Shooting At a Rapidly Moving Target
Guest post by Steven Goddard
Arctic ice area has recovered to normal (one standard deviation) levels, so ice area no longer matters. The issue is now thickness, which is measured by a team of explorers (Catlin) with a tape measure, who intentionally seek out flat (first year) ice for their route.
The team systematically seeks out flatter ice because it is easier to travel over and camp on. Typically, the surface of first‐year ice floes is flatter than that of multi‐year ice floes.
Arctic ice area back in the normal range
Antarctic ice extent has been setting record highs, so the AGW team now claims that Antarctica doesn’t matter.
the scientific community has known for some time that that on a warming planet, sea ice in the global North (Arctic) is expected to melt while sea ice in the global South is expected to remain constant or even sightly grow.
Buoy data which shows thickening doesn’t count, because buoys don’t cover a wide enough region. Even though their region is much larger than the Catlin coverage.
Thus, while the buoys provide an excellent measurement of thickness at a point through the seasons, they do not provide good information on the large-scale spatial distribution of ice thickness.
Two year old multi-year ice no longer counts, the ice now has to be three years old to matter.
The Arctic is treading on thinner ice than ever before. Researchers say that as spring begins, more than 90 percent of the sea ice in the Arctic is only 1 or 2 years old. That makes it thinner and more vulnerable than at anytime in the past three decades, according to researchers with NASA and the National Snow and Ice Data Center in Colorado.
Dr. Hansen’s original prediction that Antarctic ice would diminish symmetrically with Arctic ice no longer matters, because the models have improved since he made that prediction.
A new NASA-funded study finds that predicted increases in precipitation due to warmer air temperatures from greenhouse gas emissions may actually increase sea ice volume in the Antarctic’s Southern Ocean. This adds new evidence of potential asymmetry between the two poles, and may be an indication that climate change processes may have different impact on different areas of the globe. … numerical models have improved considerably over the last two decades”
Apparently the only valid target are the latest computer models, which are constantly backfitted to mask their failures to date. Is this how science is supposed to be done?
There is a predictable silence coming from the AGW true believer sites concerning this: click
OK my last comment was pessimistic. Now I’m optimistically saying that it seems that more more websites like this and celebrities and commentaters are seeing the light of truth. We might pull out of this yet. We have to stop carbon taxes and cap and trade. We must summon the will to make a regime change. and I mean throw them ALL out and start over. Take the keys away and send them all home. Then stop all the retirement benefits and let them go to the county health department and the state funded agencies. Stop all the money from going out of your state and accept no funny money from the feds… It is valueless now. We need a new union based on the Constitution not world law.
See how easy it’s gonna be? 🙂
OT: Speaking about shooting at a rapidly moving target, this little ditty just popped up on Drudge:
“Air pollution helps plants blunt climate change: study:
Cleaning up skies choked with smog and soot would sharply curtail the capacity of plants to absorb carbon dioxide and blunt global warming, according to a study released on Wednesday.
Plant life — especially tropical forests — soak up a quarter of all the CO2 humans spew into the atmosphere, and thus plays a critical role in keeping climate change in check.
Through photosynthesis, vegetation transforms sunlight, CO2 and water into sugar nutrients.
Common sense would suggest that air pollution in the form of microscopic particles that obstruct the Sun’s rays — a phenomenon called “global dimming” — would hamper this process, but the new study shows the opposite is true.
“Surprisingly, the effects of atmospheric pollution seem to have enhanced global plant productivity by as much as a quarter from 1960 to 1999,” said Linda Mercado, a researcher at the Met Office Hadley Centre in Britain, and the study’s lead author. ……..”
The gist of the story is that if we clean up the air we are going to have to cut CO2 levels even more !!!!! Wow, will this make Al Gore one very happy [and CO2-challenging fat] puppy. It will make Obama happy too as the number of carbon credits the government will get to sell to support his slush fund will increase well beyond what had been predicted to amount to about $800 Billion.
http://www.breitbart.com/article.php?id=CNG.3bb1cb136038ab4034b51162ec256bcc.281&show_article=1
Will “multi-year ice” become the new ‘old growth forest’?
How long will it be until the some unique and critical to the ecosystem aspect of multi-year ice is claimed? Maybe polar bears need it to breed, or seals need it to bear young. Some important aspect wil be discovered to help perpetuate the crisis.
Personally, I very much look forward to the day –perhaps not too distant– when AGWers are arguing that the current extent is within one standard deviation ABOVE the long-term trend, so it doesn’t really make a difference.
The Antarctic sea ice paper about the Ozone Hole causing the increase in sea ice in Antarctica is faulty on its face since the timelines do not match up.
The Ozone Hole forms from September to December (the end of the winter season in the southern hemisphere) and the increase in the Antarctic sea ice extent has exclusively ocurred in the February to May period.
There has been no real increase in the Ozone Hole period – it is flat.
The authors say that the Ozone Hole creates increased polar vortex winds which creates increased freezing potential of the ocean (six months later apparently).
The study ends with “or it could be a natural increase in the sea ice extent”, which is a consistent practise I am starting to see.
The researchers themselves want to present their data and start to get things turned around but they still need to attach a “global warming” “human-influence” spin to their study to get it published and stay on the good side of the enviro-nazis. They can always go back later and say “hey we said the ice extent was increasing and we noted it could be a natural increase so we were being objective enough.”
Btw, on a warming planet, *of course* northern ice will be lower than southern ice. Heat rises!
And if someone takes that seriously I may cry. 😉
The video is interesting, but at the risk of quibbling I would point out that you can take a supersaturated (but still clear) solution of something, whack it, and initiate massive precipitation. If I had to swear to it in court, I could not say that this is freezing and not precipitation.
About the rest of the comments (sea ice), I’m in agreement that this is causing problems for the Gorenites.
Pamela: Excellent logical presumption.
If Global Warming causes 7 days of snow in the Wallowa Mts, then more Global Warming will regenerate the glaciers & polar caps. It will also lower the oceans, as where else will that ice come from but ocean water?
AGW seeks to fall on it’s Sword of Stupid.
So funny that CT doesn’t support the Comparison Product any longer. Also so very far behind on the seasonal graphs that are fatally flawed. Their website is so shabby and falling apart like the AGW hypothesis itself…
(I accidentally made this same comment on the Solar Minimum post, Sorry)
“A new NASA-funded study finds that predicted increases in precipitation due to warmer air temperatures from greenhouse gas emissions may actually increase sea ice volume in the Antarctic’s Southern Ocean.”
OK, this is feasible, but it does nothing to explain why Antarctic ice extent has increased. I love how they purposely mix up volume with extent to try to explain away the increased extent of ice — which can only be caused by colder temperatures.
Go Baby Ice, Go!
==========
Love those short term trends.
OT, but not so much. It involves the Arctic ice. I sent a note to ABC World News Tonight protesting their BIG Earth Day story with not less than 3 prime reporters showing a sad “stranded” polar bear, the clouds of gas from factories, the coral reefs bleaching, the frogs disappearing and the sad and starving people of Earth with no water (drinking dirt). I was disappointed Charles Gibson didn’t limit the topic or show anything about the opposing view with doubt of AGW/HGW. The NOAA lady really tweaked me. She got her 30 seconds of fame to tell me the human race will perish.
So, on this Earthday…with Arctic Ice is nearly hitting the 1979-2000 “holy gail” mean…and with global ice above that same average. I hope Charles Osgood, the Catlin grandstanders, Hansen, Gore and the IPCC go out with the tar and feathers they deserve. ABC News: Bad reporting.
“Heat rises!”
Warm things rise! 😛
I meant “holy Grail” Please correct my comment typo
Mike Bryant (19:35:22) :
OK my last comment was pessimistic. Now I’m optimistically saying that it seems that more more websites like this and celebrities and commentaters are seeing the light of truth. We might pull out of this yet. We have to stop carbon taxes and cap and trade. We must summon the will to make a regime change. and I mean throw them ALL out and start over. Take the keys away and send them all home. Then stop all the retirement benefits and let them go to the county health department and the state funded agencies. Stop all the money from going out of your state and accept no funny money from the feds… It is valueless now. We need a new union based on the Constitution not world law.
See how easy it’s gonna be? 🙂
Mike,
It will be like fighting the Mafia on steroids.
The mortality rates are high for those who did.
Only this time the Mafia controls Law Enforcement Agencies, the Military, Home Land Security and the Secret Services.
If you take too much time you also have to deal with the promised Civil Army, EPA and all the dope dealers in the USA.
Ans this is only the first half of the story because the the representative power you want to send out covers for the real power. These are the guys who are working to create a Global Empire.
Many of their big corporates have their own security staff and their numbers and fire power exceeds that of the US Army.
If you read USA, read Corporatism!
Read John Perkins book “Economic Hit Man on Democracy” to know what you are up against and know that this book is written five years ago.
http://www.globalpublicmedia.com/john_perkins_former_economic_hit_man
Also know there is No refuge outside the USA
They are everywhere!
So, start organizing the “good people” who cherish freedom and truth.
The mutable object of AGW will be deconstructed by the irresistible force of truth.
Well, we do have to see whether all the cold being swept further south is reducing the amount of Arctic cold, or if there’s still plenty of cold to go around.
“A new NASA-funded study finds that predicted increases in precipitation due to warmer air temperatures from greenhouse gas emissions may actually increase sea ice volume in the Antarctic’s Southern Ocean.”
What the heck has this purported increase in precipitation have to do with sea ice? I can see how an increase in precipitation would add to glacial ice, but sea ice? If this is true then the same should happen in the arctic with the increase in open water, resulting in more snow which should then result in more and thicker sea ice.
Interesting methodology in play here.
Public figures engage in spin; accountants cook the books. What are scientists doing who try to make the data fit the fantasy?
Re previous warning about changing goalposts
see DMI here current
http://ocean.dmi.dk/arctic/icecover.uk.php
see AMSR here current
http://www.ijis.iarc.uaf.edu/seaice/extent/AMSRE_Sea_Ice_Extent.png
notice anything?
I note that last year the ice extent went from just within the normal range down to below the 2007 line within the space of about 2 weeks.
That stuff aT Drudge sound like a recycled version of that dumb-ass terraforming idea from a few weeks back–yeah lets fire some high albedo crap into the upper atmosphere. Zinc Oxide!!! Damn those Aussie surfers knew it all along.
Another nice piece, Steven. Love the video. If I recollect correctly, Jules Verne used that effect in a story where a party had to cross a body of water which one of their members realised it was below freezing and disturbed the surface, causing it to freeze immediately, allowing for passage.
I can’t put my finger on the actual report, but I remember that GWing was supposed to turn the world into a desert, not increase precipitation.
Regarding ozone I do have this archived, and unless it has been disproven, the ‘hole’ isn’t largely anthropogenic. Also, isn’t the creation of ozone due to the sun, I know old sol doesn’t effect climate (sarc), but its lack of energy must not be contributing to ‘normal’ ozone creation.
“Journal of Physical Chemistry, 2007, DOI: 10.1021/jp067660w
Ozone chemistry confounds everyone By Chris Lee | Published: October 01, 2007 – 08:59AM CT
In fact, a team of scientists from the Jet Propulsion Laboratory have put together a rather complicated experiment, one that allowed them to isolate the Cl2O2 molecule in a form that was much more pure than what had been previously obtained. They did this through a combination of laser induced reactions, cooling, and trapping. Having obtained a much more pure form, the researchers were able to use UV lasers to cleave the chlorine molecule and measure the rate of the subsequent reactions. To their shock, they found that the reaction rate was not just at the lower end of the published results, but about an order of magnitude slower than the average of previously reported values. Firstly, using the new reaction rate, scientists can no longer account for 60 percent of the observed ozone depletion.”
Same old-same old
“A new NASA-funded study finds that predicted increases in precipitation due to warmer air temperatures from greenhouse gas emissions may actually increase sea ice volume in the Antarctic’s Southern Ocean.”
Back in the 60’s we had a theory.
1-Global Warming
2-More open water
3-More evaporation
4-More cloud
5-More Snow
6-Growing ice caps
It has been rediscovered
Which brings back memoies of a song, possibly written by or inspired by Robert Service, called”Till the ice worm nests again”.
In the land of the pale blue snow,
Where it’s ninety-nine below,
And the polar bears are roaming o’er the plain,
In the shadow of the Pole
I will clasp her to my soul,
We’ll be happy when the ice worms nest again.
PS there are two types of ice worms.
Those that live in glaciers, and those that are a strand of overcooked spagetti in a glass of gin or vodka.
The latter are more palatable.
It’s been a long day for a dangerous global warming/climate change skeptic.