Can’t you just see this scrolling across your TV during an EAS alert?”…. If this had been an actual El Niño, you would have been instructed on where to complain to your nearest modeler turned forecaster….” I wonder what kind of graphical icon TWC will come up with for an El Niño Watch? – Anthony
FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE
Feb. 5, 2009
Contact: Linda Joy
301 713-0622, ext. 127
NOAA Unveils New Alert System for La Niña and El Niño
La Niña Likely to Continue into Spring
NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center today issued the first La Niña advisory under its new El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) Alert System. Forecasters expect La Niña to influence weather patterns across the United States during the remainder of the winter and into the early spring.
Defined as cooler than normal sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean, La Niña impacts the weather globally. La Niña’s opposite is El Niño, or warmer than normal ocean temperatures. These changes in ocean temperatures alter the tropical wind and rainfall patterns with far reaching implications.
“The typical weather patterns associated with La Niña and El Niño affect many industries including agriculture, transportation, energy, shipping and construction,” said Michael S. Halpert, deputy director of the Climate Prediction Center. “The ENSO Alert System will succinctly inform industry, government agencies, academia and the public about the onset and status of La Niña and El Niño. This system will also help decision makers plan for the potential effects presented by these conditions.”
La Niña conditions have been present since late December, but it is too early to say exactly how strong the event will be and precisely how long it will last. However, for the next few months La Niña is expected to bring milder and drier than average conditions to the southeastern and southwestern states. It is also expected to bring wetter-than-average conditions to the Ohio and Tennessee valleys, and cooler than average temperatures to the Pacific Northwest.
The new ENSO alert system includes La Niña and El Niño watches and advisories which the Climate Prediction Center will issue when specific conditions exist.
- La Niña or El Niño Watch: conditions in the equatorial Pacific are favorable for the development of La Niña or El Niño conditions in the next three months.
- La Niña or El Niño Advisory: La Niña or El Niño conditions have developed and are expected to continue.
These watches and advisories are now part of the ENSO Diagnostic Discussion, which is issued by the Climate Prediction Center on the Thursday falling between the 5th and 11th of every month. It is available online at http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_advisory.
NOAA understands and predicts changes in the Earth’s environment, from the depths of the ocean to the surface of the sun, and conserves and manages our coastal and marine resources.
– 30 –
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Great Leif: …SORRY…
I am only thinking this range:
http://umtof.umd.edu/pm/pm_2week.imagemap?357,224
?????….(This justifies the breaking of the tail of the comet.)?????
sorry for the bad english.
Frank Mosher: You wrote, “My point is that i.e. on the week ending 8/17/08 NINOS 1,2,and 3 were strongly positive at 1.46,.86 and .93. But NINO 4 did not turn positive. The value for NINO 3.4 was .17, and by 8/31 was back negative. IMHO to get an overall negative value for NINO 3.4, on 8/31, with NINO 3 at positve .59, tells me that the primary driver was NINO 4.”
In an earlier reply, I illustrated and discussed why NINO4 does not vary as much as NINO3.4. Three questions with respect to your most recent comment:
1. Through what physical process does the SST anomaly in the NINO4 region “drive” the SST anomaly in the NINO3.4 region?
2. Did NINO4 only drive the SST anomalies of NINO3.4 between the dates you mentioned?
3. Or does NINO4 SST anomaly drive NINO3.4 SST anomaly all the time?
DAV
I don’t even know if it’s possible to measure the heat content, we have enough problems just trying to get temps right.
I don’t have an answer for history. I don’t believe that temperature is a good proxy. If I’m wrong, I’d like to know how.
DaveE.
Fernando (13:54:21) :
(This justifies the breaking of the tail of the comet.)?????
The ‘disconnection event’ [comet losing its tail] is not by solar wind ‘blasts’ or pressure, but by the solar wind magnetic field abruptly changing direction as the heliospheric current sheet sweeps over the comet.
In their 2008 ANNUAL SUMMATION GISS noted
Given our expectation of the next El Niño beginning in 2009 or 2010, it still seems likely that a new global temperature record will be set within the next 1-2 years, despite the moderate negative effect of the reduced solar irradiance.
I wonder if any one else has noted that a strong to moderate El Nino event took place after each of the last four solar minimums , namely 1964.1976, 1986, and 1996. These events happened anywhere from 0-12 months after the solar minimum and after the sunspot number had reached 18-35 range. It did not happen that soon in 1954 and again 1944 [2-3 years after].Could these events be in anyway related? If the last solar minimum was the latter part of 2008, an El Nino event may possible in 2009 or 2010 if the solar activity also picks up during the latter part of 2009 according to this past pattern?
Bob Tisdale. ” Drive” may not be accurate. In July of 2008, temps in NINOs 1,2, and 3 were well above the .5 degree threshold. It appeared, at that time, that baesed upon those values, that an El Nino could be forming. Possibly in response to the recently ended La Nina. But NINO 4 just wouldn’t cooperate. And indeed returned from a neutral position to significantly cooler anomalies. After which NINO 3 cooled to below average and NINOs 1 and 2 toward neutral. In a sense, NINO 4 just wouldn’t ” get with the program. ” From my observation, this is unusual, over the last 5 years, that the graphs are presented on the Aussie web site. I will have to do some more digging to see if this could be classified as ” not very unusual”. I have noticed that the anomalous depth of the 20C isotherm seems to show that heat has been released from the Western Equatorial Pacicic warm pool. BTW, i visit your blog daily, as i believe, as i am sure that you do, that SSTs are interesting, but also informative as to climate and weather.
Bob. This shows the build up and discharge of heat from the Western Pacific Warm pool you discuss frequently.http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_update/wkd20anmeq5_color.gif
matt v. Good hypothesis. I have seen somewhere an analysis that showed just that. I.E. temps are most likely to respond to an increase in solar activity, right after the change in direction, from a solar minimum. ISTM the analysis went back for several centuries. But i don’t recall where i saw the analysis.
Bob Tisdale. Looking at the data for the 2007/2008 La NINA, it behave somewhat as expected, i.e. very cold anomalies started in NINOs 1+2, with 3, 3.4, and 4 in warm mode. Then gradually spread west over time. Then NINOs 1+2 warmed, and the La Nina dispersed from east to west, as expected. The data may be viewed here.http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/data/indices/wksst.for . When i have a chance i will look back at 1998 through 2001 for similar progression. It seems to me that after a La Nin a, i would expect NINO 4 region to warm, as the W. Pacific warm pool returns.
looking at the La Nina the began in July 1998 and extended effectively through Feb. 2001, it also began in NINOs 3 and 4 , and spread east, over time to include NINOs 1+2. This seems counter intuitive, as i thought it was the prevailing winds that pushed colder water from east to west. My basic point is that what is happening in the central Pacific seems a little extraordinary.
Mary Hinge:
EvolutionThe latest weekly SST departures are: NOAA 02/09/2009
Niño 4……. -0.8ºC
Niño 3.4…. -0.9ºC
Niño 3……..-0.7ºC
Niño1+2…. -0.3ºC
The most recent ONI value (November 2008–January 2009) is −0.6ºC.
salute
Fernando (12:44:35) :
The latest BOM graphs are in, all except NINO 1 showing signs of cooling.
http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/enso/indices.shtml
Be intersting to see if this is a dead cat bounce or a more prolonged spell of late season cooling. SOI is also increasing but again that may start decreasing soon. Still very interesting in the equatorial pacific!
‘“NOAA understands and predicts changes in the Earth’s environment…”
The worst form of ignorance is thinking you know or understand when you don’t. An amendment of that mission statement to ‘strives to understand and predict’ would surely be less vain and more realistic. But what would you expect from a bureaucracy that has arrogated to itself the ‘administration’ of the oceans and the atmosphere?
Frank Mosher
Based on your comments I went back all the way to 1901 and found that after 8 out of the last 10 solar minimums, a moderate to a strong El Nino event followed about 0 -12 months later. Pretty good odds for one in 2009 or 2010. It all depends on the sun and cycle #24 which seems to defy prediction. My own take currently is that #24 will not pick up in any meaningful way until late 2009 and thus any EL Nino is likely to be in 2010. The year 2009 will be mostly an ENSO neutral type or a weak La Nina in my opinion.This straight intution only.
Matt V. I understand your curiosity regarding the timing you see in solar minimums and El Nino events. You even make a prediction regarding an El Nino in 2010 and indicate it is straight intuition only. Are there triggers to an El Nino other than the Sun that would be based on something more testable than intuition? You can actually read about those by typing “El Nino and triggers” in google.
Matt V. Thanks for the info. I too am wondering if an El Nino is in the near future. I am currently looking at the Indian Ocean Dipole, and looking for a connection with the NINO 4 region. The 20C thermocline anomaly seems to preclude an El Nino in the near future, as it looks like the Western Pacific Warm Pool will need to ramp up first.
Frank Mosher: Based on the Indo-Pacific Warm Pool Index…
http://i40.tinypic.com/2qdsow5.jpg
Discussed here:
http://bobtisdale.blogspot.com/2008/12/indo-pacific-warm-pool-index.html
…and based on the Western Equatorial Pacific Warm Water Volume…
http://i37.tinypic.com/28sxc8m.jpg
Discussed here:
http://bobtisdale.blogspot.com/2008/11/equatorial-pacific-warm-water-volume.html
…the next El Nino is cocked and ready to go. And it has been for a while.
But based on the Equatorial Pacific Average Subsurface Temperature…
http://i35.tinypic.com/sbu52c.jpg
Discussed here:
http://bobtisdale.blogspot.com/2008/11/average-subsurface-temperature-of.html
…the top 300 meters of the equatorial Pacific have decreased in temperature, though slightly, since 1979.
I wonder if Hansen’s predictions a few years ago of another significant El Nino were based on the Warm Water Volume and Warm Pool Index being so high. In some respects, they look like they simply acquired new temporary “setpoints”, but with only 30 years of those datasets, who knows what’s “normal”.
Regards
Bob Tisdale. Thanks for the excellent info. I have observed, by looking at the vertical temperature anomaly sections, is that every El Nino, since the data began( 1980), has an anomalous cold pool, at the 150m depth, in the 150e-180e region. The size, strength, and duration of the El Nino depends on the respective action of the subsurface cold pool. IMHO, the 1997-1998 El Nino was driven by the eastward migration of that enormous cold pool. As it moved, it pushed less dense warmer water to the surface, sort of like an artesian well.The El Nino ended when the cold pool had reached the S. American coast, and was at the surface , because there was no longer any anomalous warm water remaining. Every El Nino since 1980 has the anomalous cold pool at 150m depth, at 160e-180e. IMHO warm water cannot displace cold water, due to density. Hence the current large cold pool that covers most of the central and eastern pacific is unlike to change much in the near future. Currently the 150m depthat 160e-180e shows a slightly warm anomaly, so it seems to me that an El Nino is very unlikely for the near future. So it is my opinion that the Super El Nino of 97-98 was driven by the Super La Nina that followed. It just wasn’t apparent as it was at depth. Thanks for your tireless thought and excellent analysis regards
“…the next El Nino is cocked and ready to go. And it has been for a while.”
This stuff is evidently above my pay grade but looking at the graphs I would guess neutral conditions are next in store, ff. Mr. Mosher.
DaveE (03:29:25) : As you’re looking into GISSTemp code, is there any reference to pressure or humidity in the code?
Nope. Take in raw temperature and station data and munges it. No physics need apply… Certainly none having to do with heat content or precipitation.
It is substantially a ‘one trick pony’ with some minor variations. It repeatedly applies ‘the reference station method’ to adjust real temperatures to be something else.
It has a couple of minor tricks, like tossing out chunks of data, but these are just, IMHO, setups for the RSM gig. Toss data, then use RSM to re-create it from ‘nearby’ stations (that are 1000 km to 1500 km away…). Average data into zones, then use RSM to modify them too. Take a ‘light’ number from the station data, use that to choose what to fudge using, yes, the RSM to change real temperatures based on other far away stations that are ‘nearby’ in a different climate type.
By a rough count, it applies the RSM at least 4 times, and maybe as high as 6. To the best of my knowledge there is no peer reviewed basis for recursive applications of RSM. (I think there was one paper that showed a ‘nearby’ station ‘correlated’ and could be used, but the code does ‘linear offset’ not ‘correlation’ and the paper did not support doing it again, and again, and again, and… since the modified data from step one are no longer raw station data, thus not the basis of the paper…)
Mary Hinge (04:44:54) : If you don’t find it meaningful why are you bothering to take time to discuss it?
I discuss it because it is the fraud at the heart of this fiasco of GIStemp doublespeak.
As an analogy:
How can one talk about Maddoff and not mention lying?
Mary Hinge (04:44:54) : you don’t find it meaningful why are you bothering to take time to discuss it?
To put a more specific example to it:
Most people live in coastal areas. Most thermometer stations are near people. The coverage on both coast is much higher than in ‘fly over country’. When the jet stream makes big deep loops, as it just did a month or two ago, they often dip down in ‘fly over country’ and freeze it hard. At those time, the jet pulls warm air up both coasts.
Because there are more thermometers on the coasts, they dominate the average. It “gets real warm” even though most of the country is frozen.
That is not a very useful behaviour.
Now a month later, the lobe of arctic are is shifted and more thermometers are under it (over a coast or both) and the heartland is getting a nice gulf warm spell. The averages report it “gets real cold” even though it isn’t.
The reality that “the polar lobe of cold air is just wobbling back and forth” is lost, hidden in the error band from a non-equal distribution of thermometers. Thus the analogy: “LOOK! The pixel is pinker!!! Run for the hills!!!!”
Now a full picture would show some pixel pinker, and some bluer, and a wobble of the jet stream back and forth with no net heat change. A full picture would have an equal geographic distribution of pixels…
Leif Svalgaard (09:15:23) : If 2009 should turn out to have a global temperature a whole degree less than 2008 and 2010 in turn a whole degree less than 2009, I look forward to read all the comments that say that global temperature is meaningless,
One can disparage the ‘two line pass’ rule in hockey, and assert that the referee is half blind, and still take joy if your side scores a goal even under those circumstances (but the ref is still half blind… and the two line pass rule is still wrong…)
IF we had an even geographical distribution of thermometers and IF we were using trends in high, low, and average as individual series, I would be saying much less about it. The unequal physical sampling of the surface and the mixing of high and low, hides too much of interest and compromises the utility. That different points in time are based on different sets of thermometers (often drastically different – loss of USSR Siberia stations) makes the ref half blind when a straight average is used over all time periods. (i.e. if we had an even temporal distribution of thermometers…)
Can these defects be corrected? Maybe so. Are they? Certainly not in GIStemp. Should we buy the ref glasses, or just get a new ref?
Leif Svalgaard (10:49:58) : The total mass of the solar wind in a Volume as big as the Earth is a big as a normal Thanksgiving Turkey. Now, the suns hurls these turkeys at us all the time, so how much solar wind hits the Earth every second? Do the math and you’ll find that it amount to a Big Mac with Fries. The magnetosphere cross section is more than a 100 times bigger, so 100 Happy Meals are coming our way every second.
But a turkey at Mach 1 …. or a Happy Meal at Mach 14 …. Don’t try to catch!
So how much energy is in these, er, turkeys? 😉
Maybe we should look more to the Atlantic:
http://www.newscientist.com/article/mg20126955.400-north-atlantic-is-worlds-climate-superpower.html
“In past studies, Anastasios Tsonis and colleagues at the University of Wisconsin-Milwaukee have shown statistically that climate features like El Niño and the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), which drives weather across Europe, become synchronised for a few decades, before the links abruptly break down and a new pattern emerges. They call it “synchronised chaos”.
Now their modelling studies have shown the action is always driven from the North Atlantic. Tsonis says the NAO is “without exception the common ingredient… the pacemaker of major climate shifts”