You may recall that I posted about how the National Snow and Ice Data Center has an issue with the DMSP satellite sensor channel used to detect sea ice. Cryosphere Today is a few days behind in update compared to NSIDC, and here is what their imagery now looks like before and after:
Above: Arctic “Insta-melt” Click for a larger image
Here is the link to reproduce the image above.
Larger “holes” are likely to open up in the arctic sea in the next couple of days as the sensor further degrades.
Here is what CT has to say as a caveat for the side by side images:
February 17, 2009 – The SSMI sensor seems to be acting up and dropping data swaths from time to time in recent days. Missing swaths will appear on these images as a missing data in the southern latitudes. If this persists for more than a few weeks, we will start to fill in these missing data swaths with the ice concentration from the previous day. Note – these missing swaths do not affect the timeseries or any other plots on the Cryosphere Today as they are comprised of moving averages of at least three days.
No mention of the issue on CT’s main page though. They are still commenting on George Will. They seem a bit out of touch on the sensor issue.
h/t to Garrett
UPDATE: 11:30PM 2/20 CT has removed the comments about George Will from the main page, but still no mention there of the satellite outage nor are they displaying imagery on the main page from 2/20/09 The most recent is 02/19/09. It will be interesting to see what tomorrow brings.
Mike D. (21:14:51) :
“Are there any Greenpeacers headed to the “butterfly” with their kayaks yet?”
No, no, no…it’s not a butterfly…it’s MOTHRA!
Are comments no longer posted ‘waiting for moderation’ ? I made a post at 06:06
PDT, and it was not posted. I tried to post it a second time and received a message that it was a duplicate message. Thus, 33 minutes later I am posting this to inquire re: the change, and to see if it is also not immediately shown as ‘waiting…’
[Reply: Sometimes there is no moderation for an hour or two, usually late at night or early a.m. I also rescued two of your comments from the spam bucket and posted them. ~dbstealey, mod.]
In light of my comment of 06:06 not showing up as ‘awaiting moderation’, yet my comment of 06:39 does show up, I am duplicating my 06:06 post below. Sorry if it shows up twice, but I can’t get back for several hours.
anna v & pamela gray: here is the necklace 12/6 with 12/5/08. Not only the necklace appears, but there is massive ice loss overnight just south of the necklace and north of the river Ob’s outlet.
http://i37.tinypic.com/33ejz4p.jpg
This brings back the spurious ice loss I looked at 12/08 regarding shoreline change from the old maps having no snow to the modern addition of snow, which impinged on the sea area. This means that the maximum ice extent can never be reached again, comparing modern ice to old, since the baseline is based in the past.
http://i44.tinypic.com/330u63t.jpg
Thanks for doing an article on this Anthony! 🙂
19 02 2009
vukcevic (14:25:32) :
on The heliospheric current sheet as solar cycle proxy
…………
Who knows, SC24 might make hero of Dr. Hathaway, if that is case, I will whistle in the wind, and try to prove that Beaufort gyre is run by the sunspot cycle;
………….
What a coincidence, only one day after Anthony shows us that Cryosphere Today has ‘melted’ most of the ice above it.
In the pro-Inconvenient Truth dialogue with Walt Meier and Ted Scambos over at the NSIDC site linked above, Scambos makes the following remark: “It’s true that every glacierized region on Earth is experiencing retreat and thinning.”
We know perfectly well that the glaciers at the center of Antarctica and Greenland are growing. Alaska’s glaciers have grown recently, as have many in Norway.
Anyone have enough pull with these gentlemen to request a retraction on this inaccurate (and fear-inducing) statement?
“11:30PM 2/20 CT has removed the comments about George Will from the main page, but still no mention there of the satellite outage nor are they displaying imagery on the main page from 2/20/09 The most recent is 02/19/09. It will be interesting to see what tomorrow brings.”
They had a massive amount of nerve to criticize George Will when their data was completely screwed up…
Did anyone else find it interesting that in the Bloomberg article they credited ‘readers’ with noticing and notifying NSIDC of the error. They conveniently left off which ‘readers’ found the error… Subtle, yet interesting. AFAIK the ‘readers’ were WUWT. Oh well, it fits the meme of the MSM to never credit skeptics for anything.
Smokey, that interview was back in 06. Maybe what can be said about Walt now is that the recent lesson at the hands of Anthony (done with a kind hand I might add) and resultant return to paying attention to the data instead of political activities seems an improvement of Walt’s daily activities and responsibilities. At the very least, this episode should remind scientists of the ever present danger of bias.
OT here, only FYI:
Austria, Germany, Switzerland, Italy, Scotland still getting their share of the white stuff.
http://icecap.us/images/uploads/Snow_In_Europe.pdf
Glenn (17:48:35) :
Funny name, algorithm. Many people probably do not really know what that means.
Algorithm – formula or procedure for solving a mathematical problem, from algebra (al-juh-bruh), comes from the Arabic word al-jabru = restoration , after mathematician Al-Khwarizmy who worked at the royal court in Baghdad (780 to 850 AD).
A number of weeks ago, seems like December, there was a comment on a post in which the poster noted a huge segment of ice in southern latitudes had vanished overnight. The Cryosphere image showed a nearly straight line longitudinal open sea area where before there was ice (in the Atlantic, I think). Next day or two the ice had ‘reformed’. I am thinking that might have been early evidence of the sensor/algorithm degradation.
Anthony, could you have a look at this article “Watching Greenland Melt” in Open Salon, and comment, on your site?
The dogs photo certainly makes a cute background wallpaper, better than that ole polar bear!
Thanks
Until the interview is edited or pulled down, it will continue to frighten and misinform visitors to the site (which is largely funded by taxpayers).
To Charles Garner: You are probably correct. Since this data is from a polar orbiting satellite, many “swaths” are stitched together to make the final product. As Pamela Gery pointed out, it looked like a “string of pearls”. In the Feb 20th image above, you can see two such strings. If somebody can ID that day/image, I’ll use it here. I went looking for it last night and could not find it – Anthony
Chaiten has erupted again!
Charles. I’m a huge fan and and enjoy the manner in which you delicately rein in the boorish strayings. As an old lady who cherishes traditional values and particularly appreciates the refinements of polite discourse, I’d like to make a case for the use of the word ‘religion’ in some of the comments.
Dictionary.com lists one of the meanings of religion as follows:
6. something one believes in and follows devotedly; a point or matter of ethics or conscience: to make a religion of fighting prejudice.
Keep up the great work.
Reply: The concept of religion or the word religion in and of itself is not negative or objectionable; however, the usual context in these debates is to insult the other side by an accusation it of blind faith and abandonment of reason. That is why it is discouraged by either side in order to keep the debates civil. Also a reminder: religious debates or “who’s God is it” topics are strictly prohibited. ~ charles the moderator.
Anthony… see the comment here: Steve Keohane (06:43:11) :
And here:
anna v (00:44:28) :
Pamela Gray (21:24:21) :
The necklace is still there if you put the December 6 choice. I had written and asked then but got no answer.
It is in a different part of the map.
http://igloo.atmos.uiuc.edu/cgi-bin/test/print.sh?fm=12&fd=06&fy=2008&sm=02&sd=20&sy=2009
This one has both butterfly and string of pearls
Not read all responses. I am a naive lay observer. There obviously has to be a standard method to measure sea ice–just like there (supposedly) is a standard way to measure temps in a Stephenson screen. (i.e. the sea ice needs to be always measured with the same yard stick.)
But golly gee…the sun is shining once again up there. Surely someone is flying airplanes over these areas again and has a Kodak Brownie and could…..er..well….gosh take a picture and actually look to see what’s up with that pesky sea ice.
Maybe it is so cold they can’t fly. ☺
Clive
As I’ve read through these comments, I have found numerous problems discussed with both NSIDC and CT. I’m off to Jamaica so can’t do it but does anyone here have time to itemize these many problems?
Mike…
I hope I can find internet on the boat… no vacation without WUWT…
“Harold Ambler (07:05:35) :
In the pro-Inconvenient Truth dialogue with Walt Meier and Ted Scambos over at the NSIDC site linked above, Scambos makes the following remark: “It’s true that every glacierized region on Earth is experiencing retreat and thinning.”
We know perfectly well that the glaciers at the center of Antarctica and Greenland are growing. Alaska’s glaciers have grown recently, as have many in Norway.
Anyone have enough pull with these gentlemen to request a retraction on this inaccurate (and fear-inducing) statement?”
Growing Glaciers:
http://www.iceagenow.com/Growing_Glaciers.htm
For German readers, here’s an interview with Director Prof. Heinrich Müller of the Alfred Wegener Institut and the new Antarctic Research Facility – Neumayr III.
http://klimakatastrophe.wordpress.com/2009/02/21/ein-polarforscher-zum-klimawandel/
Main statements in summary:
1. Over the last 28 years, slight cooling of the region of their station 70’30″S 8°11′ W.
2. Does not expect any significant sea level rise in the next 100 years even with warming – as ice would simply transfer from Arctic to Antarctic.
3. Doesn’t expect methane coming from thawing permafrost to play much of a role in the future, as it never did during past Optimums.
4. Says there’s both a manmade and a natural component to current climate change. Did elaborate on what ratio.
5. Doesn’t think climate change is a big challenge for humans – they’ve always adapted in the past.
6. Says current models do not allow any conclusions to be drawn.
During the interview one hears NO alarmist catastrophic statements from him. Nothing. The interviewers kept trying to get him to make catastrophic predictions, but Prof. MÜller left them standing there empty-handed.
4. …did not elaborate…
Such a crazy world… Going on vacation to a place that’s much warmer, BECAUSE it is much warmer, And everyone is worried about a fraction of a degree warming over the last many years… Sheeeesh…
Whatever the current problems are why now?
What’s going on?
We have sweeping government policies including cap and trade or carbon taxes about to be adopted and at the same time
seas ice is approaching the 1979-current average and all of a sudden the reliability and credibility of the measurement is conveniently degraded.
REPLY: VERY Doubtful. The satellite is run by DMSP. CT and NSIDC have zero control over the sensor or platform. I see steps in NSIDC graph, this looks like classic hardware failure. – Anthony
I’m going to take a wild and cynical guess by speculating that the current glitches in measuring sea ice will be remedied shortly after new distracting scenario alarms are sounded and policies are assured of passing.
We can never underestimate the ability of the bureaucracies to generate new justifications for more of the same and self preservation.
It doesn’t take black hellicopters or conspiracy meetings.
Conflicts of interests and various motivations make people and institutions get real creative.