RSS Global Temperature for June 09, also down

Both Lucia and Steve McIntyre beat me on this story, so I’ll defer to them. That’s what I get for going to dinner with relatives last night and sleeping in.

Below is a plot from McIntyre showing the RSS data compared to UAH MSU. Both are down significantly in June 2009 with UAH MSU at .001°C

RSS is down from 0.090C in May 2009 to 0.075C in June 2009

Steve McIntyre writes a little parody of the issue: RSS June – “Worse Than We Thought”

Lucia actually expected RSS to climb and has an analysis here

Even NCDC’s director Tom Karl has something to say about satellite data, read on.

Both of the datasets are available in raw form if you want t plot for yourself.

RSS (Remote Sensing Systems, Santa Rosa)

RSS data here (RSS Data Version 3.2)

UAH (University of Alabama, Huntsville)

Reference: UAH lower troposphere data

There had been some comments in the UAH thread earlier that May and  June seem to have cycled lower in the UAH data set in recent years. It seems that RSS is following also.

I expect we’ll hear an announcement from NOAA/NCDC soon about it being the nth warmest June on record. They will of course cite surface data from stations like this one at the Atmospheric Sciences Department, University of Arizona at Tucson:

Tucson1.jpg

Here is a testimony in March 2009 before congress from NCDC’s director Tom Karl, where he complains about satellite data and the “adjustments” required:

It is important to note raw satellite data and rapidly produced weather products derived from satellite sensors are rarely useful for climate change studies. Rather, an ordered series of sophisticated technical processes, developed through decades of scientific achievement, are required to convert raw satellite sensor data into Climate Data Records (CDRs).

You mean “sophisticated technical processes” like these performed on raw surface temperature data at NCDC?

Differences Due to Adjustments

larger image

Areal vs Final Difference

larger image

Source: http://cdiac.ornl.gov/epubs/ndp/ushcn/ndp019.html

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Jim
July 10, 2009 4:29 pm

John Finn (12:22:53) : Hey John.
Maybe it doesn’t matter because not just anyone can look at the data. Not only that, we don’t know how it is processed. Sorry, but if the Met office want their work to be taken seriously, they will have to publish it.
“The Met Office wish to monitor the use of this data and require an acknowledgement of the data source if they are used in any publication. The online application for access to the Met Office SST data includes the Met Office Agreement to be electronically accepted.Please note that the Met Office data sets are available for bona fide academic research only (sorry no undergraduates). If you wish to access the Met Office data for commercial or personal purposes, please contact the Met Office directly.”

Jim
July 10, 2009 4:40 pm

Chris V. (14:56:14) : The difference it that the satellite data adjustment is physics based. The land and sea surface adjustments are accomplished with statistical fairy dust with a few educated (or not) guesses thrown in.

Bobby W
July 10, 2009 4:47 pm

Cap&Trade must be killed in the US Senate.

GlennB
July 10, 2009 4:52 pm

timetochooseagain (16:21:49) :
“Chris V. (14:56:14) : What appears disingenuous is the suggestion that these adjustments aren’t already being/have been done. This kind of misdirection is done by the Team all the time-it is suggested that certain data still needs adjustments-subtly, but simply saying “satellite records must go through processes to make them into climate quality data” or the like with out mention that the processes have already been applied (which is true in many cases). Apparently intentionally, this gives a baseless reason to reject satellite results-a doggy treat for the Team’s bulldogs and true believers.”
Yes, I also have difficulty with Chris’s assessment. No one sees real raw data, but data that is processed thru computer programs, which handle such things as orbital drift. Karl seems to me to be little more than a pitchman. Are we to assume that published data such as RSS above is raw data all the way back to 1979? Or that Congressmen need to be told that raw data hasn’t been processed?

George E. Smith
July 10, 2009 4:56 pm

Man alive;
I do hope that the University of Arizona Optical Sciences Center, is not as incompetent as their Atmospheric Sciences Department. Looking at that pristine Urban Heat Island Owl Box there, I think I just figured out how the Perkin Elmer Optical Engineers came to make the Hubble Space Telsescope Primary Mirror exactly wrong to 15 decimal places.
They must all be UofA-OSC chaps instead of Rochester types. I seem to recall that Eastman Kodak, also made a spare mirror for the Hubble; but their’s was exactly correct to 15 decimal places.
No way in hell you can get into Kodak, if you go to UofA. Happily, I learned my Optics at neither one of those schools.
What a joy to behold; a University designed Urban Heat Island, instead of those cornfield, and barbecue types in the California Bayous, that Anthony frightened us all with.
If you are going to screw up, you might as well do it neatly.
George

July 10, 2009 5:10 pm

Robert Wood (15:26:23) :
Mr. Finn, the surface temeopratures are always rising, didn’t you know that 🙂 It’s just that this only happens at GISS and HCRU.
No I didn’t. On checking the 4 main temperature records, I note that since the early 1990s the trends are almost identical. If GISS and HadCrut are rising, it seems that RSS and UAH are also rising.
I’ll take satellite temps anyday.
Fine. Let’s see what the satellite record tells us in 6 months time.

July 10, 2009 5:16 pm

Tim Clark (13:45:19) :

John Finn (12:22:53) :
I’ve posted on this before, but I don’t suppose it’ll hurt to do it one more time.
The satellite measurements are behind the curve, i.e. they are reflecting the low SST that were present a few months back. The surface readings are now on the rise. The satellite readings are just now “bottoming out” and will follow the surface readings upwards in the next month or so.

So, an admission of SST oscillations influencing temperature. You’re one grade above the IPCC, and making progress.
Yes – but the low point of the oscillation is now the average temperature of 20 years ago. Do you not see we’re slowly shifting upwards. Recent La Nina events are warmer than (or as warm as) past El Nino events.

RoyFOMR
July 10, 2009 5:31 pm

I’m confused. Does this mean that we’re not doomed, slightly less doomed or doomed not even a tiny wee bit?

Leon Brozyna
July 10, 2009 5:58 pm

Okay – read Tom Karl’s words and they can be condensed down to – “That’s the way we’ve always done things.”

Adam from Kansas
July 10, 2009 6:06 pm

If John Finn is correct then why does this NOAA page say we have had 715 Low Max Temps. when you include new records and ones that tied?
http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/oa/climate/research/records/index.php?ts=daily&elem=lomx&month=7&day=0&year=2009&submitted=Get+Records
There’s plenty of high temp. records if you change it but the low max. temps outnumber them last I checked. The low max temp. records being tied or broken in spades in the first 10 days makes it on track to beating the 1000+ recorded in June.
Maybe there are neccesarily not higher high temps. But higher low temps?

Jim
July 10, 2009 6:09 pm

RoyFOMR (17:31:28) : Yes! You are doomed! Errr … well … you are doomed but the dooming may be put off for some yet to be determined time in the future! Ahhh … Yes, you are doomed, but the dooming may not be as great as the previously dooming vision suggested. Well, you may be doomed … but if you are, you will greatly regret it … that is if the fairy dust and tea leaves hold out.

Adam from Kansas
July 10, 2009 6:38 pm

One may want to look at this
http://icecap.us/images/uploads/amoarticlel.pdf
The interesting part is that there was an El-Nino within 12 months of the last four solar minimums and here it is happening again. It’s almost as if there’s an El Nino lying in wait after solar minimum arrives as of recent O.o

Chris V.
July 10, 2009 6:50 pm

timetochooseagain (16:21:49) :
Again, I advise you to read the link.
The satellite data goes back 50 years in some cases. It was collected using many different satellites and instruments. Most of it was not collected with long-term monitoring in mind. To get a long term record, you have to calibrate the different instruments/satellites to each other- not a trivial process- and adjust for things like orbital decay.
Much of the information has been collected by satellites designed for weather forecasting.
Things like orbital drift, inter-satellite calibration, etc, are not significant for weather forecasting (where you’re watching a storm over a period of a few weeks, at most), so the data is not adjusted for that. But they are very important when you’re looking at long -term changes (just ask Dr. Spencer and the other folks over at UAH).

RoyFOMR
July 10, 2009 6:54 pm

Jim (18:09:41) :
Thanks for clearing that up for me Jim.
🙂

Editor
July 10, 2009 7:08 pm

Yes, the climate change had changed back to normal, obviously the fault of some nefarious nations or megacorps intentionally making their volcanoes spew more sulfates.
No doubt, someone is going to start blaming the quiet sun on the fact so many people are watching, waiting for it to start up again, after all, a watched pot never boils….

crosspatch
July 10, 2009 7:42 pm

Considering who the administration’s top science advisor is none of this is any surprise.

Jim
July 10, 2009 7:43 pm

I Mike Lorrey (19:08:38) : I’ve found the answer. Apparently Hansen, Mann, and Steig didn’t take into consideration Uncle Bill …
http://news.slashdot.org/story/09/07/10/0522210/Can-Bill-Gates-Prevent-the-Next-Katrina

Nick Yates
July 10, 2009 8:24 pm

Flanagan (11:42:05) :
Always the same analysis of small wiggles… Don’t you see that the very fact that a zero anomaly is hailed t like that (for one month only) is a proof that it has become increasingly rare? How many times in the last 10 years (that is last 120 months) did we get close to, or equal to zero? Now compare that to the 90ies
What goes up must come back down. Cheer up, zero anomalies are going to become increasingly common again, followed by negative anomolies.

Mac
July 10, 2009 9:10 pm

I figured i would translate some of the testimony regarding satellite data.
It is important to note raw satellite data and rapidly produced weather products derived from satellite sensors are only useful to climate change skeptics. Rather, an ordered series of sophisticated technical processes, developed through decades of scientific achievement, are required to obfuscate raw satellite sensor data into Climate Data Records (CDRs). As defined by the National Research Council, a CDR is a time series of measurements of sufficient length, consistency, complication, and continuity that can be used to distort current climate variability and change.

DR
July 10, 2009 9:12 pm

John Finn
Perhaps you should study Lubos Motl’s reply from a previous thread.
Lubos said:
I morally disagree with the popular comments that “something is just weather not climate”. It is true in the sense that one can isolate “weather” and “climate” questions, to some extent, according to the timescales.
However, what’s wrong is the hidden indication that the “weather” doesn’t matter while the “climate” does. It’s just false. In the real life of any human, animal, plant, company, or nation, what matters at any moment is the weather.
If the climate were “significantly” warming, according to a practically meaningful definition of “significantly”, that would inevitably mean that the frequency of cold records would plummet rapidly – according to a Gaussian profile. Why?
Well, if you imagine that the temperatures oscillate with normal distribution around a “central” value but this “cental” value also has an increasing trend, it is clear that the probability distribution for temperature “T” in the year “Y” will be schematically of the form exp(-(Y-T)^2). So if you choose a record low “T” you want to break, the probability that you break it decreases as exp(-Y^2) with the year, with some constants inside.
The warming becomes significant exactly at the point when this exponential starts to become essentially zero, faster than exponentially. So if we’re still observing record low temperatures essentially as frequently as we would expect in a stationary random world, it simply means that the climate is not significantly warming.
The weather is perhaps not the climate, but it is the weather, and not the climate (a hypothetical long-term abstraction of the weather), that actually matters and influences the people and events. The fluctuations of the “weather” by 10 degrees of Celsius – in days or weeks – are real and the fact that people and others can easily survive it simply means that changes comparable to 10 degrees are not such a big deal. That’s why it is completely ludicrous to talk about practical consequences of a temperature change by 1 or 2 °C per century.
There won’t be any. Only sophisticated statistical analysis involving average over the Earth as well as time is needed to observe such small changes, and even with this analysis, such a change remains controversial because it’s too small relatively to the errors. A normal being located at a random place or trajectory on the planet can’t possibly reliably detect such a change, and even if she could detect it, it can’t visibly influence her, especially not with a sign that could be predictably negative.

July 10, 2009 9:19 pm

crosspatch (19:42:03),
Excellent catch: click. Anyone who missed it is in for a treat.

July 10, 2009 9:26 pm

I did a bar plot of the human contribution of CO2.
http://noconsensus.wordpress.com/2009/07/11/gaias-demise/
The title needs work though.
That’s an amazing link Crosspatch, if its true my rants are understated.

nostawetan
July 10, 2009 9:34 pm

Oh no! Global cooling!

July 10, 2009 9:42 pm

VG (14:30:14) :
Anthony: This was posted on CA
ken roberts:
July 10th, 2009 at 2:21 pm
“Re: BarryW (#12),
From what I recently read this is the last data we will get; two of the three on-board lasers have failed and the remaining one is failing”.
This concerns the satellite JAXA/AMSR ice data apparently (you might double check if worth your while). I’ve suspected this for some time especially when NANSEN withdrew its last years major down adjustments. I suspect they will re-adjust soon again upwards. Visually it doesn’t look like NH ice is melting much this year.

A few problems with this: NANSEN doesn’t use AMSR it uses SSM/I, neither uses lasers they use passive microwave measurements. So it would appear that you have been misinformed.

rbateman
July 10, 2009 9:44 pm

Good point, DR. If we are getting record lows breaking those set 110 years ago when the global average was .4C cooler, it says on the face of it that warming has 1.) ceased and 2.) is attaining anomaly points far below the current baseline.
The last one is the killer for catastrophic runaway warming.
An aside is the racking up of record lows faster than highs.
Just because the last 4 solar cycles ran high didn’t preclude SC24 from being a late & low cycle, any more that the last 4 solar cycles having a big El Nino at the start of ramp ensures this late cycle as having a gimme El Nino. That would be fool me twice and a really bad case of wish upon a star.