You may recall that I posted about how the National Snow and Ice Data Center has an issue with the DMSP satellite sensor channel used to detect sea ice. Cryosphere Today is a few days behind in update compared to NSIDC, and here is what their imagery now looks like before and after:
Above: Arctic “Insta-melt” Click for a larger image
Here is the link to reproduce the image above.
Larger “holes” are likely to open up in the arctic sea in the next couple of days as the sensor further degrades.
Here is what CT has to say as a caveat for the side by side images:
February 17, 2009 – The SSMI sensor seems to be acting up and dropping data swaths from time to time in recent days. Missing swaths will appear on these images as a missing data in the southern latitudes. If this persists for more than a few weeks, we will start to fill in these missing data swaths with the ice concentration from the previous day. Note – these missing swaths do not affect the timeseries or any other plots on the Cryosphere Today as they are comprised of moving averages of at least three days.
No mention of the issue on CT’s main page though. They are still commenting on George Will. They seem a bit out of touch on the sensor issue.
h/t to Garrett
UPDATE: 11:30PM 2/20 CT has removed the comments about George Will from the main page, but still no mention there of the satellite outage nor are they displaying imagery on the main page from 2/20/09 The most recent is 02/19/09. It will be interesting to see what tomorrow brings.
Cryosphere Today is a good proxy for the political machine that is behind AGW.
Interesting that in the face of reality, the sensors are blurred. The initial reaction of any high priest. Gives you time to plan an exit destination and strategy to avoid the lamp post.
I still look to see us go over the 1979 to 2000 mean before the end of this years ice building.
Did anyone hear from the Englishman who was going to trek to the North Pole measuring ice thickness’ this February?
“I know that somebody brought the December necklace to our attention just recently. Anybody got a picture of the necklace image at Cryosphere back in, what, December? Is it possible that we have to back to November to get a clean data set?”
I wonder if these sensors degrade slowly from day one. Does anyone know if degrading sensors ever overestimate the ice extent? It would be instructive to see a post that gave a description of the tech and operation of the sensors and an opinion on the effect and direction of data change.
In the middle of 2008 Prince Philip of Winsor said that the ecos. had until december 09 to get control or their world would come to an end. I wonder what he had in mind?
Pamela Gray,
Sorry I forgot attribution for the quote in my comment of a few minutes ago
“I know that somebody brought the December necklace to our attention just recently. Anybody got a picture of the necklace image at Cryosphere back in, what, December? Is it possible that we have to back to November to get a clean data set?” See Gary Pearse previous comment.
Anthony… just a crazy idea… Why not put up three pics… the string of pearls, the butterfly, and the sta-puft marshmallow man, and let everyone guess which two were really posted on CT??
HAHA
I had a brief email exchange with Bill Chapman (Cryosophere Today) last night about George Will and advised him that the comments were related to an article from Jan. 1. He wrote me back and said he would correct the web site if I provided him with a link.
http://www.dailytech.com/Sea+Ice+Ends+Year+at+Same+Level+as+1979/article13834.htm
It looks like he kept his word.
REPLY: Good for you Mike – Anthony
Do they use the same sensors for the Antarctic?
Mike Bryant said;
“Such a crazy world… Going on vacation to a place that’s much warmer, BECAUSE it is much warmer, And everyone is worried about a fraction of a degree warming over the last many years… Sheeeesh…”
Without even going on holiday our temperature today ranged from 36F to 54F. Thats about 1000 years of global warming.
As you say, Sheeeeeesh
TonyB
I wonder…
Unless the DMSP program has changed significantly over the years, these polar orbit satellites are “out of touch” most of the time. They downlink an ‘orbit load’ (my term) of data when they come into range of the ground receivers.
Somehow, “missing data swaths” sounds to me more like communications problems rather than “sensor drift.”
Like Dorlomin (03:24:49), I too get a kick out of reading the comments on this blog.
In the past the arctic icecap has been visited by a “halo”, a “necklace”, and a “butterfly”. Why don’t we start a contest to predict the next “object”? My first choice is a “polar bear”, with a close second choice being the outline of a “Nobel Peace Prize”.
len (08:48:06) :
…. Did anyone hear from the Englishman who was going to trek to the North Pole measuring ice thickness’ this February?
I assume you mean the Survey Team I mentioned above – if so they have arrived at Resolute – see http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/sci/tech/7897392.stm
The expedition’s website is: http://www.catlinarcticsurvey.com/
Rod Smith (10:00:59) :
I wonder…
Unless the DMSP program has changed significantly over the years, these polar orbit satellites are “out of touch” most of the time. They downlink an ‘orbit load’ (my term) of data when they come into range of the ground receivers.
Somehow, “missing data swaths” sounds to me more like communications problems rather than “sensor drift.”
Could be, but satellite sensor data is recorded on board till downloaded.
@ur momisugly Gary Pearse
I asked the same question as Antarctic ice also appears to have had a large decline in recent weeks.
From the Online Dream Dictionary:
String of Pearls=Conformity or Sameness
Halo=Supernatural Energy
Butterfly=Creativity
I guess they were tired of the sameness and in a burst of supernatural energy, they got really creative…
REPLY: VERY Doubtful. The satellite is run by DMSP. CT and NSIDC have zero control over the sensor or platform. I see steps in NSIDC graph, this looks like classic hardware failure. – Anthony
I’m going to take a wild and cynical guess by speculating that the current glitches in measuring sea ice will be remedied shortly after new distracting scenario alarms are sounded and policies are assured of passing.
We can never underestimate the ability of the bureaucracies to generate new justifications for more of the same and self preservation.
It doesn’t take black hellicopters or conspiracy meetings.
Conflicts of interests and various motivations make people and institutions get real creative
I’m glad you mentioned “Black Helicopters” and not me!
Sensors can be tweaked by manipulating bias tables that normally
result from running a calibration sequence. While they’re still in
spec, the results can vary greatly. Problems arise when they
manipulate the bias past the point of operability.
This is done all the time in SAR, where the output power is
lowered because the return pulse saturates the receiver.
With a passive sensor, the manipulation would most likely be in
the sensors receiver AGC. If the AGC is increased to the point
where the signal is lower than the receivers abilities to detect it,
you get no data.
There! I said it!
I used to look at these images daily, there have been string of pearl effects along the upper canadian border, there have been a few with holes opening in the middle of ice.. I will try and find ya a few.
I also watch the SH as well.. I think I just might be able to find ya a few there as well.
Ps.. most of the time we beat our heads against a brick wall. When we break through and win one, gloating is the natural tendency. I would love to see us not fall to their levels of behavior just because we have broken a brick out of the wall. In a way, youre shooting the messenger. 🙂
For fun I blew up the “butterfly” … that’s just wrong…That is not a natural random patch of sea….here is an enlargement of that area.
http://photoshare.shaw.ca/image/2/d/8/63987/rorschachice-0.jpg
Can you say Rorschach blot test?
Clive
Clive!
“Can you say Rorschach blot test?”
Many thanks for a hilarious moment!
WestHoustonGeo
MattN (17:50:30) wrote:
“Thing is, the article was written January 1st, not Feb 15th, and Mr Will was
comparing the END OF 2008 with the END OF 1979. Not Feb 15th of each year
(which was still a month and a half away from happening when he wrote it)”
I wonder where MattN got his info that Will wrote the article Jan 1st?
Not from the WaHoPo:
Dark Green Doomsayers
By George F. Will
Sunday, February 15, 2009; Page B07
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2009/02/13/AR2009021302514.html
“….Since September, however, the increase in sea ice has been the fastest
change, either up or down, since 1979, when satellite record-keeping began.
According to the University of Illinois’ Arctic Climate Research Center,
global sea ice levels now equal those of 1979. ….”
Even if you add 500,000 km^2 for sensor error, it still doesn’t match 1979,
but his “the increase in sea ice has been the fastest change, either up or
down, since 1979,” is close, except that late 2007 looks like an even faster
freeze up.
http://arctic.atmos.uiuc.edu/cryosphere/IMAGES/current.anom.jpg
And the fast rate of change is logical in a warming World, because the
Arctic freezes over when the sun disappears for the winter, and the more
open water, the more water will freeze, thus a faster rate of change of
percentage of area.
Can you say Rorschach blot test?
Instead of a butterfly, an alarmist might have seen a terrifying fire demon.
Bob, the article that Cryosphere linked to (before they took it down) was the Jan 1 article on Daily Tech.
http://www.dailytech.com/Sea+Ice+Ends+Year+at+Same+Level+as+1979/article13834.htm
Perhaps Mr Will was refering to that article whan he wrote his piece in the Post??
In any event, Cryosphere said Feb 15th, then reference the article from Jan 1. They were FUBAR,
from the link spoken of by Richard C. Savage, and located by Anthony, in a comment above :
http://nsidc.org/news/press/20060706_goremoviefaq.html
Ted Scambos and Walt Meier, both of the of NSIDC, are the TED and WALT in the quote. This quote is ‘copy and pasted’ from the NSIDC web site. I did not fabricate it :
“As a scientist who studies the climate, what do you think of the movie?
TED: I think An Inconvenient Truth does an excellent job of outlining the science behind global warming and the challenges society faces in the coming century because of it.
WALT: I agree. I think Gore has the basic message right. But we thought we could clarify a few things about the information concerning snow, ice, and the poles.”
Gore basically says that the full relationship is very complicated, but that the main point is carbon dioxide and temperature have always moved together. This implies that, in the past, when carbon dioxide has increased it has led directly to a warmer Earth.
However, past changes in carbon dioxide levels are at least initially an effect of abrupt climate change, not a cause.
Huh???
Sorry for any confusion. the above is later on in the http://nsidc.org/news/press/20060706_goremoviefaq.html article
Note that Jason just as it looks as sea level is going to fall is turned off for orbit change, then all has to be recalibrated…
Planned we hope with proof.
One coincidence…
Mike Bryant (11:27:20) :
From the Online Dream Dictionary:
String of Pearls=Conformity or Sameness
Halo=Supernatural Energy
Butterfly=Creativity
I guess they were tired of the sameness and in a burst of supernatural energy, they got really creative…
Well, I was really creative when first seeing the necklace on December 6. Because there is no symmetry around the pole, I proposed a large plume of steam which crystalized on the surface and whose crystals were caught by the sensors. Then I was instructed on how the images are made and saddly came to accept data errors 🙁
http://igloo.atmos.uiuc.edu/cgi-bin/test/print.sh?fm=02&fd=20&fy=2009&sm=02&sd=21&sy=2009
What can one do facing such volatile ice but declare we have a fourth phase of water? Or is it fifth?
The rift has moved to the right, thawing completely parts of the Siberian coast .
Bits of Canada, or is it Alaska? , are into this new phase, and a chunk of ice has disappeared where the snow scythe shows on the north.
It must be the weekend effect.