Voting closed TODAY Jan 13 at 5PM Eastern, 2PM Pacific time.
Preliminary ending numbers are available here
Thanks to everyone who participated. The results won’t be final until reviewed by the judges/operators. Now back to our regularly scheduled programming. – Anthony
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It’s the freaking “weblog awards” not something important like local dogcatcher. It’s exactly this sort of passive-aggressive melodrama — where you’re constantly on the look-out for the slightest transgression of arbitrary civility so you can shout “Gotcha!” and declare some sort of victory in the argument — that PZ is railing against in that post.
anna v: right on!
More “Global Warming” in Michigan today:
“Residents of Michigan’s Lower Peninsula dug out from a weekend winter storm that dumped up to 8 inches of snow on the area. But forecasters said more snow and the coldest temperatures of the season were still to come…The temperature is expected to fall to around 13 (F) by 5 p.m. and to around 7 (F) by Wednesday morning… The weather service said even colder weather was headed for the western Upper Peninsula on Thursday and Friday, when wind chills could drop to 30 below to 35 below zero (F). ”
If consensus rules, then it won’t take much more of this for that consensus to build in a big way. Pity we are having such balmy weather in Los Angeles – set a record high for the date yesterday at 88 (F).
Roger E. Sowell
Marina del Rey, California
cookie — I am not sure why so many are bothering to entertain Nichole the troll…
Target practice?
Well, it doesn’t look like PZ Myers’ putsch is going to work.
He will lose by over 1500 votes. Unless he or one of his [snip] cheats. Can’t count that out.
The best part is that, in losing, he showed his true colors and exposed himself for the [snip] that he is.
Did you ever watch the Television program called “Connections”? It showed how a large number of apparently unrelated developments, discoveries, and viewpoints led to a chain of events resulting in major discoveries that changed our world.
Many or the industrial age’s great discoveries were developed by people who had no formal education in the field, but were active life time learners in the technology of the day. Some were kitchen table experimenters, some were well educated clerics or from the wealthy elite, others were entirely self taught.
In spite of that they built bridges, devised ways to bore tunnels under rivers, perfected and invented new machines. Sometimes they did that by asking the questions that the formally educated knew there was no need to ask. Sometimes like Einstein they looked at things in a new way by asking questions framed in a new context.
Sometimes the most effective peer review, is to try to answer the question of a novice who is not contaminated by the biases of the day. I know that I have learned many things answering questions from students I was teaching. In many cases I found that you don’t really understand a question unless I can explain it to someone who is not skilled in the art, in a technically accurate but clear manner.
The Wright brothers developed the powered airplane by doing good engineering and experimentation, with no formal education in engineering or the sciences yet they solved aerodynamic problems that others could not, by a methodical process of experimentation. (ie the scientific method)
One of the things I find most disturbing about the recent trend in climate change debate, is the very dangerous assumption that if you do not have a degree in a specific field, you cannot possibly understand or contribute to the discussion.
Continental drift was discounted by the Peer reviewed journals and experts in the field when it was first proposed. The same can be said of other major discoveries.
The process of debating the subject drives all of us to investigate for our selves to the limits of our understanding and education the arguments. In the process we assemble a puzzle of little pieces.
For example in many of these comments I discover sources that I would never stumble across in a 100 years of web surfing. As a group, we comb through information and bring what appears to be useful or at least thought provoking to a central location where others of similar interest might find it and examine it. Sometimes a reference gets shot full of logical holes, other times it spurs a contribution from an unexpected point of view that leads people off in a new and interesting direction.
At the very worst it is intellectually stimulating, and educational. At the best even the non-technical contributors might through an off hand comment or observation, lead one of the other investigators to a new line of investigation they had not thought of before or a new way of looking at old data.
More importantly, it leads to an informed citizen who is better able to evaluate information in the public domain and that ultimately leads to a better democracy as a more informed public tends to make better decisions on issues.
If you delve into a little history of science and technology, most of the principles we take for granted today, were dismissed as nonsense by the most highly educated specialists of the day when they were first proposed. Likewise there have been some major “discoveries” that sounded good until people started asking questions, and have faded away as quickly as they appeared.
Sometimes the things we believe are “proven” are more a case of getting the right answer for the wrong reasons. The resulting blind spot to examination frequently leads to long delays in progress as the formally educated are indoctrinated to ignore small inconsistencies or paradoxes and blindly pursue dead end research as they refuse to step back and ask them selves “what do I really know?”, and “what are my assumptions that may or may not be valid?”.
An axiom I picked up years ago, is “do not hold an idea responsible for its source, judge it on its merits”.
Many years ago I worked in an office machine repair job. We had a machine that suddenly stopped working and was driving the tech nuts, as everything checked out but it would not work. He spent hours measuring resistances, checking fuses, tracing wires. He forgot to ask himself what he really knew. He knew there was power at the wall socket, so he assumed that power was getting to the circuits of the machine, and proceed to troubleshoot all the major systems. Finally someone asked him, “did you check that there was power at the power supply?”. His answer was that he had checked the power plug and he had power.
The problem was, he was drawing a false conclusion based on that bit of data. When he finally agreed to test the power at the other end of the power cord he found it was dead. Someone had tripped over the power cord and had jerked one connection loose inside the power plug.
Many of us feel the hypothesis that CO2 is the driver of global climate and temperature is like that test of the power at the wall plug.
Yes CO2 is a green house gas, and if you assume that if you double CO2 and that the green house warming you attribute to CO2 also doubles, lots of bad things will happen.
BUT — what if the physics do not support that assumption? What about the possibility that CO2 has already contributed almost all the warming it is physically possible to provide, and has already nearly closed its IR absorption window. If that is true the whole premise of CO2 driven global warming falls apart.
What if CO2 increase is a trailing indicator of temperature rise rather than the cause of temperature rise?
What if the sun has some to this point unknown means of transferring energy to the earth other than its direct irradiation ? Perhaps the buffeting of the earths magnetic field by the solar wind pumps large electrical currents into the earth and its atmosphere? What if its somehow modifies the absorption of the radiation it gives off by effecting cloud formation ?
Larry
dKap, fans of such people either overlook or encourage jack booted totalitarian fascism. After all, such a person is your friend when they’re on your side (same with lawyers and police officers), but really annoying when they’re not.
And as for feeding the trolls? It keeps them here instead of calling all their family and friends to get votes that they claim not to care about… 🙂
@ur momisugly Roger Sowell
Climate v. Weather
Weather is a data point.
Benjamin P. says:
“Respectfully, CO2 is a potent greenhouse gas (Physics tells us that) and doubling it would have a profound effect”
What does physics actually tell us about CO2 absorption of infrared radiation (badly termed as the greenhouse effect). CO2 absorbs in three distinct and rather narrow bands. Two of these bands match up with the broader strong absorption bands of water vapor so any so called greenhouse effect is primarily due to the one remaining absorption band which does not align with the absorption spectrum of water. The absorption effect of CO2 is also logarithmic, not linear. A doubling of CO2 does not lead to a doubling of infrared energy absorption. Theoretically, a doubling of CO2 concentration from present atmospheric concentration will increase the global temperature by about 1 degree F. Climate modelers show much higher temperature increases for CO2 doubling by assuming positive feedback. The levels of positive feedback assumed are not based on good science and seem to be derived in order to make the models fit the historical data. The historical data itself is in dispute. My conclusion is physics in no way tells us that doubling of CO2 will have a profound effect. If we look at paleolithic levels of CO2 which have been many times higher than the present level of CO2, we know that there cannot be a strong positive feedback effect because a strong feedback would lead to an unstable climate system and we would not be here today.
WUWT still 1834 ahead with 27 mins to go. All over bar the shouting I reckon.
Congratulations to Anthony and all contributors at Watts Up With That.
Last year Climate Audit achieved a notable success for serious science.
This year WUWT has scored a notable success for accessible science.
The forces of reason, logic, openness and good sense are in the ascendant.
Who knows, next year we may be getting articles regularlarly posted in a prominent liberal blog (like HuffPo 🙂 and rooting for them in the political category.
For now, we can enjoy watching the pharyngitees whine themselves hoarse.
I have a feeling we’ll have some strays washing up here soon enough.
For those who have visited us to put their view, bring it on! Always good to hone our skills and we never tire of real debate.
It ain’t over till its over…
Well, I took a look at pharyngula. Not really a science site, best I could tell.
Personally, I think bloggers are the new editorialists, and they will–one by one–supplant with op-ed staffs of established papers.
I read WUWT really for straight climate science, hopefully thoughtful and impartial. If the data supports global warming, that’s fine. If it refutes it, that’s fine, too. What I want is information; let the data provide the spin.
It’ s a great site, by the way. I check it almost daily.
Nichole, somewhere way up thread (things are moving fast here) you stated re Iraq:
“like hussein was a bad guy for twenty years, and some jerk from a different country had to smack us with a couple of planes before we had the political impetus to take his ass down. and now everybody’s concentrating on the WMDs, or lack thereof, and regretting doing something that probably actually had to be done. i would say that our reason for invading iraq was just as relevant as the cause of global warming. hopefully, it’ll all work out in the end.”
Bear with me please, coz I am seriously interested in your logic. So we have a bad guy in Iraq. So how is it that the best way to deal with that bad guy is to invade his country, destroy most of the infrastructure, directly and indirectly lead to the deaths of over 4000 US soldiers, and perhaps 1,000,000 Iraquis (most of whom were being persecuted by the bad guy), huge numbers of traumatised and injured soldiers and general population of Iraq. Surely a better answer is to use the International Justice system to bring him to account? Shouldn’t we be focussed on getting the International Justice system to function effectively. Seems to me that you must be a US citizen to seriously consider that the violent approach used is preferable to a reasoned, rational, civilised approach employing effective justice.
Science, 14,096
Invective, 12,200
OMG james gets it!!!
the opinion of the scientific community, which is more educated and specialized is > the opinion of the unwashed masses!!!
ding ding ding ding!
and when we get that solar array at the shop here you’ll have solar powered HELICOPTERS!! built by solar power, anyways!! and everyone knows, helicopter > tank!
and what about finding eco-friendly policies? economical + ecological, that is. what’s wrong with that? why would you want to cast doubt on it? that’s the only suicidal policy i see.
and thanks, peden. alliteration is much more so my forte than meteorology. i ain’ t trying to lecture you, but a little information is a dangerous thing. let’s not give anything that can be misconstrued to the les johnsons of the world, hm? they call them “low information voters” for a reason.
lothar: your
The wiki article includes references if you have not noticed already.
It does not use accurate references when it is making editorial comments about so called skeptics. The links to the so called references are often dead ends or just contain no reference related to the subject.
@Benjamin P
I don’t know what the earth’s normal temperature is and that is something you need to know before you can talk sensibly about how much of a problem warming or cooling is. It appears that at best the AGW proponents picked a particular year or day in the late 20th century and said this is the norm against which all is measured.
As a method to measure if the earth is warming or cooling that is fine. But as a method of determining if the warming or cooling is a problem it doesn’t work at all. After all if the current temperatures are below normal and are still going up to what the earths baseline should be then taking action to stop or slow it is not only premature but contraindicated. If on the other hand we are way over the norm then there might be a problem. See climate science hasn’t even had this discussion so at best they can tell us the current trend warmer or cooler … maybe. I note that their models have been having a wee small problem the last 10 years or so.
The second part of that is how bad are the results of the warming. Well the current proponents are AGW are predicting the worst case scenario’s as the only thing that can happen. We again come back to the fact that actual behavior of the system may be far different and far less. I personally expect that the results would be somewhere between the best case and worse case scenario probably close to the best case side.
Given both of the above issues acting now to do something on the precautionary principal C.F. is not only over reacting it is actively foolish. Since we don’t even have a good grasp of what is actually going on taking active action to interfere is criminal and could cause serious harm to the earth, humans and the general environment.
Is some action warrented? Maybe, certainly there is nothing wrong with a good basic conservation approach to your local environment and personal actions. Should we enforce draconian measures just in case? No that can only lead to harm and not good.
WUWT 14,123
Pharyngula 12,222
More than 1,900 ahead 7 minutes before end…..
@ur momisugly mondo:
clearly the war in iraq was poorly executed. we had a poor executive branch, mentally poor anyways. what did you expect?
how long has it been since the first gulf war? the peace treaty which included allowing UN inspectors into iraq to investigate on a regular basis, something which totally didn’t happen. the consequences of iraq’s refusal to allow inspectors in was supposed to be the u.s. returning. which was totally political suicide until sept. 11th. let’s not forget the genocide that sadaam perpetrated, hm? you may oppose the incompetence of the leadership of this war and still support the cause. he was a genocidal dictator, not just some guy. the way it was supposed to go wasn’t working.
so let’s go about green policy the RIGHT way! now that we see what happens when we make policy the WRONG way.
Jeff Alberts (10:29:40) :
I really don’t have anything against those posts, but they don’t belong on a science site.
————-
You don’t have anything against lying? You don’t have anything against hatred?
Those people don’t hate religion, they hate a pseudo religion, with no relationship to any recognized religion on this planet.
It’s over by my clock. Congratulations Anthony.
Congrats Anthony. Looks like Small Dead Animals may win too. Chalk one up to science!!!
THE WINNER!
12,238 vs. 14,150!
Congratulations!
At 2 p.m. PST:
WUWT: 14,147
Next: 12,235
Congratulations!
We must have won. Its 10pm GMT. Well done everyone and thanks to Anthony and guest posters for a truly brilliant combination of intelligence, questioning, altruism, friendliness and fun. Hooray. Ed.
Just so I know that I have it right:
1000 incorrect scientists beat out the one correct one? History must show this, certainly……
What would the earth’s temperature be if there was no CO2 ? If that were the case could we have a baseline as to what the addition and subtraction of a single “thingy” would be. I am NOT a scientist nor can I spell AGW.. But i am a programmer and without performing Exception or Unit testing all my programs crash no matter how smart i think I am. side note: All of the code I ever tested to perfection still never passed the User Acceptance Test unscathed 🙁 My point here is that without the ability to question…. There is no way to prove AGW at all. My thought is since the Polar Ice Cap is going to be totally gone by 2012 we have only 3 years. 🙂 Now there would be a great place to buy shore property as there is 6 months of 24hr a day sunshine :)….
As a programmer burned by promises of logarithmic scaling (SHOW ME).