By Steven Goddard and Anthony Watts
From Steve: In May, WUWT reported on an apparent error in the Nansen ice extent data. It appears that we were correct, as Nansen has adjusted their 2009 extent data upwards.
The (light red) line below shows their ice extent data from May 2, 2009. It had been too low since their downwards adjustment in December.
But, as of June 5th, the 2009 extent has been corrected (dark red)
Also note that the 2007/2008 lines have not changed, and that ice extent was in the normal range for most of April and May.
From Anthony:
Interest in sea ice extent continues to run high, but there remains differences between different groups such as NSIDC and Cryosphere Today, which have both been plagued with SSMI sensor problems from the DMSP F13 satellite. NANSEN may have had the same issues with SSMI/F13, and if they did, they seem to have gotten them under control, possibly by switching to SSSMI/F17 as NSIDC did.
For example here is a page that NANSEN maintains that shows the differences between the newer AMSRE (that JAXA uses) and the SSMI. One of the images is an AMSR minus SSMI, and it looks like the two different satellites/sensors are in pretty good agreement, with areas along the ice edge (where ice/water boundaries are rapidly changing) showing noise differences where you would expect them to.
There’s another difference though between NANSEN and JAXA, and NSIDC/Cryosphere Today. The NANSEN and JAXA pages don’t have the kind of news updates that we are used to seeing from their USA counterparts. In that respect, we should probably thank NSIDC and CT for their willingness to provide timely updates and especially thanks to NSIDC’s Walt Meier for making guest posts and answering questions here.
Along the same lines, if you look at the press releases and news articles and compare them, NSIDC seems to lead in speaking to the press, followed by CT, with NANSEN/JAXA having very little press interaction.
Interestingly though, NANSEN offers forecasts of arctic sea ice extent here from their TOPAZ model with comparisons to both SSMI and AMSRE data plotted also.
What is interesting is that, at least for this year, the TOPAZ model has been underperforming both in forecasting area and extent. Perhaps this is why we don’t see much in the way of forecasts from NANSEN projected to the media. The model isn’t quite tuned yet. I applaud such caution when it comes to forecasting minimum summer sea ice extent in the spring to the media.
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The Caitlan survey was too badly flawed to support the predetermined results, so into the old memory hole it goes!
We will never hear anything more about it. Except once in a while, someone from the Guardian will comment how the Caitlan survey “proved” everything, with no further explanation.
OT – the UK met office has another well-balanced press release:
http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/climatechange/news/latest/heat.html
“The number of heat-related deaths we see could increase by up to 17 times by 2080, because of the increase in heatwaves, as a result of climate change.
A man frowning as the hot sun beats down on him
In London alone there could be a five-fold increase on the current death rate of 1.8 per 100,000, soaring to 10.7 per 100,000 by 2080. Other European cities could be hit even harder — Budapest death rates could increase more than 17 times from 5.4 per 100,000 to 93 per 100,000.
These figures, revealed from a study based on Met Office science, are far higher than previous estimates. Using Met Office projections of future climate, Simon Gosling, of the Walker Institute for Climate System Research at the University of Reading, has predicted how heat-related deaths would be affected in Boston, Budapest, Dallas, Lisbon, London and Sydney……..”
In the UK the met office prediction of high (barbecue) temperatures this summer hasn’t been realised yet – after a few days of seasonal warmth a week ago, we have had a week of low temperatures, heavy rain and forecasts of snow in the highlands of Scotland. Yes, I know it’s only weather but …….
There has recently been UK press coverage of the costs to seaside resorts of the inability of the Met Office to forecast tthe next day’s weather accurately. Over a recent bank holiday weekend they forecast continuous heavy rain for a resort on the South coast of the UK and the day turned out warm and sunny. The resort complained to the press that this misforecast had cost it in excess of £1M in lost revenue when vistors failed to turn up – a graphic example of the cost of getting forecasts wrong: and this was just one day ahead, not 70years!
Ice area is normal and well ahead of 2007 or 2008.
http://arctic-roos.org/observations/satellite-data/sea-ice/observation_images/ssmi1_ice_area.png
Flanagan’s interpretation of ice melt trends is as accurate as the MSM interpretation of unemployment trends.
It’s so warm in the Arctic these days that recent immigrants to the area from the West Indies have stolen Catlin’s oil drums to make musical instruments for their steel band.
Frank Lansner (03:19:25) :
The link you give has the images from cryosphere, and these are not being updated since the 7th of may of 2009. The melt is identical on all dates after that.
http://arctic.atmos.uiuc.edu/cryosphere/IMAGES/ARCHIVE/20090507.jpg
through
http://arctic.atmos.uiuc.edu/cryosphere/IMAGES/ARCHIVE/20090607.jpg
( change the date in the last part of the link) they are identical.
So, how they get the images on their main page is a mystery for me.
http://arctic.atmos.uiuc.edu/cryosphere/
artistic impressions
I think Nansen/Arctic Roos must be using a different baseline average for this chart (perhaps 2002 to 2008).
They also provide this chart of monthly NH sea ice extent (which is nearly identical to a chart I built from NSIDC monthly numbers) and even in March and April, the ice extent was 200,000 sq. kms to 300,000 sq. kms below the 1978 to 2008 average.
http://arctic-roos.org/observations/satellite-data/sea-ice/observation_images/ssmi_mdev_ice-ext.png
Anna V.
.. Clever me!! 🙂
From “Canada’s National Newspaper”:
“Apocalypse now
Whether it’s something in the air (such as greenhouse gases) or something in the economy (such as oil and food prices), the only field where there currently seems to be a boom is in gloom. But it’s not just ranters wearing bathrobes on street corners: Some of the most respected thinkers about science and society are issuing alarming prognostications about humanity coming to an end, with a bang or with a whimper.
Martin Mittelstaedt surveys the doom patrol”
“Martin Mittelstaedt is The Globe and Mail’s environment reporter.”
http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/world/apocalypse-now/article1172056/
Hi Steven,
again, it’s not an “interpretation” it’s just I’m using different data sets. I don’t really thrust the norwegian approach for they have been changing their curves regularly without any kind of explanation. Last time it was a downwards change and some people here were completely crazy about it (manipulation, blablabla). Now they change it upwards and suddenly they should become the reference?
I truly thrust JAXA the most, for they’ve been using recent technology and always had plausible values. There must be a reason why Anthony chose JAXA instead of the others for his website, no?
Polar bears are great. They are the poster child for the agenda. You can’t use pictures of frozen peaches in Hill country near austin as emotional proof of damage by extremely late and hard frosts.
We use human shield in pictures to see America bombing mosques and pleade for peace.
Polar bear shields are a lot more effective that using starving poor that are covered with flies to depict the consequences of high corn prices and food shortages.
Children also regarding schools and education are used as human shields to raise taxes. You really don’t want our children to miss out on education do you? Punish them for life. Make america non competitive?
Oh, yes and about the connection with La Nina: it is well-known that a delay exists between nina/nino conditions and global temperatures, usually between 3 and 6 months. Lower-than-average SST were observed in that region until the end of Feb/beginning of March. The effects of recently emerging nino-type conditions should be observed within a few months.
Steven Goddard (17:53:23) :
There isn’t any indication that the ice is “breaking up” in an unusual fashion.
http://nsidc.org/data/seaice_index/images/daily_images/N_daily_extent.png
Temperatures in the Arctic have been running below normal.
http://ocean.dmi.dk/arctic/meant80n.uk.php
Hudson Bay is still almost completely frozen over. I’m sure the Polar Bears are just fine. A shipper would have to be a complete idiot to try to get through the ice, which is ranging from 1.5 metres to 5 metres thick.
http://imb.crrel.usace.army.mil/newdata.htm
Thanks for the links — especially the Arctic temp one.
I did specifically say “September” in my point about shipping through the Northwest passage. Someone would be nuts (“Catlin nuts” to coin a phrase) to try that now. The multi-year animations of sea ice do, indeed, show a lot of recent flow out between Greenland and Iceland. I don’t have a link though.
But my main point is we shouldn’t hitch our wagon to such a vulnerable argument. Arctic sea ice is, by any reckoning, a lagging indicator. If the globe cools significant;y in the next few decades, it should be the last thing to recover. We are all well aware of the closed mindedness of the “true believers.” Let them win ANY sub-argument in the vast panoply of issues and they will find renewed faith.
Thus, I favor sticking to one, solid theme — warmer is better. My favorite line — “Nothing sucks like an Ice Age.” Another good one — “CO2 LITERALLY turns greens things up; CO2 and water are the ultimate green chemicals.”
If someone asks me whether I think CO2 affects global temperature, my answer is, “I hope so.” Then I show them how the Holocene period could be near it’s end and if CO2 can prevent the next ice age, I’m all for it.
What’s normal?
Why would anybody think a few decades record is normal for the Earth?
Science as it is now practised is pathetic.
OT, but this is another propagandist site, they are a fan of Jon Monbiot. On this site he is encouraging people to put together a step emergency plan or something like that. I did not waste my time to sign up and read anything in detail.Look at this site, apparently Yahoo.com gets its world news from these people. I looked for a science blog, but nothing popped out right away.
http://us.oneworld.net/organizations/media_allies
I have come up with a solution for the problem of the poor starving polar bears.
First I note that the people who are worried about this are the same ones who don’t want us to hunt poor Bambi. When it is pointed out that Bambi becomes overpopulated and destructive if not hunted, they want to introduce wolves. Far better to have Bambi die the natural death of being torn limb from limb by wolves than to be shot by a hunter.
With this in mind, my solution is to drop our convicted murderers in among the wolves. The murderers will die a natural death, the polar bears will be fed, and everyone should be satisfied.
“Ice area is normal and well ahead of 2007 or 2008.
http://arctic-roos.org/observations/satellite-data/sea-ice/observation_images/ssmi1_ice_area.png”
Steven, so is the NSIDC graph I posted earlier correct or still showing the effects of the bad sensor array?
I wondered how long it would be before Polar Bears (or “fluffy furry cold blooded ruthless killers who could outswim Mark Spitz”, as I like to call them) were mentioned. WUWT must be lying, you must be playing with the data!
Honest brokers (butter wouldn’t melt as if) WWF UK are promoting an insidiously mendacious, vomit-inducing, ad campaign on tv at present in an effort to extort money from the public – “Adopt a Polar Bear”, of all things. The only good thing about it is the voice-over, I am convinced it is by beautiful mature British actress Cherrie Lunghi, hubba-hubba (sorry it’s my age) put me out of my misery somebody! I understand that WWF UK get around £4.25M/yr of taxpayers hard earned dosh as part of their funding!). Excellent use of picture “framing” the two or three polar bears on the melting ice flow, if it was actually melting, rather like that iconic photograph of old. One cannot tell whether there was any ice in the background, e.g. squillions of km² of it, as a consequence.
Peter Wells:-)
You forgot to add that those fluffy furry wolves would patiently single fluffy furry Bambi out as a target, stalk it, then chase it, & chase, & chase, & chase, until the Bambi was completely exhausted & could run no further, heart pounding furiously, waiting for the enevitable death lunge, then they would rip & tear it limb by bloody limb, & it is still alive when then start adding the salt & pepper! Then the carrion move in to clean the carcass. Much more preferable to a practially sudden cessation of life by a single bullet.
BTW Its cold, dull, it’s been heavliy wet & stormy over the weekend & some parts of northern UK had sleet & snow on Sunday, that is June 7th!!!!! Pretty much bang on Weatheraction’s prediction/forecast two weeks earlier.
OT
I kept an open mind on the road to Washington
IT seems every Australian has an opinion on the Rudd government’s emissions trading scheme. Green groups have been calling for stronger emissions targets while businesses have been pushing for more assistance to be granted to affected industries.
Steve Fielding represents Family First in the Senate of Australia.
http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,25601203-7583,00.html
But what happens when one poor wolf doesn’t get enough to eat because we have a long string of skinny murderers and too many polar bears? Do we stop barely feeding the innocent up in the icy north and throw all of the murderers to the wolves further south? What is the carbon footprint of carrying innocent murderers all around the frozen tundra just to feed even more innocent polar bears?
What if a polar bear doesn’t like murderers, but prefers a vegan diet? Do we fly vegans up north just for that polar bear?
Global warming must kill 350,000 people per year to meet Kofi’s UN quota every year. Can we throw Eskimo’s to the polar bears if he has not met quota by December, and – if so – what happens to their seal skin parka’s? What if we don’t have enough murderers one year? Can we kill a few unused UN people instead?
Slightly OT, but it seems to be the conventional wisdom that less ice would create a positive feedback loop with insolation causing warmer water and even less ice. Is there any actual research that shows that there is more heat gained in the Arctic Ocean by the lack of ice than heat lost? Considering all of the factors such as angle of incidence, cloud cover, hours of daylight, and air temperature, I can easily imagine that open water above the Arctic Circle creates a cooling feedback and instead of warming.
Compare average air temps to average water temp and its a fair assumption that the ice acts an insulator preserving heat that would otherwise be lost to the atmosphere. Less ice would then equal more heat loss and a negative feedback.
See how important positive feedback is to AGW I assume there must be several published peer reviewed papers on this topic someone could direct me to. Thanks in advance.
A few general questions about ice extent:
How much history was used to compute the averages and standard deviations shown in that plot?
Is there any compelling reason to assume that ice extent follows a Gaussian distribution (for any given time interval)?
Thanks
You are right on the mark Shawn Whelan!
With reference to various comments above, I, also, would like to know the reasons for the difference between the jAXA and Nansen graphs.
Well there has to be a reason why they have all that ice up there in the arctic; we don’t have any here in the San Jose Bay area. But we have lots of sunshine down here, which evidently they don’t up there in the arctic.
Bit of a nuisance not having a lot of sunshine up in the arctic; when all that sea ice melts at the pole this summer, there won’t be enough sunshine to heat the oceans up to stop it coming back next september.
And just think how good it would be for our labido if we had a lot of sunshine in the arctic to reflect back out into space and cool the earth.
Yes I think we should ask President Obama for some ice in San jose so we can really cool the planet, and stop global warming. Then he wouldn’t need any carbon taxes.
OT but Gavin is looking for sympathetic reviewers to help sell his new book. Any volunteers?
http://www.guardian.co.uk/environment/2009/jun/08/network-climate-change-groundhog-day