and include enhanced rainfall over west Africa and warmer tropical Atlantic Ocean water, which favor storm development.
The calm start to this hurricane season is not a reliable indicator of the overall activity for the entire season. The 1992 Atlantic hurricane season, for example, had a below-normal number of named storms and hurricanes. The first storm did not form until late August, when Hurricane Andrew hit southern Florida as a destructive Category 5 storm.
Hurricane Andrew slams into South Florida in August 1992 during a hurricane season that began late.
High resolution (Credit: NOAA)
“These outlooks are extremely valuable when determining cycles and trends for the season, however they don’t tell us when the next storm will occur or where it may strike,” said FEMA administrator Craig Fugate. “It only takes one storm to put a community at risk. That is why we need to take action and prepare ourselves and our families before the next storm hits, including developing a family disaster plan. By taking a few simple steps now we can help ensure that we are better prepared and that our first responders are able to focus on our most vulnerable citizens.”
Predicting where and when a storm may hit land depends on the weather conditions in place at the time the storm approaches. Therefore NOAA’s seasonal outlook, which spans multiple months, does not include landfall projections. But once a storm appears to be forming, NOAA’s National Hurricane Center will issue track and intensity forecasts.
NOAA understands and predicts changes in the Earth’s environment, from the depths of the ocean to the surface of the sun, and conserves and manages our coastal and marine resources.
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it’s intended to say that there is definitely not a reduction from the average statistical liklihood caused by the current conditions versus other possible conditions but may even be a slight increase in liklihood due to the new conditions that we will get hit. Since we average around 1 hurricane landfall here per decade that puts the base liklihood at 10%. These new conditions may have (as an off the cuff example of the concept I’m trying to convey) may have increased this liklihood to 11% or 12%.
This is NOT the same thing as trying to say that going 11 years without a hurricane landfall here increases the liklihood of one.
History shows we get hit most often by storms names starting with A B or C and that we normally are hit after mid August. That doesn’t mean we will get one this year and it doesn’t mean the next one we get can’t be an H or even a Z name. However, it should be evident – to the extent that the statistic can provide something – that we are most likely to get a hurricane when the conditions are such that favor late season starts – or at least with some conditions that cause late season starts.
“Morakot looks to be a really nasty SOB.”
Cable weather girl today said it wasn’t really a strong storm, just that when it hit Taiwan it stalled and hung around for 24 hours instead of passing through.
“Might be this guy, who I would trust to the end about hurricanes:”
I agree with your sentiment, but it wasn’t him I was thinking of. It was:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/John_Hope_(meteorologist)
100 yrs of US Major Hurricane Index (Saffir 3-5)
http://nofreewind.com/files/us_major_hurricanes.jpg
notice the 1st half of the 20th Century was more active than later half, although 2005-06 were big years.
100 yrs of Atlantic Basin Major Hurricane Index (Saffir 3-5)
http://nofreewind.com/files/atlantic_major_hurricanes.jpg
10yr trend same as in 50’s. There is nothing new under the sun as far as climate goes, except we will now pay per degree, or per 10th of a degree!
Tiny Tim storm naming, even if it only lasts an hour out in the middle of the ocean? Where did they get THAT idea?
The withdrawals must be intense.
Everyone seen this one?
Vast expanses of Arctic ice melt in summer heat
http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20090809/ap_on_re_ca/cn_canada_ice_retreats
TUKTOYAKTUK, Northwest Territories – The Arctic Ocean has given up tens of thousands more square miles (square kilometers) of ice on Sunday in a relentless summer of melt, with scientists watching through satellite eyes for a possible record low polar ice cap.
From the barren Arctic shore of this village in Canada’s far northwest, 1,500 miles (2,414 kilometers) north of Seattle, veteran observer Eddie Gruben has seen the summer ice retreating more each decade as the world has warmed. By this weekend the ice edge lay some 80 miles (128 kilometers) at sea.
“it’s intended to say that there is definitely not a reduction from the average statistical liklihood caused by the current conditions versus other possible conditions”
But the way it was phrased gave the impression that some new information was available that made such a landfall more likely.
The implication here being clearly that there was some INCREASE in probability due to unfold (situation will change) and then it goes on to state that there is a “real possibility that we may have a cat 4 or cat 5 ‘slamming’ in.” There is a “real possibility” that a meteor may come “slamming in” to your living room right now. A cat 5 storm making landfall is quite a rare event. Katrina wasn’t even at cat 5 at landfall. It was a cat 3 storm when it “slammed” in.
Words such as those can be quite (and unnecessarily) alarming to the average person and can even cause some uninformed politicians and business people to take unnecessary actions based on such statements. This can disrupt economies, spike markets in sensitive areas, etc. The language being used is very important.
Observation satellites’ remote sensors will tell researchers in September whether the polar cap diminished this summer to its smallest size on record. Then the sun will begin to slip below the horizon for several months, and temperatures plunging in the polar darkness will freeze the surface of the sea again, leaving this and other Arctic coastlines in the grip of ice. Most of the sea ice will be new, thinner and weaker annual formations, however.
Where is this data? I seem to be seeing a different story at two other sites.
By CHARLES J. HANLEY, AP Special Correspondent Is this guy a complete fraud, liar or what exactly.
“Cable weather girl today said it wasn’t really a strong storm, just that when it hit Taiwan it stalled and hung around for 24 hours instead of passing through.”
Yeah. It dropped EIGHTY inches of rain on Southern Taiwan in some areas. Any way you cut it, nobody is configured to take 80 inches of rain in urban areas.
Steven Hill (17:53:32) : “Everyone seen this one?
Vast expanses of Arctic ice melt in summer heat
http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20090809/ap_on_re_ca/cn_canada_ice_retreats
Where is this data? I seem to be seeing a different story at two other sites.
By CHARLES J. HANLEY, AP Special Correspondent Is this guy a complete fraud, liar or what exactly.”
Perhaps this is worth a post from one of the experts here? Agreed. Would like to see the evidence.
Chris
Norfolk, VA
Don’t tell them, but it looks like the arctic is getting colder. The link at the side has the temperature somewhere around 273K. Which is freezing. Of course, I am of the belief that if the polar bear population tripled than the already high number there is now, the MSM would focus on how climate change is causing polar bears to starve, even though overpopulation causing starvation because of less food. I am convinced that no matter what happens, it will always be worse than last year. It is all about making money and getting more powerful. Nothing does that better today than being scared.
Wade (18:45:41) :
I can see the headline: “overpopulation, caused by man made global warming, causes polar bear mass starvation”.
Who’d be a polar bear? If you don’t drown because all the ice has melted due to global warming, you’ll starve because there are too many polar bears due to global warming.
The predictions in Al Gore’s movie are not panning out.
Okay, I’m pretty dumb about all this stuff but something is bothering me. It has been cooling for the last few years (atmosphere and oceans) yet the Arctic ice cap may reach very low levels. The data, if correct, seems to be contradictory. Can anyone help me understand why this is happening? I’m gonna take some harrassment tomorrow and I need a sensible come-back. Thanks.
Jesse
On the Beaufort scale, that barely qualifies as a strong breeze! Why is it now a named storm?
DaveE.
Jesse (19:23:55),
This is an easy one. If someone harasses you, show ’em this chart: click.
It shows Northern Hemisphere sea ice, Southern Hemisphere sea ice, and Global sea ice. Notice that global ice extent is increasing.
The reason the alarmists only show N.H. sea ice should be obvious.
And for over half a century Antarctica has been cooling: click. That’s why the warmists keep trying to distract, by only pointing to the Arctic. Keep in mind that global warming means global warming.
Smokey (19:34:11) :
This is an easy one. If someone harasses you, show ‘em this chart: click.
Thanks Smokey. That will help a lot.
Jesse
NOAA understands and predicts changes in the Earth’s environment, from the depths of the ocean to the surface of the sun, and conserves and manages our coastal and marine resources.
I look to be the 3rd person to comment on this. Wow!
I’ll buy “NOAA endeavors to understand …”.
Pamela Gray wrote:
“By the way, that NOAA statement at the end of their report is a vision statement. It is how they would like to be thought as. It is what they would like to be. And in truth, I see them as being far more likely to report natural variability as the cause of the day then most other climate involved entities.”
You are far too kind. You don’t put an internal vision statement out for the world in almost every press release. And if it is an external vision statement and they are also claiming to be in the business of putting out objective data, they need to be far more careful with their language. I could probably choke down their ever-present statement at the end of all their press releases if they would say “NOAA seeks to understand . . .” rather than saying “NOAA understands . . .”
Jesse (19:23:55) : Arctic ice cap – it comes and goes.
Go to the top of this page. Scroll down until you see a nice Western Hemisphere in a black square. Below that is a small multi-color chart. Click on that. It shows a one-day-lag in sea ice extent.
For a different view go here:
http://www.ijis.iarc.uaf.edu/cgi-bin/seaice-monitor.cgi?lang=e
The following post with comments is also enlightening:
http://wattsupwiththat.com/2009/04/13/watching-the-2007-historic-low-sea-ice-flow-out-of-the-arctic-sea/#more-7019
Note the term “Arctic Ocean.” Part two of this is ocean. Why anyone would expect it to behave in a non-ocean like manner is a key question. There has been less ice at times and more ice at times. Nothing special is going on.
Arctic average has been below normal this summer:
http://ocean.dmi.dk/arctic/meant80n.uk.php
Does that mean the lower the arctic temperature, the less ice there is?
Air temperature really doesn’t mean much. The arctic ice melts mostly from the bottom up, not from the top down and 5 degrees of air temperature isn’t really going to make as much difference as the amount of sunshine, severity of storms, and wind direction.
If you have a cloudy summer with calm winds or winds that tend to jam the ice against a major continental shield (looks like this year the ice is being jammed against Canada) then you can have more ice with warmer air temperatures. If you get a lot of storms that break the ice up and winds that disperse it or blow it out into the Atlantic past Greenland, then you can have less ice with cooler temperatures. 2007 was an example where you had a lot of sunshine and the worst possible wind currents for conserving ice.
Air temperatures aren’t really going to make that much difference unless there is a HUGE difference. The ice begins to thin as soon as air temperatures begin to rise from their winter minimum. There might be a few meters of ice at -60C but as the temperatures warm, the ice begins to melt from the underside. At -10C air temperature, the ice underneath is probably melting (thinning) at a pretty good rate while the surface is still frozen. If you held it at -5C long enough, you might end up with a thin surface layer of skim ice but a decent storm would break that right up. You could end up losing all the ice without ever reaching the freezing point.
Air temperature doesn’t mean as much as water temperature does.
So NOAA managed the codfish collapse and the red tides?
Steven Hill (17:53:32) :
The Arctic above 80 degrees Latitude is back to freezing again.
http://ocean.dmi.dk/arctic/meant80n.uk.php
Don’t try to run your sailboat in the Northwest Passage. There isn’t a passage this year.
http://www.ijis.iarc.uaf.edu/seaice/extent/AMSRE_Sea_Ice_Extent.png
Check at Cyrosphere Today: You might sneak on past the NorthEast passage along Siberia.
Better check with Putin first, though.
“The Arctic above 80 degrees Latitude is back to freezing again.”
Sea water freezes at about -3C or so.
” Steven Hill (17:53:32) :
Everyone seen this one?
Vast expanses of Arctic ice melt in summer heat..”
We all know that often AP=BS; but Walt Meier’s statement ist quite a disappointment.
Looking at AMSR-E, the 2009 curve has followed the 2008 one astonishingly close, and Meier’s hope for a record low was never really supported by facts. Steve McIntyre at Climate Audit shows that seaice change has been going up an down quite regularly.
(I wonder though if the momentary UPTICK in ice-extend at Nansen is for real).