Guest Post by David Archibald
This is a plot of three year windows on the Maunder and Dalton Minimum and the current minimum:
What it is showing is how the start of the current minimum compares with the starts of the Maunder and Dalton Minima. The solar cycle minimum at the start of the Dalton was a lot more active than the current one. If you consider that very small spots are being counted now, the activities are very similar. This is how they look without the Dalton:
If you consider the [current sunspot] counting problem, they are actually a pretty good match.
David Archibald
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gary gulrud (05:04:41) :
“these radionuclides are useless for retrieving the time histories of galactic-cosmic-ray and solar-activity parameters”
I.e., useless for absolute dating, like that attempted here by our docent. Individual cycles are too brief, but groupings of some few?
Bulletin of the Russian Academy of Sciences: Physics, 2009, Vol. 73, No. 3, pp. 378–380.
Solar Activity over Last Ten Thousand Years Based on the Data
Of 10Be and14C Cosmogeneous Isotopes
S. S. Vasiliev and V. A. Dergachev
Abstract
—The data on the 10Be accumulation rate in Greenland glacier (GRIP project) are discussed. Spectral analysis of the data over the last 9000 years is carried out. The spectral line intensity in the low-frequency range (periods from 100 to 1000 years) is much higher (approximately by a factor of 20), than in the frequency range
of the 11-year solar activity cycle. This fact suggests that the processes responsible for the variations in the10 Be production rate with a time scale of 100–1000 years significantly differ from those determining the 11-year cyclicity of solar activity
http://www.springerlink.com/content/29424621615w0272/fulltext.pdf?page=1
Bulletin of the Russian Academy of Sciences: Physics, 2009, Vol. 73, No. 3, pp. 375–377.
Effect of Long-Term Variability of Galactic Cosmic Ray Fluxes
on Climatic Parameters
O. M. Raspopov , V. A. Dergachev , P. B. Dmitriev, and E. G. Guskova
Abstract
—Using of 200-year variations in solar activity and geomagnetic dipole changes in the time interval to 100000 years ago it is shown geophysical parameters effectively influence climate change. This effect is realized through modulation of the intensity of galactic cosmic ray fluxes penetrating the atmosphere.
http://www.springerlink.com/content/978wt4l6w5h1w433/fulltext.pdf?page=1
Espen (11:05:07) :
Thank you for that link to the Triton article, very interesting. Yes, have heard about the Mars warming, but without solid evidence it isn’t of much use.
Jim Papsdorf here is the prediction – http://icecap.us/index.php/go/new-and-cool/prediction_of_the_may_2009_uah_msu_global_temperature_result/ .
More on volcanic activity and the Little Ice Age, Sporer, Maunder and Dalton Minimum:
Disaster goes global: the eruption in 1600 of a seemingly quiet volcano in Peru changed global climate and triggered famine as far away as Russia.
Since 1601, there have been five category 6 eruptions, including Laki (1783), Krakatau (1883) and Pinatubo (1991). However, none of these events spawned adverse societal effects on a global scale as Huaynaputina did. In part, Huaynaputina’s sulfur-rich plume could have rendered the peak’s eruption inordinately powerful.
Several studies indicate that the sulfur dioxide emissions from Huaynaputina were roughly comparable to those of Tambora. Therefore, says Verosub, the climatological cconsequences of the two volcanoes should be similar. Indeed, the chilling effects of Huaynaputina’s eruption in 1600 were substantial and were felt worldwide, he and Lippman report in the April 8 Eos.
Climate at the time could have played a role as well, says Verosub: In 1600, the world was in the midst Adv. 1. in the midst – the middle or central part or point; “in the midst of the forest”; “could he walk out in the midst of his piece?”
midmost of the Little Ice Age, typified by harsh winters, springs and summers much cooler and wetter than normal, and shorter-than-average growing seasons. A large volcanic eruption during that period would have depressed average temperatures even further–adding insult to injury, as it were.
The demographics of the era also played a role, Dunning speculates. During the 1500s, the population in many regions had doubled, and as the century progressed, the proportion of young males had grown even faster. As a result, many of the younger sons of the late 1500s ended up not receiving their fathers’ land, jobs or titles, producing what Dunning terms “a surplus population of angry young men.” And in general, food production wasn’t keeping up with population growth.
By the 1590s, Dunning notes, many parts of the world were experiencing a wave of starvations, rebellions and unrest. Then, he adds, “at this most excruciating moment, this other thing comes along to take things where they’d never gone before.” None of the countries of early modern Europe The early modern period is a term used by historians to refer to the period in Western Europe and its first colonies which spans the two centuries between the Middle Ages and the Industrial Revolution. were equipped to deal with such crises, Dunning says.
Is the situation any better today? Would modern technology and an increased global interconnectedness enable 21st century humans to better survive an immense, Earth-chilling eruption? Surprisingly, the answer to both questions may be no.
In the past, Verosub notes, most of a society’s foodstuffs foodstuffs npl → comestibles mpl
foodstuffs npl → denrées fpl alimentaires
foodstuffs food npl → were grown locally and in wide variety, so not every crop required the full growing season to mature. Therefore, any event that shortened a region’s growing season didn’t necessarily doom the entire harvest. Staples that formed the bulk of the diet were, for the most part, homegrown.
Today, on the other hand, most large-scale agricultural production focuses on a single crop that’s chosen to take full advantage of a region’s climate in order to realize maximum output–a severe disadvantage if the growing season is significantly trimmed by, say, a volcanic eruption.
Not only were preindustrial pre·in·dus·tri·al
adj.
Of, relating to, or being a society or an economic system that is not or has not yet become industrialized.
preindustrial
Adjective
of a time before the mechanization of industry farming practices possibly more resilient to total agricultural failure, people then “were used to living on the margin,” Dunning says. “Everybody knew hunger … and the idea that you should plan for a bad year was ingrained in these societies.”
Today, by comparison, the world’s surplus food supply would last only about 90 days, a number that’s steadily dropping as population increases. Additional pressure on food, water and other resources in some nations, such as China, stem from a rapidly increasing standard of living and the resulting changes in dietary preferences (SN: 1/19/08, p. 36).
Humans are consuming an ever-increasing fraction of the biological productivity at the base of Earth’s food chain, in some regions almost two-thirds of the biomass that would be available if humans weren’t clearing forests, farming or otherwise occupying the land (SN: 10/13/07, p. 235). Rising population, plus the shift in some areas to divert agricultural production to produce inedible commodities such as ethanol, has led many to suggest a modern-day food crisis is at hand.
“What happens if another major eruption happens today?” Verosub asks. “If we lower the growing season globally, are we looking at a food crisis? … We’ve got a really stressed system, and if we hit it hard, is it going to collapse? I think that’s worth thinking about.”
Full story: http://www.thefreelibrary.com/Disaster+goes+global:+the+eruption+in+1600+of+a+seemingly+quiet…-a0184482334
Also read: http://niche.uwo.ca/node/1704
Ron de Haan (16:35:34) :
Came to many of those same conclusions myself and have mentioned it a time or two but it is like telling kids things … sometimes you just have to let them find out for themselves. You can tell them until you are blue in the face but you can’t make them “get it” until they “get it” on their own.
For many, it will be when the event happens. As far as I know, no government on the planet has a plan on the shelf waiting to be enacted should something like a major volcano erupt that will impact a growing season. It is going to be a matter of everyone for themselves, I believe.
Jim Papsdorf (06:59:43) :
Erl Happ started his climate research because his vinyards in the SW of Western Australia were getting colder. At one point it looked like his southernmost vinyard would be getting too cold to grow shiraz.
To Crosspatch regarding what will governments do in case of a major impact (presume reduction) to the growing season. I feel strongly that biofuels based on fuel crops is one of the most brutal, ineffective means of climate mitigation. Their greenhouse gas reduction is minimal yet their affect on grain commodity prices can be huge. I saw an aricle that had a totally different perspective however, he saw biofuels based on food crops as an insurance policy. If there was a sudden change in climat the limited growing seasons and crop production, you’d merely divert crop for fuel back into the food system. An interesting perspective.
Sorry meant “food” crops not “fuel” crops.
crosspatch (16:49:43) :
Ron de Haan (16:35:34) :
“Came to many of those same conclusions myself and have mentioned it a time or two but it is like telling kids things … sometimes you just have to let them find out for themselves. You can tell them until you are blue in the face but you can’t make them “get it” until they “get it” on their own.
For many, it will be when the event happens. As far as I know, no government on the planet has a plan on the shelf waiting to be enacted should something like a major volcano erupt that will impact a growing season. It is going to be a matter of everyone for themselves, I believe”.
crosspatch,
We should increase food stocks under all circumstances.
As you know, a single volcanic eruption could cause a lot of trouble.
There are scientists stating that we are in for a big one at any moment in time.
As I said before, we have been very lucky during the last century.
It really pisses me off when an advertisement invites you to “voice your opinion”
but when you do voice your opinion, your posting is simply ignored.
This web site does not except skeptic comments.
Welcome to our Future World. Totalitarianism Made by the UN.
Global Climate Debate
Voice your opinion before the UN Climate Change Conference 2009
http://www.cop15.dk/blogs
Wattsupwiththat?
Thank you for those that commented using temperature numbers. I’m still not quite sure what the impact of a Maunder Minimum is, but it seems that some are still thinking of the range of 2.2C if it’s a Dalton Minimum, as stated in Mr. Archibald’s March 2009 paper. (good paper, thanks). The April paper on US agricultural production is enlightening also, discussing a 20% reduction in US agricultural production in the case of a Dalton like minimum.
Ron de Haan your thoughts were interesting also. At first read, I thought that the potential negative outcomes on food production were a little far fetched. In the US we have a tremendous amount of land and water that could be used to grow food, that is either not used due to government rules or not productive enough to produce market competitive crops, but still productive enough to produce plenty of food. After all, land that supports grape vines can be replanted with potatoes at 6 C less. But on second thought, in the market place the value of food will be translated into money and while I living in the US will just pay more, people on the bottom of the food chain, in third world countries will starve again, like they did 30 years ago. Bummer that India developed nukes since then…
For who is interested:
There are new pictures taken from Chaitén Volcano in Chili, an ongoing eruption that started just over one year ago.
This is a remarkable eruption and one of the most fascinating aspects is the speed of the dome building process.
Quakes up to magnitude 4.2 shake up a very unstable dome.
With this volcano, everything is possible.
http://volcanism.wordpress.com/2009/05/09/chaiten-bulletin-no-91-5-may-2009/
John W. (07:05:05) :
Doug (19:11:52) :
… but it seems that some are still thinking of the range of 2.2C if it’s a Dalton Minimum, as stated in Mr. Archibald’s March 2009 paper. (good paper, thanks).
Doug
Why don’t you tell me what’s “good” about the “paper”, then I’ll tell you what’s bad about it.
Geoff Sharp (00:41:29) :
Geoff Sharp (20:43:19) :
Has there ever been studies to compare the Usoskin/Solanki/INTCAL98 data with Schove’s work?
No takers?….maybe there is something here then, I might dig and see what I can come up with. If this record is good it will be another nail in the coffin for the Babcock believers.
Does anyone have a text file of Schoves work that can be entered into a spreadsheet?
Carsten,
I think this is the article on warming and albedo changes on Mars that is the source of newspaper headlines on Mars warming a year or two ago: http://humbabe.arc.nasa.gov/~fenton/pdf/fenton/nature05718.pdf
Doug (19:11:52) :
It not a matter of replacing grapes with potatoes.
We will lose a whole stretch of land in the North and the South as low temperatures
make it impossible to plant crops.
A colder climate in general will reduce agricultural output by 30%.
On top of that there is an enhanced risk of crop loss due to extreme weather events.
It’s about big scale crop loss due to extreme weather events like droughts, unseasonal frost, flooding, large scale hail fronts and crop disease.
There is proof that during the Little Ice Age, there have been several extreme weather events, caused by the effects of a colder climate and volcanic emissions that have caused global loss of food crops.
I think it is possible that the combination of a loopy jet stream creates weather extremes and causes some areas of the northern hemisphere to be extremely cold while just one state away it will be extremely hot along the same latitude. The lack of water vapor from colder oceans also sets up middle hemisphere drought. However, I believe this drought is part of the dust cycle that is necessary for the regeneration of iron depleted oceans and other cyclic uses. These various cycles may work together to be the source of the roller coaster energy required for oscillations.
I am following all the discussions on proxies for temperature and magnetic status of the sun over time with interest and some trepidation – the latter because I have completed my own review but too late to incorporate fully the latest papers and discussions on whether the beryllium profiles give us as much a handle on things past as we once thought.
But whatever the current state of that discussions – some things are clear to me:
1. There is a large oceanographic literature that can correlate sea surface temperatures with various solar cycles – from 11, 22, 80 (Gleissberg) and 220 (de Vries); and a large literature also on long term cycles in stalagmites denoting the strength of the Asian monsoon; together with other paleo-ecological studies on lake sediments, ocean sediments, and tree rings – which show on spectral analysis, various solar cycles.
2. So there is no question in my mind that there is a correlation between solar cycles and climate – and the Maunder Minimum in sunspot numbers coincides with changes in be-10 and with cooler temperatures, especially in the northern hemisphere.
3. But we do not know the exact mechanism(s) – and there are several candidates: svensmark’s clouds; variable TSI and UV; shifts in the jetstream perhaps from UV effects on the polar vortez; and effects upon the global electric current. All of these may play a role.
4. With the Dalton period – the CET data show a dip (but there was also a major volcano) – but I would not expect much of an impact for such a small period of solar quietness – with the Maunder there is time for cumulative impact over decades.
5. Here is what I think: the best candidate is fluctuation in UV (this was researched at NASA by Drew Shindell who wrote several papers indicating that during the MM/LIA the jetstream was shifted southward by the UV effects on the polar vortex). And I think Svensmark’s clouds also play a role – the Sloan and Wolfendale ‘debunking’ was actually a confirmation of the effect but at about 25% of the observed changes (not that I think there methodology was very convincing).
6. If it is a jetstream effect – and the last two years of jetstream shifts corroborates the theory – it will be cumulative – as the tracking determines the degree to which upper ocean heat stores are depleted (they are not homogenous but centred in the North Atlantic and North Pacific) or recharged – right now the Pacific gyre has been depleted and the Atlantic is on its last legs. The Maunder Minimum/LIA is thus a feature created by depleted oceanic heat stores, shifting storm tracks and blocking highs that affect both summer climate in western Europe (cool and wet with bad harvests), central and eastern Asia (drought) and winters in Europe (very cold and dry) – in the USA I guess there would be drought in the mid-West, cold winters and late planting in the northern states. Temperatures don’t have to shift much to be devastating – a prolonged -0.5C northern hemisphere would be quite enough to depress crop yields – but the wet summers and late frosts would be as important.
The best way to check these theories is to study the current situation: the UV status, the polar vortex, the shifting jetstream (which – Pamela, looks to me to be further SOUTH and LESS loopy – as if flattened, in this Spring, and affected by feedbacks from ocean cooling that shift the standing wave but it is hard to find any data on historical trends). And of course, the global temperature.
And finally on Landscheidt – the John Daly material gives references for papers in which he predicted the 1990 solar grand maximum of cycle 22, the cycle 23 downturn; the time-lag of 8 years from 1990 to the global max temp of 1998 (and the El Nino); and also the 2002 El Nino, after which he predicted La Nina would predominate – in his 2003 E&E paper he successfully predicted that ‘by 2007’ the masking effect of El Nino would be over and global cooling would become obvious.
So I am inclined to go with his 2030 as the deep point of the next Maunder-type minimum of which he said there was an 85% probability – and 15% Dalton.
Doug (19:11:52) :
“Countries in the third world”, fortunately, live in more benign climates, but in some of them, instead of eating their own crops, like potatoes, they eat wheat and they will pay more. By the way, they get used to it because of the several aid programs of free (donated) food.
Peter Taylor (08:33:52) :Your climate overview is really a didactic one.
Interesting article with links about cosmic ray- cloud link and computer models.
http://theresilientearth.com/?q=content/attempt-discredit-cosmic-ray-climate-link-using-computer-model
David – Many hope you are wrong, however I plan as if you are right.
SteveSadlov (11:08:21) : That’s it: Way south!!
Espen (05:08:44) :
Carsten,
I think this is the article on warming and albedo changes on Mars that is the source of newspaper headlines on Mars warming a year or two ago: http://humbabe.arc.nasa.gov/~fenton/pdf/fenton/nature05718.pdf
Thank you! It’s a small world. I now remember I have run across Lori Fenton a few years ago. She used (with my permission) one of my Mars images in a PowerPoint presentation named “Global Warming on Mars: How Albedo Changes Impact Climate”, see page 2 of
http://humbabe.arc.nasa.gov/~fenton/ppt/GCM_fenton.ppt
How could I forget 🙂