Gosh! Who would think a climate scientist could get so angry about people criticizing a politician? Here is an amazing exchange seen on Prometheus. Some highlights and excerpts follow
- Gore Critics are “Palpably evil”
- Suggests critiquing Gore’s science “morally comparable to killing 1,000 people”
According to his bio, Michael Tobis of the University of Texas is a “Research Scientist Associate (in practice, mostly a software engineer) at the University of Texas Institute for Geophysics in the delightful city of Austin.” Tobis is also editor of the EGU journal Geoscientific Model Development.
Here’s an excerpt from the blog conversation:
“As for the scope of the ethical risk, let us consider the possibility that the behavior of the Times and the Post this year increases the chance of an extreme event with a premature mortality of a billion people by a mere part per million, a per cent of a per cent of a per cent. The expected mortality from this is a thousand people. Is that morally equivalent to actually killing a thousand people? It’s not all that obvious to me that it isn’t.” […] Tobis later asks: “I’d sure like to know how I ‘gave ammunition to my enemies’”
Pielke Jr. writes about kerfluffle:
“I am beginning to get a better understanding why some scientists react so strongly to some of the things we write here at Prometheus. For instance, one climate scientist suggests that my calling out Al Gore for misrepresenting the science of disasters and climate change (as well as Andy Revkin’s comparison of that to George Will’s misrepresentations) to be the morally comparable to killing 1,000 people. I kid you not. I wonder how many climate scientists share this perspective.”
Keith Kloor, a journalist, summarizes the exchange [Pielke Jr.] had this week with that climate scientist: http://www.collide-a-scape.com/2009/03/02/climate-gutterball/
What are we to make of Michael Tobis, a University of Texas climate scientist, who on his blog recently said this about Revkin: “I don’t think his dragging Gore into Will’s muck was a minor transgression of a fine point of propriety. I think it was palpably evil.” (End excerpt of Tobis.) […]
Tobis is just getting warmed up. In the comment thread of his post, he has this exchange (which I’m excerpting) with Roger Pielke Jr (who Tobis and other bloggers blame equally for his role in the Revkin piece that equates Gore with Will). Tobis: “It is difficult for me to state how grave I think the transgression of ethics committed by Revkin and Pielke in this matter is. Consider some statistical expectation of human lives that will likely be lost as a consequence of the delay due to this confusion. I think such a number could present a very grave picture indeed.”
Pielke Jr’s response.:
“If you think that it was unethical for me to point out that Gore was misrepresenting the relationship of disasters and climate change (based on my research I should add), then I am really amazed. What kind of scientist says that misrepresentations are OK or should be ignored if politicians with the right values are making them? [And maybe I read you wrong, but are you really suggesting that Revkin and I are complicit in “statistical deaths”? Please do clarify that odd claim …]”
Tobis obliges:
“Implying an equivalence between Gore, who is constantly treading a fine line between effective politics and truthful description of risks, and George Will, who is wrong from beginning to end in conception, detail and emphasis is unacceptable because it perpetuates this dangerous skew. As for the scope of the ethical risk, let us consider the possibility that the behavior of the Times and the Post this year increases the chance of an extreme event with a premature mortality of a billion people by a mere part per million, a per cent of a per cent of a per cent. The expected mortality from this is a thousand people. Is that morally equivalent to actually killing a thousand people? It’s not all that obvious to me that it isn’t.” – Pielke is incredulous: “Wow. These sort comments give far more ammo to your political enemies than anything I could ever say or do. Eye opening stuff.” – Tobis asks later in the exchange: “I’d sure like to know how I ‘gave ammunition to my enemies’? – Pielke Jr. is now asking on his blog: “Anyone care to give him an answer?”
Read it on Prometheus
it’s a red warning flag at very least when language starts to head in that direction; when an idea is being flagged as morally comparable to 1000 deaths because it conflicts with a belief of one’s own, it can be a projection of the worth of one’s own belief.
Historically there seems to be but a short evolutionary step in political or religious ideologies – especially when you’re saving the entire race or planet – from the idea of a virtual number of lives the opposition is murdering by criticising the belief, to a number of virtual lives being saved by the belief, to the number of actual lives the idea is worth full stop, to the number of lives that can safely be sacrificed in order to save them.
RE:“Gore, who is constantly treading a fine line between effective politics and truthful description of risks,”
“Gore, who is constantly threading a fine line between seductive polemics and the truther description of risks,” – there, fixed that for ya.
In other news, Cracker Jack advises there is a recall on their climate science degree boxes. Apparently there is no longer a prize in the box…
Neutron Monitor Smorgasbord: All the monitors you ever wanted to see.
So how’s my counts now?
http://neutronm.bartol.udel.edu//realtime/newark.html
http://www.puk.ac.za/opencms/export/PUK/html/fakulteite/natuur/nm_data/data/sanaenm_e.html
http://www.puk.ac.za/opencms/export/PUK/html/fakulteite/natuur/nm_data/data/hermanus_e.html
http://oldcr.oulu.fi/Request.dll?Y1=2008&M1=Jan&D1=01&h1=00&m1=00&Y2=2009&M2=Mar&D2=02&h2=00&m2=00&YR=00&MR=00&DR=01&hR=00&mR=00&PD=1
http://neutronm.bartol.udel.edu//realtime/inuvik.html
http://cgm.iszf.irk.ru/
http://neutronmonitor.ta3.sk/realtime.php
http://132.248.105.25/ (Mexico , check Daily button)
http://pgi.webhop.net/observatory/nmonitor/
http://pgia.ru/CosmicRay/
http://cosray.phys.uoa.gr/
http://neutronm.bartol.udel.edu//realtime/fortsmith.html
http://neutronm.bartol.udel.edu//realtime/mcmurdo.html
http://ybjnm.ihep.ac.cn/nm/ (try Jan 2008 to Mar 2, 2009, hourly res.)
Answer: Flat to up.
“Consider some statistical expectation of human lives that will likely be lost as a consequence of the delay due to this confusion. I think such a number could present a very grave picture indeed.”
some statistical expectation considered. “Grave” – an unfortunate choice of words.
A bit off topic but a wonderful read is this German news article that says I will be done in from climate change due to sea worms farting out laughing gas. I kid you not. Read it .
Cheers and thanks for putting up the good fight.
Ethanol producers are going out of business around here. You would think that the bail-out would be targeted towards these businesses, given the constant drumbeat on capital hill regarding dirty oil and coal.
Or maybe the drumbeat was for the purpose of getting votes from a fringe voting block. Don’t tell me that Obama did exactly what Bush did?????? Do I smell vote pandering? Are the colors fading or am I getting color blind? Red and blue are beginning to take on the same hue.
Adolfo Giurfa (18:55:52) :
“The funny or tragicomical fact is that these were supposed to affect third world countries and , among other purposes, to decrease the populations of those undesired negroes, indians or whomsoever is of no white skin”…
Adolfo,
I think their just insane, not racist insane!
Dave
Nick Yates (17:56:59) :
This minimum is lasting bit longer than recent minimums. Have cosmic rays also been at a ‘high’ level for longer than for other minima since 1952?
Here are several long-term records. Judge for yourself:
http://www.leif.org/research/CosmicRayFlux.png
http://www.leif.org/research/CosmicRayFlux2.png
http://www.leif.org/research/CosmicRayFlux3.png
http://www.puk.ac.za/opencms/export/PUK/html/fakulteite/natuur/nm_data/data/hermanus_e.html
http://www.puk.ac.za/opencms/export/PUK/html/fakulteite/natuur/nm_data/data/sanaenm_e.html
http://www.leif.org/research/thule-cosmic-rays.png
Sacricice a number to save them?
There’s no time to lose. Stop the discussion, place the nukes in the volcanoes, load the bombers with chemicals, roll out the CO2 sinks, and we’ll save the planet. Only then can the aliens safely land and take over the place.
Leif Svalgaard (19:53:24) :
Nick Yates (17:56:59) :
And here is the latest real-time from Thule [the red curve shows the last six months and the beginning of the downturn the last couple of months]:
http://neutronm.bartol.udel.edu//realtime/thule.html
Know what we don’t know, Leif?
We don’t know what will happnen is SC24 continues lazily.
Will the cosmic rays stay up there?
Will the solar wind continue at low levels like it is purported to have done in the Maunder?
I don’t know which is worse: Waiting impatiently for SC24 to ramp the last 2 years of waiting another X number of years to see what happens if it fails to ramp another 2 years.
Why are we so darned lucky to get stuck with an outlier cycle?
Robert Bateman (19:55:43) :
They’d probably be more likely entertaining the idea of letting loose the plagues on the cities, capping the coal mines, composting the crops & killing the cattle if it got to that stage. There’s good CO2 & bad CO2 remember? 😉
Darnit – what if the aliens need a CO2 atmosphere? They’ll have to go as well!
Another way of viewing ionising particle flux (as opposed to ground nmd stations) is in the atmosphere.
eg http://i255.photobucket.com/albums/hh133/mataraka/gcratmosphericflux.jpg
troposphere Upper panel: Murmansk region (solid curve) and Moscow region
(curve with rhombs);Lower panel: Mirny (Antarctica) 1987–2006.
I agree that no one knows. I made the same point in another post, that never got approved. Anyone who says this is coming or that is coming are really guessing. I’ll go with the odds.
@Paul C (19:17:11) :
Nicely done!
______________________________________________________________________
@Nick Yates (17:56:59) : & Robert Bateman (19:18:35) :
An additional source of cosmic ray data.
http://www.ngdc.noaa.gov/stp/SOLAR/ftpcosmicrays.html#NM
Robert Bateman (20:03:19) :
We don’t know what will happnen is SC24 continues lazily.
Will the cosmic rays stay up there?
Will the solar wind continue at low levels like it is purported to have done in the Maunder?
“Know” is a big word, but SC23/SC24 is not such an outlier, SC13/SC14 was very similar. Cosmic rays are already turning down. F10.7 is already turning up. The solar wind is now where it was in 1901-1902 [and probably during Maunder Minima as well], so we have been there before. This is not unknown, uncharted waters.
I don’t know which is worse: Waiting impatiently for SC24 to ramp the last 2 years of waiting another X number of years to see what happens if it fails to ramp another 2 years.
Why are we so darned lucky to get stuck with an outlier cycle?
@Pamela Gray (19:33:31) :
“Ethanol producers are going out of business around here. You would think that the bail-out would be targeted towards these businesses, given the constant drumbeat on capital hill regarding dirty oil and coal.”
The drumbeat is for public consumption, not an expression of what they really care about, or believe they should care about. It’s a political fulcrum they’ve fashioned to leverage money from your pocket to theirs: a tool to enrich themselves and to consolidate their power.
http://www.americanthinker.com/2008/09/barack_obama_and_the_strategy.html
Robert Bateman (20:03:19) :
We don’t know what will happnen is SC24 continues lazily.
Will the cosmic rays stay up there?
Will the solar wind continue at low levels like it is purported to have done in the Maunder?
“Know” is a big word, but SC23/SC24 is not such an outlier, SC13/SC14 was very similar. Cosmic rays are already turning down. F10.7 is already turning up. The solar wind is now where it was in 1901-1902 [and probably during Maunder Minima as well], so we have been there before. This is not unknown, uncharted waters.
Leif Svalgaard (20:01:35) :
I sincerlely hope you are not entertaining any thought of trading on the strength of that type of trend (Thule). By the time your sell or buy order got placed, you might be headed for the cleaners on the flip of a coin.
Jerry Lee, absolutely wonderful read!
F10.7 is a lazy loafer, as is the sunspot data.
Have another look at Thule longterm, or any other longterm monitor history.
The cyles turn down at the same rate they ramped up.
I don’t see any concrete evidence of that.
Look at the 70’s. Many such slight downturns did not pan out to be the downramp.
But, while we are both waiting for the big downramp paint to dry, have you wondered about the rate of ramp vs downramp for the cosmic ray data being roughly equal?
4years, Field corn is selling for $0.06/lb. We “carried over” 1.8 Billion Bushels of field corn this year.
You are just regurgitating Big Oil memes.
4years, I think we’ve found the problem. (from your link:)
The fiasco has now turned to tragedy for the people of Myanmar, which was once one of the world’s top exporters of rice.
Decades of central economic planning along with other autocratic policies have made it difficult for the regime to feed its people.
Even before the cyclone, the UN’s World Food Programme estimated that 10 percent of Myanmar’s more than 50 million people did not have enough to eat.
The cyclone, which left at least 62,000 people dead or missing, has now further imperilled the nation’s food supply because so much of the fertile delta has been turned into swampland by the storm.
The United Nations has warned that the country, where up to two million victims of the cyclone face immediate needs for food, water and shelter, could face food shortages for years to come.
“This is the rice basket of the country, and clearly damage has been done to the paddy fields,” said Richard Horsey, of the UN’s emergency relief arm.
“Some … have been inundated with salt water, others flooded and stocks of seed for planting destroyed. So it will be an issue, and there are agricultural assessments under way to determine the full extent of the problem.”
It’s Myanmar, for heaven’s sake.
Hey 4-years. I think both sides genuinely think they know best about how to make our country successful. Whether or not they are right (both or one), is yet to be played out. You mention consumption (I don’t know what you mean by public consumption). Consumption is not a bad thing. Every generation of producers hope that people will buy what they produce. Ask any small, medium or large business owner. Ask any red, blue or calico colored politician. It’s how to get to a place where producers produce and buyers buy that the roads part.
To have your road (or my road), you have to be in a place of power (or else you don’t get to be head of committees). It stinks, but whoever is in power gets to put into place their road. But to be in a place of power, you have to win votes. Politicians do everything they can to win votes. That means that they pander to the left, the right, the middle, and to people so far on the fringe that they share space with Pluto. I think that Obama did his fair share of vote pandering. Whether or not he pulls through on bedding down with his fringe is as fraught with ifs, ands, or butts as Bush’s was with the bed laid out by the neo-religious conservatives. He chose not to get into bed with them after he got their votes (not a bad thing in my opinion). I wonder if Obama will do the same thing.
But I just can’t go as far as you do in your opinions of the other side. I wouldn’t say that about Bush and his party. Did he lie? Likely. Did he break some rules? Probably. Did he abuse his power? At times. Was he at the helm when the ship was steered in a way that caused at least some of the economic woes we face? It seems that way. Sigh. So will Obama I’m guessing. However, that makes neither party some evil power-hungry entity bent on lining their own pockets. Because I may think someone is wrong, that does not equate to me thinking them evil.
What makes you hate the left so much? It reminds me of the Civil War days. Republicans were the party of the North. Liberal. Forward thinking. Focused on Federal rule over state rights. Democrats were the party of the South. Focused on returning to the days of agrarian old. States rights was sovereign. And they apparently hated each other then, even though the Democrats are now the liberals, and Republicans are now the conservatives. Given the convoluted path of both sides, and the mixing and trading of beliefs, again, why do you hate the other side so?
What makes Obama and the left evil in your eyes? And it has to be more than you just thinking he and they are wrong. I’m a teacher. If I equated wrong with being evil, I would need to find another line of work.