Bob Tisdale writes in with:
What Do You Suppose They’ve Been Doing At The National Hurricane Center This Summer?
http://i27.tinypic.com/im1m2r.gif
Source: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/
Bocce maybe? Horseshoes?
UPDATE – Ryan Maue of Florida State University writes in comments:
Global (Northern Hemisphere) tropical cyclone ACE for the months May – June – July is the lowest in at least the past 30-years or more.
I, for one, am not surprised. Continued inactivity should persist for the next few weeks until the atmosphere catches up with the radiative warming of the tropical oceans due to the season called summer.
2007 was a dud. 2008 was saved from being a record year by 2007. 2009 is behind the pace of both years. Amazing how natural variability affects tropical cyclone formation, tracks, and intensity. Who would have thought?
Ryan’s Tropical web page at Florida State University has this graph that shows accumulated cyclone energy (ACE) :
Sorted monthly data: Text File
Note where 2009 is in the scheme of things.
meant to say On July 1- sorry
I can see the headlines from CNN and UK Telegraph “Man Made Global Warming Causes Calm Hurricane Season”.
Not possible, Al Gore’s movie said there would be big hurricanes! In fact, it’s the cover of the book/movie poster is it not?
It’s about extremes.
AGW is causing extreme calm.
I posted more on the Tips and Notes page at http://wattsupwiththat.com/tips-notes-to-wuwt/
Today is the publication date for the next Phil Klotzbach/Bill Gray hurricane forecast, see it at http://typhoon.atmos.colostate.edu/forecasts/2009/aug2009/aug2009.pdf
They’re expecting 85% of normal for the remainder of the TS season.
Information obtained through July 2009 indicates that the 2009 Atlantic hurricane season will be less active than the average 1950-2000 season due largely to the development of an El Nino. We estimate that 2009 will have about 4 hurricanes (average is 5.9), 10 named storms (average is 9.6), 45 named storm days (average is 49.1), 18 hurricane days (average is 24.5), 2 major (Category 3-4-5) hurricanes (average is 2.3) and 4 major hurricane days (average is 5.0). The probability of U.S. major hurricane landfall and Caribbean major hurricane activity is estimated to be below the long-period average. We expect Atlantic basin Net Tropical Cyclone (NTC) activity in 2009 to be approximately 85 percent of the long-term average. We have decreased our seasonal forecast slightly from early June.