While the sun still struggles to form cycle 24 spots like seen in this weak plage area (upper right) in today’s SOHO MDI and Magnetograms (shown below) Paul Stanko of NOAA writes to tell me of an interesting development in his tracking of the International Sunspot Number (ISN).
Paul writes:
My running mean of the International Sunspot Number for 2009 just dipped below 1.00. For anything comparable you now need to go back before 1913 (which scored a 1.43) which could mean we’re now competing directly with the Dalton Minimum.
Just in case you’d like another tidbit, here is something that puts our 20 to 30 day spotless runs in perspective… the mother of all spotless runs (in the heart of the Maunder Minimum, of course!) was from October 15, 1661 to August 2, 1671. It totaled 3579 consecutive spotless days, all of which had obs.
Errant counting of sunspecks from Catainia aside, it appears that we haven’t seen anything like this in modern history.
We live in interesting times.
Hey, this is my first time posting, and I am not a scientist but spend tons of time here and at CA. I couldn’t resist so here goes: you got it all wrong, it’s not the sunspots’ it’s that the Co2 is teleconnected and suppressing the formation of sunspots. See, it makes perfect sense! Mauna Loa records Co2 leveling off which apparently reached a “tipping” point and the sunspots stopped. And I’m a novice! I’m suprised you guys didn’t make the connection,LOL! Coincidence…I think not!
Sorry, I won’t do it again. 😉
Tom in Sun drenched Florida (11:42:37) :
Phillip Bratby (09:21:29) : “The BBC mentioned the quiet sun today and linked it to pictures of the frozen Thames in the Little Ice Age. But of course the BBC added that ’scientists’ said the quiet sun wouldn’t stop climate change (global warming)!!
Of course, if they claim a quieting Sun yet insist global warming continues they can then claim the Sun has no effect on global warming and conclude it proves the CO2 link.
Also, the BBC shows its colours by using the term “climate change” in a context where it actually means “global warming”. Seems climate can only change in one direction for the BBC.
Well, for once I am going to be an optimist (momentarily) and say that I am not going to worry about sunspots this week as we are heading towards 80 degrees down here in Charlotte, NC. I shall enjoy my view of the warm sun thus unobstructed by spots, real or imagined.
AEGeneral (10:05:57) :
JimB (07:42:12) :
“Hello.
My name is Jim, and I’m fat. I cause global warming.
Don’t be silly, Jim. Fat people have big shadows. You loveable, fat tubs of lard keep the planet cooler one quarter-pounder at a time.
Now go on with your fat self.”
Don’t forget that fat people will use less hot water when taking a bath.
Peter (09:31:20) : I asked this question once before, no one who knows answered, does anyone know if UV or lack therof has a thermal effect on oceans?
I would speculate that the reduced UV results in less ozone that opens the 9-10 micron IR window and lets the world cool off more. There are ozone related links under the “resources” tab at the top. One to look at is:
http://exp-studies.tor.ec.gc.ca/e/ozone/Curr_allmap_g.htm
Where the absolute ozone levels, I would speculate, show the impact of a Birkland type current from the sun making twin spots of high ozone at the N. Pole; while further down the anomaly map shows the generally lower than expected ozone levels globally.
Basically, my thesis would be that lower UV by 6% would mean lower ozone (the anomaly map seems to indicate 10=20% or so) that would mean a lot colder due to IR transparency in the band blocked mostly by ozone (almost only by ozone).
Speculative on my part, but I make money by speculating and have a pretty good sense for when the speculative is a good bet… speaking of which:
There is a long history of low sunspots having a direct correlation with grain production and thus an inverse correlation with grain prices. A reasonable speculation would be that crop failures will increase and grain prices will rise as yields drop. JJG is an exchange traded fund for grains, while DBA is a general agricultural goods ticker. COW is a combined cows, pigs, chickens ETF and if grain rises in price, so will meat.
this chart of commodities leads me to believe that JJG is at a bottom. WOOD has bottomed and is headed up and I’ve bought PCL Plum Creek Timber a REIT (Real Estate Investment Trust) that owns timber. JJA is roughly the same as DBA, a broad ag basket.
So I’d expect that, probably with a bit of time lag, as we cool off the grains, meat, and general ag commodities will rise in price.
DISCLOSURE: I own PCL and trade into JJG, DBA and JJA as trade indicators tell me to. (Though right now I’m more in mining, steel, and some retail – gotta love what COH Coach did today +16% !; when they slow down I’m planning to rotate some money back to ag.)
Maybe if fat people would wear white clothes, paint their cars, houses, lawns and pets white, the albedo changes will make up for any other shortcomings. Also sending money to Al Gore couldn’t hurt.
I’m resigned to living through a Maunder Type (Landscheidt) Minimum.
At this point it looks like for the most part it just means a sharper spring and fall like they get a few hours North of here … where I used to live.
Moisture being the biological constraint in the Northern Plains and with CO2 notched up somewhat from where photosynthesis shuts down, one or two summers of crop failures in the next 30 years from late springs and early frosts should be made up by increased yields overall.
The Pine Beetle are getting knocked back into traditional territory and it seems the local amphibians are even bouncing back with the minor (1970’s …ish) cooling since 2000. It won’t be all bad the next leg down 😉
SteveSadlov (09:41:29) : We should be preparing for something really bad. It would be practical and a moral imperative to specifically plan for a Maunder scenario while at least having a solid contingency plan for the end of the interglacial.
I used to be a closet survivalist, then I came out, now I’m an Urban Preparedness Advocate! 😉
The biggest issue from a LIA would be food shortages. I cover that somewhat (and what to do to prepare for it without really trying) in:
http://chiefio.wordpress.com/2009/04/06/food-storage-systems/
If you have spare cash in excess and don’t like doing things yourself, Google “food storage systems” and there are lots of folks who will sell you a prepackaged system with gallon cans of grains, sugar, etc. I did that once. It was OK, but it’s not what you are used to eating and it’s a bit of a pain to learn new ways of cooking. (When, last recession, I was out of work it did get eaten, so it wasn’t wasted.) But I like the DIY approach better.
It’s also possible to go to the camping goods store and stock up on dehydrated meals, but it’s expensive.
Basically, practice your camping skills and review what your ancestors did in the horse and buggy days (pre-supermarket… my “granny” in Iowa had a pantry the size of the kitchen and it was always stocked…)
Oh, and I have a generator (that got way too much use thanks to the brain dead government in California) and a few hundred gallons of water in plastic barrels for when the Big Quake hits. And a fireplace insert was added a few years back and I’ve planted a few ‘fast trees’ so if needed we can stay ‘warm enough’ on wood though mostly I just watch them grow and use natural gas…
SIDEBAR: To the inevitable AGW troll who wants to spin this as some kind of panic over a new ice age by AGW Denialists: Yes, I denounce and deny AGW. It isn’t happening. No, I don’t think we’re about to plunge into a new ice age. The onset is way to slow to worry about. I would be doing exactly the same preparations if AGW were real. Or if the whole controversy were gone. In fact, I started doing these preparations in about 1978 and have followed the “be prepared” mantra since my Boy Scout days. It has served me well through several personal events and through one 7.2 quake. It’s just a good idea to be prepared for the inevitable bad times, whatever might cause them.
Take note: D Archibald spot on again.
I don’t follow. Weren’t there observational records from around the world by this time? Was there a Chinese record in the Maunder, for example?
anna v (11:50:03) :
Leif had an interesting discussion about the uv radiation and water absoption. see: http://www.climateaudit.org/?p=3052
But the whole discussion is that of desperate global warmers… the effect of IR radiation forcing etc on the water absoption… bla bla bla
But the concentration of uv is very small, too small for significant heating of water. I wonder also if they accounted for the mixing of the water and the possible cavitation from the boat propllers in their study… http://www.realclimate.org/index.php/archives/2006/09/why-greenhouse-gases-heat-the-ocean/
There is a tiny spot!!
Out, damned spot! Out I say! one, two!
…Banquo’s ghost.
Re: a Chinese record in the Maunder, for example?
I thought John Eddy had been there and done that for us.
How is it going the Ap index righ now?
Thanks Lief!! Based on your sunspot analysis of the old ages we may well be entering a Maunder type event.
Those microsunspots seem to be part of the normal variability of the sun’s magnetic background.
Leif Svalgaard (08:15:59) : said,
There were not observations on all days. That is myth. When Hoyt and Schatten compiled their group sunspot number they vastly overstated their case of continuous observations. When an observer in foggy, rainy London (especially during the Little Ice Age!) exclaimed: “I have just seen a spot, having not seen one in three years”, it is false to claim that there were ~1000 observations (one every day, rain or shine) with no spots.
Why mention foggy, rainy LONDON, why not SUNNY SOUTH OF FRANCE, SUNNY SPAIN, SUNNY ITALY, anyway it was not foggy and rainy for three years and a decent sunspot should last more than a couple of days.
Bill P (13:19:41) :
I don’t follow. Weren’t there observational records from around the world by this time? Was there a Chinese record in the Maunder, for example?
The Maunder minimum is not in doubt, just that there were observations on every single day, which there most certainly were not.
Leon Brozyna (11:28:12) :
Maunder Minimum — 3579 consecutive spotless days.
There is no credible evidence of that. See some of the previous remarks on this.
“I used to be a closet survivalist, then I came out, now I’m an Urban Preparedness Advocate! 😉 … Basically, practice your camping skills ….”
Coincidentally, I just ordered a compact, efficient, lightweight, wood- and alcohol-burning “Littlbug Stove” that was recommended on the Cool Tools website, here:
http://www.kk.org/cooltools/archives/003640.php
Hello.
My name is Jim, and I’m fat. I cause global warming.
http://www.foxnews.com/story/0,2933,517264,00.html
The article only mentions the addtional CO2 caused by obese people. I think the methane is the biggest concern. Especially to those sitting nearby !
Jim B in Canada (09:06:55) :
I have to differ, you do not necessary have to watch “one every day, rain or shine” sun spots track across the sun over several days.
While in general true, the reports we have are much more vague, like “I didn’t see a spot all of last year”, not “I observed on Jan1st, Jan 5th, Jan 8th, …, Dec 21st, Dec 26th, and Dec 31st, and never saw a spot”. And they were not specifically looking for spots, so while there is no doubt the Maunder Minimum time was poor on observable spots, there is no credible evidence for an unbroken string of 3500 days without a single spot.
SSN is no problem for NOAA, like next storms season, if you take a too long shower they will name it as a hurricane grade 1.
Rob (13:46:57) :
Why mention foggy, rainy LONDON,
Because Hoyt and Schatten specifically show in their tables yearly tables for English observers that claim observations EVERY SINGLE DAY for years on end. Now, you can say, “so, well, there were wrong on those, but they are certainly correct on the others (in sunny Spain)”, but there you take leave of my criteria for ‘credible’ evidence, but if you must, you can, of course, do that.
Tom in Sun drenched Florida (11:42:37) :
Except the globe isn’t warming.