You have to wonder- what were these guys thinking? The only media visual they could have chosen that would send a worse message of forecast certainty was a dart board…or maybe something else?
MIT’s “wheel of climate” – image courtesy Donna Coveney/MIT
The Greenhouse Gamble: Ronald Prinn, director of MIT’s Center for Global Change Science, and his group have revised their model that shows how much hotter the Earth’s climate will get in this century without substantial policy change. Standing with the group’s “roulette wheel” are, from left to right, Mort Webster, professor in the Engineering Systems Division; Adam Schlosser, principal research scientist at the Center for Global Change Science; Prinn, the TEPCO Professor of Atmospheric Chemistry; and Sergey Paltsev, principal research scientist, MIT Energy Initiative.
Popular Science writes:
It’s time to call your bookie, because the line on global warming is in. A new paper from MIT breaks down the odds of different outcomes from global warming, based on whether governments take action now or later. And if you’re taking that action, bet on “government getting involved” to beat the spread, as last week an important climate change bill made it out committee in the House of Representatives.
The bill, named the American Clean Energy and Security Act, would institute a cap-and-trade program, and reduce carbon emissions by 17 percent over fifteen years. The plan also calls for increased research into alternative energy, and provides $750 billion in subsidies to consumers to help offset the increase in energy cost the bill would cause.
See the compete article here
With that kind of cash payout, and since an MIT odds calculating machine is involved in making the modeling forecasts over 400 model runs, maybe this would be a more appropriate prop for the MIT photo op:
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If you take the Subsidy money to “help offset”, you in effect have signed the contract.
Don’t do it. It reads like an ARM mortgage.
Why … It’s the Big Spin!
how would one respond to this:
http://ams.allenpress.com/archive/1520-0477/87/8/pdf/i1520-0477-87-8-1073.pdf
the implication by the one who sent it to me was that the new report about weather stations is old news and not an issue.
Greg
“What’s the point of raising the cost of energy, and then subsidising the consumers for the rising cost of energy?”
How else do they get there cut???
Only the poor are going to suffer. All based on a false premise. I know a few business execs and they are wringing their hands in anticipation of the green revolution. A false economy built on a fraudulent idea. None of that money will ever get to who needs it. It will only go to those who are already wealthy, and even more pollution will be created, for they will have been forgiven their indulgences. Painful to watch as we do this to ourselves.
My immediate thought here was: “What! Only one guy in a suit!”
The other three are not obviously worried about loosing their jobs…
What they won’t show us that right after the picture was taken, they played rock, paper, scissors.
Winner gets to put on a blind-fold, take the magic “Climate Change” dart out of it’s glass case and blindly throw it at the spinning Wheel ‘O Climate.
At that point they will publish their “findings”.
I find the very use of “without policy” in this paper offensive. The message sent is that we are screwed unless the government steps in to save us. Not likely. There is nothing the government does as well as the private sector-except crew up and oppress people.
At the very least this is advocacy. But none of the results even make sense! WTF?!?
Ahhhh!!! The four stooges!
They used the wrong kind of Roullette… they need to play the Russian variant.
I think they may have convinced more people if they had Vanna turning the letters.
Wheel of Misfortune
Vanna White probably has more sense in her left big toe than all the MIT team put together.
They certainly haven’t mastered Gore’s grim cheerfulness while pretending to know something.
What is the tiny blue strip between greater than 7 degrees and 3-4 degrees of heating? Is it the fudge factor ‘no change or even cooling’ probability so they can later say “we never said it was a 100% certainty” 🙂
Regards
Michael
BTW the photographer needs to clean off some of that carbon pollution on her camera sensor
“he only media visual they could have chosen that would send a worse message of forecast certainty was a dart board”
Wheel, dart board, whats the difference?
But notice that the minimum change in there is 3-4 degrees. The most arrogant thing about it is the implication that without US policy, the Earth will warm 6 to 7 degrees, which is just plain idiotic. US emissions have been practically flat for a long time. There isn’t anything we can do with our policy decisions that will reduce increases in global emissions short of a massive nuclear power program. Even that would probably have no measurable impact. The rate of increase in emissions from other countries will swamp any reductions we make.
I think that we should take our choice of one of the characters above and suggest a “speech balloon” or a “thought balloon”.
Might be fun.
David Ball (20:22:32) :
I lovingly call it (Cap & Trade) Tax & Spill.
If you have noticed who was calling for the US to shut down all of it’s coal-fired plants, that should give you an idea of the source of the lobbying effort. It’s not US interests who are doing this, but it’s the US who will get set back 10 yrs in the ensuing economic melee.
Read between the lines on the MIT message.
I think I get what they are really saying in that photo op.
Re: the $750,000,000 from cap and trade. That figure [or close] has been in Obama’s budget since first proposed. It is wealth redistribution. Those that are productive get fleeced – approximately 46% of the American “taxpayers” pay no federal income tax now. Those folks will get the lion’s share of the $750m.
Guy#1… OK… this is just stupid.
Guy#2… Imagine that my fingers here on the table are some guy that’s about to be incinerated!!
Guy#3… (thought balloon) I’m failing all three of these guys…
Guy#4… Hehehe, it’s almost break time…
AH HA! … but that is the whole idea. Subsidize to get you to buy into this garbage, then decrease the subsidies until they are eliminated. Once they get the “go ahead” and implement, do you really believe the subsidies will stay in place? Where would the money come from? My friend, you will never see the subsidy! Its a complete smoke screen.
hi, i was wondering if there was an existing or planned ‘coalition of the intelligent’…
the ‘Dr Jekyll’ to the IPCC’s ‘Mr Hyde’……..how far are we from some sort of focused
effort against the ‘crusade of the ridiculous’ ‘CO2 as pollutant’ charade that is the IPCC?
Fools.
If the AGW people get the feeling I do about how sharp you really are, they have got to have a case of the heartburn coming on.
He is. They have. They do.
(Wait for it.)
You can tell by the lack of ad arguendum.
hereticfringe (20:39:45) :
Ahhhh!!! The four stooges!
They used the wrong kind of Roullette… they need to play the Russian variant.
With four of the six chambers loaded, and then each has to play 400 times. If they did not decorate the wall behind them then you might suggest that they are on to something with their models.
at least photo shop in some minorities so we don’t look environmentally racist