First this news: The Ap Index continues to fall. While the January 2009 data is not out yet, the December 2008 data is and is an Ap value of 2 according to SWPC. While this number may be lower than other sources (Leif will fill us in I’m sure), I’m plotting it for consistency since I’ve been following the SWPC data set for well over a year now.
I’ve pointed out several times the incident of the abrupt and sustained lowering of the Ap Index which occurred in October 2005. The sun has been running at a lower plateau of the Ap index after that event and has not recovered. It is an anomaly worth investigating.
From the data provided by NOAA’s Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC) you can see just how little Ap magnetic activity there has been since. Here’s a graph from December 2008 showing the step in October 2005:
Additionally David Archibald writes with a new idea on how to use the Ap Index to predict the maximum amplitude. See below.
In late January, I contributed a post predicting that the Ap Index would have a minimum of 3 in late 2009. There is a good correlation between the aa Index at minimum and the amplitude of the following solar cycle. This also holds for the Ap Index:
The Ap prediction results in a prediction of maximum amplitude for Solar Cycle 24 of 25. This would be the lowest result since the late 17th century.
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Slightly OT,;-)
Dr Lief Svalgaard,
the correlation I was referring to was from a paper by Texan geologist Gregory Benson in an historical context. Cannot find the link at the moment at was a few years ago now but will endeavour to hunt it down over the next few days. Perhaps because of the reference to solar correlation the paper has been removed if it was challenged.
Lee Kington,
Thanks for the links, it’s fascinating watching time go by before ones very own eyes. Thanks once again.
How about an open discussion on this site between Leif Svalgaard & David C Archibald? The DCA paper on cycles 24 & 25 is still on the UK Treasury department’s website + others!
AtB
We have the Ap index and Sunspot number [with good calibration] back to the 1840s. Here http://www.leif.org/research/Sunspot%20Number%20at%20Maximum%20Following%20Ap%20at%20Minimum.png is a plot of Rmax [dark-blue open circles] at the solar max following the year where Ap is minimum [about 6 months after sunspot ‘minimum’] and of Ap at that point [pink curve]. There is a well-known correlation as shown. Both a power-law and a linear relation is shown. There is not much difference [the power-law marginally better]. The blue diamonds show the calculated Rmax for the power-law and the red circles for the linear relation. they both match the observed values as well as their R2 values say that they should. Note that the right-most point is a prediction of cycle 24. Since we don’t know what Ap will be for this minimum I have guessed [based on assuming that the values for the past several months will stay where they are] that Ap = 4 for this transition. The predicted value of Rmax with this guess for Apmin is thus 75+/-10 in good agreement with what the polar field precursor technique gives [ http://www.leif.org/research/Cycle%2024%20Smallest%20100%20years.pdf ]. Back at the deep minimum in 1901, Ap was 4.1 so 4 seems a reasonable choice. Keep in mind that the SWPC-NOAA values for recent Ap are just plain wrong [too low].
While Rmax=75 is low [as we said in 2004: the lowest in a hundred years], we are not in unknown territory and not at Dalton minimum levels.
Anthony looking back at 1998 ,la nina year ,wasn’t there a lot of sunspots?I’m asking because it seems that high sunspot activity and warmer temps seem to go hand and hand with each other.Since the sun seems to be asleep global temps have been trending downward and from what i’ve been reading will continue for many years.Can’t wait to see the egg on the global warming crowd.
I applaud David Archibald’s attempt to use the science to help make a predictor models and I feel his scope is right on. If we can figure out smaller indicators that can predict a few months out – that’s a huge accomplishment. We’ve probably all seen predictions and models on the web or in the headlines showing the next 10 years, 100 years and 1,000 years that fall outside 95% confidence levels in the first 5 years… If David is willing to get out there with small steps, it may help us understand the larger picture someday. It’s not easy to publish predictions, you risk both ridicule and, apparently, a guy named DJ!
This solar activity falls into the predictions of Rhoades Fairbridge and the 178 year Jose cycle. The sun has entered the retrograde motion around its barycenter. According to Fairbridge we should be entering a period of cold. According to Fairbridge during the beginning of this cycle we should see increased volcanism and earthquakes.
Any comments?
The truth about the Australian wild fires is way too inconvenient for DJ…
Is there a relationship between the recent intense SSW event and the Ap?
One thing stand out from the usual icecap.us garbage, he staes that Another large La Nina formed in late 2008.
By all definitions used there has been no La Nina late 2008 let alone a sensationalistic ‘large La Nina’. This is why his work would never be taken seriously by peer review, it’s just a collection of innacuracies and speculative hogwash. He hasn’t taken into account that temperatures are recovering after the strong La Nina in EARLY 2008 at all. he didn’t even give us the benefit of a good belly laugh by implying that lack of sun spots will cause the temperatures to drop further (even though temperatures are know rising dispite a prolonged solar minimum!)
ENSO and a quiet Sun have not yet been linked with a connecting mechanism. Because I get up before the Sun rises, does not make the Sun rise. There are many, many, many such correlations and cycles in the Universe. Many times, these various cycles can be in sync, and stay that way during more than one generation, giving us the impression that they are linked in a cause and effect fashion. But without a testable mechanism, it is best not leaving sacrifices at my door encouraging me to make the Sun rise.
So DJ, did you assume that David thinks there is a Sun-global temperature mechanism when you referred to his temperature prediction? He may entertain such a notion but the graphs you linked to all seem to have to do with oceanic cycles and temperature. Did I miss where he correlated his predicted temperature fall to something other than these Earth bound oceanic cycles in your link?
We are looking for a mechanism that links the sun to a mechanism influencing earth’s climate and other external factors like the sudden heating of the Troposphere over the Arctic last January causing a rise in temperature of 50 degrees, changing the weather systems.
The AP magnetic index and it’s effects are in need of further study.
So is the the link between our sun and volcanic activity which is mentioned a recent article from Joe Bastardi:
According to Joe Bastardi the “Barbarian” (cold period) has arrived at the gate!
In this article he explains that the Barbarian comes with a “triple crown” of cooling:
1) Natural cyclical reversal
This mechanism is well understood and monitored (PDO/AMO/ENSO)
2) Solar radiation reduction
Controversy between Leif Svalgaard versus David Achibald and Svensmark!
3) Increased volcanic activity
We know there was significant volcanic activity during the Maunder and Dalton Minimum. The question is was it a coincidence or is it part of a mechanism?
“Decreased solar radiation leads to more cosmic dust, which in turn has an effect of increasing the speed of the Earth’s rotation, creating a negative global atmospheric angular momentum. Take a look at what is going on with that. http://www.cdc.noaa.gov/map/images/aam/glaam.gif Notice how negative it has been during this time of reduced radiation.
The increased speed of rotation forces cooling at the poles, but there is something else that happens. Chances are this creates an increased stress on the earth, meaning more volcanic activity”.
He also refers to historic evidence referring to a Danish report:
Conclusion: 70- to 90-year oscillations in global mean temperature are correlated with corresponding oscillations in solar activity.
http://www.tmgnow.com/repository/solar/lassen1.html
The complete article can be viewed here:
http://www.accuweather.com/ukie/bastardi-europe-blog.asp?partner=accuweather
Anyhow, we never have been in a better position to observe what forces and mechanisms trigger the change.
We are in the first row seats this time to make life observations.
So poor in the opinions and for once leave out the “dead horse” (thanks Smokey) of CO2 being a climate driver.
vukcevic (03:08:36) :
nobwainer (Geoff Sharp) (02:42:30) :
vukcevic (01:51:18) :
over the last 40 years, strength of the polar fields has been steadily declining;
Since the correlation appears to be so strong, and it is directly referring to J & S orbital properties,
http://www.vukcevic.co.uk/PolarField.gif
I assume it could be only one of the following two:
a) Direct response to the rotating vector sum of the J & S magnetic fields. The resultant vector changes its orientation according to the combined heliocentric longitude of two planets (due to the Sun’s and J & S equatorial planes inclinations).
Hi Vukcevic, good to see you’ve picked up on this idea of Ray Tomes which I resurrected on SC24.com
The maximal effects should occur when conjunctions/oppositions are 45 degrees round the plane of invariance from the nodes indicating the tilt of the sun’s axis.
Back on topic, I am still in love with this quiet Sun! It’s like watching a baby sleep, something a woman does with much pleasure. It is a very beautiful sight to me when the Sun is so sleepy. The even pattern of it’s softly roiling surface makes me wish I could get a closer look.
Smokey (04:07:17) :
DJ,
“I am not familiar with your reference to Inuits “whose houses are disappearing into the Arctic Ocean”, but based on your other opinions, I’ll take that one with a grain of salt, too”.
Smokey,
This is a very well documented story.
It was part of Gore’s presentation as solid proof evidence for AGW.
It was debunked.
When the ice melted, the waves had free play and erosion undermined the foundations of some of the houses.
They never should have build on that site.
To be more accurate arsonists were partly responsible, as is the policy of firebreaks. However for this event to have occured the right conditions had to be in place, such as high winds, record high temperatures and prolonged drought conditions. I direct you to this story from July 2008 of scientists warning of the increased possibilty of drought and heatwaves. http://www.guardian.co.uk/environment/2008/jul/07/climatechange.drought
Australia has seen some extremes lately, concurrent with the extraordinary heatwave in the south is flooding in the north, 60% of the state of Queensland has been declared an emergence zone due to floods. In recent years Tasmania has seen record high and low temperatures.
The tragic bushfires cannot be seen as proof of AGW but they can be seen to be part of an increasingly strong case for AGW.
Mary Hinge (07:10:44) :
for this event to have occured the right conditions had to be in place, such as high winds, record high temperatures and prolonged drought conditions.
Utter utter rubbish. How did the 3 other equally big fires in Victoria earlier this century come to pass if ‘record temperatures’ have to be in place? Or are you admitting the temperature record is as badly cooked as Victoria?
Stop backing up your bull with other peoples misery and loss.
Some what OT, but i have traded commodity futures for 33 years. Creating a future pricing model is the bread and butter of “technical analysis”. Modelers create model v 1.0. Test it against historical prices. And enter the market, confident that their model will generate enormous profits. The models are excellent at predicting past prices, as they are fitted to historical data. Unfortunately it is impossible to profit by accurately predicting the past. When the model fails, which they inevitably do, the modeler, undeterred, creates a new version, incorporating the old model, plus new factor x, which yields model v 2.0. This happens time and time again. IMHO, modeling chaotic events, i.e. prices or temperatures, is a fools errand.
Mary Hinge said;
“In recent years Tasmania has seen record high and low temperatures”
Can you please confirm which stations in Tasmania you are referring to and the years involved?
tonyB
“has probably been due to greenhouse gases”
“opinion is divided on whether it can be attributed to climate change.”
“Australia’s agriculture minister, Tony Burke, described the report as alarming and said: “Parts of these high-level projections read more like a disaster novel than a scientific report” ”
The bushfires can also be seen as a natural occurence, aggrevated by poor forestry practices & the activities of arsonists.
BTW. AMO for jan. -.007. First negative since 2002, and first concurrent negative AMO and ONI since Jan. 2001.
DJ (03:04:58) :…….unquotable. This is an offense to the human kind! Using for their own benefit the other peoples´suffering it is really shameful. No words..
So if I read the tea leaves right, the sun has decided to put on a display just when we have the right instruments in place to observe — In ways mankind has never been able to do before. The net of that is we can advance our understanding of our solar system and it’s influence on Earth … If the temperature results over the next decades match the solar predictions, then the AGW tax hoaxers can go find a rock and climb under it. If not, then we are back to “we don’t know”.
The good news is real science is in play once again. And it’s now getting really interesting to see. I sure hope it stays out in the open where lay people can see, observe and yes, maybe even toss their pebble in the pond every now and then.
Anyone who thinks the fires in Australia are unusual should peruse the fire history of Ontario, Alaska, the Pacific Northwest, or the Great Lakes-NY axis.
Huge fires regularly burned in those regions long before industrialization and killed thousands and thousands of people.
The American Plains burned from Canada to Texas once every decade – usually in just a few days.
You need fuel for a fire – without it – nothing will occur. How that fuel accumulates over time AND then how it comes to burn on a given date is the real story. A wet, strong set of growing seasons is needed to accumulate the fuel – and a return to dry or a drought, then a few days with dry humidities is what is needed.
tarpon (07:54:14) :
The good news is real science is in play once again.
IMHO, the vast majority of posts on this topic have promoted pseudo-science of the worst kind.
Flanagan (06:00:13) : said
“Smokey: please check the following link, it’s data from the South Pacific Sea Level and Climate Monitoring Project
http://www.bom.gov.au/ntc/IDO60024/IDO60024.2006.pdf”
Flanagan, I’m not sure you’ve read the whole report in which there are many falls as well as rises. They specfically say that not too much should be read into the figures as the time scales are too short to obtain any meaningful data
Also satellite altimetry is (reasonably) accurate to a few centimetres in deep water but known to be inaccurate in shallow waters. (which I can vouch for from my own involvement in this field) The inaccuracy can be many times the actual measurement being recorded.
TonyB
Wally (04:23:37) :
What about February?