Since we have been on the subject of Arctic expeditions this week, I thought I’d share this short essay sent to me by WUWT reader “thoughtful”. It has some interesting perspectives from a NAVY expedition called “Operation Nanook” which is supported by the newspaper clipping from the Berkshire County Eagle (Pittsfield, MA) of October 16th, 1946. It was one of those rare times when a Northwest Passage appears to have been possible – Anthony
Looking at timelines of arctic exploration, we find that virtually nobody went there during the 30s and early 40s, despite that correlating with the warmest temperatures on record (great Depression, WW II, go figure). Attached is an account of an arctic naval expedition (Operation Nanook) that took place the summer of 1946, just after WWII. Vinther, et al (1) reports the merged JJA monthly temps were in the 7.3 to 7.4 deg C range in Greenland between 1931 and 1950. In the 1990s, it was a full degree C lower. The “norm” for Thule in JJA runs somewhere around 4 – 5 deg C (1961 to current data).
Here’s another account from the same expedition: “On 4 July 1946, Atule headed for the frozen north as a member of Operation “Nanook.” The purpose of this mission was to assist in the establishment of advanced weather stations in the Arctic regions and to aid in the planning and execution of more extensive naval operations in polar and sub-polar regions. In company with USS Norton Sound (AV-11), USCGC Northwind (WAG-282), USS Alcona (AK-157), USS Beltrami (AK-162), and USS Whitewood (AN-63), Atule was to transport supplies and passengers, conduct reconnaissance of proposed weather station sites, train personnel, and collect data on Arctic conditions.
Atule rendezvoused with Northwind and Whitewood off the southwestern coast of Greenland on 11 July 1946 and put into Melville Bight, Baffin Bay, on 20 July, while a PBM reconnoitered Thule Harbor and the approaches to the harbor. Following engine trouble the PBM had made an emergency landing; and Atule was dispatched to recover the plane, becoming the first ship of the operation to enter the harbor. Atule then conducted tests and exercises in Smith South-Kane Basin with Whitewood. During one such exercise, she reached latitude 79 degrees 11 minutes north in the Kane Basin, setting a record for the United States Navy. On 29 July, Atule departed Thule, having completed all of her scheduled projects, stopped at Halifax, Nova Scotia, and reached New London late in August to resume her former duties.”
It would be fascinating to visit the naval archives and see ships logs from this expedition. One wonders what the sea ice extent was then. I do note that the Kane Basin was at least partially iced over on August 10, 2007 — the nearest data I’ve got to July for the recent 2007 minimum (and probably represents less ice than July).
Reference
(1) Extending Greenland temperature records into the late eighteenth
century B. M. Vinther,1 K. K. Andersen,1 P. D. Jones,2 K. R. Briffa,2 and J. Cappelen3
Received 24 October 2005; revised 11 January 2006; accepted 28 February 2006; published 6 June 2006.
JOURNAL OF GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH, VOL. 111, D11105, doi: 10.1029/2005JD006810, 2006 )
Caleb (09:07:50) :
anon (01:25:07) :
I keep getting that link you gave to University of Illinois data at
http://arctic.atmos.uiuc.edu/SEAICE/timeseries.1870-2007
thrown in my face, every time I express doubt that current ice levels are that much less than levels were in the past.
Does anyone know how they arrived at their ice-levels for pre-satellite years?
“Were they just making “educated guesses?”
Guesses, yes. How educated they were is anyones guess. My guess is its all bs.
http://www.cgd.ucar.edu/cas/guide/Data/walsh.html
That UIUC ice series is of course pure nonsense. In 1870 large parts of the Arctic had never even been visited by humans, so obviously no-one knows how much ice there was there, much less on an annual basis.
I think that by a thorough archive search (mostly but not exclusively in Norway, Denmark, Canada and Russia) you might possibly get some idea about annual ice area from the 1930’s on, but no further back, because before that large parts of the Arctic were simply not visited annually.
In this context it is interesting to note that Soviet expeditions circumnavigated Franz Joseph’s land and Severnaya Zemlya in 1932. The former has been possible again in the last few summers, but not the latter.
Thanks to all who gave me the links to the University of Illinois site.
I am glad the fellows at the University are humble and state their information should be “used with care.”
Now it is my turn to be humble, and confess I am very busy, and do not always have time to properly search and research, before opening my big mouth. Call me lazy if you will, but sometimes I just ask questions, and other people, on this site and on other sites, supply me with answers. Of course, they sometimes point out my cyber-laziness in the process, but I don’t mind that.
Now I’ll be non-humble: I am actually jealous of people who are able to spend so much time on their computers, because I have to plant a truck-garden which covers nearly an acre, plus feed goats and chickens, plus milk twice a day, plus sell eggs and milk, plus shovel manure, plus etc., etc., etc. When it comes to grunt-work, I’m not so lazy, and in fact could likely out-work 95% of the computer geeks who suggest I’m lazy.
Now I’ll be indignant: The only one who really has any right to suggest I’m lazy is my wife, but she only does so when she catches me sneaking off to my computer to see what’s happening on WUWT.
Farmers like me, who spend a lot of time outdoors, really need to know what is going on with the weather. We stand to lose a lot if we plant warmth-loving tomatoes on a cold year when few will ripen (which happened to me in 1993, post-Pinetubo.) If we hear warming is a “fact,” we may gamble and plant peach trees in a location where sub-zero wind-chill would have killed them in former times, (because fresh, soft peaches are fifty times better than the rocks you buy at grocery stores.) If it turns out warming is not a “fact,” the peach saplings are screwed, and so are we.
I’m always in a hurry, and sometimes the questions I ask may seem simple, blunt, and even rude, but I really do appreciate answers, especially when they are simple, blunt, and even rude.
This is pretty interesting, from the Univercity of Illinois website:
“Because most of the direct observations of sea ice (1870-1971 period) are from ships at sea, they are generally the most complete near the ice edge. The conditions north of the ice edge are often assumed to be 100% covered during this period. The satellite era has shown otherwise with concentrations between 70-90% frequently occurring well north of the ice edge in the post-1972 data. For this reason, we recommend using a measure of ice extent, when doing historical comparisons of hemispheric sea ice coverage for periods which include data prior to 1972. This is done by assuming that all grid points with ice concentrations greater than some threshold (15% is commonly used) is assumed completely covered by sea ice.”
The “extent” could therefore appear larger on a warm year, when the ice is basically broken slush, than a cold year, when it was basically a solid block?
steptoe fan (19:29:41) :
Your quotes from the Ocean Watch site are the reason for my comment that should they decline to do “science” – it becomes a relatively harmless eco-stunt. Given the drubbing that AGW has been getting of late, and the apparent collapse of the Caitlin mission – I would be surprised if Ocean Watch did not amend their claims to be doing anything more than eco-stunt PR. Which I find mostly harmless provided they don’t spin an “ocean acidification is killing the whales” – type alarm.
It might be refreshing to see their “mission” amend itself from any mention of warming to reporting real pollutants. However, I understand your skepticism and suggest that it’s a perfect example of AGW blowback.
The ring of pearls is back at CT… At least it is on the IPod display for 4/10
Caleb (05:55:32) :
“The “extent” could therefore appear larger on a warm year, when the ice is basically broken slush, than a cold year, when it was basically a solid block?”
I think there is a general misconception that the arctic icecap is a solid frozen block that sits on top of the arctic pond. There is a tremendous amount of energy in the arctic currents that are tearing ice apart in one area and jamming it together to cause ridges and rubble in others. It never really is a solid block but is a moving mass or pack of ice that can shift on the order of multiple kilometers in on day. Here’s a great reference:
http://www.john-daly.com/polar/arctic.htm
It’s about a 45 minute read but well worth it. Good luck with your farm. I’m happy to see WUWT reaching the heart of America.
Bill: well-spotted. I don’t know the answer, but I suspect the NW passage has been navigated rather more often than Al Gore would care to discover.
Shame, that man – Al Gore. He once wrote a really thoughtful book. Seems something about running for the Presidency, and being fraudulently put out of it, corrupted him badly.
Caleb: I love your attitude.
Doubtville :
I do agree, a publicity stunt to call attention to the human discards ( floating debris ) polluting our oceans is fine by me . Conservation of the ocean food sources is also worthy of such stunts . Lets see where this goes .
Shawn Whelan (08:48:30) :
It was in ‘46 or ‘47 that US ships went down the passage and founded Resolute. They intended to put Resolute farther west and were stopped by the high ice levels. A few years before there had been very little ice.
My understanding was that Resolute was a joint project between Canada and the US.
The Canadian government was very sensitive at that time to attempts that the US had made to exercise authority over Canada in the Arctic after WWII.
Deep Climate,
kudos for purposely ignoring the previous known ships who navigated the Northwest passage without the help of GPS, Satellite Maps, or modern hulls and engines.
Even better you are willing to accept made up data instead of real life experiences!!
WAY TO GO!!!!!
My understanding was that Resolute was a joint project between Canada and the US.
The Canadian government was very sensitive at that time to attempts that the US had made to exercise authority over Canada in the Arctic after WWII.
The St. Roch which had so easily travelled the Northrn Route of the NW Passage in 1944 was unable to enter the passage do to the increased ice levels. So the Canadians did not send any ships.
Based on history I expect the Arctic to refreeze this year much like in the later ’40’s.
“Lucy Skywalker (00:44:01) :
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Northwest_Passage
“The first recorded succesful passage was that of João Martins, in 1588, 265 years pryor to the Mac-clure trip, a portuguese explorer en route to the Philipines, both discovering the passage and the Bering Straight.[8]”
Re: This comment, further up the comments, is utter fiction there is no such explorer or voyage of the period mentioned, someone did add this fictional reference to wiki but it has been removed, is there nothing deniers won’t do to try and make their false claims work. The force was weak with this Skywalker .