The sun on 08/12/2008 just before midnight UTC – spotless
As many of you know, the sun has been very quiet, especially in the last month. In a NASA news release article titled What’s Wrong with the Sun? (Nothing) solar physicist David Hathaway goes on record as saying:
“It does seem like it’s taking a long time,” allows Hathaway, “but I think we’re just forgetting how long a solar minimum can last.”
No argument there. But it does seem to me that the purpose of Hathaway’s July 11th article was to smooth over the missed solar forecasts he’s made. Here is a comparison of early and more recent forecasts from Hathway:
Click for a larger image
He also seems intent on making sure that when compared to a grand minima, such as the Maunder Minimum, this current spotless spell is a mere blip.
The quiet of 2008 is not the second coming of the Maunder Minimum, believes Hathaway. “We have already observed a few sunspots from the next solar cycle,” he says. (See Solar Cycle 24 Begins.) “This suggests the solar cycle is progressing normally.”
What’s next? Hathaway anticipates more spotless days1, maybe even hundreds, followed by a return to Solar Max conditions in the years around 2012.
I would hope that Hathaway’s newest prediction, that this is “not the
second coming of the Maunder Minimum” or even a Dalton Minimum for that matter, holds true.
1Another way to examine the length and depth of a solar minimum is by counting spotless days. A “spotless day” is a day with no sunspots. Spotless days never happen during Solar Max but they are the “meat and potatoes” of solar minima.
Adding up every daily blank sun for the past three years, we find that the current solar minimum has had 362 spotless days (as of June 30, 2008).Compare that value to the total spotless days of the previous ten solar minima: 309, 273, 272, 227, 446, 269, 568, 534, ~1019 and ~931. The current count of 362 spotless days is not even close to the longest.
Though, Livingston and Penn seem to think we are entering into a grand minima via their recent paper.
As mentioned in “What’s next?”, we are now adding to the total of spotless days in this minima, and since the last update in that article, June 30th, 2008 where they mention this, we have added very few days with sunspots, perhaps 3 or 4.
Adding up every daily blank sun for the past three years, we find that the current solar minimum has had 362 spotless days (as of June 30, 2008).
So it would seem, that as of August 12th, 2008, we would likely have reached a total of 400 spotless days. The next milestone for recent solar minimas is 446 spotless days, not far off. It will be interesting to see where this current minima ends up.
h/t to Werner Weber
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Dan: I hope someone is following up on that Livingston and Penn paper. It seems like they’re on to something huge, and I’d love to see if their findings can be replicated/confirmed.
Replication is hard as the observations stretch over a decade or more. Confirmation is not needed in the sense of the observations not being good enough. Livingston is one of the best observers we have, using one of the best instruments in existence. So, the data obtained so far are the best anybody can do. What is needed is to see if the trend continues. I have been in recent contact will Bill Livingston and the trend has held up to and including even the few and tiny spots of late.
The AGW crowd would have us panic and take all sorts of drastic measures in the event that the planet is warming, but there’s been very little words of warning on what could turn out to be worse than warming. The last time we had a solar minimum there were roughly five billion less people on the planet than now. Granted, we have had major improvements in agricultural production since then, but has anyone looked at whether we can support the present population under anything even approaching the conditions of the last minimum?
I am torn on the possibility that we’re entering a minimum, but shouldn’t the scenario at least be studied. After all, a decent size volcanic eruption could produce similar results.
The one trend not discussed is that this cycle has set a record for the number of 20+ consecutive 0 sunspot days. Currently in the 5th such cycle (the 4th in June/July and the 4th and 5th were separated by a 3 day period of 10 sunspot count). The most 20+ spotless days in any other cycle was 3 in 1954.
I have no idea what significance this has, but it is interesting.
John Miller — You are right. We should at least be looking into and studying what is the most vulnerable of humans support systems. Food production has increasingly relied on the “farm as factory” concept where yields and mechanisation are king. The crops have been genetically changed to less resistance to weather changes, and more focused on increasing yeilds per acre in warmer climates. The agricultural changes have taken place over the last 30 years or so. A year without summer would be a catastrophe for the humans on Earth — There wouldn’t be much anyone could do about large scale crop failures due to cold weather.
Meanwhile, we dance with the AGW hoax ….
If only we as a species were smarter, and didn’t just play smart on TV.
Thought I’d throw this in here…
Decade has had fewest 90-degree days since 1930
Chicago Tribune, United States – 10 hours ago
http://www.chicagotribune.com/news/local/chi-tom-skilling-explainer-13aug13,0,918946.story
Leif,
Are these relationships (“may predict”, “are a good predictor”) based upon experimental oberservations (i.e. correlating prevoius trends) or are there derived physical mechanisms that can account for this?
As a physics HET grad student, I’ve been trying to learn solar physics on the side. However most of the articles I find that make predictions about solar activity and trends are based upon correlation methods and not defining causal mechanisms. Does this sound right?
Leif, has this Livingston and Penn graph showing the extrapolation to 2015 been updated anywhere to include data since 2006?
http://www.astroengine.com/wp-content/uploads/2008/08/mag1.png
David Archibald reckons that a weak Solar Cycle 24, followed by a weak #25, will result in such a global cooling that it will cut two weeks off the growing season – at each end
http://www.lavoisier.com.au/papers/articles/ArchibaldMarch2008.pdf
I don’t know where the two-weeks figure comes from, and I would like to see some documentation of it.
I wholeheartedly agree with the concerns expressed by John Miller, above.
I do not believe our food production and distribution system is ready to handle the load in adverse climate conditions.
Even if the sun were to start showing definite signs that cycle 24 was definitely starting, there would still be quite a few spotless to go during this minima.
By comparing the current count, only part way through the minima to previous counts of entire minimas, Dr. Hathaway is doing a disservice to his readers.
Has anyone, anywhere (England?) Ever kept track of “Cloudy” Days? If so, has anyone, anywhere, ever found a correlation between incidence of cloudy days, and sunspots?
Clark,
You wrote
“One question: Some of the sunspots from the last year were really small. I noted that the longest spotless minima were all from the late 19th/early 20th century. Were things that are counted as sunspots today counted as sunspots in 1890?”
My understanding of the situation is that “official” sunspots must conform to the same criteria as were first used by Wolf in the mid-19th century in terms of the type of telescope and area of the spot. So yes, things that are counted as sunspots today were counted as sunspots in 1890. This does not necessarily apply to sunspot data prior to the mid-19th century and and a number of researchers think that sunspot numbers for a number of early cycles needs to be increased 10 percent at least to compensate. This would mean that sunspot numbers for the Dalton minimum would be close to what Dr. Svalgaard is predicting for cycle 24.
August snow expected in the Rockies Friday –
Here’s what the National Weather Service forecasters in Boulder had to say this morning
“MODEL SNOW ALGORITHMS PUT OUT SOME IMPRESSIVE NUMBERS FOR AUGUST THAT MIGHT EVEN REQUIRE A RARE AUGUST HOISTING…THE GFS FOR INSTANCE A SWATH OF OVER 8 INCHES UP AND DOWN THE FRONT RANGE AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS. AT THIS POINT WILL SETTLE FOR MENTIONING SNOW BUT IF THE UPPER LOW REALLY SETTLES IN AS FORECAST COULD SEE TRAIL RIDGE ROAD OR MOUNT EVANS ROAD HAVING TO TEMPORARILY SHUT DOWN OVER THE HIGHER AREAS ON FRIDAY.”
It looks like this year the world with have the largest wheat harvest ever. It’s something of a misconception that agriculture is temperature limited. It is in some places like northern Europe, but in most places it’s precipitation limited. More rain = bigger harvests. No one seems to measure global precipitation, perhaps it’s too hard, but increasing wheat production does suggest the world got wetter in the last year. Which would fit with Svensmark’s theory.
@kum dollison (11:12:51) :
Has anyone, anywhere (England?) Ever kept track of “Cloudy” Days? If so, has anyone, anywhere, ever found a correlation between incidence of cloudy days, and sunspots?
I don’t have any hard numbers to show, but being an amateur astronomer in Southern norway for the last 8 years or so, I can say that the last 2 years have been significantly more cloudy (at least during evening times) than the years before. I can see it from the frequency of captured images. I need several hours of clear skies to do deep sky imaging, but the last couple of years have brought very unstable weather and lots of clouds. My impression is that similar effects are observed by others at least in Europe.
I know this is not very scientific, but perhaps it could pass as “anecdotal”.
@kum dollison (11:12:51) :
“…ever found a correlation between incidence of cloudy days, and sunspots?”
Henrik Svensmark, Danish National Space Center has been working in the field of Cosmoclimatology for at least 10 years.
http://www.space.dtu.dk/upload/institutter/space/research/sun-climate/isac/wp_103.pdf
It’s pretty clear that periods of low solar activity, which allow more GCR (Galactic Cosmic Radiation) to reach the earth, correlate very well with increased low cloud cover, which would cool the climate by increasing albedo (reflecting more solar energy back into space).
“will cut two weeks off the growing season – at each end”
If I remember correctly, Archibald’s study was for the middle to northern parts of the country, so it might be safe to say the growing season, on average in the Northern Hemisphere will be decreased by four weeks. I’ve been a control systems engineer for twenty years, so 4-H is a long time in the past, but let’s just assume that growing season length and crop yields are directly proportional after the plants get up enough to start producing. And again, let’s assume a twenty four week growing season. If we decrease that by 4 weeks, based upon our rough assumptions, we could be looking at a 15% reduction in crop yield. Even if I am wrong by a factor of 2 and we could quickly mobilize to double the amount of land in production, we’re looking at a potential 3.75% reduction in world wide food supplies.
Am I the only one who sees the possibility of this as a cause of concern?
What happened to sun cycle 24 starting in 2007 and that it was supposed to wreek havic on gps systemsand cell phones and that it could be the strongest ever?I guess when you are bias toward global warming you make up the rules ,or in this case pedictions, as you go that way you are never wrong.Now I see how this works.
I check out the Solar link at the right of this site every day. The Sun still looks like an egg yolk in a frying pan, without a mark on it.
.PREV DISCUSSION… /ISSUED 340 AM CDT WED AUG 13 2008/
A MAJOR CHANGE IN THE NOAM UPPER FLOW PATTERN IS BEGINNING. NOT SURE
IF THIS IS AN EARLY FALL TRANSITION OR A DROUGHT BUSTER…BUT THE
CHANGE SHOULD BE WELCOMED.
FOR TODAY AND THURSDAY…NORTH TEXAS WILL BE UNDER WEAKENING
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WITH LITTLE CHANCE OF RAINFALL AS TEMPERATURES
REMAIN NEAR NORMAL.
There are four possibilities, but only three have been mentioned.
1. Super Cycle.
2. Normal/Long
3. Maunder Type Event
And the fourth:
4. Younger Dryas Type Event
Dan (09:20:46) :
“I hope someone is following up on that Livingston and Penn paper. It seems like they’re on to something huge, and I’d love to see if their findings can be replicated/confirmed.”
[Warning – my facts may be wrong, read with care.] I agree, except that the paper was never published in a “proper” journal. It was submitted and rejected (don’t know why, possibly to speculative or needing more data). When it came to light, it took Livingston a few days to find the finished paper, he had only an early draft to send me.
So there’s little reason for people to be doing a follow up, and until the paper showed up recently, I think few people knew about it. On top of it all, to continue the study you need sunspots to measure, and those are in short supply. I figure Hathaway will finally announce that SC24 is underway (the +/- 6 month rule means that it can’t be before next February, and then the sunspots will fade away like Lewis Carroll’s Cheshire Cat before solar max occurs. All that will be left is a grin in the magnetic field.
And a lot of people wondering “What next?”
John-X (12:43:54) :
“http://www.space.dtu.dk/upload/institutter/space/research/sun-climate/isac/wp_103.pdf
It’s pretty clear that periods of low solar activity, which allow more GCR (Galactic Cosmic Radiation) to reach the earth, correlate very well with increased low cloud cover, which would cool the climate by increasing albedo (reflecting more solar energy back into space).”
Yes, but doesn’t that only apply to clean air devoid of condensation nuclei? That implies low level (high levels have more radiation-induced nuclei) and maritime regions (after rain washes out particulates). The net effect is just a couple percent in the affected area, I suspect most things we’d notice are more due to changes in wind circulation patterns.
Austin (13:12:21) :
“There are four possibilities, but only three have been mentioned.”
A number of sources suggest something like the Dalton Minimum which was only a couple cycles long. Some people don’t want to hazard a prediction beyond SC25, so those are sort of predictions for either Dalton or Maunder.
Like New England weather, we may have to wait until it’s over to explain it.
> Austin (13:12:21) :
> 4. Younger Dryas Type Event
The latest theory is that Younger-Dryas was the “nuclear winter” aftermath of a small asteroid, definitely smaller than the one behind the KT event 65 million years ago. See http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2007/09/070924172959.htm which comments on a “black mat” layer found in various places throughout North America. The “black mat” layer is associated with high levels of iridium (Hello!) and isiotopes of Helium that are not common on earth.
Thanks, John; that link was very informative.