I’m unable to setup a graph for these while I’m on the road, so a short table will have to do:
RSS (Remote Sensing Systems, Santa Rosa)
RSS data here (RSS Data Version 3.2)
RSS Jan09 .322
RSS Feb09 .230
UAH (University of Alabama, Huntsville)
Reference: UAH lower troposphere data
UAH Jan09 .304
UAH Feb09 .350
Oddly, a divergence has developed, and opposite in direction to boot. The only thing more puzzling today is Andy Revkin.
UPDATE: I spoke with Dr. Roy Spencer at the ICCC this morning (3/10) and asked him about the data divergence. Dr. Spencer had not yet seen that data, since he has been attending a conference. The data of course has been released by his associates and staff back at UAH. Here is what he had to say:
“I believe it has to do with the differences in how diurnal variation is tracked and adjusted for.” he said. I noted that Feburary was a month with large diurnal variations.
For that reason, UAH has been using data from the AQUA satellite MSU, and RSS to my knowledge does not, and makes an adjustment to account for it. I believe our data [UAH] is probably closer to the true anomaly temperature, and if I’m right, we’ll see the two datasets converge again when the diurnal variations are minimized.”
For layman readers that don’t know what diurnal variation is, it is the daily variation of temperature due to the variation of incoming solar radiation from rotation of the earth on its axis.
It looks like this:
Source: http://apollo.lsc.vsc.edu/classes/met130/notes/chapter3/daily_trend4.html
Just another observation on the UAH data.
Down here in Australia there was a wide consensus in the scientific community that proof of Global Warming had now been verified by the bushfire events in Victoria and associated heatwave across SE Australia. In fact there has been much discussion on this blog regarding the fires and AGW links.
Assuming that the UAH data is correct, then yes we can observe it was warmer than average in February. In fact a whole 0.016 of a degree warmer down under.
Never let the facts get in the way of a good story ! Al Gore certainly doesn’t 🙂
Allan M R MacRae (05:17:26) :
Please keep in mind that the UAH LT anomaly is a mathematical difference – the LT temperature parameter minus the average temperature of a similar parameter from 1979 to 1998 inclusive – and this “LT Base” occurred in a period of modest cyclical warming.
If global temperatures are indeed natural and cyclical, as I believe, and we are now entering a cooling period, you would see a leveling off of the recent warming around the turn of the century, and now a moderate decline, which is in fact what is happening.
What will happen next is anyone’s guess, since the science is not settled.
I will predict further cooling, with up and down variability, for the next 20-30 years, based on the PDO shift to cool mode.
Hope I’m wrong – I like it a bit warmer.
Regards, Allan
Notes:
Corrected text above – used “variability” rather than “irregularity” – a different topic entirely. 🙂
For those who have difficulty understanding what is happening, please look at a sine wave. Earth average temperature has now crested the top, and is heading downward again, as in the 1940’s. That is why temperatures are still high, and declining. Not very difficult after all…
Clive (05:51:23) :
PS… ditto what Allan MacR said … wind chill here in S Alberta is minus 34°C this morning … sheesh.
Agree Clive – This winter is long and cold, and getting very tiresome.
Reminds me of the last cold period in the 1970’s.
It’s bloody freezing here in the West.
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“I certainly won’t be starting a blog where I just let everybody and everyone say whatever they want and continuously contradict each other in the process.”
56, in self-imposed timeout for being too “grumpy”. Blogs need content, good luck with that.
For those who have difficulty understanding what is happening, please look at a sine wave. Earth average temperature has now crested the top, and is heading downward again, as in the 1940’s. That is why temperatures are still high, and declining. Not very difficult after all…
you are mixing up the US temperature with the global one.
http://www.woodfortrees.org/plot/hadcrut3vgl/plot/gistemp
the global temperature only dropped a little.
Does anyone know where I can get the “base” temperatures for UAH and RSS? I.e., the anomalies are differences between the current temperature and a base temperature. I’m curious as to the temperature variation within a year. We’re closest to the sun in January, so the average temperature should be highest then. But I need the base numbers to verify this.
Also, the difference between UAH and RSS for February seems to be largely because UAH is up in the northern hemisphere and RSS is not. Any ideas why this specific divergence?
UAH Feb Months.
http://i599.photobucket.com/albums/tt74/MartinGAtkins/UAH-Feb.jpg
RSS MSU Feb Months.
http://i599.photobucket.com/albums/tt74/MartinGAtkins/RSS-MSU-Feb.jpg
Arctic UAH.
http://i599.photobucket.com/albums/tt74/MartinGAtkins/Arctic-UAH.jpg
Antarctic UAH.
http://i599.photobucket.com/albums/tt74/MartinGAtkins/Antarctic-UAH.jpg
It’s nearly mid March, and I woke up this morning to -34C (actual temp, not windchill). This is ridiculous. In my memory, this is the longest cold snap we’ve ever had here in Saskatoon. I’m torn – I want spring to come already, but I also want spring to be late so I can tell my young warmist friends “I told you so”.
Coldest March 11th on Record for Regina ( http://www.leaderpost.com/Technology/Coldest+March+record+Regina/1377781/story.html )
I am 51 years old.
Rover Austin – perfect understanding is impossible. Yet we must form views on which to take action. If you think I’m wrong, fire away. But my skepticism was that natural variation swamped AGW effects. Now that I think much of that natural variation comes from the PDO, it seems clear to me that warming will return once the PDO flips again.
Do you have an alternative hypothesis for the source of unmodelled natural variation?
GISS Feb anomaly is +0.41.
It’s quite possible that the Hadley (1961-90) anomaly will be below the UAH anomaly.
GISS data for February is out, the anomaly being +0,41ºC, going down from the +0,51ºC of January. Feb 2008 and Feb 2009 are now the two coldest februaries since 1997, according to GISS.
Best regards.
It’s quite possible that the Hadley (1961-90) anomaly will be below the UAH anomaly.
Yep – by a whisker. Hadley Feb anomaly is 0.35. Using the same base period (1979-97) as the satellite data puts both Hadley and GISS much closer to RSS than to UAH.