First let’s get a look at the current NSIDC graph:
and now the JAXA graph:
There’s an interesting news article from Canada that talks about what is being seen in the northwest passage areas.
Ice pockets choking Northern Passage: officials
By Randy Boswell, Canwest News ServiceAugust 1, 2009
excerpts:
Despite predictions from a top U.S. polar institute that the Arctic Ocean’s overall ice cover is headed for another “extreme” meltdown by mid-September, the Environment Canada agency monitoring our northern waters says an unusual combination of factors is making navigation more difficult in the Northwest Passage this year after two straight summers of virtually clear sailing.
…
“In the southern route,” Canadian Ice Service officials told Canwest News Service, the agency “has observed more ice coverage than normal. This is partly due to the fact that the ice in the Amundsen Gulf consolidated this past winter, which is something it didn’t do in 2007 and 2008.”
The result, the agency said, is that ice conditions “are delaying any potential navigability of the Northwest Passage this year. This is opposite to what Environment Canada observed in the last week of July in 2007 and 2008.”
…
Scientists believe the ongoing retreat is being driven by several factors, including rising global temperatures associated with human-induced climate change, and the associated breakup and loss of thicker, multi-year year ice that is being replaced only seasonally by a thin layer of winter ice that disappears quickly each summer.
============
Read the complete news article here
What they still don’t seem to be mentioning is wind patterns.
For example, watch this superb animation done by Jeff Id of The Air Vent:
Here is another video I posted on You Tube last month which shows the flow of sea ice down the east coast of Greenland. Clearly there is more at work here than simple melting, there is a whole flow dynamic going on.
Then read what NASA research has determined. It could explain a lot of what is observed from the news article published by Canwest.
NASA Sees Arctic Ocean Circulation Do an About-Face
PASADENA, Calif. – A team of NASA and university scientists has detected an ongoing reversal in Arctic Ocean circulation triggered by atmospheric circulation changes that vary on decade-long time scales. The results suggest not all the large changes seen in Arctic climate in recent years are a result of long-term trends associated with global warming.
Click for Larger image
It certainly would be nice to see this reported when stories on summer ice melt occur.
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“With Cambridge Bay roughly 1050nm (nautical miles) due east and still blocked by ice in Amundsen Gulf. We’ll make several stops along the way while waiting for the forecast mid-August breakup.”
…
“This crossing is testament to the warming of the Arctic Ocean and the global climate changes that the expedition is observing.”
“I think this is only a temporary left turn. The Arctic is warmer than normal and is expected to stay that way for the next week.”
Pierre, I don’t know how you can read that graph and see “warmer than normal”. I see the ENTIRE summer in the Arctic being at or below normal. The whole thing.
If you go to the polar webcam site, click to the current data and scroll down to the station drift map you’ll see that the station has moved to lat 85 along the zero azimuth line or about 300 miles. If you look on the current ice extent maps at the Bering sea side of the ice mass and measure from the lat 70 line that comes very close to following the western circumference of the Arctic ocean , except for the small triangle of ice back to the narrows, It appears that the receding front has moved very close to same distance. This would seem to indicate that the whole mass has moved toward Greenland and that melting along the periphery is probably minor contributor to the expanding open water.
The second video definitely shows the power of the wind to move the ice around, but the year to year consistency of the drift paths of the polar webcam stations still leads me to suspect that the transpolar drift current may be the main factor in moving the ice out. There seems to be quite a bit of disagreement about what the actual paths of the various Arctic currents are, but a couple of plots I’ve seen show the TPDC following a path from the narrows of the Bering Strait to just north of Greenland on an arch that lines up quite well with the recurring drift path of the stations. If this path for the current is correct it might also support a potential PDO influence. Of course, I’m just spitballing on most of this and I haven’t even convinced myself yet so like all free advice you should take it for what it’s worth. I forgot to mention, for those of you looking for graphics and animations on this, the DMI webpage has some interesting things including one set that shows vector arrows for the drift patterns in the ice.
Ice floats. Disregarding for the moment oceanic currents, what ice is above the water acts as a sail. It goes where the North wind goes till it gets shoved up against something that doesn’t move so much with the wind. It also goes where the South wind goes till it gets to waters and sunlight that melts it, or it gets to an ice plug and jams up against it. So when the wind blows the ice around instead of out to sea along the Eastern Greenland passage, the ice can jam up and get very thick. All in the space of one season, not multi-year seasons.
This year the jet stream, which is very much a part of the PDO, kept much of the ice stationary where it melted in place (sometimes slowly and sometimes rather quickly), or blew it towards the pole, where it eventually jammed up against the Canadian coastline. There was very little wind that had a southerly direction to it. So here is my take. Thick ice can form not only during the winter, but during the summer as well, resulting in a very thick seed bed for further ice to build on. Therefore, thick ice can return as rapidly as it leaves. If the jet stream remains weak and results in winds pointed towards the pole instead of out of it, the ice will track closer to 2005 or thereabouts, and ice will build like a bugger this winter.
Has anyone ever wondered about the choice of years for averages or normals of climatic variables? In case you have but haven’t found the answer, here is one:
“Climatologists define a climatic normal as the arithmetic average of a climate element such as temperature over a prescribed 30-year interval. The 30 year interval was selected by international agreement, based on the recommendations of the International Meteorological Conference in Warsaw in 1933. The 30 year interval is sufficiently long to filter out many of the short-term interannual fluctuations and anomalies, but sufficiently short so as to be used to reflect longer term climatic trends. Currently, the 30-year interval for calculating normals extends from 1971 to 2000.”
http://www.aos.wisc.edu/~sco/normals.html
Also, here: http://ams.confex.com/ams/pdfpapers/26747.pdf
ps: I re-post this about once a month, or something similar, see above at (09:29:43).
If you want to follow the ice and understand its behavior, overlay the jet stream wind pattern animation over the ice animation. There is a one to one correspondence. Where the wind goes, the ice goes, as long as it is not obstructed from going there.
here are the direct links for a couple of DMI’s better graphics http://ocean.dmi.dk/arctic/icedrift/index.uk.php
http://ocean.dmi.dk/arctic/quikscat/index.uk.php
Since recent scientific research indicates that winds are a much larger driver of polar ice melt than previously understood, then is the current cold summer jet stream that is pumping cooler air into the US Midwest over the Hudson Bay a factor in why the polar ice melt increased during the last two months? The Pineapple Express seems to me to be pushing the warmth northward over Alaska from Hawaii, which is setting up the omega jet stream pattern that is pushing the colder northern air masses southward towards Chicago, IL. Now that the US jet stream pattern is finally breaking the omega pattern that has been in place unusually for almost the entire summer, this will allow the record heat of the US West to slide eastward into the US Midwest. When this happens, I predict a) cooler temperatures in the US West, warmer temperatures in the US Midwest , and c) colder temperatures in northern polar regions that will slow down the 2009 polar ice melt. Notice that I did not include any CO2 factoring into my modeling ; ).
I’m not quite ready to pop the champagne cork yet on a 2009 tracking closely to 2005. Even tho I’ve been predicting exactly that for almost a year now. I’d like to see another two weeks first to confirm the trend of the last couple days.
When pointing the finger of blame at wind/tide, and I mean this when either side does it (AGWers or NatVar types), I think one has to be careful to not be overly facile about it. Wind/tide is better able or less able to have its way with the ice pack depending in part on how healthy the ice pack is in the first place. There is a degree of co-dependancy there.
What’s that spike at the beginning of June?
I wonder how that line would have looked like during the Ice ages…straight line?
>>>Scientists believe the ongoing retreat is being driven
>>>by several factors, including rising global temperatures
>>>associated with human-induced climate change
Sorry, do I read this right?
Open water sailing in the NW Passage in 2007-8 was caused by rising global temperature associated with human-induced climate change. Whereas the NW Passage being completely blocked by ice in 2009 is caused by rising global temperature associated with human-induced climate change.
Is it just me??
.
Some day someone is going to ask “what is that spike at the beginning of June” and one of the staff will explode messily all over the intertubes. 😉
It’s an algorithm adjustment artifact having to do with a seasonal adjustment to the algorithm they use to do the tracking. It has to do with when the melt starts and there is a layer of shiny water on top of ice.
Let me say this again. The wind patterns have been blowing ice together towards the pole and up against the Canadian/Greenland coast. On the few occasions when the wind went South it lasted but a couple of days or was in areas that created ice jams as the ice tried to leave the Arctic. The ice is THICK!!!!! The summer wind has consistently blown it into piles that will not melt quickly. It is not anywhere near being thin. And it probably has not melted all that much. The ice extent and area is measured with the assumption that the ice went South or melted in place. It is my firm belief that it didn’t melt as much as it moved NORTH and created thick jumbled piles, thus taking the extent and area with it. Take a fluffy snowball and compact it. Same amount of snow, just a smaller, harder ball of it. We are near the end of the melt season and we have a compacted ball of ice. That hard ball of ice up there ain’t gonna melt so fast.
>>>However, I saw, yesterday, at Discovery, a program made
>>>by the BBC, which said that, for the first time in history,
>>>polar bears were drowning because of the lack of ice.
The BBC is a complete joke nowadays – it is called the Biased Broadcasting Corporation. One day, their tax-lifeline will be cut, and then we will all cheer wildly as they sink from sight in a mass of red ink. Even then, they still won’t understand.
Raymond Baxter must be turning in his grave.
.
Pamela Gray-wha tmakes me a bit nervous is the Polar Jetstream when westerly, tends to dip more southerly-especially in the Boreal winter.For some reason I do not think the Pac NW is going to be as warm and dry this winter a some think….
“Beluga ships to sail northeast passage”:
http://www.joc.com/node/412702
Gary from Chicagoland (15:04:39) :
Since recent scientific research indicates that winds are a much larger driver of polar ice melt than previously understood, then is the current cold summer jet stream that is pumping cooler air into the US Midwest over the Hudson Bay a factor in why the polar ice melt increased during the last two months? The Pineapple Express seems to me to be pushing the warmth northward over Alaska from Hawaii, which is setting up the omega jet stream pattern that is pushing the colder northern air masses southward towards Chicago, IL. Now that the US jet stream pattern is finally breaking the omega pattern that has been in place unusually for almost the entire summer, this will allow the record heat of the US West to slide eastward into the US Midwest. When this happens, I predict a) cooler temperatures in the US West, warmer temperatures in the US Midwest , and c) colder temperatures in northern polar regions that will slow down the 2009 polar ice melt. Notice that I did not include any CO2 factoring into my modeling ;
Gary, have a look at this article from Jeffid, Air Vent anbout the Arctic Sea Ice Center of Mass: http://noconsensus.wordpress.com/2009/08/01/arctic-sea-ice-center-of-mass/
Forget about the CO2 because it’s not a factor.
Scene: NSIDC offices, October 2, 2008…The 2008 Autumn Arctic Ocean freeze-up has begun.
“Ok, it’s obvious now. It’s not going to happen.”
“Look, we said “greatest chance.” Relax, we’re covered.”
“Hey, we said “ice free” in June.
“Noooo, we said “distinct possibility.” Ok, we didn’t get that, so go with volume.”
“Ya, but you know we never cited volume in either the 2005 or 2007 press releases about record low ice. I mean, we didn’t even go there in 2006. In fact, we’ve always based our press releases on extent.”
“Come on, everyone can see the coverage, but who’s going to argue with the depth? Besides, it’s our data, our methods, who’s gonna prove us wrong?”
‘They’ll say you can’t measure the depth of 4.5 million square km of ice.”
“I don’t care. We need it. Otherwise we sound like alarmists. Besides, ABC’s hacked. They need a headline to cover that stupid June, shill story they did.”
“But we told them “possible”, “chance.” You said that’s enough!”
“Are you kidding? With all those fanatic deniers out there? I don’t have to remind you this financial crisis is drying up all the funding. This is crunch time.”
“Good point (typing), r-e-c-o-r-d l-o-w v-o-l-u-m-e.”
“Aah! Aah! LIKELY record low volume. That keeps us going for a few months at least. Write that up. I’ll look at it after I get back from my golf game.”
“You can’t. It’s snowing.”
“What! In early October!”
This may be off topic but it could also work into the discussion of Arctic ice. I continue to follow ENSO forecasts. The written spin is different than the graphs. To wit and I quote from the weekly NOAA update :
Outlook•A majority of ENSO models indicate El Niño (SST anomalies greater than +0.5°C) will continue to intensify during Northern Hemisphere summer and last through Northern Hemisphere winter 2009-10.•The models disagree on the eventual strength of El Niño (+0.5°C to +2.0°C), but nearly all of the dynamical models predict a moderate-to-strong episode.
But this is what the models really say:
There are 14 dynamical models (kind of like AGW models that take a lot of computing power and are based on hypothetical theories). All of them predict an El Nino EVENT (5 consecutive overlapping three month averages of .5 or better SST anomolies). We just had 4 but then we went down to two consecutive overlapping three month averages that were neutral. So we get to start over again. That means that MJJ, JJA, JAS, ASO, and SON must be at .5 or above in order to change from El Nino “conditions” to “event”. So much for the dynamical models demonstrating any predictive ability.
There are 8 statistical models (simple models based on what has happened before). 3 out of the 8 predict neutral conditions, while the others predict an El Nino event.
The July series and especially the last week of SST’s for July demonstrates a weakening of SST warm temps along the equatorial Pacific. This means that the statistical models, especially the ones that negate an El Nino through the winter, are winning the lottery so far. If I were among the scientists at NOAA and there was a lottery pool on this outcome, I would bet a week’s salary that El Nino conditions are on their last legs.
Winter will be average to cold. Arctic ice will continue to recover. Snow will add to glaciers already on the rebound.
geo (15:11:45) :
tide is better able or less able to have its way with the ice pack depending in part on how healthy the ice pack is in the first place. There is a degree of co-dependancy there.
I don’t know if you’ve seen the quikSCAT animation at DMI that I linked above, If not you will probably find it quite interesting. It’s an ice thickness animation that covers the period from Sept 07 to June 08. What it shows is the for the most part thick ice that remained at the 2007 summer minimum was actually greatly reduced in the process of the freeze up
Sorry I was moving something and accidentally moused the submit button before I was done. As I was saying the thick ice was reduced during freeze up and between Feb and the remainder was torn apart by the Beaufort so that by June there was virtually none remaining. They don’t indicate when an update will be available with the 08-09 sequence, but it should be quite interesting to see what it shows.
Pamela Gray (14:30:44) :
Ice floats.
Yes Pamela, on a fluid a 1000x denser than air and with 9x more volume below the surface than above.
Disregarding for the moment oceanic currents,
Not very wise!
what ice is above the water acts as a sail. It goes where the North wind goes till it gets shoved up against something that doesn’t move so much with the wind. It also goes where the South wind goes till it gets to waters and sunlight that melts it, or it gets to an ice plug and jams up against it. So when the wind blows the ice around instead of out to sea along the Eastern Greenland passage, the ice can jam up and get very thick. All in the space of one season, not multi-year seasons.
This year the jet stream, which is very much a part of the PDO, kept much of the ice stationary where it melted in place (sometimes slowly and sometimes rather quickly), or blew it towards the pole, where it eventually jammed up against the Canadian coastline. There was very little wind that had a southerly direction to it. So here is my take. Thick ice can form not only during the winter, but during the summer as well, resulting in a very thick seed bed for further ice to build on. Therefore, thick ice can return as rapidly as it leaves. If the jet stream remains weak and results in winds pointed towards the pole instead of out of it, the ice will track closer to 2005 or thereabouts, and ice will build like a bugger this winter.
I know you favor the jet stream but I don’t think that’s very relevant to the seaice flow (it’s too high for one thing). You’re mistaken in thinking that there wasn’t much outflow this year, in fact there was so much flow out of the Fram that this spring there was less multiyear ice than last year. Also note the drift of NP 36 which was set up at 82.5N, 174.9E on 7th Sept 2008 and is now at 86.2N, 328.5E having passed close to the pole at 88N, drifting at ~8.5 km/day. The station was set up near the furthest edge of the multiyear ice and yet it is on pace to exit the Fram this fall after drifting ~3000km.
Just a random question, has there ever been a study of the effect of icebreakers on ice levels.
im Cripwell (12:33:41) :
A few weeks ago, the warmaholics made a great deal of fuss, because the 2009 graph crossed the 2008 one. People postulated that this trend would continue, and there would be less ice at minimum this September than there was in 2007. Now, I expect complete silence fromn the warmaholiucs when, on August 5th/6th, 2009 crosses 2008 again, this time the other way. If 2009 continues tracking like 2005, then minimum in 2009 will be about 600,000 sq kms more than 2008, and 1,000,000 sq kms more than 2007. Meaning more multiyear ice in 2010, and a further recovery of the sea ice in the Arctic Basin.
Actually you have it backwards, from about mid-April to June the ‘anti-warmists’ (or whatever you call them) were jumping up and down here proclaiming for example: “Mayday – May Day!” because the extent was exceeding the recent years in the AMSR-E record etc.. Once the current year’s data dropped back below the recent years’ they quietened down now you appear to be heralding their reawakening.
Bill Illis (08:04:17) :
Thanks for the good photo Bill. I always appreciate your photos and videos. You bring out things in photo, video, and in comment too, we would not otherwise see. Thanks for that!