Guest Post by David Archibald
This is a plot of three year windows on the Maunder and Dalton Minimum and the current minimum:
What it is showing is how the start of the current minimum compares with the starts of the Maunder and Dalton Minima. The solar cycle minimum at the start of the Dalton was a lot more active than the current one. If you consider that very small spots are being counted now, the activities are very similar. This is how they look without the Dalton:
If you consider the [current sunspot] counting problem, they are actually a pretty good match.
David Archibald
I think the INCONVENIENT MINIMUM!
Not bad, but I think the prize has to go to the AD HO MINIMUM.
Not mine. Forget who it was, but (s)he should step up and take a bow for that one.
It is the very model of a modern Maunder minimum
(I wanted to be plainer but I couldn’t find a synonym)
And thanks to modern media it’s not believed by anyone
The sun has done a bunk and we will freeze for a millennium
And so I’ll see you later; I am off for the equator
For is the very model of a modern Major-minimum
As I have remarked before we certainly know that the Artic has shown sudden periods of melting lasting a deade or so and that there have been five such events since just before the American war. Since we do not know why I would hesitate to call this a cycle: I would prefer to say that the current period does not seem unusual.
I would also caution about CET data because although it is a very complete and indeed a remarkable record the area is small and on the edge of major weather systems and as a region during the DM was both densely populated and heavily urbanised. By the DM not only did the towns burn coal but the demand for coal for smelting iron was enormous and concentrated at the heart of the CET in the Black Country.
And it was not called the Black country for nothing as contemporary writers named it. At that date the blast furnaces had open throats and were very inefficient, the ore quality was poor and coking was done by the surface burning of soft coal so consuming three to four times as much coal per ton of pig iron than fifty years later when harder coals, richer ore, coking ovens and cone fed blast furnaces had beome the norm.
Urban heat Island effect? try industrial heat island effect.
Kindest Regards
The inherent unpredictability of the Sun eliminates us from understanding if we are in a Dalton or Maunder or another un-named cycle outside our data set. Our ability today to see sunspots the size of a large building, will also give us different data than during the Maunder when it took one the size of a planet to be seen.
This will all play out and the AGW crowd will again blame me for having Air Conditioning, and the industrialized world for.. whatever. Warming, Cooling, Storms, No storms, Snow, No snow, etc. The true effect is academic to their arguments against man, technology, etc.
evanmjones – Gilbert and Sullivan minimum! Great job! You did The Pirates of Penzance proud! Take a bow!
I don’t want to be disrespectful, but I must agree with D. Archibald’s comment about Dr. Svalgaard dismissing the idea of solar driven climate, I have read numerous questions by lay-people and folks who are qualified and know their stuff and the Dr.’s answers do seem to brush it off as nonsense.
It is such a pity that Landsheidt has passed, as I am sure these two gentlemen would bring and exchange some interesting points.
Matt N: Landscheidt predicted a Maunder-type minimum bottoming in +-2030.
There will be huge problems IF this does occur ( No scientist is 100% right, so we cannot dismiss or accept every prediction with confidence) but if it does occur it will be an absolute disaster, 6.5 billion people were not on the planet 400 years ago, so the food shortages and erratic weather patterns experienced back then would affect the current population much more. This is made even worse by the world government’s complete lack of planning for such an occurrence, it is not even being taken into consideration.
BTW that Nostradamus link is misleading, I clearly remember reading one of the “doomsday” predictions advertised in the same manner in 2005, World War III was supposed to erupt viciously in June 2006… hmmm well that didn’t happen…
SC 24 and Epidemics !!!!
NPR yesterday interviewed Dr Peter Palese of Mt Sinai School of Medicine who has been studying the seasonality of influenza illness. He reports that at lower temperatures and absolute humidity, sneezed influenza droplets tend to float due to their smaller size. When temp and AH increase, the droplets get larger and fall to the floor and hence are less capable of causing an infection. The smaller size of the winter droplets also contributes to enhanced transmission by making it harder for the cilia of the lung to brush them out.
Given that David Archibald sees about a 2.1Degree Centigrade drop in mean temperatures in mid-latitude areas over the next decade, not only are we likely to see a big drop in agricultural productivity-30% for the Midwest US- but the extended winter season is likely to give us a greater exposure time to H1N1and H5N1and any other new pig-human-avian viri which are out there.
http://www.npr.org/templates/story/story.php?storyId=103910735
http://www.davidarchibald.info/papers/QuantifyingAgProductivityResponseSolarCycle%2024.pdf
David, if we purely look at statistics, there is good reason to suggest that the upcoming grand minimum might be more Maunder like. I believe there is another way to look at it. It is a matter of timing of what causes grand minima. According to my theory, SC4 experienced what causes grand minima not long after its peak, whereas SC23 experienced the same thing very late in the cycle, leaving the way forward for SC24 to take the full brunt. The Maunder minimum also experienced late timing, but the mechanisms involved are way stronger than what we are about to experience. There’s not much juice left in the tank.
Perhaps we can discuss this when you are in Melbourne in a couple of weeks.
UK Sceptic (01:40:29) :
“If what we are witnessing is the onset of a Maunder type minimum then surely, once it has been confirmed, this will kill warmist driven alternative energy policies stone dead?”
Are you sure? Given the insanity, and complete ignoring of the facts that I have seen over the past several years on our climate, I’m sure “Climate Change” would be renamed “Climate Chaos” and it would still somehow be seen as “consistent with” AGW theory. Since AGW theory cannot be falsified, then anything (even a bear s###g in the woods) is seen as “consistent with” AGW theory.
Like you I live in hope that ice on thames might cause a double-take with many, but given history, I’m certain the blind would ignore it – “see no evil, hear no evil, speak no evil” etc.
@ur momisugly ralph ellis (04:38:57) “Why will our age be any different?”
The size and density of the population relative to carrying capacity might be one reason.
The dependence of the population on non-local food sources might be another.
The imbalance of population vs natural game another.
Peak Oil, another.
The destructiveness of weapons of mass destruction another…
John Finn (04:26:11) :
On this and other blogs I have, from time to time, asked for evidence that the Dalton minimum period was in fact significantly colder than other periods in the 19th century. So far – nothing! None of the long term temperature records (apart from one, perhaps) indicate anything remarkable during the DM. A few tenths below the then average, perhaps, but nothing to write home about.
May I say the same thing, then, about the current warming? A few tenths above the average for what — the last century? Nothing to write home about!
Seriously — using HadCRUT3, the average anomaly for the 20th Century was -0.14. For the last 30 years of the 20th Century it was 0.08. So we are talking about a warming of little more than two tenths of a degree.
Temps did dip during the Dalton Minimum. Here’s one example:
http://www.kolumbus.fi/tilmari/uppsala801816.jpg
And this isn’t the example cited in Wikipedia (if that is the “apart from one, perhaps” example you were alluding to).
Personally, I wouldn’t expect a Dalton-like minimum to push the Earth back into a “Little Ice Age.” That was probably a combination of lower solar activity, and higher volcanic activity. Lacking the latter, a Dalton-like minimum might well contribute to a more moderate rate of temperature increases, or no increase at all, compared to what we’ve seen in recent decades. That would still be significant. But combine it with a dramatic increase in volcanic activity, and it will be a world like none of the living have experienced.
MattN (05:16:31) :
“We are absolutely seeing and counting spots today that would not have been seen or counted 350 years ago. Apples to apples, we appear to be Maundering.
What did Landechidt predict again? A Maunder or Dalton-type minimum?”
Landscheidt has predicted a Maunder like minimum.
Deep minimum reached by 2030.
evan
My kids were just in a musical, the pirates of Penzance(sp) an that diddu of yours made me laugh. thanks for the humor.
Cheers
Basil (07:31:46):
“But combine it with a dramatic increase in volcanic activity, and it will be a world like none of the living have experienced”.
Yes, the volcanic eruptions (VEI7) magnitude were quite frequent during that period in time and were without a shiver of doubt responsible for the most extreme
meteorological events.
As most volcanic activity (and earth quakes) have been observed during periods with a minimum or a maximum we must conclude that humanity has been very lucky for the past 100 years.
Our current civilization is only one VEI 7 eruption away from a big pile of trouble.
>>As David points out, one cannot fiddle with the
>>10Be data, and they clearly show no change in
>>HMF between 1600 and 1945, apart from the
>>regular 11-year cycle
Brilliant. So we cannot tell the number of Sunspots in the 1600s, because they are sooo difficult to count, but we do accurately know the exact values for the Helio Magnetic Field for the same era. I did not know that SOHO was launched that early.
.
But for the enviros, we could be decades further ahead in the development of genetically engineered crops (cereal grains in particular) that can grow well in colder climates.
But for the enviros, we would have much greater nuclear power generating capacity in the U.S. and likely in other countries as well.
The enviros get frantic about an alleged crisis but refuse to permit the development of potential solutions (at least those that might actually work).
The developing El Nino in 2009, and the possibility of another one following in it’s footsteps in 2010, does not bode well for a continual cooling of the earth as some have suggested. At least not like the drop in 2008 or in the near term.
Here’s what some need to consider with the sun-climate connection. This forcing relationship is built more around how the dice get loaded with certain oceanic and atmospheric teleconnections. And these relationships are related to the cyclical nature of different space weather variables and how they wax and wane.
So certain cycles will tend to exhibit different sets of variables and this is indirectly related to their strength and length. Which then makes the earth’s climate system behave differently. Hence different weather-climate patterns.
@ur momisugly John Finn
Google ‘Little Ice Age Evidence’.
Isn’t the internet great?
@ur momisugly John Finn
Paraphrasing what Leif on this forum has said, weather records are often too noisy to be used as any kind of trend markers, I do know that the east coast of America was rather chilly during the Revolutionary War, what with Valley Forge and all… Thing is, turns out, it was colder in New York the year AFTER Valley Forge. 1779 was most likely the coldest winter New York has seen in some time.
Newsday has an article quoting from a (rare) book written by a guy who chronicled North American weather histories.
Long Island froze over to the extent that Hessian mercenaries defected by walking the 12 miles from Long Island to Connecticut. The ice between New Jersey, Staten Island, and Manhattan was frozen hard enough to allow a convoy of horses and cannon to be moved across the ice. (those with experience driving a car on ice would know what thickness of ice would allow for this)
While I’ll agree that correlation does not equal causation, I’ve noticed it’s difficult (but not impossible) to find significant cold records in times of high SSN.
.
>>“Why will our age be any different?”
A number of reasons why we may suffer a population calamity have been given. Of these, I think that food production will be the greatest problem. We are highly dependent on higher latitude crops, rather than the efforts of African and South American farmers, and a dramatic cooling in the higher latitudes may well reduce crop yields.
America will survive this, as they can just rein in their vast exports, but this may have severe impacts elsewhere in the world. And it is true that a hungry world is a dangerous world.
Ok, it could be ‘interesting times’.
.
Alex (23:53:57) : “My first prediction came true 🙂 The first region is indeed a plague…”
According to the American Heritage dictionary:
Plague: n., 1. A widespread affliction or calamity, especially one seen as divine retribution.
2. A sudden destructive influx or injurious outbreak: a plague of locusts; a plague of accidents.
3. A cause of annoyance; a nuisance: “the plague of social jabbering” (George Santayana).
4a. A highly infectious, usually fatal, epidemic disease; a pestilence…
I don’t recall seeing a Solar Locust Count in any of the charts. Or any cases of Solar Flu this week. Could you mean plage, by any chance?
REPLY: Great, locusts from the sun. One more of the plages of Pharaoh to worry about 😉 – Anthony
Landscheidt predicted a Maunder Minimum type of cooling … looks like Archibalds conclusions are once again showing that Landscheidt was correct ….. correct YEARS before this happened.
I can only ask .. when will the Science community stop making the excuse that he dabbled in Astrology, thus anything he said is bunk. I’ve read his stuff on John Daly, and there was no astrology in it. It was all mathmatical calculation.
For zose who noticed that ze Napoleon’s Retreat chart is labeled in ze Frönch degrees Raeioumur, here’s ze conversion, left to right on ze chart:
°Reaumur °Celcius
-30 -37.5
-24 -30
-20 -25
-11 -13.75
-21 -26.5
-9 -11.25
0 0
That’s COLD! I’ll take rice paddies in Asia over Russia in winter anytime.
http://bourabai.narod.ru/landscheidt/new-e.htm
New Little Ice Age instead of global warming [PDF 429K]
by Dr. Theodor Landscheidt
Energy and Environment 14, 327-350. – 2003
Abstract:
Analysis of the sun’s varying activity in the last two millennia indicates that contrary to the IPCC’s speculation about man-made global warming as high as 5.8° C within the next hundred years, a long period of cool climate with its coldest phase around 2030 is to be expected. It is shown that minima in the 80 to 90-year Gleissberg cycle of solar activity, coinciding with periods of cool climate on Earth, are consistently linked to an 83-year cycle in the change of the rotary force driving the sun’s oscillatory motion about the centre of mass of the solar system. As the future course of this cycle and its amplitudes can be computed, it can be seen that the Gleissberg minimum around 2030 and another one around 2200 will be of the Maunder minimum type accompanied by severe cooling on Earth. This forecast should prove skillful as other long-range forecasts of climate phenomena, based on cycles in the sun’s orbital motion, have turned out correct as for instance the prediction of the last three El Nino years before the respective event.
*******************************
11. Outlook
We need not wait until 2030 to see whether the forecast of the next deep Gleissberg minimum is correct. A declining trend in solar activity and global temperature should become manifest long before the deepest point in the development. The current 11-year sunspot cycle 23 with its considerably weaker activity seems to be a first indication of the new trend, especially as it was predicted on the basis of solar motion cycles two decades ago. As to temperature, only El Niño periods should interrupt the downward trend, but even El Niños should become less frequent and strong. The outcome of this further long-range climate forecast solely based on solar activity may be considered to be a touchstone of the IPCC’s hypothesis of man-made global warming.
***********************************
Questions for those who have researched Theodor Landscheidt:
It seems to me that predictive ability is the acid-test of scientific hypothesis.
Can anyone confirm or falsify Theo’s claims to have predicted three El Nino’s?
Also, when did Theo first predict global cooling at 2030? This E&E paper is dated 2003.
Best Allan
Sources:
http://www.john-daly.com/guests.htm
http://landscheidt.auditblogs.com/papers-by-dr-theodor-landscheidt/
For moment I thought I had surfed over to Climate Progress or Real Climate.
So much doom and gloom being predicted on so little evidence!
What Mr. Archibald presents is interesting, but it has some pretty big holes. While he acknowledges the biggest of those holes, many (too many?) of the posters seem to assume the holes either aren’t there or are insignificant.