First let’s get a look at the current NSIDC graph:
and now the JAXA graph:
There’s an interesting news article from Canada that talks about what is being seen in the northwest passage areas.
Ice pockets choking Northern Passage: officials
By Randy Boswell, Canwest News ServiceAugust 1, 2009
excerpts:
Despite predictions from a top U.S. polar institute that the Arctic Ocean’s overall ice cover is headed for another “extreme” meltdown by mid-September, the Environment Canada agency monitoring our northern waters says an unusual combination of factors is making navigation more difficult in the Northwest Passage this year after two straight summers of virtually clear sailing.
…
“In the southern route,” Canadian Ice Service officials told Canwest News Service, the agency “has observed more ice coverage than normal. This is partly due to the fact that the ice in the Amundsen Gulf consolidated this past winter, which is something it didn’t do in 2007 and 2008.”
The result, the agency said, is that ice conditions “are delaying any potential navigability of the Northwest Passage this year. This is opposite to what Environment Canada observed in the last week of July in 2007 and 2008.”
…
Scientists believe the ongoing retreat is being driven by several factors, including rising global temperatures associated with human-induced climate change, and the associated breakup and loss of thicker, multi-year year ice that is being replaced only seasonally by a thin layer of winter ice that disappears quickly each summer.
============
Read the complete news article here
What they still don’t seem to be mentioning is wind patterns.
For example, watch this superb animation done by Jeff Id of The Air Vent:
Here is another video I posted on You Tube last month which shows the flow of sea ice down the east coast of Greenland. Clearly there is more at work here than simple melting, there is a whole flow dynamic going on.
Then read what NASA research has determined. It could explain a lot of what is observed from the news article published by Canwest.
NASA Sees Arctic Ocean Circulation Do an About-Face
PASADENA, Calif. – A team of NASA and university scientists has detected an ongoing reversal in Arctic Ocean circulation triggered by atmospheric circulation changes that vary on decade-long time scales. The results suggest not all the large changes seen in Arctic climate in recent years are a result of long-term trends associated with global warming.
Click for Larger image
It certainly would be nice to see this reported when stories on summer ice melt occur.
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The 2009 line has taken a very interesting turn!
Phil. (16:45:30) :
What makes waves?
Scientists believe the ongoing retreat is being driven by several factors, including rising global temperatures associated with human-induced climate change
Note, the wording.
‘Associated with’, not ‘Caused by’
No mention of CO2 or greenhouse gases, because they know the primary human-induced effect on Arctic ice is soot and aerosols.
So this decodes to – Soot associated with burning fuels which produce CO2 is melting the Arctic ice.
Climate scientists must take special courses in deceptive and misleading wording.
Phil, am I to assume that you have not watched the animations I suggested? The ice does anything but follow the currents in and around the pole. And I only omitted ocean currents so that the Jet stream could be understood. The jet stream is what sets up several wind patterns at the pole from surface to jet height. When I refer to the jet stream, I am referring to the entire wind pattern shown at:
http://squall.sfsu.edu/crws/jetstream.html
When you watch the 30-day ice animation shown at:
http://squall.sfsu.edu/crws/jetstream.html
and then overlay the 30-day ice animation, you will clearly see the connection between wind and ice, not currents and ice. That is not to say that the currents have no affect. But it is less than that of wind.
Google “wind strength in the Fram Strait” for more information on how wind is a very significant factor in sea ice extent, thus area.
On the subject-somewhat OT- of ENSO and SST’s note 8/3/09:
http://www.osdpd.noaa.gov/PSB/EPS/SST/data/anomp.8.3.2009.gif
and then 7/27/09:
http://www.osdpd.noaa.gov/PSB/EPS/SST/data/anomp.7.27.2009.gif
Is it me,or does the apparent Nino appear to be weakening?
Rick W (13:40:19) :
A new Catlin Expedition? http://www.aroundtheamericas.org
“This crossing is testament to the warming of the Arctic Ocean and the global climate changes that the expedition is observing.”
Maybe someone should tell them that we get global climate changes twice a year and it’s all quite normal. The northern half gets warmer over the period from March to September and the southern half colder and then vice versa.
John F. Hultquist (14:31:22) :
Has anyone ever wondered about the choice of years for averages or normals of climatic variables? In case you have but haven’t found the answer, here is one:
“Climatologists define a climatic normal as the arithmetic average of a climate element such as temperature over a prescribed 30-year interval. The 30 year interval was selected by international agreement, based on the recommendations of the International Meteorological Conference in Warsaw in 1933. The 30 year interval is sufficiently long to filter out many of the short-term interannual fluctuations and anomalies, but sufficiently short so as to be used to reflect longer term climatic trends. Currently, the 30-year interval for calculating normals extends from 1971 to 2000.”
30 years is also the probably the average length of a politician’s career…
Douglas, see my earlier post 16:22:43
One item that seems to be missing in the discussion is how accurate is the sea ice area. The following ref. indicates about a 10% ice area error:
http://www.the-cryosphere.net/3/1/2009/tc-3-1-2009.pdf
Other ref. seem to give a similar answers. So one should be careful about reading to much in all those supposedly significant digits.
The older satellite images are even worse. The pixels now compared to back then are like HDTV compared to rabbit ears. This is especially true around the edges where water/ice meets land/snow.
evanmjones (08:20:49) :
why is it that the period of 1979 to 2000 is taken as the average for sea ice, and I think for average global temperatures?
1979 is the first year of reliable satellite measurement.
In my opinion, unless colored maps include the whole data , i.e. the present year too, they are just a public relations tool pushing warming/melting/etc subliminally. If we are talking of the satellite data, then take the whole interval into account. Only in this way will the plots be unbiased and show the highest/lowest variations rationally.
Few people go to the trouble to look at the scales and figure out what is neutral what is dominant. They go with the alarmism implied in the red .
to Declan (16:58:24) :
If canada (which recently
floated several new icebreakers)
currently needs to use 2 or 3 icebreakers
in relays
to smash through sea ice along the Northwest Passage,
to enable hotties to “prove” that
the passage has been cleared of ice by warming–
then canada is, instead,
proving that there currently exists more sea ice now in the passage than existed in the passage
in 1941 to1944 when WITHOUT ANY ICEBREAKERS
the canadian RCMP was zipping back
and forth all the way through
THE ICE FREE PASSAGE FROM PACIFIC
TO ATLANTIC OCEANS
WITH A LEAKY OLD SCOW–
http://www.vancouvermaritimemuseum.com/modules/vmmuseum/treasures/?artifactid=86
http://solarcycle24com.proboards.com/index.cgi?board=globalwarming&action=display&thread=346&page=81#25960
Also, in winter, at minus30 C air temp,
the mixing effect of the
icebreakers in stirring broken cold ice and
wind blowing colder air
into the exposed warmer sea water could possibly
create thicker surface ice, because once a layer
of thinner ice is originally formed, if undisturbed,
it tends to
insulate the warm sea water beneath from the
cold air–you know–like eskimos
protected by an igloo.
For security reasons, canada does not reveal
its icebreaker activitieS in assisting warmers.
RE:
” Squidly (10:35:52) :
Have you ever noticed the colors that the MSM News uses for their forecast maps? Since when did 70F constitute a RED color? Anything over 80F is almost BLACK. It has gotten so ridiculously stupid that the colors mean nothing anymore.”
I am so glad you mentioned this; I’ve been harping on the same thing for a few years now. Great to find a friend.
Wonder what the marketing firm who picked the new colors got paid? Great work if you can get it!
So much for the dynamical models demonstrating any predictive ability.
I’d noticed that about the ENSO/El Nino models as well. They have little or no predictive value.
I haven’t seen anyone do an analysis of this. And of course the model developers gloss over the fact their models are useless by issuing new forecasts every few weeks using current conditions as the new baseline for predictions.
Hi Anthony, I got interested in the global warming hoax after I found out about the taxing scam. Even though I’m new to this I believe you are not reading the graph right.
The ice this year was thinner due to the volume lost during the warming trend of 1979-2000 period, NASA made a big deal out of this. However this year the melting season began rather late, so late that during early May the ice levels almost reached 1979-2000 levels. Why would it take longer for this thinner than average ice to begin heavy melting compared to that of thicker one (1979-2000)? Simply because the enviroment is cooler. We can see the ice started to melt fast once it was well into summer, but this was the thin ice. The remaining thicker ice now is melting at very slow pace and it will hit minimum at 2000-2006 range. I’m confident it will also begin growth season a couple of days earlier than average. The NSIDC graph supports global cooling not global warming.
Robin Kool
Perhaps someone has already answered your question.
I try to get clues from the SST maps available.
This one shows cold water up north with warm pockets:
http://weather.unisys.com/surface/sst_anom.html
And this one from the NOAA shows big hot spots:
http://www.osdpd.noaa.gov/PSB/EPS/SST/climo&hot.html
I’ve grown distrustful of the NOAA graphic (example: see the hot spot near Norway – it’s been there for months!)
I agree with you that air temps are likely a minor factor, with water and wind being the big melt drivers. It would be nice to see a chart with wind directions and strengths for the Arctic. Maybe someone can give a link to one?
MattN
I wrote the Arctic IS warmer than normal (not has been) and WILL remain that way for at least a week. That you can see on the predicted anomaly map for the Canadian Arctic:
http://wxmaps.org/pix/temp2.html
But these are air temps, which, as everyone will probably agree, play a lesser role in driving ice melt.
But so far, at least today, your suspected sustained left turn continues. (Honestly speaking, I’d be the first to cheer if you were right. Than we’d be spared hearing all the silly doom and gloom from the warmists).
anna v (21:14:56) :
The colored National Security warning lights were never green, and never red during the heightened scare yeares after 9/11. After a while, they turned into a big joke. People catch on after a few years of alarmist barrage. They don’t buy it any more. And when they’ve heard enough of it, they find place like this.
Just wait until this winter follows hot on the heels of brief summer.
The screaming will begin shortly.
Bet on it.
ralph ellis (15:34:07) :
“The BBC is a complete joke nowadays – it is called the Biased Broadcasting Corporation. One day, their tax-lifeline will be cut,”
Not while they keep saying what the politicians want said.
But the politicians are a joke too.
The AMSR-E graph appears to have gone back the the 30th July. Is this expected?
Flanagan (11:33:22) :
“It should be emphasized also that a similar “slowdown” was observed in 2007.”
See a straw and clutch at it…
Phil. (17:29:38) :
Get a sense of humour, why don’t you?
You have a tragic case of Cognitive Dissonance pal, but don’t worry too much. We’re used to your sad, quasi-religious sarcasm and when you are ready to drop it, many shall welcome you to the sunny uplands of authentic scientific knowledge.
Until that blessed moment of self fulfillment, you are destined to stumble about, within the imprisoning confines of Gorespeak & Hansenhyperbole.
When the facts change, I change my mind. What do you do, Sir? J. M. Keynes
In general sea ice loss from August 4th to the minimum in mid September averages about 1.5 million sq km.
Using that, we should end up at about 5.3 million sq km.
But the recent years have shown more.
So we’ll end up at about 5 million sq km. More than last year.
No matter what statistical method one applies, that seems about where we will end up. The odds of reaching a new record low are growing longer each passing day. We’re talking 25 to 1 and over odds. Real long shots.
Halfwise (09:51:36) :
Mark Nodine 9:25
Because the tick is a change in calculation methodology specifically to account for meltwater on top of the ice. There is no equivalent event at the end of the melt season that would need a methodology adjustment.
There is, when they switch back to the ‘winter’ algorithm on Oct 15th.
Interesting how appears to have peeked.