Misguided thinking: All time low temperature record for Illinois called into question by NWS citing lack of confidence in equipment. "ASOS better than AWOS"

http://www3.verticalgateway.com/portals/12/rotornews/aug%2008/awos.jpg

ASOS (left) AWOS (right) – both at airports click for larger images

People send me stuff. Last night I got an email from reader Andrew Schut that said:

See public information statement below.  I’m perplexed.

ASOS was put in for “aviation purposes” given its tolerances, yet we use it for climate purposes, why should AWOS be any different?

Not to mention the sensor that AWOS uses is a Vaisala sensor and at least a decade ahead in terms of sensor technology compared to the prehistoric 1088 RTD thermistor that the NWS has been using since the mid 80’s.

What Andrew was referring to was this unusual public information statement from the National Weather Service in Chicago, nullifying an apparently new low statewide temperature record from Rochelle Illinois:

PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO IL

432 PM CST FRI JAN 16 2009

…REGARDING ROCHELLE`S LOW TEMPERATURE THIS MORNING…

THE AUTOMATED WEATHER OBSERVING SYSTEM (AWOS) AT THE ROCHELLE

AIRPORT RECORDED A TEMPERATURE OF -36F AT 745 AM THIS MORNING.

WHILE THE THERMOMETER ON THE AWOS WAS RE-CALIBRATED YESTERDAY

AND MAY INDEED BE ACCURATE…AWOS OBSERVATIONS ARE NOT QUALITY

CONTROLLED OR CALIBRATED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AND

ARE ALSO NOT DESIGNED FOR CLIMATE PURPOSES.

THEREFORE…THE STATE CLIMATOLOGIST DOES NOT CONSIDER THIS

TEMPERATURE AN OFFICIAL MEASUREMENT FOR THE PURPOSE OF

DETERMINING WHETHER OR NOT AN ALL TIME RECORD LOW FOR THE

STATE WAS REACHED. FOR THE PURPOSE OF DETERMINING RECORD

TEMPERATURES FOR THE STATE…ONLY ASOS AND

COOPERATIVE OBSERVER OBSERVATIONS WILL BE USED SINCE BOTH OF

THESE OBSERVATIONS ARE QUALITY CONTROLLED BY THE

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

See the original here. Personally, I don’t think airports are a suitable place for ANY climate measurements to be made. Here is why.

Airports are dynamic environments, with changes in air traffic, runway upgrades, new runways, new terminals, more tarmac/access roads, and increased infrastructure in general over time. For the NWS in Chicago to say that one ASOS at one airport is somehow better that an AWOS at another, particularly one calibrated the day before, is simply disingenuous. Throw them both out I say. Airports aren’t “quality controlled” for station siting changes. The claim that ASOS is somehow thus better than AWOS is simply ludicrous. There is no basis for this claim.

Let’s look at some examples of ASOS climate stations and the type of quality control that goes on:

First the issue of encroachment by infrastructure, here’s a new fire station going up next to an ASOS station (which is a USHCN climate station) in Lafayette, LA, I believe the station to the lower right is an older AWOS station:

Click for a larger interactive image

Of course it didn’t always used to be this way, the Google Earth image, which is a bit older, shows the area before the construction started:

Click for a larger interactive image

A call to the LFT airport authority at this contact from their website told me that the contract for the new fire station facility was awarded in July of 2005 and that construction started shortly after that. The new fire station, show being constructed in the top photo is now complete.

Reader Davis Smith writes:

Fifteen miles north of the Lafayette airport is another temperature site named Grand Coteau. It seems reasonable to expect the two to have similar trends (using GISS adjusted data) due to their proximity. A comparison of the two for recent years is here :

Click for larger image

Looks like a divergence circa 2004.

Ok that’s just one example. How about then the issues with the ASOS station in Reno, NV, that the NWS had to move because they didn’t agree with the readings it gave? NOAA uses Reno’s placement problems as an example in a training manual for climate monitoring COOP managers.

See NOAA Professional Competency Unit 6

What was amazing is that the NWS determined that there were significant problems with this USHCN ASOS station placement at the Reno Airport  that contributed a significant warming bias to the record.

From that manual:

Reno’s busy urban airport has seen the growth of an urban heat bubble on its north end.

The corresponding graph of mean annual minimum temperature (average of 365 nighttime

minimums each year) has as a consequence been steadily rising. When the new

ASOS sensor was installed, the site was moved to the much cooler south end of the

runway. Nearby records indicate that the two cool post-ASOS years should have been

warmer rather than cooler. When air traffic controllers asked for a location not so close

to nearby trees (for better wind readings), the station was moved back. The first move

was documented, the second was not. The climate record shows both the steady warming

of the site, as well as the big difference in overnight temperature between one end of this

flat and seemingly homogeneous setting, an observation borne out by automobile

traverses around the airport at night.

They were also kind enough to provide a photo essay of their own as well as a graph. You can click the aerial photo to get a Google Earth interactive view of the area.

reno-nv-asos-relocation.jpg

This is NOAA’s graph showing the changes to the official climate record when they made station moves:

reno-nv-asos-station-moves-plot.png

Here is what a surface temperature transect of Reno looks like, I did this one myself:

Click for larger image, note that the airport is in the middle of the UHI bubble.

Russ Steele did a comparison as a guest post here of the data from the Reno ASOS USHCN station to a RAWS station run by the Forest Service a few miles away and writes:

Last year, I found a Remote Automated Weather Station operated by the Forest Service at Desert Springs that is 11.28 miles due north of the Reno Airport, in a remote area well away from urban influences. The annual temperature in desert far from urban influence in 2007 was 52.54 F, which was 2.8 F below the Airport ASOS just eleven miles away. As you can see this site is quite remote.

Desert_springs

Desert Springs, click for larger image.

Here is a plot from last year comparing the Desert Springs and Reno ASOS.

Reno_DS-RAWS

But location and encroachments within the airport aren’t the only issues with ASOS, there is the ASOS temperature sensor itself, which has been shown to be inaccurate. There’s the famous HO83 temperature-dewpoint sensor, a product of  “lowest bidder” engineering.

Hygrothermometer
HO83 ASOS Hygrothermometer

(temperature/dewpoint sensor)

The HO-83 is know to have a warm bias between 0.5C to 0.7C. as shown here.

Ho83h7

The most famous problem occurred in Tucson, AZ in the  mid 1980’s where a malfunctioning HO83 unit created dozens of new high temperature records for the city, even though surrounding areas had no such measured extremes. Unfortunately those new high temperature records including the all time high of 117 degrees F, became part of the official climate record and still stand today. Here is a New York Times article that highlights the problem and a research paper from Kessler et al outlining similar problems in Albany New York as well as Tucson.

One of the biggest problems was that the early design of the HO83 allowed exhaust air (warmed by the warm side of Peltier chip) to recirculate from the mushroom shaped cap down the sides of the chamber, and back into the air inlet at the bottom. The problem was solved a few years later by the addition of a metal skirt which deflects the exhaust air.

ho83-original-modified.png

Unfortunately, even though NOAA has modernization plans in place for the ASOS network, there are still some of the original designs that remain in operation today, such as this USHCN station which is the official climate station of record for New Orleans:

NOLA_H083_closeup

Photo from sufracestations.org volunteer Fred Perkins 8/25/07 click for larger photo.

Thus, the HO83 induced bias first noted in the mid 1980’s continues in the surface temperature record even today.

While only 5% of the USHCN network is ASOS, the biases produced by the HO83 are quite large, and there appears to be no adjustments to remove the bias. Since determining the individual maintenance records and biases of each ASOS station would be a significant task, the simplest solution would be to remove all ASOS stations from the USHCN record set.

But the most damning evidence that ASOS stations are probably lwarmer biased than AWOS stations comes from this internal NOAA technical paper on May 29th, 2001, from Brian Fehrn of the NWS office in Elko, NV who did a year long side by side comparison of an ASOS station being installed just 500 feet away from an AWOS station being decommissioned.

Here, courtesy Russ Steele, is a photo of the Elko ASOS station, which happens also to be a USHCN climate station of record:

Fehrn’s  table of monthly data tells the story pretty well:

Figure 1

Average Temp
Months
ASOS
AWOS
September 57.80 55.80
October 47.61 45.60
November 40.72 39.33
December* 27.06 25.94
January 30.85 29.97
February 36.79 35.95
March 37.68 37.27
April 48.78 48.38
May 54.63 53.58
June 63.87 61.72
July** 69.04 66.18
August*** 69.58 67.06
Note: *ASOS Data fro mthe 5th through 9th and the 31st are missing

**ASOS Data from the 19th are missing

***ASOS Data from the 9th, 10th, 14th, 23rd, and 24th are missing

His conclusion says it all, emphasis mine:

While this study encompasses only a year, the data seem to indicate the uncommissioned ASOS records warmer temperatures than the AWOS. With recent reports and concerns about global warming, it is of note that this comparison of “unofficial” data to the official observations show that instrumentation located only a couple hundred yards apart can give a notable temperature discrepance. It is not the purpose of this study to determine what causes the Elko ASOS to record warmer temperatures than the AWOS. The main message is it appears the ASOS will probably record higher temperature values than the AWOS once the ASOS is commissioned and becomes the official site. This study should prove beneficial to forecasters once the ASOS becomes the official temperature site. Forecasters will be aware of the average temperature discrepancy and, if all other factors remain equal, it is quite possible that Elko may experience a rise in the overall temperature over time when the ASOS is used as the official data for Elko, Nevada.

So when we see public information statements like the one yesterday from the National Weather Service telling us that the ASOS system is more acceptable that an AWOS system calibrated just the day before, I’m quite comfortable in calling BS on that statement.

We shouldn’t measure climate data at airports with aviation instruments, period.

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Andrew
January 20, 2009 7:07 am

Chuck in Austin,
You are asking the wrong question, “scientifically.” The question shouldn’t be ‘who do I trust’? That is not scientific. The question should always be ‘what does the data say?’
Until we can say ‘this is the data’ and everyone (who currently disagree) agree and records it as history, starting today, we have no knowledge to build on.
Andrew

John Cooper
January 20, 2009 7:10 am

To translate those METARS (using the last one as an example):
METAR = Aviation Weather Observation (Don’t ask, it’s French)
KRPJ = Station Identification, Rochelle, IL
16150Z = The date and time (16th, 1505 Universal time = 0905 CST)
AUTO = Automatic weather station with no human involvement
23005KT = Wind direction and speed (from 230 degrees, 05 Knots)
10SM = Visibility (10 statute miles)
CLR = Sky Conditions (Clear, in this case)
M35/M39 = Temperature/Dewpoint in degrees C to the nearest degree (-35/- 39) {the “M” signifies “Minus”}
A3070 = Altimeter setting (30.70 Inches Hg) {what the barometric pressure would be if the airport were at sea level}
RMK AO2 = Remark: Weather station type AO2, which has a more sophisticated precipitation discriminator which can tell the difference between rain and snow, etc.
T13531394 = Temperature/Dewpoint to the tenth of a degree C (-35.3/-39.4 {the “1” in front signifies “minus”, don’t ask me why they just don’t use a minus sign}

January 20, 2009 7:51 am

A REQUEST
Hi. Though it may not be easy to spot my comment among this huge number of other comments on this blog, I would like to ask you whether there exists a social study based on the following (or very similar) method::
1. Let S be a set of temperature readings.
2. Redistribute S in a group of scientists for them to analyze the temperatures. Let their findings and conclusions be named “Findings+”.
3. Invert all temperature values in S using the function f(x)=(K-x), where ‘x’ is the temperature and K is a constant. This produces dataset Sinv.
4. Redistribute Sinv in the same group of scientists for them to analyze the temperatures. Let their findings and conclusions be named “Findings-“.
5. Finally, compare “Findings+” with “Findings-“: For all data points D in S: Let P(D) be a property attributed to the data point D and Pinv(D) be the expected “inverted meaning of P(D)”. Then, if “Findings+” contains P(D), “Findings-” should contain Pinv(D).
From the comparison we should be able to determine whether scientific findings are either biased toward higher/lower temperatures or are unbiased.
Exists there a scientific article which uses such a method?

Jim Angel
January 20, 2009 8:13 am

Thanks for posting the METARs, Gilbert.
Another thing to consider in this discussion is that the AWOS sensor was design to operate reliably in the range of -31F to 131F (according to a Vaisala brochure I have). The ASOS sensor was design to operate in the range of -80F to 130F, according to the NWS ASOS site. So that raises another interesting issue – should we rely on AWOS for record cold temperatures outside it’s normal operating range?
Furthermore, while we wish the level of uncertainty in any measurement system is fixed with respect to temperature, in reality it can increase as you get out on the temperature extremes. This makes it even more challenging for determining state records.
Overall, if you set aside charges of political motives and the like, determining state records in a non-trivial exercise and an interesting climate/meteorology problem in itself.
Jim Angel

Wondering Aloud
January 20, 2009 8:16 am

Excellent work Jim Angel and good explanations all. Thank you

Andrew
January 20, 2009 8:20 am

I thought of this analogy this morning:
Andrew asks his girlfriend Mona Lisa to pose for a portrait on Jan 1, 2009. He uses a pencil and a piece of paper only. She sits for him, he sketches, and its fantastic. So much so, Andrew states:
“This sketch is perfect”
He puts the sketch on the table in his basement and it sits there.
A month later, Feb 1st, 2009, he has a party at his house and people convene in his basement. Andrew’s friend Alfred sees the painting and says:
“That painting is perfect! Except Mona Lisa’s forehead is too big”
Andrew says: “No it isn’t, I should know how big my own girlfriend’s forehead is.” 😉
So we have a problem. How do we know who is right? Is it Andrew or Alfred?
The only way to tell who is right is to go find Mona Lisa and look at her forehead again and compare it to the sketch. To correct the problem with the sketch, we now need to go find an eraser too. I didn’t make the sketch with all the tools I would eventually need to be right in Feb 1st 2009, cause I didn’t know I would need them. The sketch I made was wrong. In any case, the statement
“This sketch is perfect” from Jan, 1 2009, is wrong.
I should never make such a statement, given the current understanding.
Anyone who ever says, “The science is in…” is wrong.
AGW will always be wrong, unless in the future someone understands the earth and every thing that happens in it. Right now, It’s too big a claim on it’s face.
Temperature is really a local issue someone is trying to make bigger than it really is. Local measurements are for local results. That’s why it is vital that we get good measurements as often as possible, wherever possible, and record them as history.
Andrew ♫

Andrew
January 20, 2009 8:43 am

Sorry, the “painting” is “supposed” to be the “sketch” that Alfred sees. 😉
Andrew ♫

beng
January 20, 2009 9:27 am

Jim Angel, there weren’t any other reliable instruments that could be used to confirm the readings?
Even I have 2 thermometers outside the house. 🙂

Jim Angel
January 20, 2009 10:34 am

Anthony, my apology – my comment about political charges was referring to some comments posted here and elsewhere and the email that I have gotten. Your post and follow ups were free of it (and I appreciate that). Sorry for the misunderstanding.
To be honest, I did not know the specific temperature range of the AWOS until doing research on it yesterday. However, my general mistrust of AWOS in IL was based beforehand on years of experience with reports on both end of the temperature spectrum. I have no control or input into the siting, Q/C, maintenance, or archiving of the data. On the other hand, I should say that I was pleasantly surprised by the response of the airport operator and the vendor in this particular case.
One more thing on the Rochelle AWOS, Anthony. I talked to the airport manager today (Jan 20) and he said they replaced the temperature sensor last Thursday as well as calibrated it. Of course by that time, it had warmed up to -12F or so. So I still don’t know how it would perform at the -30 to -40F range.
As far as ASOS goes, yeah, I’m familiar with the sensor changes, undocumented moves, questionable exposure, etc. In fact, we have a running battle with the local media wanting to use the nearby ASOS site at the airport (KCMI) to break records set by our 120 year-old coop station in town (118470). I generally avoid ASOS sites for climate change studies. However, sometimes they are the only game in town with respect to historical records of winds, dewpoint, precipitation type, etc. I always try to warn people when they use those records.
To beng – yes, I wish there was another reliable instrument on site to confirm the observation. The downside to relying on automated systems is that there is no trained observer that you call and send out with the ol’ sling psychrometer.
Jim Angel

E.M.Smith
Editor
January 20, 2009 6:30 pm

Jim Angel (08:13:13) :
Another thing to consider in this discussion is that the AWOS sensor was design to operate reliably in the range of -31F to 131F (according to a Vaisala brochure I have).

Hmmm. Thanks Jim. So all the AWOS sites are suspect for any reading below -31F and are at best in an uncalibrated non-linear range. While the Canadian Clippers are running down to -50F in some places (per whatever reported those temps…).
Do we know if they are prone to over, under, or random report when out of range? And do we know what Canada uses?
What I’m thinking about is the impact of having dodgy ‘lows’ averaged in with highs. If it’s a random non-calibrate it ought to sort of wash averaged over enough sites. If it’s ‘runaway low’ then the bunch of record lows becomes suspect. If it’s ‘fail to track lower and report high’, well that would show ‘global warming’ anytime real temps went record low; given the average h/l method. Is there anyway to characterize the probable impact of the error induced at below -31F?
How big a percentage of GISS is AWOS? Is there a geographical bias for or against very cold places? (We don’t do below in coastal California 😎 so it doesn’t matter here…)
Somehow more ‘settled science’ is decidedly unsettling.

tinyH
January 21, 2009 5:43 am

Another side light regarding the 1088 temperature/dewpoint sensor in ASOS…
Even though the new DTS1 dewpoint/RH sensor is used in sensing the air stream…the Peltier cooler in the 1088 is still powered up, and dissipating heat, keeping the mirror cooled in the 1088 sensor package. This is from a NWS ET… So, the heat source in the 1088 temperature sensor assembly has not been turned off…
tiny…

Sekerob
January 21, 2009 12:08 pm

Is this survey project an effort in futility, a canard, a duck long migrated to other less GW effected areas of the globe. Were the geese hit by flight 1539 whilst in V formation at 3200 feet flying north or south, what type and were they late, an other natural sign of global warming?
What happened to all the John Van Vliet aka John V. messages / discussions here that i have trouble finding back. Certainly google time machine hasnot forgotten them and bloggers refering to other blogshave not such as http://bigcitylib.blogspot.com/2008/09/decline-and-fall-of-surface-stations.htm
WotSoUp with this project. Is this a science blog or a collection of from the hip PE shooting?
REPLY: What that article from the “unbiased” champion of science “BigCityLib” does not mention is that JohnV did the analysis without any notice to me, terribly prematurely, before the project had even reached 30% of the nation in surveys. As a result, only 17 stations were used in the USA analysis that represented the “best” CRN1 and CRN2 stations. The geographic distribution was clustered and not representative of the entire USA network.
If I had done the same thing, given the few stations used, and shown a difference, I would have been vilified for using incomplete data and coming to a conclusion prematurely. This is why I have not done an analysis yet, only a running census of stations.
Thus, I’m working hard to get the majority of the USA surveyed so that a correct analysis CAN be done, rather than a hurried one for the purposes of denigrating the project before a majority can be completed.
But that obviously doesn’t matter to people like yourself that repeat this story again and again without bothering to look at what was done.
But, since you didn’t do your homework, and it is clear from your snark level, that you have no interest correct methodology, your criticism falls flat. – Anthony

Andy Schut
January 21, 2009 6:39 pm

Jim,
Thanks for your explanation and providing us more back ground on the sensor. You could say I’m the one “to blame” for providing Anthony with checking out this question of the AWOS reading.
I am surprised that the operating range of the AWOS sensor is -31F. I wonder if the newer Vaisala sensors they are putting into AWOS (HMP45D?) is adequate to -40F/C. Someone reading this post may know the answer to that.
My understanding with the current ASOS system is that the 1088 hygrothermometer is still used for temperature measurement and the mirror is still maintained and used as a backup dewpoint sensor. The Vaisala DTS sensor (a variant of the HMP 233) is now used as the primary dewpoint sensor and has been shown to be much more reliable (for the most part) than a chilled mirror system is out in the field. I believe this is the case at most ASOS sites, although there may still be some ASOS sites (second and third order stations) which are using the chilled mirror for obtaining dewpoint.

February 3, 2009 2:44 pm

I agree with Jeff L here, and appreciate the links.
We shouldn’t measure climate data at airports with aviation instruments, period.
That’s perfect. What a great, “duh” summary to tie things up at the end of such a great post too. It’s hilarious because the statement’s truth is clearly provable, yet this is non-obvious to the people hired specifically to know these things. That, or intentionally ignored for some budgetary or political agenda.
Science ≠ politics, we’re much poorer when they’re confused.