A Yogi Berra moment – “it’s deja vu all over again…”
From NHC Public Advisory #25
DATA FROM AN AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 150 MPH…240 KM/HR…WITH HIGHER GUSTS. GUSTAV IS AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE SCALE. SOME FLUCTUATIONS WITH AN OVERALL SLIGHT STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS…AND GUSTAV COULD REACH CATEGORY FIVE INTENSITY DURING THIS PERIOD. GUSTAV IS FORECAST TO REMAIN A MAJOR HURRICANE THROUGH LANDFALL ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COAST.
Here is my own hurricane track imagery of Gustav and Hanna:
Click for a Hi Definition image
I’m sure this will become mass-media fodder again for the ever popular “global warming causes more damaging hurricanes”, but it is important to note that NHC’s own science officer, Christopher Landsea, co-authored a paper that claims otherwise. So have other scientists.
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Al Gore is probably salivating right now.
Let’s be very careful here: there are still conflicting studies being published regularly on the impact of an increasing climate on tropical cyclones. I believe the general consensus at the moment is that while a warming climate may reduce the overall number of storms by altering the tropical environments in such ways that could produce more shear, among other things, it will likely increase the potential for more intense hurricanes by increasing not only the SST’s of the waters in the breeding grounds for hurricanes, but could also lead to a larger profile of warm water, which helps amplify the potential energy available to be extrapolated by hurricanes.
The bottom line is that the jury is out on this one. Furthermore, it’s much more likely that, with the RNC going on early next week, the media will spend much more time rehashing memories of Hurricane Katrina, which complicates PR matters quite significantly for the Republicans.
People are going to be hurt by this storm. If bringing up the demon of global warming persuades a few more people to evacuate to safety, then in the grand scheme of things, I can take a pass on the media not quite accurately representing the science of global warming and hurricanes.
REPLY: The first part is noted and is reasonable, but regarding your last paragraph. I’m sorry “counters”, but that’s got to be one of the most ridiculous things ever written on this blog, and I’m being kind in my use of language here. If getting the hell out of the way of a Cat5 Hurricane isn’t enough incentive to evacuate, what the heck is?. The “demon of global warming” as “scare factor” for some stubborn dolt that won’t move despite repeated warnings won’t even move the needle on the fright meter for them.
Some people just won’t leave. A few folks that thought they could ride out the Mt. St. Helens eruption come to mind.
Anthony,
It is unusual that a member of the AGW crowd would be at variance with the standard mantra, but Michael Moore, in an interview with Keith Olberman, said that “Gustav is proof that there is a God in Heaven.” It is obvious that he cannot be saying Gustav is due to AGW. The AGW believers sometimes come closer to the truth than they realize.
Anthony, good for the nail.
Now, Counter’s first paragraph is discussable. The problem about any discussion with historical records of hurricanes or cyclones or typhoons, is that there is nor reliable historical record. Same as with global temperatures.
We only have reliable records, globally, since satellites made available global; measurements.
What amuses me is that Hansen, working for NASA, relies soooo much on terrestrial measurements.
REPLY: What amuses me is that Hansen has this absurd idea that he can accurately adjust for the entropy of the measurement environment for the thousands of terrestrial data points.
Yeah, it’s not funny. We just finished shuttering up.
Lake Okeechobee is filled, and believe it or not, they are considering draining it again. This is causing afirestorm of protest because of the damage that was done the last time they drained it — It was last drained 8 feet in summer 2006 this caused the ‘Florida drought’ of the last few years. Few want to actually say, it was man’s decision, well SWFMD did it, to drain the lake …
Not looking good for New Orleans; its projected path is just far enough west to avoid a direct hit but not far enough west to avoid the worst side of the storm. At least the politicians seem to have learned a lesson from three years ago and are taking this one seriously.
I brought up a point on this blog in another article that we have a natural experiment going on with 2 storms in similar water temps. If, as Algore et al believe, the water temp is the main reason for increased hurricane intensity, then both storms should end up about the same strength. However, as we now see, tropical cyclones are affected by much more than just water temps. They must have the right weather conditions to grow into major storms. Gustav has had the required warm water, a good outflow due to atmospheric conditions above and little or no wind sheer. Hannah, on the other hand, has the warm water temps but is being sheered by a low pressure system just to it’s west which is keeping the thunderstorms from closing the loop around the center of circulation. The AGW crowd’s simplistic reasoning is once again shown to be flat out wrong. And to those who only two days ago referred to Gustav as being “hyped”, well, I guess you were wrong too.
Seriously? Nearly a Cat 5? I don’t even see a defined eye…
REPLY The eye is covered by the symbol, look at this image:
http://www.intelliweather.net/imagery/IntelliWeather/sat_atlhurr_fullview_640x480.jpg
The eye will become better defined once it passes over Cuba
Ed Scott (15:59:46) :
Only someone like Moore or Olberman would say such a despicable thing. Imagine a Republican saying it was God punishing New Orleans for re-electing Nagin and how they would react!
REPLY: What amuses me is that Hansen has this absurd idea that he can accurately adjust for the entropy of the measurement environment for the thousands of terrestrial data points.
You mean, FIX THE BOOKS, but cannot say that.
Tarpon:
SWFMD ????
counters (15:42:49) :
I probably would have passed on this if Anthony hadn’t commented, If you had referred to something more general than one intense (but small) hurricane then I’d be more inclined to be the first to comment.
You are not the first person to argue this line, but when the general public realizes that everything they’ve heard has been wrong, and when other news media look into all the nonsense bandied about for the last few decades the result is going to be 1) disbelief of the media, 2) disbelief of the scientists.
We already have 1), though the general public has shown they follow the “If it bleeds (or flames) it leads” maxim.
2) though, will be a real shame. Several scientists are either staying silent to protect their careers or speaking out at risk to their careers. If CO2 turns out not to be the culprit, as it increasingly appears, and we wind up in decades of a cooling climate and tight energy supplies, who’s going to chart a way out? If the public decides that all the lies and overstatements from people like Hansen means that scientists are just as biased as the media and deserve just as much disrespect, then what?
There’s a huge amount of research and engineering that can be done with everything from breeder reactors producing electricity and hydrogen to bacterial reactors producing fatty acids for biofuels. Setting the stage for rejection of scientists because AGW turns out to be wrong raises my hackles.
Lying to the entire population to encourage a few idiots to evacuate has too many bad consequences down the road.
Anthony wrote:
“Some people just won’t leave. A few folks that thought they could ride out the Mt. St. Helens eruption come to mind.”
I’ve concluded that Harry Truman made the right decision. He couldn’t bear to life without what he had, he had lived a long and full life, and he understood the risks. He and other didn’t realize just what was coming, if he knew that potential, then perhaps he would have left. If he knew the outcome, he might have sent his cats away but stayed himself. At least no one lied to him.
BTW, another thing to worry about with Gustav is that it is forecasted to slow down as it reaches land. While strong winds don’t reach far inland, rain does, so we have a good set up for a lot of inland flooding.
One saving grace is that the storm is small (gee, so was Camille), so perhaps not too large an area will have wind damage. Another is that water temps are cooler for the most part north of Cuba, so even if Gustav reaches Cat 5, I’d say it’s unlikely to be Cat 5 at landfall.
Still, the only reasonable course to take when a Cat 4 or 5 hurricane is coming at you is simply move out of the way….
Moore’s comment and those of several DNC leaders as to how this will ‘lock up’ the election are despicable. No matter what your politics, it is very wrong to rejoice over the suffering caused by any event.
It reveals their true agenda.
(@ur momisugly a couple of early comments)
Gustav is in warmer water than Hanna is, plus Hanna is under more wind shear, so I don’t expect Hanna to do what Gustav is doing. In 2005 Wilma was one of the most intense storms ever when it was in very warm waters in the Western Caribbean. By the time it went over us in South Florida, it had traversed cooler waters and was only about a Cat 1 or 2 by the time it got here (I was still out of power & phone service for a week.)
Hopefully Gustav will also diminish in intensity when it reaches the cooler waters closer to La. Right now its over some of the warmest waters in the entire Atlantic.
Robert, I think Tarpon meant to say “South Florida Water Management District”, the people who drain Lake Okeechobee every time a thunderstorm goes by for fear it will fill too high and break through its aging dikes and drown everyone. Happened before, killed 2,000 people in the 1920’s. But their recent zealousness has kept South Florida in perpetual drought for the past few years, that lake is the origin of most of our water.
Was he trying to say it was good for the AGW movement that people should be forced from their homes by a normal weather event so it can be blamed on AGW?
You’re free to find my opinion ridiculous, but that doesn’t change the fact that casting Gustav in the guise of some ridiculous AGW-powered “super-cane” could very well cause more people to evacuate. I’m not saying it’s the right thing to do, I’m merely throwing this out there. It’s a little thing called propaganda; it’s supposed to be ridiculous – that’s how it works. Go ahead and vilify the media for their misinformed spin, but that doesn’t change the reality of things – especially in a post-Katrina New Orleans. I’m okay with being the messenger that must be shot to get this point across.
Mr Watts, on a blog where some commentors regularly claim that CO2 has no effect on the climate, or that climatologists ignore the effects of the sun, or that we’re actually seeing a global cooling trend, or that the models are fabrications of some conspiracy and manipulated solely to produce a warming climate, or – my favorite – that AGW is some vast Socialist conspiracy (okay, so this is moreso on other blogs, but it comes up every so often here), I am honored to be bestowed the honor of having contributed the most ridiculous comment.
Now, I suggest we all get back to filling up our gas tanks before the prices skyrocket thanks to price gouging in this convenient situation.
REPLY: Counters, don’t lecture it is unbecoming, especially from anonymous cowards. And please don’t try to justify “bending the truth for the greater good”. As a member of the media, myself I’m tasked with reporting weather, I find that insulting. You’ve earned more than the most ridiculous comment. Take a time out.
“If bringing up the demon of global warming persuades a few more people to evacuate to safety”
This reminds me of those who justify the exaggeration of the possible consequences of global warming in order to force action.
I believe that the end never justifies the means. Tell me the truth and let me, as a free man, decide what is best for me and my family.
The UN has cried “wolf” far too many times.
According to a July 5, 1989, article in the Miami Herald, the then-director of the New York office of the United Nations Environment Program (UNEP), Noel Brown, warned of a 10-year window of opportunity to solve global warming. According to the 1989 article, A senior U.N. environmental official says entire nations could be wiped off the face of the Earth by rising sea levels if the global warming trend is not reversed by the year 2000. Coastal flooding and crop failures would create an exodus of eco-refugees, threatening political chaos.
Anyone else notice that none of this has happened?
Isnt the fact its a good chance its gonna go west of N.O a good thing? While it will put the city in risk of high wind damage, wouldnt that push the surge from the lake away from the city itself and into the opposite shore? I thought Katrina was so bad because it hit at the perfect angle east of the city that the natural spin of the storm caused the lake to push into the city itself.
Though I admit the storm at the angle it is going west of the city seems to have a good chance of pushing its storm surge directly up the bay and into the lake, but again, wouldnt the natural spin and motion still push that extra water away from the city and into the opposite shores?
Brendan Loy is blogging as ‘Weather Nerd’ at Pajamas Media. Some may remember his Katrina coverage. Where did that high, dry, air come from?
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“I believe that the end never justifies the means.” Mike Bryant
Yep, someone said “the means are the end”.
To BarryW,
Science and scientists, when practicing science, should be apolitical. I am optimistic that the damage done, and being done, to science by the AGW acolytes can be repaired, but the question remains, where does science go to get its reputation back? A good beginning was the signing of the petition by 31,000 plus physicists. although it received practically no media attention.
In a brilliant display of ignorance, Senator Boxer accused Dr. Roy Spencer,Principal Research Scientist. University of Alabama, of being an echo of Rush Limbaugh.
The despicable display of schadenfreude by some AGW believers should be condemned by all engaged in scientific pursuit. You ask, how can one be so cruel?
my favorite – that AGW is some vast Socialist conspiracy (okay, so this is moreso on other blogs, but it comes up every so often here)
Fair enough. My own thesis is that it is not a conspiracy, but a “class action” error of the sort which has ocurred before (re. resources, population, what have you).
And, yes, political extremists of any stripe will always jump on the bandwagon (real or not) in order to take advantage. But they are exploiting the issue, not instigating it.
However, I must object to employing AGW fears to evacuate the coast. The events of 2005 should do just fine for that.
“Science and scientists, when practicing science, should be apolitical.” Ed Scott
The problem is they think the consequences are so immense that it is best to err on the side of caution even if that involves spending trillions and possibly wrecking the world’s economy. Panic might work every now and then but it is for sure not the percentage play.
I believe that the end never justifies the means.
Sometimes it does. Sometimes it doesn’t. It depends entirely on the means. And the end.
So glad we cleared THAT one up!