Just when you think cycle 23 may be over, it pops out another spot. Here is the SOHO MDI image showing a sunspot dubbed #1012, in solar cycle 23.
From SOHO
For those wondering how this is determined, cycle 24 spots (the new cycle) normally start near the poles and gradually migrate towards the equator as the cycle progresses over 11 years. So in this case, a spot at the equator means it is a cycle 23 spot. The magnetic polarity of the spot also defines it as a cycle 23 spot.
Here is a closer view:
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nobwainer (Geoff Sharp) (22:50:39) :
Leif Svalgaard (21:28:20) :
Don’t believe all you read in forums. In January, there was a SC23 region on a single day, the 19th, and a SC24 region on 9 through 13 January, thus a 5-to-1 favor of SC24.
You have to be careful what you read in here too. I am not interested in days….more the amount of spots. From what I have found sunspot 1010 was the first spot for the year and was SC24 on the 9th, followed by 1011 which was SC23 on the 19th, then today with 1012 which is SC23.
Don’t know what your problem or interest really is. As far as I can tell the sumber of spots were as follows:
Jan 9: 3
Jan 10: 6
Jan 11: 5
Jan 12: 3
Jan 13: 1
all SC24 [total 18 spots]
and
Jan 19: 2
SC23
A long-lived group with many spots is more important than two small one-day visitors.
So every 2 weeks a very weak sunspot! Now even the second cycle 23 sunspot in a row. Where is cycle 24?
– As far as I remember, the sunspit seen around 19/1 2009 was also a cycle 23 spot.. This means neary a month without cycle 24 spots and also that 2009 had only one cycle 24 sunspot group in addition to the 2 cycle 23 sunspot group. As far as I can see.
Cycle 24 has cold feet from all this publicity.
Some of us are really getting desperate for cycle 24 to begin in earnest. Radio amateurs can really use the propagation that comes with an active Sun.
Leif Svalgaard (23:10:20) said
the sumber of spots were as follows:
Jan 9: 3
Jan 10: 6
Jan 11: 5
Jan 12: 3
Jan 13: 1
all SC24 [total 18 spots]
I check out Space Weather every day and never saw that many spots. How are you counting? If you go to Spaceweather’s archive for January 10th they mention just 1 spot #1010. What ever way you got 6 spots, it can not be compared to historical records. Watt’s going on?
This has been interesting for me since it’s something I’ve never paid any attention to, more than I ever used to want to know about solar cycles, minimums, maximums, warming and cooling. Now I am really interested because it makes a whole lot more sense to me than the “science” of global warming cause by man.
Leif Svalgaard (14:23:22) :
to
vukcevic (13:52:57) :
If the planets generate very energetic particles [which they do] these CAN travel upstream [like cosmic rays can]. but only [as for cosmic rays] with difficulty. ……. Of course, in your and all the other cases, that never seems to deter such speculation. but the public is really not well served with this, unless marked with ‘for entertainment only’.
I did not imply it was particles. Planetary magnetic fields with the associated magnetospheres and the orbital properties are summarily dismissed, while some fanciful hypothesis (often a pure guesswork) are given accolade of supreme science, to be few years later,rejected as worthless (as you often remind the readers).
It is fact that the formula, I produced is not perfect but it has high level (over 90%) correlation with KNOWN and accepted solar polar fields measurements, for which undoubtedly you made great contribution and are one of the foremost experts in the field.
As far as public entertainment is concerned, unfortunately the entertainers are valued far more than scientists, to my dismay, I am not either. Science should not be dull and dreary; it should be a ‘magnet’ for any inquisitive mind. I do not claim that plethora of solar scientists are wrong, I even occasionally put a ‘health worming’, it is just a hypothesis, but the formula is just too close to ‘measured data’ to be a coincidence.
http://www.vukcevic.co.uk/PolarField.gif
http://www.geocities.com/vukcevicu/PolarField.gif
‘the nature is adverse to a coincidence, it is ruled by a cause and the consequence’
I know very little about sun cycles, but find the discussion fascinating. Does the appearance of another cycle 23 spot (one a bit more obvious than some of the previous observations) mean the transition between cycles 23 and 24 will be even longer than postulated, or is there something else going on?
The interest is that the solar cycle is extending much longer than predicted by most , we have had many days of no sunspots and now we finally have one of old cycle 23 appear, and the last spot was an old cycle 23 and that was 3 odd weeks ago. I find in all very interesting for the pure quietness, and rather long cycle change that does not seem to want to ramp up as most expected by now…and just what it bodes for the future temperature on earth in the years ahead.
Leif Svalgaard (23:10:20) :
I don’t have a problem…just looking for different data than what you regard as important.
If this were a Hollywood production, studio execs would be gnashing their teeth. SC23 continues to draw ’em in, while the newest production, SC24, just can’t seem to draw many crowds. Instead of a new mega-hit, the newest effort is making like a boring documentary.
Odd. Solarcycle24.com shopws a much lower activity throughout all of January (up to today, Feb 11) than would be implied by the first post.
They count 23 days now of zero sunspots -ending apparently with this cycle 23 microspot on Feb 11-12, and have extended their plot of “days per month with no sunspots” to cover the period from November 2008 up to January 2009. That graphic also indicates that the first post is incorrect.
Seems like I checked only yesterday and the magnetogram looked like a sheet of grey linoleum. Can’t believe I missed all that sc 24 activity.
Leif, while you’re up, where are we in the Milankovic cycle?
@leif
what is the average duration that the old and new cycle co-excists.?
i thought sc24 started somewhere oktober 2008 and sc 23 is producing its final sunspots now so around 6 months or will it take longer for sc 23 to die.
Slightly OT but could be linked in some way. Interesting post over on ICECAP about Met Office scientists attack alarmists. Curiously, Dr Viki Pope of the Met Office has launched a heavy attack on scientists claim alarmism over Climate Change endorsed by another UK scientist. The interesting point is that although not apparently making any alarmism claims herself, or the other scientist, neither has been particularly vocal in the past in calming down climate fears, suggesting that they actually endorsed them before now.
Could it be that now the wheels are falling off the AGW scare, to which the Met Office has contributed greatly, whether intentionally or not, that we are now seeing the good old rear covering action, & we’ll be getting the classic statements like ” well we never actually said , a, b, c, & x, y, z.” Sounds fishy to me.
I think that it is clear that the radiatave energy from the sun changes very little due to the solar cycle. But, because of the strong correlation to temerature and prolonged solar minima, there is likely some link.
Whether this is due to cosmic rays, or some other as of yet un-known link we will just have to wait and see.
Whatever the answer is, the current sun spot situation has me worried that my new Jet-Ski may not get as much use as is should.
Will the global recession end when Cycle 24 finally gets going?
So, the sun is quiet, there’s a (though not too strong) la nina… and both RSS and UAH are showing extraordinary warming in January and from amsu it is clear that the warm trend is still continuing. What’s up?!
Yes, that small spot belongs to the old cycle 23 because it is close to the Sun’s equator.
However, apparently nobody noticed another spot. It is situated in the “upper left” quadrant of the SOHO image and, because of its high latitude, it must belong to cycle 24.
Or is it a defect in the picture?
Alan the Brit (01:44:21) : pointed out:
Slightly OT but could be linked in some way. Interesting post over on ICECAP about Met Office scientists attack alarmists
I strongly recommend clicking the trail of links to the original article. I find the timing strange. We will soon be having a number of assorted scientists and other self-interested ones holding a conference to rally up the global warming scare, just before the Copenhagen meeting.
It appears she is making a pre-emptive shot at underming them. Has she seen their press release?
And another thing, it’s a bit rich a head of The Hadley Centre now complaing about over-hyping global warming. She also is using the weasel words “climate change” as global warming clearly seems to have become an embarrassment to her. We must always force the believers to wear their words “Global Warming”
Sven (02:14:43) :
YES! strange things are happening!!
Around 8-9 january things got quite extraordinary indeed:
http://www.klimadebat.dk/forum/attachments/stratcold.gif
Many things, here at WUWT in a blog i got this nice graph that shows, that the Sea surface temperatures in January was infact falling:
http://i40.tinypic.com/1js3kw.jpg
This implies, that what ever is going on, its likely to be somewhat temporary.
At ICECAP, it is believe that we might get cold out of this in the end:
http://icecap.us/images/uploads/Super_Strong_Stratospheric_Mid.pdf
What IS going on seems to be a spectacular split up of the big cold lowpressure area over the arctic! a warm area has succeeded to penetrate the arctic cold lowpressure resulting in 2 seperate cold arctic areas, pushed south.
The net outcome in this speaking warming/cooling? The warm area over the north pole might lose some energy to space?
If the colder areas reaches open waters at any point this would warm the air quicker than the sea would appera colder?
I dont know, but here a MUST-READ on the present situation (!) – also found here at WUWT in a blog:
http://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/IOTD/view.php?id=36972
I think these things are good to know, because soon we will hear the warmies party due to the new heat. I think its a fluctuation caused by very special weather formation over the arctic.
Jim Steele (00:05:24) :
Jim ….. 1010 was a ‘region’ which contained multiple spots rather than a single spot.
Sunspot dubbed #1012 seems to been seen before as perhaps #1010, #1011 that happened 25 days ago as the sun rotates?
Can anyone tell is this controversial spot at the North or South hemisphere. SC23 has a large South excess, and recently has been anything up to 18 months behind the North.
http://www.sidc.be/html/wnosuf.html
Dr. Svalgaard might tell us if there is a connection.