[Updated] UAH, straight from the source, Dr. Roy Spencer who announced it on his blog today.
The was a lot of speculation last year that our global temperature would recover from the huge drops last spring. While there has been some recovery, the overall global temperature trend since 1999 has been the subject of much debate. What is not debatable is that the current global temperature anomaly, as determined by a leading authority on global satellite temperature measurements, says we have no departure from “normal” this month. Given the U.S. Senate is about to vote upon the most complex and costly plan to regulate greenhouse gases, while the EPA suppresses earlier versions of the chart shown below from a senior analyst, this should give some pause to those who are rational thinkers. For those that see only dogma, I expect this will be greeted with jeers. – Anthony

June 2009 Global Temperature Anomaly Update: 0.00 deg. C
Dr. Roy Spencer
July 3rd, 2009
YR MON GLOBE NH SH TROPICS
2009 1 0.304 0.443 0.165 -0.036
2009 2 0.347 0.678 0.016 0.051
2009 3 0.206 0.310 0.103 -0.149
2009 4 0.090 0.124 0.056 -0.014
2009 5 0.045 0.046 0.044 -0.166
2009 6 0.001 0.032 -0.030 -0.003
June 2009 saw another — albeit small — drop in the global average temperature anomaly, from +0.04 deg. C in May to 0.00 deg. C in June, with the coolest anomaly (-0.03 deg. C) in the Tropics. The decadal temperature trend for the period December 1978 through June 2009 remains at +0.13 deg. C per decade.
NOTE: A reminder for those who are monitoring the daily progress of global-average temperatures here:
(1) Only use channel 5 (”ch05″), which is what we use for the lower troposphere and middle troposphere temperature products.
(2) Compare the current month to the same calendar month from the previous year (which is already plotted for you).
(3) The progress of daily temperatures (the current month versus the same calendar month from one year ago) should only be used as a rough guide for how the current month is shaping up because they come from the AMSU instrument on the NOAA-15 satellite, which has a substantial diurnal drift in the local time of the orbit. Our ‘official’ results presented above, in contrast, are from AMSU on NASA’s Aqua satellite, which carries extra fuel to keep it in a stable orbit. Therefore, there is no diurnal drift adjustment needed in our official product.
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Another question (for those living in the British Isles): do they still have commercial wineries there like they did in Chaucer’s times (the 1300’s)? Or is it too cold now?
A couple years ago I was going through my mother’s old Nat’l Geogrphics (1998 or 1999) and remember reading an article about life there 10,000 years ago. They talked about hippos swimming in the Thames near the present site of London.
I wonder, did man cause those periods of warming? Did man cause Greenland to be “green” the way it used to be?
As I do each month to Al Gore’s chagrin, I’ve embellished Dr. Spencers UAH monthly graph…
http://algorelied.com/?p=2429
“”” John Finn (16:54:07) :
I hate to be a party pooper but the low May-Jun-Jul satellite anomalies were expected. The lag between ENSO events and surface temperatures is less than that of the satellites. Earlier in the year, GISS and Hadley had much lower anomalies relative to RSS and UAH. GISS and Hadley are now refelecting the warmer SST. UAH and RSS should follow suit in the next month or two. “””
So what, if they were expected; the CO2 still went up didn’t it ? The values is what they is; whether they were expected or not.
On the otherhand, absolutely none of what Hansen predicted in 1988 has actually happened whether it was expected or not; oh I forgot it was a projection not a prediction. So are both projections and predictions expected; or just the projections.
By the way; weren’t we told back last month that they were expecting -113 Fat Vostok, or at that Aussie station; that’s about -80 deg C and the troops in Iraq are seeing +130 F, that’s about 54C, so we had a range of around 134 deg C last month, out of which the “mean” seems to have hanged by 0.001, or is it 0.003 deg C.
And people actually believe this is significant; whether it goes up or down.
The instrumentation is even that good.
And how many of Hansen’s owl boxes were affected by the summer barbecues last month, anyway.
Yeah this is real science alright; it’s not even 4-H club science; but hey, it IS peer reviewed.
George
PS what was the standard deviation on that latest anomaly reading ? And what about the trend; what would you say that is ?
“”” J. Bob (09:31:26) :
Comparing FFT Convolution & Recursive Filtering Methods and Long Term Temperature Data “””
So JBob; why don’t you try running your Stereo system through some four
pole Tchebychev filter; and tell us if you like the trash that comes out of
your loudspeakers in lieu of music.
You take highly unpredictable time varying function; FFT it to try and get some sort of valid frequency domain representation, and then you filter it through a highly non- linear phase filter and then convert it back to the time domain, and surprise, it rings like a bell at around the cutoff frequency of the filter.
So just what were you expecting; some sort of faithful reproduction of the data. Even a four pole Butterworth Filter would have more than 10% overshoot, and a four pole tchebychev even with only 0.01 dB passband ripple would have over 12% overshoot.
\
Why didn’t you use a filter more like a Bessel, or even Gaussian Filter, if you wanted to get a truer time domain response that is low pass filtered. Try using a Cauer filter if you want to really muck things up royally.
I prefer to see the real data as it comes straight from the instrumentation; I don’t see any point in throwing away real data for some ersatz phony representation of it.
George
“”” Ozzie John (06:09:12) :
Karl B. (15:15:05) :
I know this is a measurement of temperature, but where does the heat go?
Karl, I guess this is the question all non-AGW/ RC scientists are trying to answer. As an engineer (non-climate scientist) I can only ponder the same question.
Perhaps the earth’s radiation budget can be considered like this ?. The summer facing hemisphere gains more heat than it releases, thus it makes sense that more cloud will help cool this hemisphere, and less cloud means more heat. For the winter facing hemisphere more heat is being lost as IR into space than it receives from direct sunlight, thus less cloud means more loss of IR and more cooling and more cloud means more heat retention. If ENSO affects the cloud distribution in a seasonal manner then this could be a contributing factor ? Of course the system is more complex than this and the rate of heat transportation to the poles (eg: from hadley cell velocity) to a region of less water vapour where it can radiate more effectively back into space is probably another key factor in the ENSO mechanism. “””
Surely you jest Ozzie ? Heat is transported to the poles where it can radiate more effectively back into space ? Time to bone up on some black body radiation theory. Most people believe that thermal radiation emittance varies as the fourth power of temperature, and as a result the emittance in the hottest tropical deserts in the mid-day heat is over 12 times higher than at the coldest polar winter midnights. So much for the polar regions radiating more effectively.
Then there is that little matetr of the Wien Displacement Law. At the mean surface temperature of around +15 deg C, the IR emittance peaks at around 10.1 microns; whereas the CO2 absorption spectrum is centered at around 15 microns, so it is somewhat down on the long wavelength tail of the emission spectrum. In the hottest desert temperatures; up to +60 deg C (surfgace), the emission spectrum peak moves down to around 8.8 microns (Wien), so CO2 becomes even less effective in trapping the outgoing radiation.
On the other hand at those colder polar temperatures, where the emittance is pitifully low, the emission spectrum has now moved up to the 15 micron wavelength; right where CO2 does its best trapping. So much for your notion that radiative cooling loss is more efficient at the polar regions.
And if the surface emissivity at the poles is an order of magnitude smaller than at the tropical desert daytime highs, so m,ust be the radiative “forcing” (hate that word) due to CO2 green house effect. Don’t go looking for any 1.5 to 5 deg C “climate sensitivity” values in those cold polar regions; there simply isn’t enough emitted radiation to raise temperatures much at all, even if the CO2 grabbed it all.
George
Leaving out all politics, I like red.
The color of warmth and passion. Some other words that warmth brings to mind:
affable, affectionate, amiable, amorous, ardent, cheerful, compassionate, cordial, fervent, genial, gracious, happy, heartfelt, hearty, hospitable, kindhearted, kindly, loving, pleasant, responsive, sincere, softhearted, sympathetic, tender, warmhearted, wholehearted, empathetic…
While blue always makes me think of frigidity and cold. Other words that cold brings to my mind are:
arctic, biting, bitter, bleak, brisk, chill, cool, crisp, cutting, frigid, frosty, frozen, glacial, icy, inclement, penetrating, polar, raw, severe, sharp, snappy, snowy, stinging, wintry, Siberian, algid, benumbed, chilled, icebox, iced, numbed, shivery, sleety…
Now can someone remind why we want the earth even colder?
http://www.iceagenow.com/Record_low_temperatures_in_46_states_during_June.htm
timetochooseagain (13:03:31)
Mike Bryant (18:17:56) :
I’ve got it! Maroon!
With a hat-tip to Bugs Bunny: “What a bunch of maroons!”
Jimmy,
Maroon then it is! the color of the Texas Aggies is good enough for me. I may be wrong but it seems to contain more red than blue…
Mike
Roger (03:19:07) : E.M.Smith So pleased to hear about your tomatoes! your earlier post re Siberian and Arctic varieties led me to research and locate seeds available here in Scotland which my wife intends to cultivate next year. This year’s crop of English varieties looks promising, but the previous 2 years were total failures, despite the CET for 2007 and 2008 ramping up hotter and hotter. It takes very little research to discover that the CET series is not in fact a true series, having been changed in it’s locations and it’s readings adjusted, for reasons that seem dubious to a layman like me.
The plants don’t lie and have no agenda …
FWIW, these folks claim to have a tomato that works in Scotland:
http://www.seedfest.co.uk/about/about.html#highland
Mike Bryant (18:17:56) : Now can someone remind why we want the earth even colder?
http://www.iceagenow.com/Record_low_temperatures_in_46_states_during_June.htm
Wow…
With regard to UK vineyards, there are an increasing number and of course this is widely attributed to global warming, although also should be attributed to changes in the drinking behaviour of the British middle classes – I wonder how many of the vineyards are on sites where hops used to be grown. Most are in southern England although there is one just down the road from my sister (slightly north of Birmingham), and I understand the furthest north is in South Yorkshire.
Now, there is little doubt that the UK has tended to warmer summers and (more particularly) milder winters over the last 25 years, but it is a big stretch to prove that the climate of a fairly small island on the edge of a large ocean bears much relation to the rest of the world. The recent weather though has been more conducive to growing some varieties of grape, especially with the development of types that are more resistant to cold.
I understand (although am no expert on the issue) that the UK can produce some very good sparkling wines based on the same grape varieties as traditionally used in the Champagne region (which of course isn’t that far away from the south east of England).
Awww shucks, only a 0 degree increase, hoping for more – Alaskans for Global Warming.
Jason (10:04:07) :
Let’s address each of your (incorrect and misleading) comments in turn.
You: Great, the tropospheres temperature is not increasing… that is a good argument to spew more co2 in the air. Why is measuring one part of the atmosphere a clinical argument. There is more than one part to the atmosphere.
Reply: Surface temperatures have been corrupted by unexplained and unjustified and incorrect and biased “correction factors” by Hansen’s GISS and the NOAA such that more than 85% of the ENTIRE “global warming” temperature between 1900 and 2000 is “correction factors. Worse, the single most significant known “correction” that does actually INCREASE the apparent measured temperatures is NOT corrected in the NOAA/GISS plots – thus corrupting the evidence even more against your assumed AGW. Unbiased, un-corrupted raw data showing a decline in truly global temperatures uncorrupted by local heat islands, false measurement stations, and human influences IS the most reliable measurement possible.
Further, GISS, the IPCC, and the UK’s staff “climatologists” have been shown numerous times to have lied and propagandized their data, their studies, and their messages – so their claims need be checked by more reliable sources.
Local surface temperatures – in the “best measured” country in the world have been found to have fewer than 12% of the stations accurately sited and safe from local heat biases. The rest of the world is even worse. What measurements do you want to trust your 1.6 trillion dollar boondoggle to?
—
You: Dont worry about the stratosphere and the ice sheets, the troposphere graph will fix it. The ice (our ignorance parachute) is pretending to melt. Bring back CFCs.
Reply: AGW theory REQUIRES that the upper troposphere be warming much more rapidly than the surface temperatures, and even more rapidly than the oceans and arctic areas. It is not so warming – but is declining. This proves that Hansen’s and Gore’s THEORY of CO2 effects on temperature – with the constants they have ASSUMED and the math that they have APPROXIMATED in the computer ESTIMATES and PROJECTIONS is false. If the data prove your computer is false over a 30 year period, you CANNOT make your theory correct by lying about the effects prdicted
100 years, 200 years, or 400 years in the future.
Arctic sea ice extents were measured (not guessed, not assumed, not “corrected” or corrupted but actually measured this spring in 2009 at their record highest-ever extent. Antarctic ice mass is now also at its highest ever recorded value. What is melting, and where? Sea levels are NOT rising faster than ever before, but at the same consistent 2 to 3 mm/year rate they’ve always been rising since the last Ice Age.
—
You: Changing the structure of the air is a great idea. 10 million years to stabilize the air and we can change that is 50. Civilization at it best.
Reply: Yes, increasing CO2 has led to 12% to 27% MORE food, fuel, fodder, feed, and seeds as plants grow faster, stronger, and more drought resistant. Name ANY real world harm done by increasing CO2 from today’s levels to say 1000 ppm or 1500 ppm. Name ANY real danger from an increase in temperature by 2 degrees – while noting that right now, we are cooling off globally at a 2 degree per century rate..
The atmosphere has NEVER been “stable” and is part of a natural world that we can only marvel at. Destroying the world and increasing poverty RUINS more ecologies and KILLS more people than improving people’s economic conditions so THEY can live safer, more productive, healthier lives. Or do you really want more people to die? Colder winter weather kills 4 to 6 times more people per year than warmer, more productive, healthier and safer hot, more summer-like temperatures.
Robert A Cook PE (18:09:30) :
Jason (10:04:07) :
Let’s address each of your (incorrect and misleading) comments in turn.
How about we address some of yours?
Arctic sea ice extents were measured (not guessed, not assumed, not “corrected” or corrupted but actually measured this spring in 2009 at their record highest-ever extent.
Not true: http://www.ijis.iarc.uaf.edu/en/home/seaice_extent.htm
Antarctic ice mass is now also at its highest ever recorded value. What is melting, and where?
Not true.
Name ANY real danger from an increase in temperature by 2 degrees – while noting that right now, we are cooling off globally at a 2 degree per century rate..
Again not true.
Phil.,
Don’t you understand? This is your argument: “…what’s important is the trend“.
For instance, here is a trend that you can see. Or not.
[OK, I guess under current IPCC rules it isn’t fair to introduce actual facts.]
Finally, a response of “again not true” presupposes a complete understanding of that question — which is doubtful. Read the question(s) again. I’ll admit that it can’t be answered with a simple “not true.”
“Again not true.” Emotion, me boy. It’s in everyone’s downfall.
Did I seriously see Phil. ‘address’ issues with nothing more than the comments: “Not true” and “Again not true”? Wow, how much arrogance does THAT take!
I’m sure evryone is looking at the same data here but interpreting it differently depending on your understanding of the whole picture. I see a slight but upward trend over many yrs, the latest dip is but a statistical ANOMALY. Anomaly hunting is not way to make an absolute statement and to make one is to show a clear lack of critical thinking.
CoBEn2000 (07:23:26) :
I’m sure evryone is looking at the same data here but interpreting it differently depending on your understanding of the whole picture. I see a slight but upward trend over many yrs, the latest dip is but a statistical ANOMALY.
—
Yes. Temperatures have been steadily rising since the mid-1600’s. A LONG ways before any so-called CO2-induced global warming.
Fact remains, for all but 25 years of the past 230 years, CO2 has been flat while temperatures have risen, CO2 has been increasing while temperatures have fallen, and CO2 has been increasing while temperatures have stayed the same. Now, just what IS the relationship between CO2 and temperature that we are spending 9 trillion dollars on?
can’t we just say the evidence is in….There is none.
The new report shows that the IPCC has failed to provide any empirical evidence that shows that dangerous human-caused global warming is occurring. In particular:
• The 20th century was not the warmest in the last 1,000 years;
• No evidence exists that any measurable amount of the rise in global temperature over the last 50 years is a result of human influence;
• Current rates of ice/glacier melt are not unusual;
• Current weather (including tropical storms, droughts and floods) is not unusual;
• Current sea-level change is occurring at rates typical of recent times;
• No correlation has been demonstrated between increasing atmospheric carbon dioxide and dangerous temperature rise.
The NIPCC report is available for purchase or free download, at http://www.nipccreport.org/
If possible could someone please explain the discrepancy between these two different readings? Basically the following report says that the June 2009 anamoly was a +0.62 C. What am I missing? Is the difference due to a different starting point? Thanks for helping to educate me.
http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/oa/climate/research/2009/jun/global.html#temp
GISS and HADCRUT need to keep that trend line pointing upwards otherwise all hell will break loose. Their agenda is:-
1. While an extended solar minimum exists we cannot show that the Sun has a major impact on Climate and that man has nothing to do with it.
2, We must retain our tax payer funded jobs at all costs.
3. Our governments love the idea to impose an extra tax.
4. We must ensure Al keeps his prize.
Hello. I’m wondering whether I can post on old threads.