UPDATE 1/28: Full text of Dr. Theon’s letter has been post on the Senate website and below.
This is something I thought I’d never see. This press release today is from the Senate EPW blog of Jame Inhofe. The scientist making the claims in the headline, Dr. John S. Theon, formerly of the Institute for Global Environmental Strategies, Arlington, Virginia, has a paper here in the AMS BAMS that you may also find interesting. Other papers are available here in Google Scholar. He also worked on the report of the Space Shuttle Challenger accident report and according to that document was a significant contributor to weather forecasting improvements:
The Space Shuttle Weather Forecasting Advisory Panel, chaired by Dr. John Theon, was established by NASA Headquarters to review existing weather support capabilities and plans and to recommend a course of action to the NSTS Program. Included on the panel were representatives from NASA, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), the Air Force, and the National Center for Atmospheric Research.
For those just joining the climate discussion, Dr. James Hansen is the chief climate scientist at NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS) and is the man who originally raised the alarm on global warming in 1988 in an appearance before congress. He is also the keeper of the most often cited climate data.
EPW press release below – Anthony
Washington DC, Jan 27th 2009: NASA warming scientist James Hansen, one of former Vice-President Al Gore’s closest allies in the promotion of man-made global warming fears, is being publicly rebuked by his former supervisor at NASA.
Retired senior NASA atmospheric scientist, Dr. John S. Theon, the former supervisor of James Hansen, NASA’s vocal man-made global warming fear soothsayer, has now publicly declared himself a skeptic and declared that Hansen “embarrassed NASA” with his alarming climate claims and said Hansen was “was never muzzled.” Theon joins the rapidly growing ranks of international scientists abandoning the promotion of man-made global warming fears.
“I appreciate the opportunity to add my name to those who disagree that global warming is man made,” Theon wrote to the Minority Office at the Environment and Public Works Committee on January 15, 2009. “I was, in effect, Hansen’s supervisor because I had to justify his funding, allocate his resources, and evaluate his results,” Theon, the former Chief of the Climate Processes Research Program at NASA Headquarters and former Chief of the Atmospheric Dynamics & Radiation Branch explained.
“Hansen was never muzzled even though he violated NASA’s official agency position on climate forecasting (i.e., we did not know enough to forecast climate change or mankind’s effect on it). Hansen thus embarrassed NASA by coming out with his claims of global warming in 1988 in his testimony before Congress,” Theon wrote. [Note: NASA scientist James Hansen has created worldwide media frenzy with his dire climate warning, his call for trials against those who dissent against man-made global warming fear, and his claims that he was allegedly muzzled by the Bush administration despite doing 1,400 on-the-job media interviews! – See: Don’t Panic Over Predictions of Climate Doom – Get the Facts on James Hansen – UK Register: Veteran climate scientist says ‘lock up the oil men’ – June 23, 2008 & UK Guardian: NASA scientist calls for putting oil firm chiefs on trial for ‘high crimes against humanity’ for spreading doubt about man-made global warming – June 23, 2008 ]
Theon declared “climate models are useless.” “My own belief concerning anthropogenic climate change is that the models do not realistically simulate the climate system because there are many very important sub-grid scale processes that the models either replicate poorly or completely omit,” Theon explained. “Furthermore, some scientists have manipulated the observed data to justify their model results. In doing so, they neither explain what they have modified in the observations, nor explain how they did it. They have resisted making their work transparent so that it can be replicated independently by other scientists. This is clearly contrary to how science should be done. Thus there is no rational justification for using climate model forecasts to determine public policy,” he added.
“As Chief of several of NASA Headquarters’ programs (1982-94), an SES position, I was responsible for all weather and climate research in the entire agency, including the research work by James Hansen, Roy Spencer, Joanne Simpson, and several hundred other scientists at NASA field centers, in academia, and in the private sector who worked on climate research,” Theon wrote of his career. “This required a thorough understanding of the state of the science. I have kept up with climate science since retiring by reading books and journal articles,” Theon added. (LINK) Theon also co-authored the book “Advances in Remote Sensing Retrieval Methods.” [Note: Theon joins many current and former NASA scientists in dissenting from man-made climate fears. A small sampling includes: Aerospace engineer and physicist Dr. Michael Griffin, the former top administrator of NASA, Atmospheric Scientist Dr. Joanne Simpson, the first woman in the world to receive a PhD in meteorology, and formerly of NASA, Geophysicist Dr. Phil Chapman, an astronautical engineer and former NASA astronaut, Award-Winning NASA Astronaut/Geologist and Moonwalker Jack Schmitt, Award-winning NASA Astronaut and Physicist Walter Cunningham of NASA’s Apollo 7, Chemist and Nuclear Engineer Robert DeFayette was formerly with NASA’s Plum Brook Reactor, Hungarian Ferenc Miskolczi, an atmospheric physicist with 30 years of experience and a former researcher with NASA’s Ames Research Center, Climatologist Dr. John Christy, Climatologist Dr. Roy W. Spencer, Atmospheric Scientist Ross Hays of NASA’s Columbia Scientific Balloon Facility]
Gore faces a much different scientific climate in 2009 than the one he faced in 2006 when his film “An Inconvenient Truth” was released. According to satellite data, the Earth has cooled since Gore’s film was released, Antarctic sea ice extent has grown to record levels, sea level rise has slowed, ocean temperatures have failed to warm, and more and more scientists have publicly declared their dissent from man-made climate fears as peer-reviewed studies continue to man-made counter warming fears. [See: Peer-Reviewed Study challenges ‘notion that human emissions are responsible for global warming’ & New Peer-Reviewed Scientific Studies Chill Global Warming Fears ]
“Vice President Gore and the other promoters of man-made climate fears endless claims that the “debate is over” appear to be ignoring scientific reality,” Senator James Inhofe, Ranking Member of the Environment & Public Works Committee.
A U.S. Senate Minority Report released in December 2008 details over 650 international scientists who are dissenting from man-made global warming fears promoted by the UN and yourself. Many of the scientists profiled are former UN IPCC scientists and former believers in man-made climate change that have reversed their views in recent years. The report continues to grow almost daily. We have just received a request from an Italian scientist, and a Czech scientist to join the 650 dissenting scientists report. A chemist from the U.S. Naval Academy is about to be added, and more Japanese scientists are dissenting. Finally, many more meteorologists will be added and another former UN IPCC scientist is about to be included. These scientists are openly rebelling against the climate orthodoxy promoted by Gore and the UN IPCC.
The prestigious International Geological Congress, dubbed the geologists’ equivalent of the Olympic Games, was held in Norway in August 2008 and prominently featured the voices of scientists skeptical of man-made global warming fears. Reports from the conference found that Skeptical scientists overwhelmed the meeting, with ‘2/3 of presenters and question-askers hostile to, even dismissive of, the UN IPCC’ ( See full reports here & here ] In addition, a 2008 canvass of more than 51,000 Canadian scientists revealed 68% disagree that global warming science is “settled.” A November 25, 2008, article in Politico noted that a “growing accumulation” of science is challenging warming fears, and added that the “science behind global warming may still be too shaky to warrant cap-and-trade legislation.” More evidence that the global warming fear machine is breaking down. Russian scientists “rejected the very idea that carbon dioxide may be responsible for global warming”. An American Physical Society editor conceded that a “considerable presence” of scientific skeptics exists. An International team of scientists countered the UN IPCC, declaring: “Nature, Not Human Activity, Rules the Climate”. India Issued a report challenging global warming fears. International Scientists demanded the UN IPCC “be called to account and cease its deceptive practices.”
The scientists and peer-reviewed studies countering climate claims are the key reason that the U.S. public has grown ever more skeptical of man-made climate doom predictions. [See: Global warming ranks dead last, 20 out of 20 in new Pew survey. Pew Survey: & Survey finds majority of U.S. Voters – ‘51% – now believe that humans are not the predominant cause of climate change’ – January 20, 2009 – Rasmussen Reports ]
The chorus of skeptical scientific voices grow louder in 2008 as a steady stream of peer-reviewed studies, analyses, real world data and inconvenient developments challenged the UN’s and former Vice President Al Gore’s claims that the “science is settled” and there is a “consensus.”
On a range of issues, 2008 proved to be challenging for the promoters of man-made climate fears. Promoters of anthropogenic warming fears endured the following: Global temperatures failing to warm; Peer-reviewed studies predicting a continued lack of warming; a failed attempt to revive the discredited “Hockey Stick“; inconvenient developments and studies regarding rising CO2; the Spotless Sun; Clouds; Antarctica; the Arctic; Greenland’s ice; Mount Kilimanjaro; Global sea ice; Causes of Hurricanes; Extreme Storms; Extinctions; Floods; Droughts; Ocean Acidification; Polar Bears; Extreme weather deaths; Frogs; lack of atmospheric dust; Malaria; the failure of oceans to warm and rise as predicted.
# # #
ORIGINAL FULL TEXT LETTER SENT VIA EMAILS:
From: Jtheon [mailto:jtheon@XXXXXXX]
Sent: Thursday, January 15, 2009 10:05 PM
To: Morano, Marc (EPW)
Sent: Tuesday, January 13, 2009 12:50 PM
To: Morano, Marc (EPW)
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My guess as to why Hansen wasn’t exposed earlier is because he was under-estimated and who could have known that powerful political forces would run with his theory. Face it, the science industry is filled with people who have whacky theories. Isn’t that the point of science, to coddle and probe every possibility? I imagine that Hansen was considered to be just another insecure, egocentric, imaginative scientist.
If Fox News and CNN, in the form of Lou Dobbs, pick up this story and highlight it, I can see the rest of the MSM being forced to address the issue. Not only that, but this is great drama. This is very, very marketable.
@ur momisugly G Alston
Interesting the “jobs” argument. I agree that Climate Change Catastrophism has become a self promoting machine with enough inertia to make it a permanent part of government.
Sad – thinking people would understand that the burden of AGW ‘remedies’ kills jobs and kills any potential for a manufacturing renaissance in the US.
Easy as one two three… First news report was one ship stuck in the St. Lawrence river. Second report was two (one the icebreaker sent to the rescue…)
http://www.canada.com/topics/news/national/story.html?id=1222717
while this one says three:
http://www.startribune.com/world/38455609.html
May not take all that long for the ‘message’ to get through… Now if we can just get NY harbor to freeze…
I too hope that this Theon statement makes a huge (appropriately huge) impact. However, we know (as with the Hockey Stick) how the alarmists can ignore the reality and go right on with the same old same old. And if I, or we, thought this was new, I just read this, by Colin McEvedy, in The New Penguin Atlas of Ancient History: “Worse than that, there is a reflex in favour of the status quo. When Flinders Petrie, an eminent Egyptologist if ever there was one, pointed out that Middle Egyptian Bronze Age implements were actually copper, you might expect his observations to cause something of a rethink. Not a bit of it: the official view is still that his remarks, though technically correct, are, in some wider sense, unhelpful, even confusing. That’s a tale from a fair while ago, but how about this, from the standard work on the Aegean Bronze Age published in the 1990’s: ‘For the sake of simplicity vessels which might be of copper or bronze are referred to as “bronze” throughout’. Wow!”
Ok he has the truth now does he have a good publicist? Is he going to be plugging a book soon?
I’m a cynical skeptic, and I would lay good money right now if he does not have a good publicist and a book coming out soon from a solid publisher, this will be the first and the last we will hear of Dr. John Theon.
Truth or no truth.
“Furthermore, some scientists have manipulated the observed data to justify their model results. In doing so, they neither explain what they have modified in the observations, nor explain how they did it. They have resisted making their work transparent so that it can be replicated independently by other scientists. This is clearly contrary to how science should be done. Thus there is no rational justification for using climate model forecasts to determine public policy,”
A true statement, after digging in the data, we all suspected it. This is a just damn, especially with all the information built up on sites like Anthony’s WUWT and others. When your former boss says this, it means much more than when some bloggers claims this to be the case. It is what it is, and we all know what that is.
To say the least it sheds new light on last weeks hysterical “new findings” in the Antarctic. It was a Gore setup.
IMHO — Open science is going to be the only way for climate science to recover from this worldwide hoax, if it ever can. People of the world deserve better than to be scammed by science and those who claim to practice the art.
I think that some of you guys are being a bit tough on Dr Theon. It takes real courage to speak out as he has, and we should compliment him on that and be thankful.
Considering the fiasco of a 2nd SC23 spot today, Theon is the light at the end of the tunnel.
SC24 is falling into quicksand.
Gore, Hansen & Hathaway have painted themselves hard into the corner.
Another year of this and thier onion will be nicely peeled.
The rest of the AGW crowd will be begging for Theon and his like to come forward to head the investigation into “How could this have happened?”.
E.M.Smith (17:47:18) :
Psi (16:46:50) :
“there are many very important sub-grid scale processes that the models either replicate poorly or completely omit…”
Can someone explain what this means?
Your elucidation is good, but still it does not hit the heart of the problem.
The methodology of general circulation models is wrong, because the weather/climate system depends on an extensive system of highly non linear coupled differential equations. This is what is meant by its being “chaotic”. This means that any gridding, no matter how small, ( how big the computer) will get it wrong after a a number of time-steps. This is because the logic of gridded models depends really on assuming linear approximations to highly non linear coupled differential equations. Anyone that has taken some mathematics analysis knows that functions can be expanded in series, and often the first few terms are good approximations. This is not true for solutions of coupled differential equations, because usually they are highly divergent, the first terms do not describe them. After a number of time steps reality will diverge with a vengeance from the assumed approximations. This happens for weather models in a few days, for climate in a few years.
There is no solution in throwing millions for larger computers. The only way to model climate is by using tools of chaos and complexity, a vigorously expanding research topic from biology to physics. ( See the Tsonis et al work I have referenced several times in these threads).
In general, I agree that at the moment it is the money that is giving the momentum for cap and trade. A lot of people smell a lot of money down the pike and they will fight tooth and nail to get at it. They will not be bothered with the facts, which is what has brought on the current economic downfall too.
PPV (17:46:54) :
The problem is the media, and not the scientists. It was never the scientists. There have always been far far more sceptical scientists that believer scientists. The AGW hoax cannot and will not be exposed until people takle the media. And the only way this will happen if political parties have the guts to stand up and threaten criminal action against the editors and journalists who have deliberately created this hoax.
No, the only way you remove the media bias from the equation is to buy them out while they’re struggling financially. I have been screaming this to the masses on various forums on the internet since the Chicago Tribune declared bankruptcy. This is an unprecedented opportunity to seize control of the media right now.
There is no criminal case against the media. Never will be.
Craig (17:42:46) :
While I agree with the arguements in this article and personally derive great pleasure from calling global warming supporters alarmists and fear mongers, etc., I can’t help but cringe at the biased style of writing chosen by the author.
That was my initial reaction as well, although part of me thinks the writing style is irrelevant. If it doesn’t fit the agenda, the MSM won’t pick up the story.
If it’s green, it leads.
I don’t know what to do with that, except I believe there will be a public confrontation one day and some wag will offer a priceless comment and the warmists will be unable to answer for the guffaws. Then it will be truly over.
“Lights=0!”
(And the audience explodes with laughter.)
There will be a “tipping point”, just not the one Hansen had hoped for, ……”Brother, can you paradigm?” ( from the department of redundancy department) :^)
(My best joke was snipped from both WUWT and Climate Audit . . . in my own best interests I am sure.)
“REPLY: I’ve asked for it, and got a response sayimg they’ll get it to me tomorrow when they get to the office (assuming they can make it through the snow and ice there). – Anthony ”
It would be nice to see the original from the man himself. I looked around for it, didn’t turn it up.
Hope it’s here tomorrow.
Thanks,
Since we are worried about our new President’s belief about global warming, I would like to say that better gas mileage is alright with me (that’s in the stimulus package). And better controls on pollution sources are a good thing. We used to have a coal stove in the ranch. The soot caked to the walls and inside the chimney. I imagine it caked to the inside of our lungs as well.
But more important, I would like to put in my two cents for banning men’s cologne. That stuff is worse than a three-day old chewed up cigar. And you could add commercial bathroom smell-dispensers to my list of banned substances. I did my part last week when I tore the dispenser off the wall of my favorite tavern and threw it in the garbage.
Very interesting and informative article by Dr. Theon.
May we expect to see it on the front page of the NY Times any time soon – with 3″ BANNER headlines?
One can but hope.
Hey Skipper (18:30:25) :
E.M. Smith:
You win the thread.
juan (19:11:51) :
E. M. Smith
Thank you for an explanation that we laymen can understand. Your example reminds me of Mark Twain’s comment that the coldest winter he ever lived through was a summer in San Francisco.
BLUSH!! Another ‘two-fer’ & Mentioned in the same breath as Twain!
I lived on a boat in SF bay for a couple of years. Any day of the year it can be 50F and dank. Finally sold the boat after mold ate a favorite WWII trench coat & a favorite book… (it would just randomly ‘take’ one object leaving the one next to it pristine. Very strange. Decided to move back ashore before I woke up moldy one day 😉
I’ve driven from SJC airport at 105F (50 miles south) to SF at 60F within 1 hour, then back to SJC and it was still 103F… So much for ‘local reference station method’ ! And I’ve been in SF when the fog rolls in and it drops 15F almost instantly.
FWIW, some long time ago I learned that ‘big words’ & jargon were handy some times, but mostly they hid more than they revealed. Shortly after that I learned that what they often hid was the ignorance or insecurity of the speaker.
Now I try to always reduce jargon and fluff and excessive vocabulary to the simplest residue of truth. It lets me keep a tidy mind (and it’s a lot easier to remember).
MC (19:32:19) :
I believe the reason Theon only now expresses his skeptisism is that he senses a social wave of non support for AGW. He senses that if he does not write about his true feelings he can be seen with egg on his face when the climate proves Hansen and Gore wrong. Distance and the truth is what he seeks to clear himself from the stupidity of manmade global warming.
I added a bit of bold.
Reminds me of the Sean Connery film “Rising Sun” “See how they distance themselves?” he says to kohai (Wesley Snipes) as the Japanese manager peer group and one level up in the board room physically move away from the ‘suspect’ who has brought loss of face to The Corporation…
What we are seeing is the beginning of ‘distancing themselves’. That his ex-boss has done it early now provides cover for anyone of lower rank and anyone higher up the food chain. One via an appeal to authority, they other through an appeal to new information… (“I never new until his ex-boss said so, or I would have said this sooner”) We will see ever more folks ‘distancing themselves’ … It can be as simple as saying “Gee, I have no opinion…” and the group near Hansen shrinks.
Pamela: Are you really looking forward to Prius powered vehicles towing trailers down Rattlesnake Grade?
A little OT.
I wanted to send a link to this article to the Whitehouse.
It seems that the comments@whitehouse.gov link has been removed from
The White House
If the link is still there I can’t find it.
Guess they grew tired of public feedback.
Colin McEvedy
Mac has always been one of my favorites.
Robert Bateman (20:23:30) :
The new SC23 spot is just barely visible on a SOHO image […]
That makes 2 SC23’s in 1 month. Does this shoot a hole in SC24 minimum of Sept/0ct 08?
TSI may have begun its slow climb back up:
http://www.leif.org/research/TSI-SORCE-2006-now.png
The green curve is a quadratic fit. The green triangle [at day number 229 = Aug. 16th, 2008] ] marks the ‘minimum’ of the fitted curve.
Marc Moreno is more to blame for the caustic aftertaste of the article than Dr. Theron. He is better known for his eye gouging and poking than for his adherence to the finer rules of parliamentary decorum. Then again he is a staffer for a Republican from an oil state who might find it somewhat difficult to heard otherwise.
Drudge sometimes runs Moreno’s stories though. I suspect that Drudge is bit of a skeptic, so I’ll be watching. His showcase get pretty wide distribution.
Better make sure it’s a “certain” (“The letter”) before coming to more conclusions.. it could be a “plant” LOL. It appears to be quite genuine. I don’t think a US senator would post this unless it a was a certainty. Maybe someone should write directly to Dr Theon…
Maybe if warmist realized that the only quibble we have with them is the CO2 story. In most other environmental issues we probably see eye to eye (I do anyway). Too many people, too much concrete, plastic bags, waste, yes even pollution ect?
I’m tired of all this… Has someone else noted that that the main “scientific” opposition to the AGW theory is made of op-eds and vague declarations?
I’m still waiting for a paper showing in a coherent and (loosely) proved way that something else could be responsible for the observed warming… Svensmark? He’s still spending his millions of public-funded euros to try and prove his theory, for which we don’t even know how much would be the impact on climate. Gerlich and Teuschner? Their 2-years old “paper” is still not published. So, what else?
In my opinion, the evolution of the American opinion is simply a proof that lobbying works..