First this news: The Ap Index continues to fall. While the January 2009 data is not out yet, the December 2008 data is and is an Ap value of 2 according to SWPC. While this number may be lower than other sources (Leif will fill us in I’m sure), I’m plotting it for consistency since I’ve been following the SWPC data set for well over a year now.
I’ve pointed out several times the incident of the abrupt and sustained lowering of the Ap Index which occurred in October 2005. The sun has been running at a lower plateau of the Ap index after that event and has not recovered. It is an anomaly worth investigating.
From the data provided by NOAA’s Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC) you can see just how little Ap magnetic activity there has been since. Here’s a graph from December 2008 showing the step in October 2005:
Additionally David Archibald writes with a new idea on how to use the Ap Index to predict the maximum amplitude. See below.
In late January, I contributed a post predicting that the Ap Index would have a minimum of 3 in late 2009. There is a good correlation between the aa Index at minimum and the amplitude of the following solar cycle. This also holds for the Ap Index:
The Ap prediction results in a prediction of maximum amplitude for Solar Cycle 24 of 25. This would be the lowest result since the late 17th century.
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Is this not all caused by the amount of AWG and CO2 that is projected to be released into the atmosphere by 2050? Isn’t that the scientific consensus? 😉
DJ,
I’m sorry, but as an Australian I do take exception to your implied comment that global warming, climate change or whatever euphemism you want to use was responsible for the Victorian bushfires and hence the horrible deaths of these poor people.
Thanks to an “enviromentally friendly” policy of no backburning or hazard reduction, there was years and years of fuel all piled up and ready to burn. People are forbidden, under threat of onerous fines ($420,000 in one case), from clearing their property of trees.
Global warming or not, if proper bush management was performed there would not have been the extreme fuel load ready to burn.
DJ, the fires in Australia are nothing to do with AGW. They are to do with inept green land management practices which have prevented land clearing, the construction of fire breaks, or precautionary burns during the cool season. Adducing those deaths to support your pet theory of climate is unsavoury shroud waving and you should desist.
Please also point out where the Inuit are losing houses. In your head probably.
Reply to DJ
With respect, the episodes you highlight do not in themselves hold any credence for the AGW theory. – which is (please forgive me if I’m wrong) the point you’re trying to put across.
Perhaps you’d be better off linking us to these peer reviewed works, so we can investigate and make our own minds up, rather than post details and examples of natural disasters, of which 1 has been shown to be partly down to the work of arsonists.
http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20090213/ap_on_re_au_an/as_australia_wildfires
..which had nothing whatsoever to do with global warming and everything to do with capitulating to greenie idiots who insist on preventing by any means the proper management of Eucalypt bushland that is very well known to be prone to fire, something even Germaine Greer knows about. See also Miranda Devine’s piece in the SMH
So please spare me the pose about you caring about why those Aussies died because every natural tragedy it appears has been used as grist to keep the global warming hysteria going. You don’t care – you just want justification for your bizarre and unscientific belief system.
King Tides are natural phenomena and the tide gauge there shows virtually no sea level rise in 30 years. The real problem in Tuvalu is population pressure and overextraction of groundwater- nothing at all to do with sea levels.
This is the most objectionable part about green ideology – the willingness to dance on other people’s graves and take some sort of perverted pleasure exploiting the misery of others to make misleading and unscientific claims about the state of the world.
@DJ (03:04:58) :
“Its very easy to being a …… when no responsibility sits with you…”
DJ, this phrase cut’s both ways
DJ,
I know something about Tuvalu, Vanuatu and Kiribati. None of these atolls are experiencing anything out of the ordinary. The sea level is not rising. If it were, it would be front page, above the fold news for these atolls, many of which have an average elevation of only two meters above sea level.
And the Australian bush fires were set by arsonists. The Australian government bears the responsibility for its insane policy of requiring residents to avoid fire breaks around their property.
I am not familiar with your reference to Inuits “whose houses are disappearing into the Arctic Ocean”, but based on your other opinions, I’ll take that one with a grain of salt, too.
“DJ (23:06:27) :
Here is David’s prediction for global warming in the next 5 months – http://icecap.us/images/uploads/oftheMay2009UAHMSUGlobalTemperatureResult12thJanuary2009.pdf.
This forecast WILL be a spectacular failure.
Excuse me if I have difficulty taking his work seriously.”
RESPONSE;
I do not think the fall in UAH temperatures is going to be as large as David, but my (admittedly amateur) model does show some cooling over the next six months. It did correctly predict the small uptick in january. It appears he puts a lot of stock in the ocean temperature cycles which do dominate short term trends in global temperature. The only thing with more dominance short term is large volcanic eruptions.
The very same restrictions that led to the Bush fires in Australia have been at work in the Forests of the US. For 2 decades, the Forest Service has been prevented from managing the National Forests by a group of alleged ‘environmentalists’ that nobody has ever met.
This would be an evironmental lawsuit/management problem.
But, of course, the fires are blamed on Global Warming.
So, here I sit, with 2 weeks of snow storms backed up all the way to Japan by Global Warming caused by a failure of SC24.
DJ Unfortunately for you Archibalds predictions are becoming reality (re sunspots cycle 24) compared to your mate Hathaway (NASA) who has been way off everytime and keeps modifying every two months or so. Its guys like you who really are helping the skeptic cause. Thank you BTW.
Wolfgang K. (02:18:55) :
I like simple modeling approaches. ………..
Simple modeling is fine as long as it is backed up by natural causes.
This (see the links) may not be simplest but all the numbers are well known astronomical values.
http://www.vukcevic.co.uk/combined.gif
based on
http://www.vukcevic.co.uk/PolarField.gif
with 3.5-4 year shift (cycle rise time)
http://www.vukcevic.co.uk
vukcevic (03:18:45) :
It is interesting that Cliverd et al and now yourself use mathematical models to come a very similar outcome as to what the angular momentum graphs tell us. When we have different streams of science correlating together its time to prick your ears up….and we can also throw Usokin and Solanki into the equation.
DJ. The comment on Tuvalu was poorly researched. What you’re doing is simply repeating things you’ve heard – without finding out for yourself. Go and read up, then come back on here. You’re about to be surprised, shocked even: “A tide gauge to measure sea level has been in existence at Tuvalu since 1977, run by the University of Hawaii It showed a negligible increase of only 0.07 mm per year over two decades. It fell three millimeters between 1995 and 1999.”
http://nzclimatescience.net/index.php?option=com_content&task=view&id=14&Itemid=1
Archibald’s extrapolation is interesting and may have some merit. Certainly worth discussing. However, it extrapolates far from the known into the unknown — without consideration of the actual physical phenomenon. So, I won’t be surprised if its off the mark. I guess we’ll see.
*sniff sniff*….smells like fresh troll to me.
In fact, maybe not so fresh. Wasn’t there a lengthy and lively discussion regarding Tuvalu recently here on WUWT?
Come in, throw a few absurd statements around, watch everything ignite…say…that’s kind of asronistic, isn’t it?
Just sayin…
JimB
Archibald’s predictions made at the International Conference on Climate Change in March 2008 have been remarkably on target. The sun is in a funk — virtually no geomagnetic index and only rare sun spots for Solar Cycle 24. 2007 & 2008 showed significant global cooling. Arctic and Antarctic ice sheets at record levels for the satellite era. The empirical and historical data strongly suggest that we are heading toward a grand minimum. Svensmark will be vindicated. If cooling continues, the Earth is heading for a disaster — inadequate energy policies and many food exporting countries will become food importers = mass starvation. The USA, European, and Australian governments have their heads buried in the ground. The Russians believe their solar scientists — they are already using energy as a weapon. I am glad that I live in a warm climate.
tallbloke (03:35:39) :
Nice graphic Geoff, it looks like Theodor had a better handle on SC24 back then than Hathaway does now…
It may seem strange but both Landscheit and Hathaway both predict a weak SC25. I personally think they might have missed it by one cycle, but time will tell as SC24 could well be the instigator. Lots of predictions and reputations on the line right now, just loving it 🙂
To be honest, an increase in global temperature by as much as 1.5 degrees would be preferable to a drop in global temperature by any measurable level.
DJ.. don’t know who you are, but the tone of your comments is rather antagonistic to say the least! It does mean that I do not give your views as much credence as they might deserve.
I am making the comment to let you know the impression you give to a neutral observer. It is an unfortunate one.
OT, so mods delete if too annoying.
My favorite thing on this site is the Artic Sea Ice extent daily map. But I have this nagging suspicion that parts of it are fake. Call me naive, but . . . early June the sea ice extent for 06, 08, and 02 made near identical “jump and dive”s within days of each other.
I don’t believe that. I’m not scientific. I’m skeptical. You can see other artifacts like that if you stare.
So, I will be intensely skeptical if this week 2009 makes a further dip and sudden jump like 2008 did, about this time last year.
DJ’s remarks border on immoral…I have lived on Mt Dandenong Victoria in the past for 15 years during the Ash Wednesday fires and others….its probably the most wildfire prone area’s on the planet. Its a natural cycle here in Oz, but some of us get off the mountain when its gets over 40 deg C.
Having followed the sun’s lack of activity and the delay in SC24. It would appear that we are in for a few cool years. I see on reason to think it to be unusual in that it is all with in the natural variability observed in recorded history. Yes we have new ways of measuring the min/max but history tells us that it isn’t unheard of. We have had maxima and warming and we have had minima and cooling. We also have had idiots refusing to let people protect their property before also. I only hope that some good will come of the disaster in Aussie land.
Now is a good time to study the effects of the sun on the climate as we are entering a very different event than we have had the ability to observe with the better instrumentation now available. Perhaps we shall learn more about the drivers of our climate and be better able to adapt to our climate than any time in the past.
Very good article Anthony, now is the time to push for better scientific investigation of our solar system and it’s possible effect on our planet.
Bill Derryberry
Off-topic but interesting. Excerpt:
“Rutu Dave presents herself as one of five people who wrote the first draft of the most recent IPCC Summary for Policymakers. Revealingly, more than once, she calls it the IPCC Summary OF Policymakers!
She talks about the problems trying to get the Summary approved in four days with language barriers, etc. She said the Chinese “just don’t seem to shut up” and mentions “little tricks” to move things along.”
Dr. Richard Lindzen of MIT has written on the dishonest process of producing the flawed IPCC SPM’s. Richard is a brilliant man. I think he would be further shocked to learn how the SPM process was manipulated by such airheads.
**************************************
http://tomnelson.blogspot.com/2009/02/very-revealing-talk-by-ipcc-rutu-dave.html
Thursday, February 12, 2009
Very revealing talk by the IPCC’s Rutu Dave
Update 2: A related interview with Dave is here (translated from Dutch):
You were only twenty-six when you institute an internationally renowned as the IPCC started working. How did you go?
“The IPCC was a floor above the department where I worked in the National Institute for Health and Environment (RIVM) in Bilthoven. My former boss was working at the IPCC and there was a vacancy, so he asked if I wanted to.”
…
Dave is at the World Bank carbon finance specialist, say specialist finance and carbon dioxide emissions trading. Her expertise is CO2 emissions and emissions trading.
…
Dave travels with folders full of figures and tables for developing countries ministers and mayors to show how much money they can earn emissions trading.
Update 1: That was fast. The videos are no longer publicly available.
There was briefly a “part 3” video, where Dave admits that she was “thrown in” to her IPCC job; her focus had been “trade policy”. To learn about climate, she read some books on a train.
—-
I’d be surprised if these two Rutu Dave videos (below) are still publicly available in six months.
Early on, she mentions that she was not the smartest student in her class, and suggests that the “lot of cute guys that were there in suits” made Model UN meetings interesting.
There’s no indication whatsoever that she knows anything useful about climate science; she praises Al Gore. She’s obviously quite proud of the Nobel Peace Prize that “she” got.
Rutu Dave presents herself as one of five people who wrote the first draft of the most recent IPCC Summary for Policymakers. Revealingly, more than once, she calls it the IPCC Summary OF Policymakers!
She talks about the problems trying to get the Summary approved in four days with language barriers, etc. She said the Chinese “just don’t seem to shut up” and mentions “little tricks” to move things along.
She talks proudly about the IPCC getting “more famous” after Gore’s propaganda movie came out, with media attention from all over. She said she had her choice of going to Bali or to Oslo (for the Nobel ceremony), she chose Bali (mentioning the beaches). She said she’d have chosen Oslo had she known Brad Pitt would be there. Also, someone she knows actually met Uma Thurman!!
Now Rutu Dave works for the World Bank; several times, she says that they are trying to help their clients “make money from climate change”.
YouTube – Rutu Dave as guest speaker at the ISSE
She received her Bachelors degree in Environmental Sciences from the University of East Anglia (UK) in 2000. She was awarded her Masters degree by Wageningen University (Netherlands) in 2002.
YouTube – Rutu Dave speaking about her work with the IPCC. Part 2
Posted by Tom at 7:12 AM
PEER REVIEW – A CHARADE:
Excerpt:
“Only 8% members of the Scientific Research Society agreed that “peer review works well as it is.” (Chubin and Hackett, 1990; p.192)…
Horrobin concludes that peer review “is a non-validated charade whose processes generate results little better than does chance.” (Horrobin, 2001). This has been statistically proven and reported by an increasing number of journal editors.”
Allan says:
Does the 8% who support the status quo on peer review includes Mann and the Hockey Team? Some of us knew that Mann’s hockey stick was broken from the moment it was published – the elimination of the Medieval Warm Period and the Little Ice Age from the historic record was a bold lie. The hockey stick was very effectively used by the IPCC to promote hysteria about alleged catastrophic global warming. The Mann hockey stick falsehood is now about ten years old, and for about ten years the word has been COOLING.
Repeating, for Climate Dyslexics – EARTH IS COOLING, NOT WARMING.
Regards, Allan
********
from CCNet: INVITATION TO A SYMPOSIUM ON PEER REVIEW
ISPR/KGCM 2009 Organizing committee
Only 8% members of the Scientific Research Society agreed that “peer review works well as it is.” (Chubin and Hackett, 1990; p.192).
“A recent U.S. Supreme Court decision and an analysis of the peer review system substantiate complaints about this fundamental aspect of scientific research.” (Horrobin, 2001).
Horrobin concludes that peer review “is a non-validated charade whose processes generate results little better than does chance.” (Horrobin, 2001). This has been statistically proven and reported by an increasing number of journal editors.
Since a growing number of studies conclude that peer review is flawed and ineffective as it is being implemented, why not apply scientific and engineering research and methods to the peer review process?
This is the purpose of the International Symposium on Peer Reviewing:
ISPR (http://www.ICTconfer.org/ispr) being organized in the context of The 3rd International Conference on Knowledge Generation, Communication and Management: KGCM 2009 (http://www.ICTconfer.org/kgcm), which will be held on July 10-13, 2009, in Orlando, Florida, USA.
——————————————————-
Deadlines for ISPR 2009 and KGCM 2009
March 18th, 2009, for papers/abstracts submissions and Invited Sessions Proposals April 13th, 2009: Authors Notification May 27th, 2009: Camera ready, final version
——————————————————-
Best regards,
ISPR/KGCM 2009 Organizing committee
MORE INFO at http://www.ICTconfer.org/ispr
Smokey: please check the following link, it’s data from the South Pacific Sea Level and Climate Monitoring Project
http://www.bom.gov.au/ntc/IDO60024/IDO60024.2006.pdf
Page 13, trends in sea levels since 1992:
Kiribati + 5.3 mm/year
Tuvalu + 5.7 mm/year
Vanuatu + 2.2 mm/year
These trends take into account inverse barometry and vertical movements of the islands. Given this, I would find it optimistic to say that “The sea level is not rising.” there.