Can’t you just see this scrolling across your TV during an EAS alert?”…. If this had been an actual El Niño, you would have been instructed on where to complain to your nearest modeler turned forecaster….” I wonder what kind of graphical icon TWC will come up with for an El Niño Watch? – Anthony
FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE
Feb. 5, 2009
Contact: Linda Joy
301 713-0622, ext. 127
NOAA Unveils New Alert System for La Niña and El Niño
La Niña Likely to Continue into Spring
NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center today issued the first La Niña advisory under its new El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) Alert System. Forecasters expect La Niña to influence weather patterns across the United States during the remainder of the winter and into the early spring.
Defined as cooler than normal sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean, La Niña impacts the weather globally. La Niña’s opposite is El Niño, or warmer than normal ocean temperatures. These changes in ocean temperatures alter the tropical wind and rainfall patterns with far reaching implications.
“The typical weather patterns associated with La Niña and El Niño affect many industries including agriculture, transportation, energy, shipping and construction,” said Michael S. Halpert, deputy director of the Climate Prediction Center. “The ENSO Alert System will succinctly inform industry, government agencies, academia and the public about the onset and status of La Niña and El Niño. This system will also help decision makers plan for the potential effects presented by these conditions.”
La Niña conditions have been present since late December, but it is too early to say exactly how strong the event will be and precisely how long it will last. However, for the next few months La Niña is expected to bring milder and drier than average conditions to the southeastern and southwestern states. It is also expected to bring wetter-than-average conditions to the Ohio and Tennessee valleys, and cooler than average temperatures to the Pacific Northwest.
The new ENSO alert system includes La Niña and El Niño watches and advisories which the Climate Prediction Center will issue when specific conditions exist.
- La Niña or El Niño Watch: conditions in the equatorial Pacific are favorable for the development of La Niña or El Niño conditions in the next three months.
- La Niña or El Niño Advisory: La Niña or El Niño conditions have developed and are expected to continue.
These watches and advisories are now part of the ENSO Diagnostic Discussion, which is issued by the Climate Prediction Center on the Thursday falling between the 5th and 11th of every month. It is available online at http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_advisory.
NOAA understands and predicts changes in the Earth’s environment, from the depths of the ocean to the surface of the sun, and conserves and manages our coastal and marine resources.
– 30 –
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If you don’t find it meaningful why are you bothering to take time to discuss it?
Sorry,above should refer to E.M.Smith (23:19:43) :
Mary Hinge.
[Strange, addressing a man called Mary], “If you don’t find it meaningful why are you bothering to take time to discuss it?”
It’s an analogy; a comparison. Get it? It makes a valid point: what is the global average temperature supposed to be?
Got an answer to that?
Mary Hinge is right and probably knows why.
We all know GISSTemp is a crock of s**t. That’s the whole point of it!
So is HadCRUT, so is UAH and so is RSS!
Even if it were possible to measure global temp it’s an irrelevance.
Non of them take in specific heat or heat density.
They’re all a distraction from the REAL issue of the heat or energy content of the planet.
Humidity isn’t increasing so it’s unlikely that overall heat content is.
DaveE.
E.M.Smith (18:01:14) :
Maybe: “The increase in longwave cooling is traced to decreasing coverage by ice clouds, potentially supporting Lindzen’s ‘‘infrared iris’’ hypothesis of climate stabilization.”
http://blog.acton.org/uploads/Spencer_07GRL.pdf
Leif: Thanks again….(an increase in the density of solar wind…????)
VG (00:35:30) :
I wonder if Leif has any comments on this
http://www.cdejager.com/wp-content/uploads/2009/02/2009-forecasting-jastp-71-239.pdf
Kees de Jager is a good, solid scientists. Even so, such people can go off the rails occasionally. The paper has two parts: introduction of cycles, phase shifts, and ‘transitions’, and a prediction of solar cycle 24. The first part is way too much speculation for my taste [what Ken Schatten calls cyclomania]. Their Figure 4 is supposed to be supporting evidence. To me, the Figure does not support their thesis at all. But, beauty must be in the eyes of the beholder, it seems. The second part is a rather traditional analysis leading to prediction of a small solar cycle, partly based on some of my work and data [and therefore good 🙂 ]. The actual numbers predicted suffer a bit from use of the official aa-index and sunspot number, both of which are not quite correct, but any correction would just change the numbers somewhat, not change the qualitative [and important] aspects: a small, slow cycle 24.
Bob Tisdale. I understand that NINO 3.4 encompasses parts of 3 and 4. My point is that i.e. on the week ending 8/17/08 NINOS 1,2,and 3 were strongly positive at 1.46,.86 and .93. But NINO 4 did not turn positive. The value for NINO 3.4 was .17, and by 8/31 was back negative. IMHO to get an overall negative value for NINO 3.4, on 8/31, with NINO 3 at positve .59, tells me that the primary driver was NINO 4.
E.M.Smith (23:19:43) :The Global Average Temperature is about as meaningful as the average illumination of pixels on your screen. You can tell something happens as the average pixel changes hue and brightness, but it doesn’t mean anything… All the information has been ‘averaged out’.
Does that mean Automatic Gain Control (AGC) circuits to control the average brightness (or loudness or whatever) are useless because they operate with no information? Wouldn’t the necessary information content depend upon the goal?
Fernando (06:36:59) :
(an increase in the density of solar wind…????)
Since when? Over the last five years the overall density has been steady at 3.5 protons per cubic centimeter. People might want to contemplate how little that actually is. The total mass of the solar wind in a Volume as big as the Earth is a big as a normal Thanksgiving Turkey
DaveE (06:04:06) : Even if it were possible to measure global temp it’s an irrelevance. None of them {GISS, HadCRUT, etc.] take in specific heat or heat density. They’re all a distraction from the REAL issue of the heat or energy content of the planet. Humidity isn’t increasing so it’s unlikely that overall heat content is
So just how would you go about measuring heat content? Temperature is a good proxy, don’t you think?
I agree with global averaged temperature, global sea ice, global glacier melt, etc. If we were to average global wind speed, of what use is that? We automatically know that this kind of pressure variant dependent, address dependent, and jet stream dependent measure (wind speed) would be ridiculous and useless as a global average, for several well known reasons. So why the hand wringing of global average temperature? Is there an essential difference between wind (which is not reported as an average global wind speed data point) and these other weather pattern variables that are equally highly dependent on several local factors? Is it not of scientific importance to know that temperatures in the NH are different than temperatures in the SH? Or that temperatures over land are essentially different than temperatures over oceans? The important information for civilization and the environment is not found in global averaged data. It is found in the unsmoothed, unadjusted weather noise out your back door, and the causes of such noisy weather.
DAV (08:34:23) :
‘So just how would you go about measuring heat content? Temperature is a good proxy, don’t you think?’
No, temperature tells you nothing of the heat content. Humid air contains more heat than dry air at a given temperature for instance.
DaveE.
Pamela Gray (09:05:49) :
I agree with global averaged temperature, global sea ice, global glacier melt, etc.
If 2009 should turn out to have a global temperature a whole degree less than 2008 and 2010 in turn a whole degree less than 2009, I look forward to read all the comments that say that global temperature is meaningless, all the hand-wringing over the use of useless data, all the disparaging of people who based on a 2-degree drop in temperature falsely believe that the globe is cooling [this is only weather, and global temps are meaningless, etc] …
Pamela Gray (09:05:49) :
‘The important information for civilization and the environment is not found in global averaged data. It is found in the unsmoothed, unadjusted weather noise out your back door, and the causes of such noisy weather.’
I agree but that is not what they are trying to do with meaningless, globally averaged temperature data. They are trying to dictate a world policy with this misinformation.
DaveE.
Leif Svalgaard (09:15:23) :
‘If 2009 should turn out to have a global temperature a whole degree less than 2008 and 2010 in turn a whole degree less than 2009, I look forward to read all the comments that say that global temperature is meaningless, all the hand-wringing over the use of useless data, all the disparaging of people who based on a 2-degree drop in temperature falsely believe that the globe is cooling [this is only weather, and global temps are meaningless, etc] …’
I will still say that Leif. Heat will be redistributed, I don’t actually think that the total energy changes as much as we’re led to believe.
DaveE.
DaveE (09:37:58) :
I will still say that Leif. Heat will be redistributed, I don’t actually think that the total energy changes as much as we’re led to believe.
To make that statement you must have an idea or definition of the ‘total energy’. Tell me what it is.
Leif Svalgaard (09:52:57) :
‘To make that statement you must have an idea or definition of the ‘total energy’. Tell me what it is.’
Ouch, you really stuck that one to me.
I can’t quantify it, but I suppose there’s someone who can.
I’m sure you’ll tell me if I miss a few.
There’s the angular momentum of the Earths rotation, motion through space, potential energy held in the heat of the atmosphere, oceans & land mass.
There’s quite a bit of heat energy in the molten core, kinetic energy of wind & oceanic flows, the only flow inwards of energy that I know of is from the Sun & the only flow out from radiation of the upper atmosphere to space.
I’m sure I’ve missed a few.
Now I’ll wait to get jumped on.
Dave.
DaveE (09:14:35) : No, temperature tells you nothing of the heat content. Humid air contains more heat than dry air at a given temperature for instance
Are you saying that dry air and humid air with the same heat content will be and same pressure will have the same temperatures? Last time I looked, temperature and heat content are related on the macro level.
Specific Heat of Water: 4186 J/(kg*K)
Specific Heat of Air(stp): 1000 J/(kg*K)
Note that H = specific heat * density * volume
But OTOH, humid air is less dense that dry air.
ρa = 0.0035 pa / T
ρw = 0.0022 pw / T
ρaw = ρa (1 + x) / (1 + 1.609 x )
ρa = dry air density (kg/m3)
pa = partial pressure of air (Pa, N/m2)
ρw= density of water vapor (kg/m3)
pw = partial pressure of water(Pa, N/m2)
ρaw= density air + water vapor
x = specific humidity or humidity ratio (kg/kg)
T = absolute dry bulb temperature (K)
Note how density goes down as humidity rises. What does that do to the heat content?
—
Is average heat content a meaningless term? How about average humidity? Growing seasons are determined by temperature ranges vs. heat ranges. If I want to estimate aircraft performance, I only need air density which is calculated from temperature and pressure. Heat content is not directly used at all. Need I go on?
—
You still didn’t mention how you would go about measuring heat content. Nor have you bothered to mention how you would use it.
I also think that both sides of the argument try to dissect the comings and goings of a knat’s ass while ignoring the elephant’s. If it is cooler, I want to know where and why a weather pattern variation showed up. Partly because of curiosity but also because I have been trained since a little girl to plant what will grow. In our temperate climate, weather patterns can vary quite a bit! Zones can go from one number to another with the result being destroyed crops and no income for the year. It doesn’t take but one or two years for a new farmer to call it quits and go bankrupt if they don’t have a good handle on weather pattern trends and causes. I actually appreciate the NOAA issuing these “el” and “la” alerts since what happens out there affects what happens in Wallowa County, along with other weather pattern variables.
Given this above SST pattern that we now have been alerted to, if I had the means, I would be planting red winter wheat on dry ground and hay on irrigated ground in every plot of ground I had, and get rid of spring wheat, along with some of the other “designer” crops that have been pushed our way. However, if Hansan told me that CO2 will also raise temps globally by .002 degrees during this la nina period, I would still make those same changes in my crops to more freeze hardy production.
To be succinct, I need the noise to show me the range. Without the noise how in the heck to I pick what trees to plant to replace the old willow I cut down? There are so many other crops that depend on rather specific temperature ranges and growing days to produce that the list would thread kill this blog. The global temperature doesn’t give me that information and never will. I need the predicted noisy range of temperature variation, and first/last killer frost, based on trends in known variables such as the SST near the pacific equator. NOAA has managed to produce something they used to do all the time, predict weather patterns for agriculture.
Which leads me to my main gripe about NOAA. Wallowa County has a very specific weather pattern variation that is not shared by surrounding counties because we are nearly surrounded by mountain ranges with an opening primarily to the east and north of the main crop production areas. It would behoove NOAA to report noisy weather trends over the past decades with a moving 5 year or less average specific to our county. Not the anomaly mind you, but the range of actual temps by month. It would also be great if they would provide a prediction of range and growing season 5 years out, based on known variables (IE PDO, jet stream, Arctic behavior, etc). Forget CO2. It will not change a decision between cold and warm weather production not one iota. Let’s ask for a useful NOAA instead of a whatever is popular to believe at the moment NOAA.
Leif Svalgaard (08:28:59) :
Fernando (06:36:59) :
(an increase in the density of solar wind…????)
The total mass of the solar wind in a Volume as big as the Earth is a big as a normal Thanksgiving Turkey. Now, the suns hurls these turkeys at us all the time, so how much solar wind hits the Earth every second? Do the math and you’ll find that it amount to a Big Mac with Fries. The magnetosphere cross section is more than a 100 times bigger, so 100 Happy Meals are coming our way every second.
Anthony, maybe that might become an area of income: Weather pattern prediction and 5 year previous trend analysis/causes for locally derived agricultural areas.
I really meant really big “el nino” events, when the sun was like this click
A sun like this one erased Mochica culture (about 500 A.D.)
Perhaps other small nino or nina phenomena in between big ones could be explained as sea returning to equilibrium (be it cooling or heating up).
By the way, they knew cycles click
This fresco painted by this culture, clearly shows sea waves (below) and a kind of a “gnomon” (above) indicating several positions of the bird head on a four step stair (which they used to build to observe sun´s position). Presumably the figures in the fresco represent the sun and planets.
DAV
Sorry, been afk.
Yes, heat & temperature are related & proportional in a given atmosphere & pressure.
Change the pressure or humidity & the heat constant will change.
I can’t throw formulae around like you do, it’s far too long ago.
Take a day at Nellis afb in the Nevada desert, wait ’til Sunset & see how quickly it gets cold.
Then take roughly the same temps at Decimomannu on Sardinia about 10 miles from the coast. even on a clear night, it will take all night to cool. Of course it may be the tempering influence of the Med but that also indicates a difference in heat for the same temperature.
Of course I could have it all wrong but if one says nothing, one goes on believing something wrong instead of (re)learning.
DaveE
DaveE (12:40:06) :Then take roughly the same temps at Decimomannu on Sardinia about 10 miles from the coast. even on a clear night, it will take all night to cool. Of course it may be the tempering influence of the Med but that also indicates a difference in heat for the same temperature.
Yes the diurnal temperature will have greater variability in non-humid air but I think you’ll find that the daily average between humid and non humid is relatively close.
When you measure the temperature of any liquid you are measuring its average temperature regardless of whether or not it is a mixture. At worst, the variability in humidity only widens the confidence interval but is, of itself, not a show stopper.
In any case, temperature is a reasonable proxy for heat content provided the mixture is more or less unvarying. For all practical purposes, the Earth’s atmosphere content is stable enough. Extra heat increases the overall humidity wher possible, which is most places outside of the deserts.
Then there’s the problem of directly measuring the heat content. It’s something spacecraft probably wouldn’t be able to do. Even if it were feasible, what would you compare it to and what should be done with the long term temperature record? If the answer is “convert the temp record to heat content” then the implication is that temperature is a proxy for heat content. Yes?