Bob Tisdale writes in with:
What Do You Suppose They’ve Been Doing At The National Hurricane Center This Summer?
http://i27.tinypic.com/im1m2r.gif
Source: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/
Bocce maybe? Horseshoes?
UPDATE – Ryan Maue of Florida State University writes in comments:
Global (Northern Hemisphere) tropical cyclone ACE for the months May – June – July is the lowest in at least the past 30-years or more.
I, for one, am not surprised. Continued inactivity should persist for the next few weeks until the atmosphere catches up with the radiative warming of the tropical oceans due to the season called summer.
2007 was a dud. 2008 was saved from being a record year by 2007. 2009 is behind the pace of both years. Amazing how natural variability affects tropical cyclone formation, tracks, and intensity. Who would have thought?
Ryan’s Tropical web page at Florida State University has this graph that shows accumulated cyclone energy (ACE) :
Sorted monthly data: Text File
Note where 2009 is in the scheme of things.
Why is 2009 not zero?
REPLY: It is Global, and there have been typhoons in the SH. – Anthony
Does Ryan have a ftp site where we can get to the data used to produce his various graphs? I’m not particularly keen on some color choices he makes so I’m wondering…
REPLY: Get some new glasses, or a bigger PC screen, then check right below the graph. – Anthony
Results of September through November still loom… But I am glad the past two years of predicted killer storms (due to AGW) have never happened, or they were so short-lived that they made a difference.
I have flown through many storms on my way to Orlando in the fall season. You never know how and when they will be evil or tame storms. Bottom line Is: I hope for few storms this year. I hope the NOAA and the weather services see a calm ending of this summer.
Does any of this have anything to do with the 1400 page House energy bill? NO.
Does any of this influence opinions of the non-meltdown of the Arctic? No.
Please just hope that there is no “I told you so” extreme weather this late summer or fall to give the AGWers amunition to continue the IPCC fear-mongering and Hansen claims.
Rumor has it that Bill Gates’ initial experiments have been successful. They’re all updating their resumes.
http://wattsupwiththat.com/2009/07/12/bill-gates-to-control-hurricanes/
timetochooseagain (20:47:15) : Okay a see A data file-where does he keep the rest? Not trying to be adversarial, mind you. 🙂
K-Bob (20:33:35) : The Hurricane situation is much more complicated than those few factors! Wind shear is very important for example. Other people are probably better at explaining what the whole business is than me, though.
“mr.artday (15:59:43) :
The jet stream map I see on the Seattle TV weather reports show it turning almost due north out over the Pacific to get around the big high pressure area giving Seattle record high temps this week. Then it makes a 180 and goes almost due south from up in Alaska toward the Gulf coast. So, everybody is right, it’s too far north and too far south.”
When the equatorial air masses contract due to a reduction in energy flow from the oceans the air circulation systems not only move towards the equator but there is much more freedom for the polar air masses to swing north and south during the progression of the jets around the globe.
When the equatorial air masses expand due to an increase in energy flow from oceans to air the polar air masses are squeezed into a narrower path and cannot move north or south as much. Instead the speed of progression around the globe increases.
“actuator (19:54:55) :
This is not very scientific I suppose, but over the years I’ve always looked at the National Hurricane Center website, and determined where the ITCZ is. I then check the GOES satellite IR loop. It seems that most of the time if the ITCZ stays well to the south there are fewer Atlantic hurricanes. As the season heats up into August and September it moves north and then they occur more often. This year it seems to be slower to move north.”
Slower to move away from the equatorial regions because the reduced energy flow from the oceans means smaller equatorial air masses and less expansionary pressure to push the ITCZ poleward. It may be that the strength of the hurricane season is a function of the rate of energy emission from the oceans, the consequent size of the equatorial air masses and the distance they are able to push the global air circulation systems poleward.
It would be the pressure of the equatorial air masses pushing poleward against the resistance of the mid latitude air circulation systems that would dictate the energy available for hurricane formation.
“Bob Tisdale (17:25:12) :
Sam: Shifting the Sunspot Number data four years doesn’t help. One or more of the last three solar cycles will always be out of phase. And then there’s SC20. The ACE is in a league of its own before 1975.
http://i31.tinypic.com/15phhtg.png
Bob Tisdale (15:42:11) :
Stephen Wilde: You wrote, “I’m surprised by how closely that graph above matches the ups and downs of the solar cycles 20 through 23.”
Steve J: You agreed, “I noticed the same thing, but had a hard time believing there was a true relationship since, as you noted, there should be a lag. Definitely something worth looking into.”
You’ve got to plot things. Your eyes are deceiving you. There’s no correlation:
http://i30.tinypic.com/ajrz1d.png
Not even close.”
Thanks, Bob. I was hoping you would do an overlay like that.
However time lags are inherent to the system. What really matters is the similar sine wave on both plots and thy both show a slow decline in the peaks over the period.
Your point about cycle 20 is well made but I would say that my climate description involves a varaible interplay between solar input of shortwave to the oceans and variable rates of release of that energy by the oceans.
So, for cycles 21, 22 and 23 both solar and ocean cycles were in positive warming phases and all we have to contend with is the time lag between the operation of the two cycles (solar and oceanic).
For cycle 20 solar was positive but oceans were negative which gives a more confused signal so what do the plots show ?
For the period 1970 to 1980 the size of the difference between high and low ACE for each year is far more variable than it was during the following 3 cycles when sun and oceans were in phase.
The charts are indeed consistent with a powerful link between solar shortwave inputand ACE. For cycles 21 22 and 23 the magnitudes of the two cycles are similar with a time lag. For cycle 20 the opposing solar and oceanic phases introduce an addition factor namely wider swings in the ACE from year to year.
Now, consider this reply in conjunction with my reply to ‘actuator’ and I think we have something worthy of further investigation.
Jim Clarke (18:38:33) “Operational tropical meteorologists are well aware of this. The academics that try to tie hurricanes to global warming seem to be oblivious.”
Thanks for the insider notes Jim.
I can’t remember who or when but I distinctly remember some climate wizard saying something like “yes we have forcasted record hurricane years for the last few years and they bombed out but this year (2009) really, really will be a record year”.
Those hurricanes had better jump to it if they want to keep from embarrassing… whoever that was.
timetochooseagain (22:29:22) The basics of hurricane formation
These are some of the things needed. However, having them won’t necessarily result in a hurricane.
A starter: in the eastern Atlantic an ‘Easterly Wave”
http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/reports/wxfacts/Easterly-wave—the-Hurricanes-cradle.htm
Distance off the Equator: > than about 6 degrees Latitude; otherwise the starter wave will not begin to rotate and the inward rotating Low won’t develop. See Coriolis Effect. http://www.ems.psu.edu/~fraser/Bad/BadCoriolis.html
Then ‘warm waters” to some depth. This site has some info but the water needs to be warm in the Atlantic Ocean (or wherever) also. Temps > 82 F; depth to 200-300 feet. Source of energy. Too cool water is likely why the South Atlantic rarely develops hurricanes.
http://www.surfermag.com/features/onlineexclusives/loopponeworld/
Then ‘no or little wind shear’ :
http://www.wunderground.com/education/shear.asp
It seems as if a big-bang peak is often followed by a collapse, whether it’s human or natural. On the human side, we had Woodstock in 1969, and rock n roll seems to have died since then. Ditto for the housing bubble in 2008. On the natural side, 1998 made an AGW believer out of me for several years, but things have gone nowhere since. And now the 2005 hurricane season has been followed by… virtually nothing.
Stephen Wilde: You wrote, “For cycles 21 22 and 23 the magnitudes of the two cycles are similar with a time lag.”
There are three cycles and regardless of how you lag the data, at least one of the last three cycles will always be out of phase.
You wrote, “What really matters is the similar sine wave on both plots and thy both show a slow decline in the peaks over the period.”
Looking at the last three cycles in the smoothed ACE data I presented, the peak of the first is lower than second and third. How is that a slow decline?
You wrote, “Now, consider this reply in conjunction with my reply to ‘actuator’ and I think we have something worthy of further investigation.”
My investigation ended with these two graphs:
http://i30.tinypic.com/ajrz1d.png
http://i31.tinypic.com/15phhtg.png
Look on the bright side. They can always apply for one of Obama’s green jobs…
Oops!
No hurricanes = no AGW = no green jobs.
“Skeptic Tank (09:52:28) :
Not that unusual. Hurricane Andrew didn’t strike until the last week in August, which is when things really pick up.
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gifs/peakofseason.gif”
Actually, looking at the graph that shows ACE, it seems to me that this years ACE is lower than any other year on the graph, which would make it pretty unusual in my book.
Am I missing something?
JimB
Bob Tisdale (03:31:35)
I know what you are saying but I consider the destabilising effect of a negative ocean at the same time as a positive solar influence to be quite capable of throwing out the correlations in the manner observed.
The best correlations are when both sun and oceans are in phase, the worst when they are out of phase and a large number of disparate effects during transitional spells.
Not everything in nature is neat and tidy.
The weather, she is a changing … The windmills will be safe.
Tyler (20:41:53)
Why is 2009 not zero?
According to my screen and glasses, it’s the Northern Hemisphere i.e. Asian Typhoons and tropical cyclones in the Arabian Sea. In the land down under they are also called tropical cyclones and spin clockwise. It would be interesting to see how the ACE correlate between hemispheres over time, though there is a 6 month difference between peak seasons in each hemisphere.
UK Sceptic (03:22:32) :
“Look on the bright side. They can always apply for one of Obama’s green jobs…
Oops!
No hurricanes = no AGW = no green jobs”.
UK Sceptic,
Have a look at this brilliant presentation made during a public hearing in California.
What’s the problem?
http://heliogenic.blogspot.com/2009/07/california-explained-must-view-video.html
Stephen Wilde (04:17:39) :
Bob Tisdale (03:31:35)
And then there are volcanoes.
Pamela Gray (09:45:12) :
“The primary reason for no hurricanes in the Gulf is because the jet stream is too far North. And the reason it is North is because of the condition of the PDO. This all results in the oceanic conditions of the Atlantic not having to fight the jet stream. So the turbulence that sets up hurricanes is taking a siesta. However, the occasional swing of the jet stream to its southern track can still happen during a cold/neutral PDO.”
Give her an attaboy
short accurate to the point and not attached to a political commentary.
The Jamaicans have a little jingle with respect to hurricane season:
June, too soon
July, stand by
August, you must
September, remember
October, all over
While this is possibly outdated now in light of 2005, it expresses a general rule of thumb. So, if we reach the next-to-last day of August with no named storms, then we may have something to think about.
It’s quiet out there… too quiet.
Referring to what’s happening at NHC- they are saddled with a government bureaucracy that doesn’t respond to the work of their own scientists. What they call their ‘Best Track Committee’, which approves all changes in the record, actually never meets; it’s head is a Cuban, which seems quite odd, given the state of things. I have it on good authority that there is frustration there over how things are politicized and how innovation is stifled by a soul numbing government culture of delay, deny and obfuscate. On July , my 16 year old nephew wrote this analysis of the El Nino:
It is noted that the CFS models have been too robust in regard to the development of El Nino. Based on recent data from June, NINO 3.4 has featured -IMAGE LINK: Sorry, Guests cannot view links.- . Previous projections from the CFS suites suggested that the rise would have yielded a June value slightly below +1 C. The ensemble mean has trended toward a slower development of El Nino, accordingly. Previous projections implied that an official tri-monthly El Nino would occur during late July or early August; currently, these projections have shifted to August or later periods. It is also notable that several CFS suites and the ensemble mean projected a more robust peak of El Nino (per NINO 3.4) in the high-end moderate or low-end strong category; new projections show a greater spread in the models, and many estimates have lowered into the moderate or low-end moderate range (see link). More reliable ENSO models are more consistent in regard to a weaker/later event. The new -IMAGE LINK: Sorry, Guests cannot view links.- are largely projecting the emergence of a tri-monthly El Nino (per 3.4 data) by late August or early September, followed by a peak in the low to medium range of the moderate category. Additionally, the ECMWF’s disparity between the higher and lower plumes has increased substantially since the previous forecast. Personally, I have consistently believed that the original CFS projections were too bullish in regard to 1) an earlier commencement of El Nino and 2) the peak strength of El Nino during the meteorological winter. The model trends, evident over the past several weeks, are supported by the newest data, including actual NINO 3.4 anomalies (showing a slower warming trend than the CFS suites) and model data that are based on the latest NINO 3.4 anomalies. The later Nino start and weaker peak will likely be conducive to a slightly more active Atlantic TC season than the CSU forecast; thus, I believe that an average season is the most likely outcome, and it reflects my expectations at this time. Although ENSO is only one factor in regard to meteorological support for my expectations, it is still notable.