Part I: Ranking global warming among present-day risks to public health.
Guest essay by Indur M. Goklany
There seems to be no limit to the hyperbole surrounding climate change – and that’s no hyperbole. Numerous politicians have informed us over the years that climate change is one of the most important problems facing mankind. In fact, U.N. Secretary General Ban Ki-moon has called it the defining challenge of our age.”
But is it?
I answer this question in a paper just published in the refereed section of Energy & Environment.
A 2005 review article in Nature on the health impacts of climate change estimated that 166,000 deaths were “attributable” to climate change in 2000. This estimate was derived from a World Health Organization (WHO) sponsored study that even the study’s authors acknowledge may not “accord with the canons of empirical science” (see here). But I will accept this flawed estimate as gospel for the sake of argument.
In the year 2000, however, there were a total of 56 million deaths worldwide. Thus, climate change may be responsible for less than 0.3% of all deaths globally (based on data for the year 2000). This places climate change no higher than 13th among mortality risk factors related to food, nutrition and environment, as shown in the following table.
Specifically, climate change is easily outranked by threats such as hunger, malnutrition and other nutrition-related problems, lack of access to safe water and sanitation, indoor air pollution, malaria, urban air pollution. And had I included other risks to public health beyond environmental, food and nutritional factors (e.g., HIV/AIDS, TB, various cancers, etc.) then climate change would have ranked even lower than 13th.
With respect to biodiversity and ecosystems, today the greatest threat is what it always has been – the conversion of land and water habitat to human uses, i.e., agriculture, forestry, and human habitation and infrastructure. See, e.g., here.
Climate change, contrary to claims, is clearly not the most important environmental, let alone public health, problem facing the world today.
But is it possible that in the foreseeable future, the impact of climate change on public health could outweigh that of other factors?
I will address this question in subsequent blogs.
| Risk factor |
Ranking |
Mortality (millions) |
Mortality (%) |
| Blood pressure | 1 | 7.1 | 12.8 |
| Cholesterol | 2 | 4.4 | 7.9 |
| Underweight (hunger) | 3 | 3.7 | 6.7 |
| Low fruit & vegetables | 4 | 2.7 | 4.9 |
| Overweight | 5 | 2.6 | 4.6 |
| Unsafe water, poor sanitation | 6 | 1.7 | 3.1 |
| Indoor smoke | 7 | 1.6 | 2.9 |
| Malaria | 1.1 | 2.0 | |
| Iron deficiency | 8 | 0.8 | 1.5 |
| Urban air pollution | 9 | 0.8 | 1.4 |
| Zinc deficiency | 10 | 0.8 | 1.4 |
| Vitamin A deficiency | 11 | 0.8 | 1.4 |
| Lead exposure | 12 | 0.2 | 0.4 |
| Climate change | 13 | 0.2 | 0.3 |
| Subtotal | 27.6 | 49.4 | |
| TOTAL from all causes | 55.8 | 100.0 | |
Priority ranking of food, nutritional and environmental problems, based on global mortality for 2000. Source: I.M. Goklany, Is Climate Change the “Defining Challenge of Our Age”? Energy & Environment 20(3): 279-302 (2009), based on data from the World Health Organization. Note that malaria isn’t ranked in this table because deaths due to malaria were attributed by WHO to climate change, underweight, and zinc and vitamin A deficiencies.
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There are close to 1 billion people in this world who are, literally, starving. This has nothing to do with AGW/ACC/Climate Pollution and everything to do with money, politics and power.
How can local (African for example) farmers compete with EU subsidies where imported food is cheaper than locally grown food?
Keep people hungry and in fear and you have total power.
“…lack of access to safe water…”
This will be problematic. I imagine this will be the “limiting reagent” on population growth.
Without cheap energy, you cannot produce cheap and plentiful water and food or build effective industry.
Low fruit and vegetables can kill you ! OMG!
Ok fine but what about the aminals?
Ever heard of Polar Bears?
Sorry, I couldn’t help myself.
Every generation needs a new ‘idea’ to ‘campaign for’.
When I was growing up in the 1970s I was bombarded with messages about ‘wimmin’s rights’, ‘gay rights’ and ‘black rights’. Whilst the principle was fine, the messages’ total effect on a white straight boy growing up were to place his grouping as the blame for all the world’s ills. With all the attendant emotional issues which will arise as a result……….
It’s the same with climate change. There are relevant issues there, but the fight and the message has distorted the picture beyond repair. There is no longer a worthy cause to fight in my opinion.
But it will still be fought, because the religion has taken hold.
It’s like all religions: slip out the mantras up front, make sure you stack the evidential deck for inexperienced recruits to stop them asking awkward questions and get them on the streets unquestioningly.
There is no conceivable question that there is NOT dangerous climate change currently.
But there is also no doubt that the words ‘dangerous climate change’ now have code status in politics.
So I say: forget all the words and focus on what change is necessary.
Considering that it is estimated that about 2 million children under 5 die from diarrhea every year, I think that “unsafe water” number might be low. Measles kills about 500,000. About the same number die from flu every year.
If we are worried about “climate change” then it means times much really be so good we have no real pressing concerns to occupy ourselves with.
s/means times much really be so good/means time must really be so good/
Dr. Goklany — perceptive and big-picture oriented as usual. To be commended.
But you did leave out one thing I might have included: Namely how many die from cold.
In the mail today I received a packet (6 pages of inserts plus the large envelop) from Robt. Kennedy and the Natural Resources Defense Council. They also provide a petition for me to sign. Which of the 13 risk factors in the table above do you think they wanted my money to help alleviate?
Ah! Trick question. The answer is “none of the above.” Sarah Palin is the scary witch of the North. OK, so global warming is mentioned.
One of the pages starts with “Polar Bear SOS!” (in large red letters) and continues:
“Dear Friend, The distress signals coming from the Arctic are now loud and clear as polar bears suffer the terrible effects of global warming and melting ice.”
It gets worse. Anyway, the world’s rich & famous have gone crazy. The money spent to prepare, print, and send this packet (if one sends $20 they will send you a tote bag with a print of mama bear and two cubs) — the money spent could probably fix Risk factor #8 world wide.
Knowing that the bears are doing well and the Arctic ice even more so I don’t plan on sending them anything. Over the past few years I have gotten fed-up with these stupendously stupid scams. I now give directly to people I know are in need.
I hope Dr. Goklany’s “challenges of our times” report will cause some of those pushing these false issues to reconsider and take on one of the real problems they can have some success with. Rant over, John
“Ok fine but what about the aminals?”
You are a human animal,
You are a very special breed.
For you are the only animal
Who can think, who can reason, who can read!
Low fruit and vegetables can kill you ! OMG!
So can staying up late nights gridding weather stations . . .
Such arguments might work on rational people who actually hold general human welfare as a priority value.
However you assume that “Human Welfare” as measured by mortality rates matters to,
[1] The Hard Core Greens,
[2] Committed Malthusians.
[3] People who participated in banning DDT.
[4] Distant corporate shareholders looking for an increased return on invested $$$.
[5] Charlatans and Conmen out to make an easy $$$.
[6] Psychopaths that have charmed their way into positions of power, influence and non-accountability.
However – don’t be discouraged, I’m looking forward to the next installments.
The defining challenge of our age is tackling political stupidity and venality. Watts Up With That stands as a shining beacon to reason and common sense. Keep up the good work, guys.
evanmjones (23:01:04) :
“Ok fine but what about the aminals?”
You are a human animal,
You are a very special breed.
For you are the only animal
Who can think, who can reason, who can read!
evanmjones – A friend of mine had two German Shephard dogs. An older female and a younger male.
We were sitting in his loungeroom with the young male dog lying on a couch. The female walked into the room, and did the following,
[1] Stopped, looked around, and assessed the situation.
[2] Went over to a corner of the room and picked up a tennis ball with her mouth.
[3] Went with the ball and waved it in front of the young male, who sat up with interest.
[4] Spat the ball back into the corner.
[5] The young male then promptly jumped off the couch to fetch the ball.
[6] She jumped onto the couch and lay down.
[7] The young male returned with the ball looking to play – she ignored him.
[8] The young male lay down on the floor.
Ahhh… wrt “Who can think, who can reason, who can read” she never showed evidence of being able to read – but since that day I have never doubted that a smart dog can both think, and reason.
I wonder how these risk factor tables are made.
There is no doubt that if we make a table for the year 1900, 100% of people will be dead and the table of cause will not be saying ” his/her oil was finished” as we say in greek. It will be a list of diseases that the doctor signed and then we take that as risk factor.
I would be more interested in deaths below the average expectation. If the average is 75 years, what is the difference in the cause of death between the people dying below 75 and above 75, or between the lowest 20 percentile and the highest 20 percentile. That has a practical meaning. That we will all die of something is inevitable. It is premature deaths that one should compare with, in my opinion.
In this case I believe starvation and malnutrition would be leading.
RE evanmjones (22:56:37) :
This study http://www.rotherham.gov.uk/nr/moderngov/mgConvert2PDF.asp?ID=22183
Notes the following for the UK.
“There are around 40,000 more deaths during winter months December toMarch than expected from death rates in other months of the year”
“Around two thirds of excess winter deaths can be attributed to the effects of cold”
Our housing stock is pretty bad for insulating against cold weather, but “Fuel Poverty” is becoming more of an issue, especially since solid fuel fires in new-build homes are about as common as rocking horse faeces!
And intentional deficiency of DDT.
Well Six Meter Peter, Peter Garret Australia’s environment minister has an affect on my blood pressure. His ridiculous alarmism never fails to aggravate me therefore global warming is the number one killer. The term climate change also affects my BP as it reminds me that we might in fact be living Orwell’s nightmare when Newspeak terms are slipped in so easily.
http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,25368232-30417,00.html
Maybe it’s just me but from eyeballing the this graph since 2005 it looks like, if I squint really hard, that the average ice area since January 2008 should be much higher than the average from Jan 2005 to December 2007.
We’ve clearly got more space for another few billion yet, so population is a problem – but not yet (that’s not to trivialise it). We all know climate change isn’t a problem at all. Cancer and heart disease are top of my list.
By the way, everyone here in the UK has gone Swine Flu crazy – or rather the media has, and that has in turn made people worry. The UK government is to issue a leaflet to every home in the country outlining what to do! Seems everyone has stopped worrying about Bird Flu to concentrate on this instead. Climate Change? Oh that’s so last year! But when we get four hot days in a row in the summer (if we do) the BBC will run a piece on it again, and everyone will forget about Swine Flu.
Funny old world, isn’t it?
Low fruit and vegetables will kill you if they’re flying fast enough.
With Blood Pressure,Cholesterol and being Overweight contributing 25% of the total mortality factors, CC seems a very minor concern for first world countries.
Seems a problem of sloth and excess,shameful really.
Thanks, Indur, for the reality check.
The thing that puzzles me is that if I avoid all the risk factors given in the list am I going to live forever? I mean where does death from old age creep in?
“Defining Challenge of Our Age?”
Climate change can be worked into the factors of other changes, at will – changes like drought, disease, flood – without any kind of real proof.
A few really nasty, world wide natural disasters would wipe out “climate change” effects in a heartbeat.