More from the “weather is not climate department”. Emphasis below mine. And it is having an effect not only on crops but tourism in the Northeast US. – Anthony
Statement as of 4:00 PM EDT on July 9, 2009
record event report … corrected
National Weather Service Gray ME
400 PM EDT Thursday Jul 09 2009
… More record cold weather for Portland Maine…
The temperature at the Portland jetport only reached 58 degrees
yesterday. This set a record for the coldest high temperature on
July 7th. The old record was 59 degrees set in 1961. To put this in
another perspective… the normal low temperature for July 7th is 58
degrees.
The low temperature on Wednesday was 55 degrees. This produced a
range of only 3 degrees between the high and low temperatures which
is a record for the smallest daily range in temperatures on July
7th. The old record was a 4 degree spread set in 1963 and 1995.
The 3 degree daily temperature range yesterday also tied the record
for the smallest daily temperature range for any day in July. The
record was established on July 16th, 1961 and occurred five more
times before this year.
The average temperature yesterday was 57 degrees… which tied 1961
as the coldest average temperature for July 7th.
The high of 58 yesterday tied July 6th of 1956 as the second coldest
high ever recorded at the Portland jetport in July. The coldest high
ever in July was 57 degrees on the 4th of July in 1992.
On the 1st and 2nd of this month Portland only reached 59 degrees
both days… setting records for the coldest high temperature each
day and also tying several other days for the fourth coldest high
ever recorded in July.
Portland has set a record cold high temperature four out of the
first eight days this month. Here is a list of the record cold high
temperatures so far this month…
Date high temp. 2009 old record high and year
July 1st 59 degrees 62 degrees in 1976
July 2nd 59 degrees 63 degrees in 1986
July 7th 60 degrees 64 degrees in 1956
July 8th 58 degrees 59 degrees in 1961
Here is a list of the coldest high temperatures ever recorded in the
month of July at the Portland jetport. Four of the ten coldest
highs occurred in the first eight days of this month…
Rank temperature date
1 57 degrees July 4, 1992
2 58 degrees July 6, 1956
58 degrees July 8, 2009 <===
4 59 degrees July 8, 1961
59 degrees July 16, 1961
59 degrees July 30, 1976
59 degrees July 3, 1987
59 degrees July 1, 2009 <===
59 degrees July 2, 2009 <===
10 60 degrees July 7, 2009 <===
11 61 degrees several dates
The normal high temperature for the month of July is 78.8 degrees.
Along with the cold weather portlanders have also had to deal with
soaking rain this month. There have been three days so far with
around an inch and a half of rain. Rainfall of 1.41 inches fell on
the 2nd, 1.57 inches fell on the 7th and 1.50 inches fell on the 8th.
The 1.41 inches on the 2nd set a record for daily precipitation for
the date… topping the old record of 1.32 inches set in 1983. The
1.57 inches on the 7th was also a record… breaking the old mark for
the date of 1.34 inches set in 1935. The 1.50 inches on the 8th was
far short of the record 3.66 inches that fell on July 8th, 1915.
Temperature records at the Portland jetport began on November 25,
1940 and precipitation records go back to 1871.
&&
Note… corrected date in second table and added normal high for July.
Time for some supersize me ‘freedom fries’
Gary Pearse reports: ““We hypothesize that the established pre-1998 trend is the true forced warming signal, and that the climate system effectively overshot this signal in response to the 1997/98 El Niño. This overshoot is in the process of radiatively dissipating, and the climate will return to its earlier defined, greenhouse gas-forced warming signal. If this hypothesis is correct, the era of consistent record-breaking global mean temperatures will not resume until roughly 2020.”
The cherry picking gets narrower in time: from the 150 years since industrial revolution to the last 50 years, to the last decade and only the one that works, the range where the possible “pure” AGW scenario may -they always write may- apply is shrinking like in a certain Seinfeld episode…
Kum Dollison, before you read too much in this SST business you may want to know more about atmospheric circulation…
Here in Port Angeles, June averaged 2 degrees colder than normal and July has started out with an average of 9 degrees colder than normal. . . . but it is weather not climate. . .weather not climate . . .
GroupCaptainMandrake (10:24:15) : Look again at the row of URLs at the top of the page and see if you can find where OT notes belong. I’m available for reading tutoring if you can afford my fee and travel expenses. Private trains are expensive, but the city experts say rail is the most efficient way to travel.
Running very wet for a third year in the row here in England. http://www.climate-uk.com for stats. So much for a BBQ summer that the Met Office forecast (and hence cancelled), with the jet stream displaced several hundred miles to the south.
FWIW, I just did an ersatz solar brightness test.
It’s “high noon” adjusting for daily light “savings” time. Sun is directly overhead. The Nikon was set to “200 ASA” and aperture was set to F/16.
That ought to yield a shutter speed of 1/200 th second. A variety of street scenes of full sun gave speeds from 1/125 to 1/160 th second with some outliers. There IS less brightness than “expected”.
Generations of photographers have used the “1 / film speed at f16 in full sun” rule. I used to be printed on the package inserts of Kodak film. I’ve tested my meter readings on this same set of street scenes (my front yard, driveway, and street / homes) for the last 20 years+. It’s been a very good and fairly reliable tool.
What it’s telling me right now is that there is something reducing the sunshine at ground level by just a bit. (Normally, I’d have expected a few 1/160, a couple of 1/250 and a few 1/200 for the scenes on the street. I got some 1/80, mostly 1/125 and 1/160, and just one 1/200 on a brighter than 18% grey scale scene).
I need to find where my 18% grey scale card is and make this a more robust measurement… or maybe dig out my ancient “direct light meter” and get actual foot-candle measurements…
For right now, though, the “quick and dirty” sanity check measure says that yes, there IS something reducing the light level at ground level and it does not show up as large fluffy clouds, only as an indistinct change of sky color to a more ‘milky’ tinge.
Anyone with a decent camera can repeat this test. To make it more accurate you need an 18% grey scale card from your local photo shop. To make it very accurate, you need to calibrate your camera meter to a brightness standard (though quality gear ought to be pretty well ‘spot on’ already.)
Jack Simmons (11:55:04) :
No, the lower Fraser Valley in British-Columbia, Canada.
“Experts blame climate change for the early arrival of intense cold which began in March.”
This is a meaningless statement.It is like saying when it is wet outside , the experts blame it on the rain. Of course there is a climate change if an intense cold has arrived several months early. It must come from somewhere? It says nothing about why this happened, like colder SST, higher level cold , etc . No expert has been named and the true cause is not given , I suspect this statement was added by the author without any expert ever having been consulted.
Anthony, I owe you an apology. You were (mostly) correct, in that the current heat wave in South Texas is not unusual.
I checked the maximum daily temperatures (raw? data) for the 20 year period from 1986 – 2005, tabulating the number of triple degree days:
Average = 12 / year
Maximum = 36 in 1998
Also 29 in 1994, 28 in 1989, 25 in 1996 (including 1 in Feb – WUWT?), and 22 in 2000.
Ignoring these 5 obvious outliers, 🙂 the average is ≈ 6 triple digit days / year.
There were 3 years with only 1 triple digit day, and no year with 0.
So bottom line, a lot of variability.
It’s hot, but not unusual.
But I will bet that 2009 beats out 1998, since previously we got some triple digit days in Sept. and this is barely mid July.
E.M.Smith, very interesting observations, who knew there was someone who remembered how bright the sun felt to them decades ago compared to now.
Maybe proof the sun is dimming, but if the sun is having less ‘bite’ than decades ago, then it must be affecting high temps. in various areas of the globe as well, there’s also the possibility it slightly affects the Sun’s ability to burn away clouds and perform daytime heating at points.
Antonio San,
I’m willing to Read whatever link you put up, but when the guy with the thermometer tells me the Sea Surface is the hottest it’s been since 98′ (and, really close to That mark,) you’re going to have a hard time convincing me that we’re not getting ready to “warm up” a bit (OR, have some pretty big Typhoons.)
I’ll say it again: I think anyone would be “Crazy” to bet “Anything” on short-term (next year’s) weather.
Until someone can tell me what causes the Ice Ages, or, at least, from whence comest the ENSO, I’m taking it ALL with a grain of salt.
Here in central Florida, yesterday morning I saw 67 degrees on my indoor-outdoor thermometer. I have never seen it drop below 70 in July in Florida in all the time I’ve lived here. But it’s just weather, not climate, bla, bla…
E.M.Smith (13:06:32) :
Are you aware that “solar noon” varies with longitude, latitude and date?
I used to know the formula, but now I’d have to dig out my old text book.
E.M. Smith wrote, “It looks like their is a faint milky haze “somewhere” up their (the expected stark dark blue sky is more of a periwinkle not quite milky faded blue jeans color). Don’t know how to turn that observation into a measurable quantity nor into a physical cause.” I’m glad I’m not the only one who noticed this. The sky does not seem to be quite its normal shade of blue; it’s more silvery than what I think I remember as normal, even on a purportedly clear day. (Not that we’ve had many of those for checking purposes!)
I was thinking that there was no way of measuring this objectively, but your tests with your camera shutter speed are fascinating. Any optics engineers out there? Any cloud scientists? Anybody who might have some idea what, if anything, this means?
Paul Maynard (12:45:50) :…………………………… I am still dumbfounded by the sheer arrogance and incompetence.
Indeed. There seems to be an epidemic – or should I say “Pandemic” – of those 2 maladies making the rounds in various Governmental circles these days. I wonder if anyone is working on a vaccine? 🙂 😉
Harold Ambler (09:45:36) :
Am spending a month in Rhode Island. Does anyone else at similar latitude or farther north perceive mild solar dimming as though from volcanic dust?
The one other thing I wory about is how much the sulfer in the dust interacting greatly with cosmic rays (see Svensmark Cosmoclimatology) causing a great increase in clouds. I know for the last several weeks here in Omaha,it has been about 6 degrees under the predicted high and it has mostly been from more clouds. They would be thick most of the morning and even if they would thin some in the afternoon it would not let in enough light to counter it. The one thing for heat we have had to deal with here has been some brutal days of high humidity. Even with the temps in the low 80’s you couldn’t work outside for long due to the high heat index. (and that is with the clouds overhead)
With regards to the BBC article, specifically the picture and caption – I don’t see no malnourished children! Maybe they should have captioned the picture (of an ice-covered mountain) something like “Peru: It’s cold!”
Kum Dollison start with:
http://www.sciencedirect.com/science?_ob=ArticleURL&_udi=B6VF0-48DYTM7-W&_user=10&_rdoc=1&_fmt=&_orig=search&_sort=d&view=c&_acct=C000050221&_version=1&_urlVersion=0&_userid=10&md5=766756d3d7f4ca161b38dbeda14162d9
Kum Dollison,
“But, that doesn’t have anything to do with the fact that the Oceans are heating up quite rapidly.”
The SST’s may have no relationship at all to the heat content of the oceans. The thin surface layer of the oceans that SST’s represent are much more variable than subsurface. Please quote data similar to the Argo float system that actually measures below surface data before you start ranting about high ocean temps.
“I’m willing to Read whatever link you put up, but when the guy with the thermometer…”
First you need to ask that guy with the thermometer how accurate it and the recording of temps are. Second you need to find out exactly where he stuck that thermometer!!
HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA
Get over it Kum, you are starting to sound like a RealClimate LOON.
Pamela Gray (11:43:20) “Plants are very tolerant of averages. They are not so tolerant of extremes.”
Bravo — plants are a much better indicator of climate than computer fantasies. (Plants don’t lie; they die.)
–
Anthony, thanks for re-motivating a shelved research focus: NorthEast Coast. (Anecdote: The last time I was in Portland, Maine at this time of year, it was sweltering (humid) heat.)
Bos,
“Time for some supersize me ‘freedom fries’”
Hmmm, could the animal in us here in the US be preparing us for the cooler weather?? I keep reading a lot of articles about the increase in obesity here!!
HAHAHAHAHAHAHA
Here’s what I don’t get about the entire “AGW is gonna kill us off” position.
Humanity, as a species, ( and even most individuals ) is pretty damn tough, or we wouldn’t still be here. Despite everything that this rock has thrown at us over the past few hundred thousand years, we’ve steadily increased our numbers, our standard of living, and our knowledge. We didn’t get to the top of the food chain on our good looks, that’s for sure. We are some tough hombres. Ask any of our ancestors that speared mammoths for a living.
The AGW types would have us believe that we are such a delicate flower that the least little departure from their vision of “comfy” will bring down the wrath of god, and wipe us from the face of the earth. I don’t know about anyone else, but that sounds more than a little ridiculous to me.
Flanagan,
As a UK late comer to this post I must remark that your first posted comment about Europe and CSP is a load of ********.
It’s a supreme example of ‘belief’ in the technology over the reality of the actual possibility of achievement.
For example, no one, as far as I am aware has even attempted to quantify the security implications and costs involved. IMOHP these will be sufficient to scupper the project, unless of course Europe decides to undertake a new ‘colonisation’ of North Africa.
I camped out near Cambridge in the UK this weekend. Had a very bad night. Wasn’t the pouring rain but the cold that kept me awake. Got down to 10°C I reckon but I only had a light summer blanket. Brrr…
Flanagan, You are not here for dialog, thats our problem.
I have seen your exact same remark “Weather is not cliamte .. BLAH BLAH” 20-40 times? And mostly you get the same answers over again and again with politeness.
So how many times do you need the same answers? And why is it so important for you to get the same answers so many times?
This thing of yours looks like you just want to be unplessant or just want to disturb other people.
You have got your answers to your question SO many times, also from me that if Anthony started snipping your bad behaviour out, it would be understandable, your are using Anthonys politeness.
One of the answers is – and you know it:
“In the medias we hear extremely much about any warming event, and in the media even cold events, storms, floods, drought is “sign of warming”.
so FLANAGAN: If you want BALANCE in these thing why dont you go out in other medias and critique that they dont bring more cold stories?? Why is your attempt to get balance in things to attack again and again the few placed where some cold stories are allowed to be told?
You want balance, go out and promote Cooling stories in the rest of the world!”
And Flanagan, I am very happy that there is a media where cold stories can be told, thankyou very much Anthony. If you dont like it FLanagan , for the XXXX time, go to some warmist forum. You are just attacking Anthonys media blindly, and you wonder why you are not popular??