UPDATE:
SEE THE UPDATED SWPC FORECAST HERE
Leif Svalgaard writes:
NOAA/SWPC will be releasing an update to the Solar Cycle 24 Prediction
on Friday, May 8, 2009 at noon Eastern Daylight Time (1600 UT) at a
joint ESA/NASA/NOAA press conference.
Details below:
Solar Cycle 24 Prediction Update on Friday, May 8 at noon EDT
NOAA/SWPC will be releasing an update to the Solar Cycle 24 Prediction on Friday, May 8, 2009 at noon Eastern Daylight Time (1600 UT). The prediction will be available here at that time.
The charts on this page depict the progression of the Solar Cycle. The charts and tables are updated by the Space Weather Prediction Center monthly using the latest ISES predictions. Observed values are initially the preliminary values which are replaced with the final values as they become available.
Recent Changes to Solar Cycle Values and Plots
March 2, 2009 — The Solar Cycle 24 Prediction Panel has not issued any updates to their prediction. However, the Space Weather Prediction Center, and the Chair of the Prediction Panel decided to implement what they believe to be an obvious change to the plotted data. The two predictions, of maximum being either a SSN of 90 or a SSN of 140 remain intact. Once the date of solar minimum is known, that is all the information needed to arrive at a prediction curve. The panel prediction of solar minimum in March, 2008 has been eclipsed. Minimum will now occur no earlier than August, 2008. For every month beyond March 2008 that minimum slips, it is necessary to shift the prediction curves by the same amount. SWPC commenced doing so in mid-February and will continue to do so, unless or until the prediction panel sets a new predicted date for the time of solar minimum.
Description of Solar Cycle Progression displays
Table of Recent Solar Indices (Preliminary) of Observed Monthly Mean Values
Table of Predicted Values With Expected Ranges — High Prediction Table — Low Prediction Table
Solar Cycle 24 Prediction Issued April 2007, updated May 2008
For additional information or comments, contact SWPC.CustomerSupport@noaa.gov
Gotta love another update. Mea Culpa, Mea Maxima Culpa. To borrow from Python, fetchez le chemise des cheveux.
This repetitive and predictible NOAA “forecast revision” routine now resembles a kid wiggling a loose tooth with his finger. It’s mildly entertaining, but quickly gets very annoying. Just yank the damned thing out by the roots already.
At least if we get an SC24 spot out of that CME (say, by the weekend?), then the professional Heliopeople can get their hopes up that we have passed the SC23/SC24 minimum. It would good to see them perk up a little, even if I am convinced that Livingston et al are closer to the truth than anyone else, and any hopes for a near-term minimum will be dashed.
Re: Google adverts
I for one actually like the google ads, as I’m fascinated by the algorithms that gin-up the ads that I see. Which is to say that I am a simpleton.
(BTW are the ads tuned to the site content INCLUDING the Comments? By which I mean if we mounted a campaign to mention say Halle Berry in every post, would we see Halle Berry links?
Alternately, are they tuned to an individual’s browser record, and WUWT is just the “way in”? I ask because (a) I don’t see any Halle Berry links, but (b) I did get one for Solar Power Panels in Dallas.
Don’t blame Dr. Hathaway for SC 24 not behaving as it should. Good Doc has been busy man. His latest artistic contributions can be found here:
http://solarscience.msfc.nasa.gov/presentations/20090207Astrofest_SunspotCycle.ppt#16
He quotes Gleissberg as 8 cycles (Gleissberg himself said 7 cycles se my previous post)
Finally he invites everybody to have a go at SC24 prediction.
As the oceans cool and the sun dims, Obama races towards the great CO2 Cap and Tax on mankind to pay for his agenda of spreading the wealth and punishing big companies. In the end the poor will be hurt the most as always.
Someone STILL thinks its going to be a 140 peak?
Laughable…
In Washington it is customary to dump “bad news” on Fridays.
Wyatt A (11:02:15) :
> Ric,
> About the ad: it’s not that they can’t spell “two” it’s that they can’t spell “to”.
Oops. That “too.”
O/T
Pictures of climate change, courtesy of Gavin Schmidt and photographer Joshua Wolfe, now 100% polar bear free:
http://www.npr.org/blogs/pictureshow/2009/05/capturing_climate_change.html?ps=bb2
The article asks:
“How do you explain the big-picture risks of subtle changes like rising sea levels, fluctuating crop yields and shifts in ocean currents — and, more important, how do you make people care? One solution: with photographs…”
…of extreme weather events, forest fires, coastal erosion, our old freind Mendehall, kudzu, tiny Costa Rican frogs and Chicago (because it was really hot there for a few days in 1995).
The article also takes a moment for deep thought:
“It’s hard to believe that for a subject as trendy as climate change, there are so few photographers who specialize in it.”
I particularly resent the greenpeace ad!
I guess that The NASA of the 1969 created a myth of scientific excellence that some of those now working there believe themselves a kind of Gurus uttering mantras or Popes issuing ex-cathedra bulls directly dictated from above (in this case by the ALmighty Lord of the Netherworld).
The news conference will probably not even mention the sun, NASA knows that the sun is just a benign orb with barely enough power to run the shuttles submlimator. The conference will be a fiasco where it degenerates into arguments about the position of the placement of adds on this blog.
Interesting post!
http://politicsdecoded.com/2009/05/08/swineflu/
Down you got me going,
going round you got me going,
going down,
dow-dow-down,
dow-dow-down…
So the sun is a fan of early rock and roll?… who knew…
Why not to send JH et Al. in a shuttle to orbit to take a bath of reality?. Tell them it is a bonus before retirement!! 🙂
Lief states the lack of sunspots has little impact on global temperatures, that being the case WHY all the interest.
This common body,
Like to a vagabond flag upon the stream,
Goes to and back, lackeying the varying tide,
To rot itself with motion.
-William Shakespeare
ANTHONY AND CLEOPATRA, I, iv
AKD (13:26:02) :
Pictures don’t say anything about the science. Those are just used as emotional triggers. Just like Gore’s movie (which must contain about 30,000 pictures… i.e. 30 frames/min for 100 minutes) is full of lies and deception. Like the film, the pictures don’t show the link between CO2 and global warming.
Perhaps NOAA Space Weather should start using the word “forecast” not “prediction”. We all realize forecasts are not exact and can be amended but are less tolerant of the same for predictions. It may seem like symatics but isn’t that what the gripping is all about, the constantly moving “prediction”?
As for the ads, I do not believe Anthony has any control over which ads show or when they show. He does have the ability to have Google Ads omit any URL he chooses but must type each and every one he wants omit into the system. I “predict” he will not even attempt to do this. So take them as they appear and hope it helps to keep this site as great as it is.
Thanks for the ad.
Tom in Florida (14:19:16) :
Perhaps NOAA Space Weather should start using the word “forecast” not “prediction”.
It would be better PROPHESY, because THEY are NEW AGE PROPHETS, and, as all prophets they will prove WRONG.
This is the first article that the ads have not automatically been bypassed when I clicked to see the “rest of the story” (H/T to a great newsman). And, for these ads, I actually found that solar ad useful.
Maybe if we each hit the donation box a little more often to PAY for the great product we are receiving Anthony wouldn’t need ad revenue. But think of it this way… money seeks out those who fill a demand, how much do you think RC could get for their viewership?
Thank you for the idiot’s guide to sunspots. Now, can someone explain what the A-Index and K-Index are on the box in the right column? They seem to be a measure of sun activity, but I don’t know how.
Thank you all for your smarts here!
Pity the poor folk at NOAA/SWPC.
They make changes without an announcement and they’re figuratively tarred and feathered.
They announce something in advance and it’s looked at as a lot about nothing.
They’re damned if they do and damned if they don’t.
Let’s see what they say; we might actually be surprised…maybe.
I may have been asleep if this has been mentioned before but since everyone keeps speaking of ads, how about an ad for a little book from Heartland:
http://www.heartland.org/books/PDFs/SurfaceStations.pdf
It appears to be written by an Anthony Watts. Wonder if anyone’s ever heard of this guy.
WUWT would not need advertisements if more people donated a few dollars. I do not mind the advertisements, I love free markets. This is a wonderful web site, I just wish more politicians would read it before they vote to pass a carbon tax that will have zero affect on the climate.
Dr. Svalgaard’s own research ( http://www.leif.org/research/ ) still appears to remain consistent, as can be seen in this graph, in particular: ( http://www.leif.org/research/TSI-SORCE-2008-now.png ), e.g., the cycle appeared to have bottomed out late 2008, and he tracks data, when normed, showing an equally low increase in activity in said graph.
One thing I’ve always appreciated about Dr. Svalgaard’s work, which I encountered doing research on Cosmic Rays, is his apparent integrity, refusing to draw conclusions beyond where the data takes us.