You have to wonder- what were these guys thinking? The only media visual they could have chosen that would send a worse message of forecast certainty was a dart board…or maybe something else?
MIT’s “wheel of climate” – image courtesy Donna Coveney/MIT
The Greenhouse Gamble: Ronald Prinn, director of MIT’s Center for Global Change Science, and his group have revised their model that shows how much hotter the Earth’s climate will get in this century without substantial policy change. Standing with the group’s “roulette wheel” are, from left to right, Mort Webster, professor in the Engineering Systems Division; Adam Schlosser, principal research scientist at the Center for Global Change Science; Prinn, the TEPCO Professor of Atmospheric Chemistry; and Sergey Paltsev, principal research scientist, MIT Energy Initiative.
Popular Science writes:
It’s time to call your bookie, because the line on global warming is in. A new paper from MIT breaks down the odds of different outcomes from global warming, based on whether governments take action now or later. And if you’re taking that action, bet on “government getting involved” to beat the spread, as last week an important climate change bill made it out committee in the House of Representatives.
The bill, named the American Clean Energy and Security Act, would institute a cap-and-trade program, and reduce carbon emissions by 17 percent over fifteen years. The plan also calls for increased research into alternative energy, and provides $750 billion in subsidies to consumers to help offset the increase in energy cost the bill would cause.
See the compete article here
With that kind of cash payout, and since an MIT odds calculating machine is involved in making the modeling forecasts over 400 model runs, maybe this would be a more appropriate prop for the MIT photo op:
What goes up must come down
Spinning wheel got to go round
Talking about your troubles it’s a crying sin
Ride a painted pony
Let the spinning wheel spin
You got no money, and you, you got no home
Spinning wheel all alone
Talking about your troubles and you, you never learn
Ride a painted pony
let the spinning wheel turn
Did you find a directing sign
on the straight and narrow highway?
Would you mind a reflecting sign
Just let it shine within your mind
And show you the colours that are real
Spinning Wheel
Blood, Sweat & Tears
Randall (19:52:41) :
What terrible body language. Whoever composed this photograph did a poor job;
That’s not the original photo. This is –
http://i44.tinypic.com/2071es5.jpg
MC (19:16:04) :
Well, MIT is home of the Hack. Maybe they think this is just another one.
http://hacks.mit.edu/
They should be forced to watch Feynman talk about organic farmers:
F. Ross (20:43:47)
I think “wheel of Misfortune” hits the mark. As the planet continues to cool, the folks in this photo will soon regret their political advocacy. I feel their institute will also regret the MIT Wheel of Misfortune.
Michael (20:49:10)
I also notice the very thin strip of blue. Perhaps the segments for stable climate, Dalton minimum and Maunder minimum got “smeared” by RegEM ?
OT. BBC now running a piece on gloom and doom for Chile’s wine industry http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/europe/8058080.stm due to climate change (all based on computer models of course). I have pointed out to the author, James Painter, the lack of warming in the Southern Hemisphere and Chile in general, and await his reply. Another week, another BBC warmer-story.
oops. Late night math error.
The blue slice indicates less than 2% chance of temperature rise being less than 3C.
Perhaps they should be relocated to Vegas? They could do with some female tough, just look at their outfit!
Apart from that, I object to the colour scheme; more chocolat brown and turqoise, please.
Is that it? Is that their “model”! Looks more like a tacky low-budget game show prop than something a professional would produce! A real Wheel of Misfortune! Where’s the golden telephone? BTW the guy on the left looks so serious compared to the rest, why? He should be beaming, but perhaps he wasn’t allowed to have any crayons! I used to love colouring in at junior school. I really do hope that no “public” money was used in this effort for if I was an American I would be furious!
It’s nice to finally get to see a picture of the modelers with their model. I am a bit confused, though. I thought the models were computerized. It appears they run the model each time by hand ;o)
The quote was:
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“… and provides $750 billion in subsidies to consumers to help offset the increase in energy cost the bill would cause.”
—————-
Well, let’s see: From precisely ~where~ will that money arrive?
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If we divide 750×10^9 (the subsidy) by 300 x 10^6 (the population of the US) we arrive at U$2,500 apiece.
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Well, it that’s what most people pay in their income taxes (Illegally so, I might add) then WHAT that amounts to is: NO BODY PAYS ANY TAXES!!!!
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Of course, when that program kicks in, there won’t be anybody working …
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Oh wait: Now I understand: The FED will print up MORE worthless money!
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YEAH! THAT’S IT!!!!
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The truth at last – that IS the ‘computer model’ they use!
So nice to know that the science is settled… 🙂
“Vegas Institute or Technology”
LOL!
OT this is a good article by Dr Willem de Lange explaining why he is a ‘Climate Realist’. (Unlike the MIT government grant wheel guys)
http://www.nzcpr.com/guest147.htm
Speech Bubble: We’re going to strap Anthony Watts to the wheel, spin it, blindfold ourselves and throw knives at it and see if we can hit the 3.4 degrees!
Speech Bubble: “Come to think of it, we won’t need the blinfolds – we’re already blinfolded.”
The more there is of this sort of thing, the more people will see through the warming agenda and go back to asking proper questions rather than following the ‘consensus’. This is what scientists should do. The recent contrast between the way warmers treated Ian Plimer in Australia, at his phenomenally successful book launch, and the way ordinary people treated him in the pub where he spoke about it afterwards, is telling….
http://blogs.theaustralian.news.com.au/janetalbrechtsen/index.php/theaustralian/comments/a_tale_of_two_worlds/
It is incredible just how 13th-century lyrics, set to music by Carl Orff, have resonance with the Wheel of Misfortune displayed by the wonks at MIT.
O Fortuna O Fortune,
velut luna like the moon
statu variabilis, you are changeable,
semper crescis ever waxing
aut decrescis; and waning;
vita detestabilis hateful life
nunc obdurat first oppresses
et tunc curat and then soothes
ludo mentis aciem, as fancy takes it;
egestatem, poverty
potestatem and power
dissolvit ut glaciem. it melts them like ice.
Sors immanis Fate – monstrous
et inanis, and empty,
rota tu volubilis, you whirling wheel,
status malus, you are malevolent,
vana salus well-being is vain
semper dissolubilis, and always fades to nothing,
obumbrata shadowed
et velata and veiled
michi quoque niteris; you plague me too;
nunc per ludum now through the game
dorsum nudum I bring my bare back
fero tui sceleris. to your villainy.
Sors salutis Fate is against me
et virtutis in health
michi nunc contraria, and virtue,
est affectus driven on
et defectus and weighted down,
semper in angaria. always enslaved.
Hac in hora So at this hour
sine mora without delay
corde pulsum tangite; pluck the vibrating strings;
quod per sortem since Fate
sternit fortem, strikes down the strong man,
mecum omnes plangite! everyone weep with me!
All the best,
The Goliards.
Mass “INSTITUTE of TECHNOLOGY”. These guys are the rock stars now in an era of IGNORANCE and AWE of science. I can imagine what an insufferable snob the guy in the suit is at a party. They drop a few diffy Q’s in the conversation and everyone nods their head approvingly. Take Congressman Waxman for example and his “I’m relying on the scientist … the IPCC” comment to explain why he hasn’t read his own 946 page Climate Bill. UTube link here =>http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tRcq0Lxffwc <=
If I sound resentful it is because I am. I started college at Drexel Institue of Technology and geaduated from Drexel University. Science was NOT cool then and guys with the pocket protectors and slide rules dangling from their belts (me) were about as far from cool as you could get.
I predict we will see a lot of college name changes including the word "Technology and science" in the years to come.
“You have to wonder- what were these guys thinking? The only media visual they could have chosen that would send a worse message of forecast certainty was a dart board”
Looks like you spectacularly missed the point.
Their message is “if you don’t believe us, you are playing roulette with the future of the planet”.
Experts inform the political debate. But the conclusions experts give should be incontrovertible, beyond debate, and if not, then all the caveats should be communicated as well. These are not experts. They are political hacks masquerading as scientists.
They are scum.
The Goracle and two lemons – love it!
Perhaps we should start calling him the Climate Bandit…
I’m sorry, but the gambling analogies keep popping up.
I wonder if this is the last chance saloon for the warmists? If the collective intellect of 3000 scientists (allegedly) and staggering amounts of computer power culminates in a prediction based on a wheel of fortune, then perhaps it’s time to admit defeat…
“The plan also… provides $750 billion in subsidies to consumers to help offset the increase in energy cost the bill would cause.”
Oh dear Lord, we’re doomed. Is “Western European” the first culture in history to commit suicide?
pout .. you stole my one arm bandit idea:P