I sent a query to Dr. John Christy, curator of the UAH global temperature anomaly dataset, inquiring about some of the changes in the RSS dataset. In addition to commenting on that, he was also kind enough to send along an advance copy of the soon to be posted UAH data for October, which you can see here.
Here is the plot, not much change, essentially steady up .006°C to 0.167°C from 0.161°C
Click for a larger image
Dr. Christy also writes about the RSS data set and it’s recent revise from Version 3.1 to 3.2:
Anthony:
As our last several papers show, we find considerable evidence that our
current procedure better represents the temperature variations than does
RSS’s, particularly in the 1990 period where we show RSS displays a
relative warming to every other independent dataset we’ve studied.
The Oct numbers have been run but not yet mounted on the website. I hope
to do that tomorrow. Globally, Oct almost the same as Sep.
John C.
And keep score.
On GISS– They currently report October as warmer than September. On the other hand, their temperature for August dropped 0.11C. Due to the features associated with their algorithm, a monthly GISS temperature reports seems to be unstable for at least three months.
I have a jpg showing the current update and the cache at my blog.
John Philip:
Reading the paper won’t tell me why it was not acceptable for publication. I can assume it is because of the final statement: ‘These conclusions are contrary to the IPCC [2007] statement: “[M]ost of the observed increase in global average temperatures since the mid-20th century is very likely due to the observed increase in anthropogenic greenhouse gas concentrations.”’
Blimey! That is a big delta for GISS, the biggest move away from the satellites for a while, even when you take the different baselines into account:
http://www.woodfortrees.org/plot/wti/last:12/plot/hadcrut3vgl/last:12/offset:-0.15/plot/gistemp/last:12/offset:-0.24/plot/uah/last:12/plot/rss/last:12
Interesting to see where HADCRUT3 goes….
None of you are qualified to make climate statements until you complete the following curriculum…Master in Disaster
http://www.achgut.com/dadgdx/index.php/dadgd/article/master1/
Patrick Hadley:
GISS is simply laying the data down for an Obama government takeover.
Over at Lucia’s Blackboard (http://rankexploits.com/musings/) , it can be seen that although the UK Met Office is reporting all of the UK cooler than normal for October, the GISTemp is showing is significantly warmer than normal. GISTemp cannot be trusted.
The Nino 3.4 region warmed by +0.4C in July (and since there is a 3 month lag in the Nino versus global temps), temps should have increased by about 0.024C October. So I’m assuming the AMO index (which also drives global temps) declined in October given the small increase in UAH and the small decrease in RSS.
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Sat data is the key to understanding, not the corrupted surface record. – Anthony
The Sat data (AMSU 900mb) actually supports the surface record. Asia, Russia, Eastern Europe, South America, the Arctic and even Africa have all been much warmer than normal during the past month. November seems to be even warmer. This global cooling nonsense needs to be nipped in the bud or else the whole AGW sceptic movement is going to be left with a lot of egg on it’s face.
Yet the satellite record and GISS seem to have parted company rather dramatically for October.
Andrea Smith
Andrea, everyone should read this inspiring -save the planet – Op-Ed. http://www.nytimes.com/2008/11/09/opinion/09gore.html?_r=1&pagewanted=print&oref=slogin
“Here’s what we can do — now: we can make an immediate and large strategic investment to put people to work replacing 19th-century energy technologies that depend on dangerous and expensive carbon-based fuels with 21st-century technologies that use fuel that is free forever: the sun, the wind and the natural heat of the earth.”
“What follows is a five-part plan to repower America with a commitment to producing 100 percent of our electricity from carbon-free sources within 10 years. It is a plan that would simultaneously move us toward solutions to the climate crisis and the economic crisis — and create millions of new jobs that cannot be outsourced.”
Each time the high priest opens his mouth to speak, I am thankful for “hanging chads.” Have we now leaped from the frying pan into the fire?
Mr. Finn, I was just as crityical of the ’70s global cooling alarm as I am of the AGW alarm today.
Phillip Bratby
“…is very likely due to the observed increase in anthropogenic greenhouse gas concentrations.”’
In the specious, spurious science of AGW, the above is sufficient forensic evidence to determine guilt and convict. Imagine a court of justice where the guilty plea is the only plea.
Flanagan…
One more time for you: you can’t take the daily satellite readings at face value. There is drift, which is then corrected for in the monthly numbers. Haven’t you noticed how almost every month at some point it appears 2008 has reached “the highest point on record”, and yet that month does not end up anywhere near the actual records. November 2008 is NOT running warmer than any other year on record according to UAH, I guarantee it.
John Finn –
How can you say the satellite record matches GISS, when both UAH and RSS show October 2008 as the coolest since 2000, while GISS claims it is easily the warmest ever? The discrepency is HUGE.
Also, how can the Arctic have been much warmer than normal last month, when we just saw the greatest ice extent increase in October on record?
How can you say the satellite record matches GISS, when both UAH and RSS show October 2008 as the coolest since 2000, while GISS claims it is easily the warmest ever?
Because the satellite measurements nearest to the surface (i.e. @ur momisugly 3,300 ft) are also warm. The higher the measurements – the cooler the anomalies. In any case, I’m not sure that you’re argument is – are you saying Russia and Asia weren’t warm? or South America or the Arctic.
The fact that the Arctic is refreezing means nothing. We expect it to freeze in winter.
Mr. Finn, I was just as crityical of the ’70s global cooling alarm as I am of the AGW alarm today.
Me too. And I’m even more critical of the latest global cooling nonsense. There is no evidence to suggest the world is cooling. Nor is there any evidence to suggest that a weak solar solar cycle will have any appreciable effect on global temperatures. ENSO events are a factor but even though there are still lingering effects from the recent La Nina, temperature data from all sources (satellite and surface) still show anomalies above the long term mean.
I think someone at GISS is putting his thumb on the scale again!
John Finn-
I don’t think you comprehend how the UAH monthly anomaly works. You see, that number is a measurement of the lowest levels of the troposphere, the 3300′ you reference. Therefore, the +.167 October UAH anomaly is very far from the +.78 GISS anomaly (yes, I realize their base periods are different..the difference is still huge).
And the Arctic hasn’t just been “refreezing”, it refroze at a faster rate than ever recorded in October. And snowcover over Asia is greater and thicker than it was last year at this time. And yet somehow we are supposed to believe that Asia was much warmer than last year (and all years previous for October)?
You see, that number is a measurement of the lowest levels of the troposphere, the 3300′ you reference
Is it? I thought it was an average of the temps between 850mb to 300mb but it’s been a while since I looked. I certainly don’t think UAH (or RSS) readings are representative of temps at a single height of 3300 ft (900 mb), though.
Jared
I think the difference in the base line between the two is about 0.5 degrees C, actually a bit more than that. So it may be most of the diffence in the anomally numbers.
At least that is how Phillippe explained it over at Skeptical Science web site.
John
I don’t know what the long term mean temperature you refer to, nor do I know that it has any significance.
However, unless the fossil record is pure junk that “long term mean” temperature of the earth is higher than the present. Or were you intending to digress into a creationist argument?
“Wondering Aloud”: The difference between UAH and GISTEMP is around 0.24K – derivation at http://www.woodfortrees.org/notes#baselines
The “Green Jobs” program is just today’s “Forced Collectivization” of yesteryears which if taken to the degree it was in Russia, would have the same result – famine and death of large parts of the population.
What I find interesting about the UAH graph, is that definite sawtooth substructure, that seems to show a repetitive sudden dive and an essentially linear and fixed time constant slow recovery. My seat of the pants suggests to me, that that is not just sheer random wandering, but there appears to be some definite physical reason for that behavior; and no, I am not competent to even suggest what that might be; but I’ll bet that Dr Christy, and Dr Roy Spencer have wondered about that and have some ideas.
Maybe you Might ask Dr Christy what HE thinks that is; it looks too repetitive to just be sheer luck.
George