This is a news story from Germany outlining another Arctic ice measurement expedition. This one was conducted by flying the scientists across the north polar ice cap using the WWII era workhorse Douglas DC-3 airplane equipped with skis, and towing an airborne sounder twenty meters above the ice surface. It makes the Catlin Arctic Ice Survey look rather pointless, but then we knew that. BTW “Eisdicken” translates to “ice thickness”. – Anthony
From Radio Bremen. Translated from German by Google web page translator: Original | Translated
Surprising Results
At the North Pole ice sheet is thicker than expected
![Das Forschungsflugzeug "Polar 5" in Bremerhaven [Quelle: AWI]](https://i0.wp.com/www.radiobremen.de/wissen/nachrichten/polarfuenf100_v-slideshow.jpg?quality=83 "The research aircraft Polar 5 \"in Bremerhaven [Source: AWI]")
The “Polar 5” in Bremerhaven
The research aircraft Polar 5 “ended today in Canada’s recent Arctic expedition. During the flight, researchers have measured the current Eisstärke measured at the North Pole, and in areas that have never before been overflown. Result: The sea-ice in the surveyed areas is apparently thicker than the researchers had suspected.
Normally, ice is newly formed after two years, over two meters thick. “Here were Eisdicken up to four meters,” said a spokesman of Bremerhaven’s Alfred Wegener Institute for Polar and Marine Research. For scientists, this result is still in contradiction to the warming of the seawater.
Besides the Eisdicken was also the composition of the air are investigated. With the help of a laser, the researchers reviewed how polluted the atmosphere by emissions from industrialized countries. On the expedition, some 20 scientists from the U.S., Canada, Italy and Germany.
Here is the route map:
See the press release announcing the expedition from Alfred Wegener Institute for Polar and Marine Research here. Note the lack of “live” biometrics.
But they do have a nifty aerial ice thickness probe, shown above.
An ice thickness probe, the so-called EM-Bird, which is usually dragged below a helicopter, is now operated for the first time by a fixed-wing aircraft. The EM-Bird is towed under the hull of the aircraft by means of a winch for take-off and landing. For the surveys, the probe is towed on an 80 m long rope twenty metres above the ice surface. More extensive areas can now be investigated due to the longer range of the aircraft in comparison to a helicopter.
UPDATE: more on the EM-Bird probe (h/t to Ron de Haan)
EM-Bird
Electromagnetic (EM) induction sounding for ice thickness measurements is a technique that can achieve long profiles of some kilometer length. The accuracy and robustness of the EM method has been evaluated by comparing coincident drill-hole and EM measurements. Read more (Poster, pdf, size: 156 kB)
Sure beats hauling a sledge and a broken home-built ice radar around doesn’t it?
h/t to “yddar” and Lubos Motl
Well, that shows what the Catlin Expedition really is. An ill-founded, amateurish adventure for propaganda reasons providing useless random data on a short track. It’s a pity that the plane did’nt pick a route going over the Catlin team to show them how it’s done professionally/scientifically.
“If “Eisdicken” translates to “ice thickness”, what does Catlin translate to? Disaster? Catastrophe? Misery?”
“Cat litter in der brain”.
There is a claim in today’s printed London Times (the weather section) that ‘ice in the arctic melts much faster than normal and many places are open far earlier’.
It is unclear from the quotation whether the person interviewed was there right now or whether this is alluding to two years ago.
Is there a network of webcams at various places near arctic ice (Baffin Island and all the other land masses around the NW passage; Svalbard; North Coast of Russia etc) where one can monitor this?
Since according to http://www.nsidc.org, the ice this year is most certainly NOT melting faster than average…………
Maybe its time we skeptics started supporting nsidc and even CT as they are obliged to report data “as is”. On another note you may notice how some ice sites like to use “thick” lines to maybe “cover up” trends (ie AMSR) so therefore I recommend this site:
http://ocean.dmi.dk/arctic/icecover.uk.php
where you can really see the difference. Another is AMSU global temp data:
http://discover.itsc.uah.edu/amsutemps/
Also we should perhaps be not so nasty with all these sites even the AGW ones because they are doing everybody a service by providing data, graphs etc…
Phil. (20:05:36) :
Your snarkiness about Amundsen is up to your usual poor taste.
Amundsen disappeared on June 18, 1928 while flying on a rescue mission in a Latham 47 with Norwegian pilot Leif Dietrichson, French pilot Rene Guilbaud, and three more Frenchmen, looking for missing members of Nobile’s crew, whose new airship Italia had crashed while returning from the North Pole. They were very brave men!
Aircraft have improved since then, but you obviously wouldn’t want to let facts like that get in the way of a good story.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Latham_47
As to your other point, naturally, the airborne device was calibrated by drilling holes in ice, but such a procedure would be performed sensibly, quickly and efficiently, close to base. Then the equipment was deployed to measure the Arctic ice, thus rendering the efforts of the Catlin crew, a waste of time and effort, except as an amusing “divertissement”.
Unfortunately, it could still be a tragedy. Pen, Ann and Martin have now been patiently waiting at their runway strip for 5 days. This is a frustrating for the team. The bad weather must pass before the resupply plane can come in with the food and fuel the team need to progress north.
On a normal sledging day the team would consume up to 6000 calories. However, after studying the weather charts, a long delay for this resupply was anticipated and the team have now slashed their ration intake to 1000 calories per day, enabling them to last for a further 7 days.
http://www.catlinarcticsurvey.com/latestfromtheice
Great information but it reads a bit like Yoda on a bad day.
Looking at your reference:
http://www.awi.de/fileadmin/user_upload/Research/Research_Divisions/Climate_Sciences/Sea_Ice_Physics/pdf_poster/EM-Bird.pdf
Shows groundbased – air measurements differ by up to 1 metre and frequently out by .25metres in an ice thickness of 2 to 3 metres
Presumably the ground measurements were taken with a similar intrument?
Interesting that bbc.com has nothing about the results of this expedition. And continually touts the Catlin Expedition.
http://search.bbc.co.uk/search?go=homepage&scope=all&q=Eisdicken&Search=Search
Here is a first interview with one of the scientists from the Polar 5 mission, called PAM-ARCMIP (Pan-Arctic Measurements and Arctic Climate Model Inter comparison Project). It’s in German therefore a brief summary:
Professor Klaus Dethloff, physicist at the Alfred-Wegener-Institute Potsdam (polar and maritime research), explains that the express purpose of this mission was to collect data in order to improve the models used to describe/predict climate change. He calls the models weakest in regards to the polar regions, stressing that this also applies to the 2007 IPCC report and the models used there.
He subtly deflects the reporter’s question as to the actual results achieved (This suggests to me she has already heard of the ice thickness being double what was expected). He does so twice, even when she asks about spectacular results. His answer: yes, it is spectacular that we now have actual measurements for ice thickness. No data is mentioned.
http://www.inforadio.de/static/dyn2sta_article/212/626212_article.shtml
(Click on the loudspeaker symbol next to the inevitable polar bear jumping about for the audio file)
http://www.awi.de/en/news/press_releases/detail/item/ende_ark_xxiii3/?cHash=27cb41926f
17. October 2008: Research around the North Pole – RV Polarstern returns home after its expedition through the Northeast and Northwest Passages
The German research vessel Polarstern has returned today to Bremerhaven from the Arctic Sea. It has cruised as the first research vessel ever both the Northeast and the Northwest Passages and thereby circled the North Pole. The third part of the research vessel’s 23rd Arctic expedition, operated by the Alfred Wegener Institute in the Helmholtz Association, started its journey on August 12th in Reykjavik and ended it on October 17th in Bremerhaven. The ship travelled a distance of 10.800 nautical miles, equivalent to 20.000 kilometres. On board were 47 researchers from 12 nations, for example from Belgium, Germany, France, Japan, Canada, Korea, the Netherlands, Russia and the USA. Because of the small ice cover, the expedition members were able to research hitherto uncharted waters. The small sea ice cover presents a cause for concern regarding climate change in the Arctic Ocean. The aim of this expedition was to gather data on the development of the geology of the Arctic area.
“David Ball (15:44:08) :
Reminds me of a discussion on here regarding the Lord of the Rings plot hole. The question as to why they just didn’t take the golden eagles to the volcano and drop the ring in.”
=============================
I wish that the Elrond character had seen that the king had failed to throw the ring into the fires of Mount Doom and that he could have decided to kill the king and take the ring and throw it into mount doom himself when he had the chance, instead of spending the next 400 years moaning about how men failed. Hey pointy eared elf dude, YOU WERE THERE AND DID NOTHING! YOU FAILED TOO!!! I mean I did not see an elf cutting Sauron’s hand off, did you?
Sorry for the minor rant, but I will never get the nine+ hours back from watching the trilogy.
As for this German mission, I really do not expect to see any reference to it in the mainstream media. We will be saturated with stories about the Brave Brits who risked their lives to prove that the ice was shrinking and we nasty humans are a threat to those nice cuddly cute polar bears and despite their increasing numbers, we are causing their extinction.
An interesting Catlin video of a lead closing as it is crossed
http://www.catlinarcticsurvey.com/gallery_video.aspx?id=79
Just thinking of the carefully written postings coming from the Catlin crew. As we discuss something here, it is very soon mentioned on their postings. When I first started following the AGW debate many were talking about the influence of the sun, within weeks several studies came out saying that the sun had no influence on climate. When the bouy data showed that the oceans were warming, it wasn’t too long before that was spun… when the tropospheric hot spot couldn’t be found, the data is suspect too… when the medieval warm period seemed inconvenient, we get the hockey stick… Now our public officials either are already using teleprompters for every utterence, or they should be. Everything is a show, and even the most august institutions are in on it… If you didn’t see the president’s speech to the NAS, you definitely should.
Everything is adjusted for our viewing pleasure. Catlin already had the results of the study BEFORE they had the funding.
We live in interesting times, I think. Of course as always I could be wrong.
Ken Hall (04:55:27)
“I wish that the Elrond character… could have decided to kill the king and take the ring and throw it into mount doom..”
But surely Isildur would have just put on the ring and escaped. Anyway, elves are just glorified fairies, so I reckon he could take Elrond no problem, visible or not. You have to think these things through scientifically.
What were we talking about? Ice or something.
Cassanders (01:02:39) :
“Anyway, allthough I will not glout, I am open for a bet: I am reasonably certain that the summer ice area in 2009 will be close to 6 mill km2, i.e. within the 1979-2007 mean.”
Cassanders
In Cod we trust
I’ll take you up on that! My guess is for 5.5 million km^2, greater that 2005 but not fully recovered from 2007 yet. Maybe next year. The winner is the one closest to the actual number.
Are you on? Loser donates $20 to Anthony.
ak (15:02:13) It seems if there were contradictory evidence they would march it out for the world to see, no?
No, they wouldn’t. Are you beginning to see the problem?
Thankfully there are people out there actually looking for what the facts are regardless of their preconceived expectations. It’s a great contrast to the Catlin PR mission.
Somewhat odd that NSIDC has three lines on Antarctic sea ice extent graph:
1) 1979-2000 Average
2) 2008
3) 2009
However the three lines on the Arctic sea ice extent graph are:
1) 1979-2000 Average
2) 2007… yup 2007
3) 2009
This really accentuates the difference between 2007 and 2009…
I bet they wish that they had used the 2008…
Maybe they will change it.
“Is there a network of webcams at various places near arctic ice (Baffin Island and all the other land masses around the NW passage; Svalbard; North Coast of Russia etc) where one can monitor this?”
Svalbard webcams at:
http://www.svalbard.com/webcam/
Definitely more ice than normal there this late in the spring. Almost no open water in Isfjorden.
Rhys Jaggar (03:25:46) :
Svalbard webcams at:
http://www.svalbard.com/webcam/
Definitely more ice than normal there.
Perry Debell (04:05:27) :
Phil. (20:05:36) :
Your snarkiness about Amundsen is up to your usual poor taste.
There was no snarkiness about Amundsen, I was just noting the irony of the poster comparing the safety of planes flying at low altitude over Arctic ice in winter with footslogging over the same ice when the greatest polar explorer of all time died flying over the ice.
Aircraft have improved since then, but you obviously wouldn’t want to let facts like that get in the way of a good story.
Indeed they have as have communications, as a pilot I’m well aware of that, however flying at low level over Arctic ice in the changeable winter weather conditions is a dangerous occupation. Note the difficulties that the resupply group has with the Catlin expedition and they’re arguably the most experienced pilots in the world under those conditions.
As to your other point, naturally, the airborne device was calibrated by drilling holes in ice, but such a procedure would be performed sensibly, quickly and efficiently, close to base.
Really, 3-4m sea ice complete with leads and pressure ridges for calibration can be found where? The previous results with that apparatus indicate a measurement uncertainty of ~ ±0.25m. Their results based on the press release would seem to show thinner ice than expected for the areas that they surveyed. I’d expect to see some ice up to ~6m near Eureka rather than the 4m referred to. I guess the ice is thinning faster than I thought?
The whole point of the mission was to measure in regions of thick MY ice where the Polarstern is unable to go so the results seem reasonable except for the lack of thicker ice. Hopefully when the results are published we’ll get a better picture.
http://nsidc.org/images/arcticseaicenews/20080717_Figure5.png
http://www.awi.de/fileadmin/user_upload/News/Press_Releases/2009/1._Quartal/PAM_ARCMIP_route_w.jpg
Then the equipment was deployed to measure the Arctic ice, thus rendering the efforts of the Catlin crew, a waste of time and effort, except as an amusing “divertissement”.
And subject to many of the same criticisms that have been levelled here about the value of the results regarding their reproducibility etc.
Falling temperatures, thick ice…
Darn, its hard to be global warming believer.
Mike Bryant:
Your listing of fact followed by “new findings” that saves the global warming theory reminds me so much of the creationists.
I have been lecturing evolution and followed the evolutionist/creationist sad debate for many years. It is so similar:
Every single time evolutionists presents new solid evidence like skeletons ets, then the creationsists comes out with some sick sad explanation.
Creationists and Alarmists seems to share this anti-evidence-routine.
And then its funny, that the alarmists has exactly blamed sceptics for behaving like creationists. But as an evolutionist, I certainly dont see that parallel in the real world.
NASA … so sad.
How many decades will it take to restore your credability??
Why have you made your unique good name a JOKE like this??
I will never understand.
If NASA should preserve just a tiny tiny rest of dignity, NASA should RIGHT AWAY come up with the true story. The more they wait, the worse for their reputation.
vg (03:33:37) :
Maybe its time we skeptics started supporting nsidc and even CT as they are obliged to report data “as is”. On another note you may notice how some ice sites like to use “thick” lines to maybe “cover up” trends (ie AMSR) so therefore I recommend this site:
http://ocean.dmi.dk/arctic/icecover.uk.php
where you can really see the difference.
Depending on the screen the thin lines aren’t as clear and aren’t as good when used with projectors so I prefer the thicker lines. The DMI site is interesting but one thing I haven’t seen explained is why their data is low by about 4Mm^2 in the winter and by 1Mm^2 in the summer compared with AMSR-E, it can’t just be the 30%/15% threshold.
Just to clear the air for LOTR fans, I truly enjoyed the books as a youth and the movies when they came out . I re-read the books after seeing the movie, and found them to be even better than my initial reading. The plot hole thing is only a little humor that I found to be quite funny and thought it a great analogy to the Caitlin survey (read fiasco) being made to look so foolish by a real scientific endeavor with very little risk, comparatively. No disrespect intended for Tolken or his fans. You have to admit, it certainly highlights the glaring deception of the Caitlin expedition. You cannot tell me that Hadow did not know this could be accomplished in a much more efficient , less hazardous, scientific manner. I can imagine the plane passing over them and Ann saying “you mean we could have done it that way”?
I certainly do NOT wish this to come to pass, but what kind of (snip) storm will there be if the recovery plane crashes and somebody dies trying to pick these people (want to say idiots) up? Will it be covered up? Or will they downplay it in the media the way the New York photo op fiasco is being downplayed? Is this an indication of how this administration thinks? Or doesn’t think, as this indicates. Sorry to highjack this thread, but since it is no longer leading post, I thought I might throw it out there.