Guest post by Steve Goddard
Reading through the recent blog posts of the Catlin expedition, it has become apparent that they have made errors in judgment. Team member Martin Hartley is suffering from frostbite, and hasn’t been able to sleep for nearly a week.
The current temperature is -42C (-44F.) The sensible course of action would be to evacuate Martin to someplace warm where he can receive proper medical attention. Cold and lack of sleep make healing impossible and threaten his health. I have camped in tents in -30C weather, and it is all about survival – nothing else has any meaning when you are that cold.
The wet sleeping bags are apparently the result of a poor decision.
Indeed, the scientific merit of the expedition is questionable.
I made 48 snow measurements after we’d stopped walking today – the best yet.
What is the point of taking a lot of measurements at one location on the same day? Arctic ice continuously shifts and melts or freezes, and the ice they are standing on will have moved hundreds or thousands of miles by next year. The temperature is -42C. No doubt the ice is getting thicker at that temperature.
Meanwhile, the expedition sponsor (HRH The Prince of Wales) has been jetting around South America enjoying the life of entitlement currently reserved for global warming patrons. The formula is simple – as long as a celebrity keeps talking about global warming, their carbon footprint and lifestyle excesses are above reproach. Perhaps if AIG had of named their bonuses “carbon offsets,” they could be partying in South America too.
As of today, global sea ice area is again above normal.
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The Catlin site has now removed the ice measurement “standby” graphic, but for the first time thaty have turned on thier biotelemetry instruments.
Core temps are around 37 degrees.
Check it out:
http://www.catlinarcticsurvey.com/live_from_the_ice.aspx
Ann has set fire to her tent!!! Cool.
And “The stoves have been a bit temperamental in the extreme cold ”
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/sci/tech/7897392.stm
The map shows just how well they are doing.
Well they are now showing respiration and heart beats, so the team members cannot be dead, but 2 of them show 0 deg C core temps and the third (Ann) is showing core temps near 20-28 deg C.
Looks like their bio data is not too useful at the moment.
Certainly not good enough for a base camp medical team to make much judgment about their actual core temps.
Larry
Heart rate under 100bpm with respatory rates of over 150 and as high as 300 breaths per minute. Hyperventilating? Can’t be right. Skin temps of 30.5 BRRR.
4 days without sleep, frostbite, and improper equipment? I would be calling in an evac and looking to come with with proper equipment.
This from today’s ‘Latest Update’
[that last comment should have read]
This from today’s ‘Latest Update’
“The ice in the area they are crossing is very active and the team need to be alert to sudden changes at all times, as Ann found out when she sat down on a pressure ridge for a break in the middle of the day, only for the ice to suddenly start breaking up underneath her. Needless to say she cut her tea break short and moved on rather quickly. ”
This reads sort of odd to me. Way too dramatic for someone journaling. Maybe I am just tainted and overly sceptical. On the other hand maybe there is a bit of elaboration going on in the telling of this tale.
I can’t wait for the part where they have to swim the last 600 km. That really will be exciting. I hope they can keep up their ‘Updates’ without too much problem.
I recently wrote to Jonathon Amos at the BBC about the Catlin Arctic survey. Below is my question and at the end is Jonathon’s answer. Make of it what you will …………
Sent: 21 March 2009 19:32
To: Jonathan Amos-Online
Subject: BBC : The Catlin Arctic Survey.
Dear Jonathan
I refer to your recent article on the BBC website (link here).http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/sci/tech/7902766.stm I have been following with interest the brave work of the three polar explorers who are currently exploring the Arctic and studying the level of ice decline that is taking place and I have come across the following article (see attached link) that has left me with some questions about this Arctic expedition and the BBC’s coverage of it and the questions not asked / points not made by the BBC. http://wattsupwiththat.com/2009/03/18/arctic-ice-thickness-measured-from-buoys/ Having read this article, I would be grateful if you look at the following questions and explain why your BBC website article does not raise these points for the reader nor does it draw attention to the fact that any evidence from the Catlin Arctic Survey will have major limitations :
1. how are the explorers able to measure ice decline from a single set of data points taken at minus 40C, measured over an eight week period?.
2. Will the team be revisiting the site next year for further measurements ?
3. If the ice is not in the same place as last year due to being moved around by the wind, how will this impact upon the consistency and integrity of the ice data that is being collected?
4.The fact that the US Army keeps a set of buoys on the ice which continuously monitor ice thickness, temperature and location year round and are normally able to provide more than one year of data?. This is a better and more consistent source of information than that being obtained by the Catlin Survey.
5. The Wattsupwiththat blog also makes the following points :
(a) “All five buoys show water temperatures indicating ice thickness in the range of 3-4 metres. Catlin is attempting to take another 10,000 or so measurements on the shifting, moving ice they are trying to travel across. While that data may be useful in understanding the local behaviour of the ice, it likely will provide little information about long-term ice trends, unless the same measurements are taken on a consistent basis over many years”.
(b) “You can also see in the 2007J graph above that the ice has thickened at least half a metre since March, 2008.” The above point claims that the ice has thickened since March 2008. Is this correct and if so how does this fit with the explorers claims that the ice is getting thinner and why has the BBC not pointed out the limitations of the Catlin Surveys evidence. Can you confirm if you are going to raise these points in future BBC website articles on this subject, as in the interests of balance and understanding of the subject matter these points need to be raised. If you will not be raising these valid points, could you explain why not?
Thank You.
RESPONSE FROM BBC
From: “Jonathan Amos-Online”
Sunday, 22 March, 2009 10:24 PM
Mark
(1) This is another useful dataset that samples the ice when it is at its thickest (re-read the article for why that is important). It will be considered with all the other datasets – in situ, buoys, submarines, satellites, etc – that have been gathered down the years in different parts of the Arctic (again, as the article makes clear). The acquired dataset becomes a very useful tool to calibrate the satellites that are overflying the region now and to constrain the models (again, as stated in the article). For example, the operators of Envisat, ERS-2 and IceSat will want to see if their algorithms are seeing similar thicknesses to the Catlin data. This will give them confidence in interpreting the satellite data from years past and into the future. “No other information on ice thickness like this is expected to be made available to the scientific community in 2009.” More data is normally a good thing.
(2) It is my understanding that there is an intention to repeat the survey.
(3) See point 1 above
(4) I’ve written about these devices previously. You can see a picture of the set-up at http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/science/nature/7141635.stm These are deliberately placed on the oldest, thickest blocks of ice. This way you can measure yearly erosion and growth. Try putting one of these buoys on first-year ice and you will need to buy a new one every September.
(5) (a) See point 1 above
(5) (b) Whether the ice is thicker or thinner in any 12 months tells us little. Natural variability over such a timescale can easily hide a negative or positive trend http://nsidc.org/images/arcticseaicenews/200903_Figure3.png
A suggestion: Ignore what journalists like me write, and ignore the chatter in the blogosphere. Instead, go to a major conference like AGU or EGU and attend the cryosphere sessions. Speak to real scientists who spend their lives studying the Arctic and the Antarctic. Ask them what they think is happening. Go to the source. Hope that helps.
Jonathan.
The previous email I sent to Jonathon Amos at the BBC was also sent to the group themselves. Again, make of it what you will….
Re: The Catlin Arctic Survey.Sunday,
22 March, 2009 12:45 PM
From: “Catlin Arctic Survey”
Hi Mark,
Many thanks for your email. We read the wattsupwiththat.com post ourselves. Steven Goddard puts forward a number of interesting points, many of which are deserving of answers. However, he also makes a number of dubious assertions and in some cases inaccurate statements.
That being the case, I think we might try and write a response to Steven’s article and submit it to wattsupwiththat.com ourselves. At present, however, there’s a big focus on the operational aspects of the project and we’re not really set up to counter each and every criticism of the project (and there will be other criticisms, as everybody nowadays has an opinion on climate science). So it may take us a week or so before we’re in a position to write an accurate, properly-referenced, academic reply.
So if you can bear with us for a while, we’ll deal with this shortly. Basically, however, we don’t have to keep returning every single year, although we certainly havn’t discounted regular return visits; we are aware of the buoys, and we’re not trying to compete with them but complement them (in the same way that we’re complementing satellite and submarine based data on ice thickness – this is about collaboration, not competition between data sets); and there is no doubt whatsoever amongst the scientific community that the Arctic sea ice is diminishing – even Steven Goddard’s own source (http://imb.crrel.usace.army.mil/change.htm) states this to be true.
Hopefully more to follow.
With kind regards,
Simon
Mark
Well done in establishing a dialogue with the players, BBC and the expedition itself. I truly look forward to the possibility that this forum that might develop into an intelligent exchange between the parties.
To the guys on the ice … felicitations and well done that you take the time to read Watts. I tip my hat to you for that. And in common with most posters wish you well personally. The (perceived) hyper-reporting of frostbite and physical distress and so on was either over-the-top for dramatic purposes or the concerns to get you guys off the ice were/are real.
I can’t speak for any other poster on this thread as I don’t know any of them (nah, I think I do know one), but please realize that while some of us (that would include me) think what you’re doing is a ‘reality TV’ type show, primarily an attention-grabbing marketing exercise for the insurance guys (which is patently working chuckle, so well done there insurance guys), I hope you think safety first and either get the heck out of there if the reports of frostbite (you know how serious that is fer chrissake) and so on are true … or if they are exaggerations for dramatic effect, well, maybe just report the grinding facts rather than the Hollywood stuff. It makes no sense to this cracker or his medical friends that you are still on the ice if your ‘in extremis’ reports are true.
As I said, look after yourselves and try to report free of agenda. The info isn’t of much importance given so much alternative data, but personal integrity is.
Stay warm (I mean it).
Saludos,
Alec
A properly-referenced academic reply between a frostbite and a soggy sleeping bag? Have they gone ga-ga completely?
I am sure we can all wait for an answer until they will come back safe (and mentally sound!).
Most Arctic ice websites are now reporting that maximum ice extent has occurred.
“March 30, 2009
Annual maximum ice extent confirmed
Arctic sea ice extent reached its maximum extent for the year, marking the beginning of the melt season. This year’s maximum was the fifth lowest in the satellite record. NSIDC will release a more detailed analysis of winter sea ice conditions during the second week of April…
…On February 28, Arctic sea ice reached its maximum extent for the year, at 15.14 million square kilometers (5.85 million square miles). The maximum extent was 720,000 square kilometers (278,000 square miles) below the 1979 to 2000 average of 15.86 million square kilometers (6.12 million square miles), making it the fifth-lowest maximum extent in the satellite record. The six lowest maximum extents since 1979 have all occurred in the last six years (2004 to 2009).
graph with months on x axis and extent on y axis Figure 2. The graph above shows daily sea ice extent. The solid blue line indicates 2008 to 2009; the dashed green line shows 2006 to 2007 (the record-low summer minimum occurred in 2007); and the solid gray line indicates average extent from 1979 to 2000. Sea Ice Index data.
—Credit: National Snow and Ice Data Center”
So this means that either it is getting worse, or the trend shows a slow recovery. If this is the 5th lowest out of 6 years of lowest ice, it looks like a recovery is in process.
Pamela,
Please – How many years are there in the satellite record?
If this is the 5th lowest out of 6 years of lowest ice, it looks like a recovery is in process. – Agreed looks like a recovery – but still too early to tell. This NH Summer should be especially interesting wrt arctic sea ice extent.
Thanks. G
Latest from the ice -45C
“Plummeting temperatures today took the thermometer off the bottom of the scale, which means the team are currently enduring temperatures lower than -45°C. These extreme temperatures, the coldest experienced by the team so far in this expedition, have the strange physical side effect of causing the team to sound almost drunk as they slur their words and cognitive reactions are noticeably slower.
The relentless cold is utterly exhausting, but despite this, the team crossed the 83°N landmark and covered nearly 14.5km.
“
Pen Hadow audio interview dated today:
http://www.catlinarcticsurvey.com/gallery_video.aspx?id=62
I look forward to Simon@Catlin’s piece. Particularly his analysis of my “dubious” and “inaccurate” statements – and I have one question to ask of him.
Will the 2009 Arctic summer minimum ice extent be greater or less than the previous two years?
I also look forward to the safe return of the ice team.
Hmm … people slurring words in extreme makes me worry about hypothermia. You don’t slur because of the cold, provided you are dressed properly, but you will if your core body temperature is dopping into the hypothermic range.
All the symptoms mentioned in hengav’s post are the first symptoms of hypothermia. When I worked outdoors, anyone with these symptoms would be brought in to warmth and shelter asap.
Hopefully at least one member of the party, or support team, knows this since people can deteriorate rapidly in these extreme temperatures.
I ran some Google searches for the “Catlin expedition” and I don’t know if I am missing something but I couldn’t find squat. Sure, I found the Guardian & BBC articles but everywhere else things are quiet. Considering the “follow the team” page is setup for twitter, facebook, youtube, google earth, and iPod, I tend to believe they were expecting an electronic turnout for their adventure.
It would seem the only turnout is from WUWT, go figure. As said earlier I believe they may be making more of the trials they face than exists, but I sympathize that the intended audience doesn’t acknowledge their efforts. Going through what they are for only recognition from the opposition must be disappointing. Oh well, at least the trip is paid for.
Daniel
Nice connection to AIG but – why give them MORE ideas of how to get away with pandering to their elitist buddies on Wall Street?