A simple question; what is that red dot on the map? I was looking at the CONUS map browser depicting the 2008 temperature departure from normal provided by NOAA’s High Plains Regional Climate Center and noticed something odd:
Click for a larger image
Note the red dot in Arizona, which is the only one in the USA. Truly an anomaly. At first I thought it might be University of Arizona Tucson and its famous parking lot station, but that is further southeast.
The other map depiction HPRCC offers also shows it, and narrows it to a single data point:
Click for a larger image
HPRCC allows us to zoom in to the regional level to get a better handle on the location:
Unfortunately, I have not found any tools on the HPRCC website that will identify this station ID. I can narrow down the location to Pinal County Arizona, and using some crude graphical tools I can approximate the lat/lon of the red dot to be : 32.9, -111.4. This puts it near the town of Florence, AZ.
Doing a search in NCDC’s MMS database for all stations in Pinal county, I find that there is indeed a COOP station #23027 in Florence, and more importantly, it is part of the “A” sub-network, which makes it a climate reporting station.
According the NCDC MMS database the lat lon for Florence COOP station is 33.0363,-111.388 so it is not very far away from my crude lat/lon estimate as seen in this Google Earth view:
Further searching the NCDC MMS database tells me that the station is “current” and that the station has an MMTS temperature unit equipped with a newer NIMBUS LCD display, and a standard rain gauge.
Using the Location tab of the NCDC MMS database I find the station is located at:
Location Description: 1206 MAIN STREET WITHIN AND 0.1 MI NW OF PO AT FLORENCE, AZ
Prior to that it was located at: 1707 S WILLOW ST, WITHIN AND 0.4 MI SW OF PO AT FLORENCE, AZ
So, I put that address into Google Web Search and found this in the FCC database for a tower registration:
1206 Main St (Lat: 33.020056 Lon: -111.384000), Call Sign: WRA544
Assigned Frequencies : 155.475 MHz
Grant Date: 04/19/1999, Expiration Date: 07/05/2004, Cancelation Date: 09/26/2004
Registrant: Florence, Town Of, 130 Main St, Florence, AZ 85232, Phone: (602) 868-5873
So it appears the location is some city owned property, which makes sense, since COOP stations are often located at places that are staffed 24/7 (so somebody can take a reading once a day) and many city offices are. The lat/lon is fairly close to what the COOP coordinates are, but not quite close enough. The street address is about a half mile south of the lat/lon listed in the NCDC database:
The new location is at about 500 Main Street, rather than the 1206 Main Street listed in the NCDC MMS database. Perhaps it has been moved to a new location and NCDC has not caught up with the street address change. Perhaps the lat/lon is off. Anything is possible as I and the surfacestation volunteers constantly find discrepancies and errors in the database.
So I decided to use the new Google Street Level View feature to snoop around a bit at the two locations. I found nothing at 1206 S. Main Street except a lot of grass and buildings. It looks like perhaps a community college:
Click for an interactive view from Google Maps
But when I went looking around 500 Main Street – BINGO! I can spot both the MMTS sensor unit and the standard rain gauge to the west of the street:
Click for an interactive view from Google Maps
Looking at an aerial view using NCDC’s most current coordinates of 33.0363,-111.388 and Microsoft Live Search Maps, we can see what surrounds the sensor:
Click for a larger image
Click for an MS Live Maps interactive view
You can just barely make out the MMTS in the aerial view. In the street level view, it looks as if some crushed rock has been laid down near the sensor and it is fairly fresh. But more importantly, look at what surrounds the sensor:
- Main Street with it’s traffic.
- Buildings North, South, and West within about 10-30 yards
- Parking lots West and East. The one East has quite an albedo. In the Arizona sun I’m sure it gets quite toasty in full sun.
It is possible this station was recently moved from the south Main Street location to the North Main Street location, which may be a warmer location, I don’t know for certain because I can’t locate any imagery of the sensor at 1206 South Main Street. Further research is needed to pin that down.
This is neither a USHCN station nor a GISS station. It is also not the only possibility for the station that produced the red dot in the HPRCC map
There is another nearby COOP “A” sub-network station at the Casa Grande National Monument run by the US Park Service, COOP station #21314:
Location Description: CASA GRANDE RUINS NATL MON OUTSIDE AND 1.7 MILES NW OF PO AT COOLIDGE AZ
Its lat/lon of 32.9947,-111.5367 is also close to my original crude estimate of 32.9, -111.4
You can see the red dot is question and it’s nearest neighbor here in this closeup of the HPRCC southwest US dot map:
When I plot both stations in Google Earth and compare to the HPRCC map above, it appears that the yellow dot lines up with Casa Grande, AZ and the red dot lines up with Florence, AZ. My original lat/lon estimate is the white marker:
Click for a larger image
The Casa Grande COOP station also has some interesting issues that could be responsible for a temperature rise there. Comparing aerial images on the Google Earth and Microsoft Live Search maps, which are taken at different times by different vendors, show us that it appears the parking lot for the visitor center has recently been resurfaced:
Above: Casa Grande National Monument via Microsoft Live Search Maps – Click for a larger image
Above: Casa Grande National Monument via Google Earth – Click for a larger image
Since I have no time reference for the photos, it is also entirely possible that I have the sequence reversed and the parking lot has faded with time. But since I don’t see any significant vegetation changes nor other changes in the landscape between the two photos, and since fading usually takes a couple of years, I’m betting that we are seeing a resurface job, which can appear in a couple of days. I would expect more differences in vegetation or other changes if the pictures were taken years apart.
I think I can make out the Cotton region Shelter on the Google Earth image, just south of the visitor center. There is a street level view of the visitor center parking lot, which you can examine for yourself, but there are no weather instruments visible.
But there is another twist, according to the NCDC database, the station has recently been converted from a Cotton Region Shelter with max-min thermometers to the MMTS system, with the CRS maintained as backup instrument, So the MMTS may be closer to the building and/or the parking lot:
Click for a larger image
But on 10-18-2007 it appears the CRS was removed as a backup instrument. The picture above may be the only photographic record of it’s placement. As we have seen time and time again, the MMTS often gets closer to buildings due to trenching issues and cabling, so it may have introduced a bias in this station due to the placement change. It may not, I don’t know for certain since I can’t spot the MMTS at Casa Grande.
I also thought perhaps there may be a large amount of missing data in the observer B91 forms that could account for the anomaly. I checked both Florence and Casa Grande B91 observer forms at NCDC and they both appear current and well populated with data in the last year, you can search for B91 forms yourself here:
http://www7.ncdc.noaa.gov/IPS/coop/coop.html
I did note though that the Florence form changed in appearance from May of this year to November. It went from hand written to typed, which suggests an observer/location change:
Casa Grande B91 11-2008 Florence B91 Form 05-2008 Florence B91 Form 11-2008 (PDF files)
So we have two possible candidates for the station that made the red dot. Both have potential placement issues. It makes you wonder how many more of the dots in the HPRCC map have issue like this. I only spotted this one because it was such a large singular anomaly. I’ll check with HPRCC on Monday to see if they can identify the dot’s data origin for me. In the meantime I need help from our readers and volunteers.
Can anyone living in Arizona get photographs of these stations for me?
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Another Picacho in the area is Picacho Reservoir. With a canal system. Google Streetview doesn’t reach the reservoir, but a nearby view further west shows water-filled canals. Irrigation changes can also be affecting the region. Annual figures for 2008 aren’t listed yet at for the canal system.
About the two Casa Grande photos – –
The “I” median in the two photos shows ornamental plants in the top one and none in the bottom. In addition, the ornamentals are of different heights – suggesting varying levels of success in getting them to grow. Now, the ornamentals could have been cut down, but I suspect that they were planted and have grown. Thus the top picture with the lighter pavement is more recent.
Many thanks to Squidly, I almost forgot to post my vote for RC today.
But seriously, what a wonderful piece of detective work. It gives us some idea of what it takes for the police to track down the baddies. It’s not like on the television, it requires time and a lot of going from A to B to C then back to B before finding F and G and then discounting the red herrings at H-M before finding the truth at E.
Several months ago I posted a link to the site of Professor John Brignell, a retired Professor at the University of Southampton. I know many from here accessed his site and found his observations helpful and entertaining. Although he is not in the best of health Professor Brignell has posted a new essay which I am sure you will enjoy:
http://www.numberwatch.co.uk/lying.htm
BTW, has someone made a temp trend graph using only temp data from stations rated No.1 (accuracy being +/- 1 deg. C) , totally neglecting those from rating 2-5 stations ?
I eagerly would like to see one.
“Florence is growing in population and in square miles. From 2000 to 2008, Florence has increased in population by approximately 40% and has grown from about ten square miles to more than fifty today. Depending on market conditions, Florence could be home to 50,000 residents in the next ten to fifteen years.” Florence’s web site
Oh.. I think the huge population growth of Florence does not include the residents of the many prisons. Zoom out and east a bit. That’s not all industrial park.
CO2 levels. Hmm…..
http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/gmd/ccgg/trends/
This dot proves global warming!!
Anthony, You deserve a medal for your efforts. It’s a travesty that Jim Hansen and his croneys are attempting to influence policy based quite literally on garbage data. It’s shocking and disgusting that they are allowed to get away with this. Its nothing short of fraud.
I live in Phoenix, AZ, and all I have to do in the summer to cool off a good bit is to drive until I am out of Phoenix, and upwind. To think that some sort of an “average” temperature could be determined by these stations surrounded by built-up areas is completely insane. How about how many thermometers can fit on the head of a pin? It would be of as much sense.
The shoddy metrology in climate ‘science’ never ceases to amaze me. Why oh why don’t they spend some money on a properly sited network that measures temperature every few minutes and dials in once a day via the mobile phone network? They can use solar or a wind generator to power remote sensors.
You’re kidding right? You’re actually going to base your argument on 1 point of information from an indirect source? Children please grow.
REPLY: You are making gigantic a leap of illogic. I’m interested as to why this one station is showing an odd anomaly. For you to claim that I’m making a global leap from one data point is disingenuous and incorrect. Aren’t you the least bit curious? – Anthony
Squidly:
Please don’t get complacent! Remember what happened last year: Climate Audit was comfortably ahead, and then at the last minute the shenanigans started. CA had to settle for a tie.
The voting ends Tuesday. Until then, please vote every day: click
Then we can relax and have a beer.
Squidly,
I believe the decline in CO2 consuming plankton coinciding with cooling periods suggests that cooling periods have less CO2, so anything that relies on CO2 is [snip-find better word for has a problem] This is incredibly supportive of the theory that CO2 causes heat, provided no other possibilities occur to you.
CO2 measurements at Mauna Loa dropped by 1 ppm in December 2008 (seasonally adjusted) so it seems there was just some monthly variation happening (related to ocean conditions or not).
This leave Mauna Loa’s CO2 increase over the past year (December to December) at just 0.24 ppm
ftp://ftp.cmdl.noaa.gov/ccg/co2/trends/co2_mm_mlo.txt
The global CO2 numbers, however, increased by 1.84 ppm over the past year so there was probably just some monthly variation or error happening at Mauna Loa.
ftp://ftp.cmdl.noaa.gov/ccg/co2/trends/co2_mm_gl.txt
I think it is your Maricopa County Sheriff playing with your minds. What depository do you think is there?
thats really cool
Very interesting, Anthony, and good comments by all. As an aside, I am no longer holding to my initial assumption that this was a downed UFO site.
Larryoldtimer,
I have lived in Phoenix most of my life and, as you know, in the summer temperature is greatly influence by the asphalt, concrete and irrigation. I don’t know how they correct for the sprinklers being turned on (evaporative cooling works well out here). It is true that driving out of town in the summer is a good way to get cool, whether it be by leaving the asphalt or getting into farm land.
CSI can’t hold a candle to WUWT. As many have said, this is great work. My question is: how late did Anthony stay up tracking down this red dot? See something odd and investigate. That’s science (and detective work) at it’s best.
Maybe the red dot is from the alien spaceship that smacked the windmill in the UK (or the lightning bolt, but that doesn’t sell tabloid rags)
DJ,
The blue dots in Colorado appear to be in the Monte Vista area. If you zoom in using Google Maps you’ll see mountains to the west of town and also a large number of irrigated fields surrounding town. My guess is that the station has recently been moved to a cooler location.
The Florence DOT disappears from July to November, even though the data sheets are there. April and May were very hot compared to average, which is probably the weighting that drove the red dot high. Comparing April and May to the nearby Casa Grande, something was going on. While the highs track together, and were hotter than normal at Florence, the lows were much higher at Florence. A wild guess would be that there is a sprinkler system that was on at night, or some other mechanism to keep the lower lows from happening. You can see something obvious going on here:
Florence: http://www.hprcc.unl.edu/stations/index.php?action=metadata&network_station_id=023027
Casa Grande: http://www.hprcc.unl.edu/stations/index.php?action=metadata&network_station_id=021314
Looks like a combination of missing data and maybe a moisture issue or some other heat influence at the Florence site at night. Humidity records might show something…
Peter,
I believe what they are trying to say is, oceanic plankton removes billions of tons of CO2 from the atmosphere and that around 33 million years ago, a very sharp decline of the population of this plankton resulted in much higher CO2 concentration, and further that this coincided with a significant global cooling. Hence, the CO2 rose sharply during that period of time but the planet cooled.
Coincidently, I happened to catch a science channel program last night where they were talking about increasing the amount of plankton in the ocean to help scrub CO2 (same hypothesis as in the article cited), which also coincides with the more recent attempts seed the oceans with iron filings to boost the growth of various algae and plankton.
What puzzled me most, was that this article was presented on a typically AGW alarmist website and that most importantly, the hypothesis was that the lack of this “CO2 gobbling Plankton” would lead to cooler temperatures. This hypothesis is in direct contradiction to the hypothesis that CO2 drives global warming.
This says to me that they obviously have no clue as to the effect that CO2 has on global temperature, which further diminishes credibility of the AGW hypothesis in general. This “chasing the CO2 tail” is getting past the point of ridiculous, and for me beginning to pass the point of humorous.
Seems to me that CO2 causes everything and therefore we must remove this terribly destructive pollutant from our world [sarcasm].
I also read the article “Scientists Refute Argument Of Climate Skeptics” (link posted on same web site and cited by someone else on this blog as well) and found it equally disturbing in that they seem to distort the record to bias their sensational title.
Perhaps it is better to be uninformed than misinformed?
What is the political or hidden purpose behind all the AGW propaganda?
Some say it is a malthusian cause seeking the selected survival of some dominant specimens like the fat one we all know.
Re: Heat Islands
I thought you’d be interested in the prospective of a glider pilot and student of micrometeorology.
The Phoenix heat dome is often clearly visible from an airplane. Since I began observing it in the early 1970s it has grown significantly larger and more intense. The dome is a stagnate air mass made visible by the pollution and dust it traps near the surface. It also traps hot air.
Daytime thermals drive a vertical circulation of the air mass, or “mixing” in weather-speak.. Arizona thermals usually reach 9,000 to16,000 feet msl during the spring and summer. This pushes cold, upper level air downward, which in turn moderates surface temperatures.
Most people know that urban areas retain heat at night. Urban areas also produce strong stagnant air masses which delay the onset and intensity of thermal mixing during the day. This in turn raises day time temperatures.
From decades of experience, glider pilots know that thermal activity is suppressed over urban areas. Since gliders rely upon thermals to stay airborne, they avoid large urban areas whenever possible. The larger the urban area the larger the effect.
The Phoenix record high of 122 F was set on a very stagnant day in June 1990. Gliders just 10 miles south of the Sky Harbor weather station could not find usable thermals .. an almost unheard of event.
From my prospective the heat island effect is under estimated by most warmists.