As many readers know, the predictions for record low sea ice minimums in 2008 were not met, and 2008 ended up about 9% higher than in 2007 at the end of the season. See the report here.
Now in looking at AMSR-E satellite data, the red line on the graph below, one can see that the recovery is at a significantly faster rate than in recent years.
Click for larger image
I’m not one to read much into this, as to do so would be to make the same mistake as was done earlier this year when the NSIDC melt trend led one researcher there to conclude that we’d see an “ice free north pole”.
This graph from the National Snow and Ice Data Center, I published with annotations on July 14th 2008, which was oft cited back in early June with the phrase “if this trend continues…”.
Image from July 14th, 2008. Click for larger image – annotation added
So we will watch and wait to see if the current recovery continues at the same trend as shown by AMSR-E satellite data today, or gets softened. It is rather interesting to see this increased ice extent increase in September when both UAH and GISS reported warmer global temperature anomalies, including the northern hemisphere, for September.
h/t to Magnus
Why is the period 1979-2000 average used for comparison? What is so magical about this period’s endpoint?
Well, it’s good to hear that the ice will recover in time to prevent “Floe” the polar bear from sinking…
http://www.nationalgridfloe.com/
Courtesy of MY electric company (National Grid)…no wonder my bills are so high…
Shhhh!!! This is a secret!
The media has been running Ice Loss stories all week and other useful stories about Polar Bears.
The latest and my favorite one is researchers are testing polar bear hearing so they can say the noise of human activity in the Arctic effects the survivabilty of the bears by impacting their ability to hunt.
They are doing this with a captive bear who they have trained to click a switch when it hears a noise to get a treat. Perhaps training a bear to do tricks for food might actually impact its ability to hunt, I am just saying.
Think soot. Once the ice melts, all the soot that was accumulated during the past year is dissolved in the ocean. Thus, the ice rebounds a lot quicker without the soot. To me this proof positive that soot plays a large role in ice loss. If this sounds too logical for the posers at RC to understand, it’s because it is.
Frank K. Yep, good news! Ice bears now wont die or become deaf:
http://wattsupwiththat.com/2008/09/30/bs-alert-polar-bear-hearing-affected-to-due-global-warming/
I’m no psychologist, but also the penguins seems just fine…
http://a448.ac-images.myspacecdn.com/images01/117/s_802e9571ee87157070e6a60da322ec9f.gif
Well, I bet media (and the regulating left) come up with something!!
Has anyone seen any evidence that the summer of 2008 was colder than 2007 in the Arctic. All of the data I have seen does not show this.
I’m not quibling, I just don’t think there are any objective scientists at the NSIDC and, hence, any explanation they come up with is not believable without some independent verification.
Gahhhh….. Global warming melts Icelands financial systems – stop Coal now!!!
Studded tire season isn’t till November 1st. But this Friday and very early Monday morning, I have to navigate snow covered roads over Tollgate on my way to the ranch. Damnable global warming.
My deep concern about claims for Arctic Ice melts, both from the sceptics and the believers, is that they miss the point.
The Arctic Ice has NOT behaved in a way that supports AGW theory. Instead of air temperatures, ocean currents and winds seem to have been the major influences on it. Now these are obviously very strong climate influencers – we should be learning about them. Unfortunately, AGW theory states that AIR temperature is king, and that the effect of CO2 will be GLOBAL, thus obviating any transfer of heat by winds. So I assume no money will go to find out what is happening, but we will rather get into arguments about how strong the recovery will be, and how much ice will melt next year…. It would be nice to see some unpoliticised science – just once!
OT – The cat’s out of the hat: ” The economic crisis is a good thing ”
http://www.reuters.com/article/GlobalEnvironment08/idUSTRE4966A220081007
I’m sure a few hundred million deaths would be a good thing too, wouldn’t it ?
Who cares if humans suffer – as long as the planet cools down !
I think the ice extent data collection started in 1979, so that makes an obvious starting point for the set. 2000 may have been chosen as an end-point for the average because it’s a nice even number.
A better question would be why don’t they include error bars on the 1979-2000 average line. That would give a clearer picture of how / if more recent data is significantly different.
Mike86
Don’t you realize this quick recovery of sea ice is completely consistent with global warming? (See, Settled Scientific American, 1987-2008. Issues, 209, 210, 211, 212,….;Warmer=Warming, Cooler=Warming) You must work for oil companies or something.
The sharp upward slant of the sea ice shows that we could be heading into a fossil fuel induced ice age… that will be warm, or something.
And what about how this quick refreezing affects the polar bears? And the children?
@ur momisugly Graeme Rodaughan (15:48:56)
Are you by any slim chance a journalist or editor for an MSM publication?
If not, you missed your life’s calling. I fully expect someone from the MSM to plagerize your lead-ins. You can make ’em up with the best of them. (Those really cracked me up. Thanks for the giggles, although shtuff like that really does get published.)
Hey, Tom in Florida. RI still has warm falls. It’s mid-October and still not frosts in South County yet. I spent my teenage summers in Narragansett and SK.
Record cold data is beginning to role in:
These data are preliminary and have not undergone final quality control by the National Climatic Data Center (NCDC). Therefore, these data are subject to revision. Final and certified climate data can be accessed at the NCDC – http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov.
Record Report
000
SXUS76 KPDT 091815
RERPDT
RECORD EVENT REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
1114 AM PDT THU OCT 9 2008
…NEW DAILY RECORD LOW TEMPERATURES FOR OCTOBER 9TH…
NOTE: STATIONS MARKED WITH * INDICATE THAT THE STATION REPORTS ONCE
PER DAY. FOR CONSISTENCY…THESE VALUES ARE CONSIDERED TO HAVE
OCCURRED ON THE DAY THE OBSERVATION WAS TAKEN BUT MAY HAVE ACTUALLY
OCCURRED (ESPECIALLY FOR MAX TEMPERATURE) ON THE PREVIOUS DAY.
STATION PREVIOUS NEW RECORDS
RECORD/YEAR RECORD BEGAN
MEACHAM, OR 24 / 2006 20 1948 :SINCE MID
See!!!! It’s damn cold where I live!
Damnable global warming.
Gordon Brown suing Iceland
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/financetopics/financialcrisis/3167190/Financial-crisis-Gordon-Brown-to-sue-Iceland-over-near-1bn-of-frozen-bank-deposits.html
Obama unveils his middle class tax cut
Obama to push for higher Social Security tax…during an interview on NBC’s “Meet the Press,” Obama said subjecting more of a person’s income to the payroll tax is the option he would push for if elected president.
http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/21739271/
Remember the definition they use for extent: a region is considered part of the extent if at least 15% is covered. So you could easily have a large region that is at say 14% and it wouldn’t be considered part of the extent. A 1% increase in the ice in the region and voila the region is part of the ice extent. A further increase of ice in that region wouldn’t increase the extent by that definition only the actual ice area. Other years have shown similar bumps in extent trends. I posted this graph over at Lucia’s.
One thing to note is that 2008 has been above the 2003-7 average extent increase for about a month.
Once again, the cut and paste just doesn’t make things clear. In 2006 (since records began in 1948), a record was set: 24 degrees F. But it is now eclipsed by the new record: 20 degrees F on October 9th, 2008. Its no wonder I am only 4′ 10 and 1/2 inches tall. The growing season is very short here.
@ur momisugly Pamela Gray (18:27:37) :
“Studded tire season isn’t till November 1st. But this Friday and very early Monday morning, I have to navigate snow covered roads over Tollgate on my way to the ranch. Damnable global warming”
Be thankful for AGW. Could you imagine how bad it would be without it ? ; )
🙂
I posted this exact same info on another forum yesterday.
Looks like we’re in for a new record refreeze….if this trend continues, of course…
@Dee
I can see it now:
“Mann announces website Watts Up With That (www.wattsupwithtat.com) causing global warming. The website has been growing enormously in page-hits this year, causing servers and personal computers everywhere to use more electricity as thousands of web-browsers land on the page, many of them by bloggers who link to the page causing further traffic. John Smith, a university professor who teaches classes in the environmental impact of technology upon nature, said that “the extra usage of electricity, resulting in increased CO2 production, may result in increased global warming causing computers to shut down due to overheating.” The professor said he strongly encouraged people to turn off their computers, stay home, and pray the Earth does not explode due to greenhouse gas emissions. He cited with concern a graph put out by famed statistician Michael Mann correlating traffic on the website with an increase in greenhouse gases and consquent temperature rises globally. Mann remarked himself that he hoped local officials would contact site operator, Anthony Watts, to urge him to set limits on his page hits in order to make it more environmentally friendly. Site operator Anthony Watts could not be reached for comment, although – honestly – nobody really tried anyway.
But it would appear that there is less snow on the ground this year as opposed to last year.
http://igloo.atmos.uiuc.edu/cgi-bin/test/print.sh?fm=10&fd=09&fy=2007&sm=10&sd=08&sy=2008
sorry about the typo…should be (www.wattsupwiththat.com)
Based on the trend, the sea ice extent will obviously cross the equator… on all sides… and you won’t be able to outrun it…
@JohnD…
Cross the equator???
It’s obviously going to run out of water before it gets that far… Isn’t it?