From the Anchorage Daily News, some anecdotal evidence that we may not see an ice-free arctic this summer. I had previously blogged on the lateness of a 70 degree plus day in Anchorage, and now it looks like this may be one of the coolest summers on record there. A friend of mine that I have morning coffee with who is pilot that flew to Alaska’s western side to do some fishing told me a couple of days ago that the season is the “worst ever” and he’s an Alaskan native.
Gloomy summer headed toward infamy
CHILLY: Anchorage could hit 65 degrees for fewest days on record.
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So if the cold and drizzle are going to continue anyway, why not shoot for a record? The mark is well within reach, Albanese said:
MEASURING THE MISERY
In terms of “coldest summer ever,” however, a better measure might be the number of days Anchorage fails to even reach 60. There too, 2008 is a contender, having so far notched only 35 such days — far below the summer-long average of 88.
Unless we get 10 more days of 60-degree or warmer temperatures, we’re going to break the dismal 1971 record of only 46 such days, a possibility too awful to contemplate.
Still, according to a series of charts cobbled together Tuesday evening by a night-shift meteorologist in the weather service’s Anchorage office, the current summer clearly has broken company with the record-setting warmth of recent years. Consider:
• 70-degree days. So far this summer there have been two. Usually there are 15. Last year there were 21. In 2004 there were 49.
• 75-degree days. So far this summer there’ve been zero. Usually there are four. It may be hard to remember, but last year there were 21. In 2004 there were 23.
So are all bets off on global warming? Hardly, scientists say. Climate change is a function of long-term trends, not single summers or individual hurricanes.
Last year the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change concluded that it’s “unequivocal” the world is warming, considering how 11 of the warmest years on record have occurred in the past 13 years.
LA NINA
Federal meteorologists trace a lot of the cool weather to ocean temperatures in the South Pacific. When the seas off the coast of Peru are 2 to 4 degrees cooler than normal, a La Nina weather pattern develops, which brings cooler-than- normal weather to Alaska.
For most of the past year, La Nina (the opposite of El Nino, in which warmer-than-normal ocean temperatures occur off Peru) has prevailed. But that’s now beginning to change.
According to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration Web site, water temperatures in the eastern South Pacific began to warm this summer — and the weather should eventually follow.
Sun Tzu wrote something about attacking where the enemy is weak, not strong, where they do not expect. The Web is powerful and inexpensive. Maybe a site dedicated to the open discussion of AGW, and science in general. Where all views can be presented.
Perhaps call it “Watts Up with That” ?
My friend in Anchorage says while it is cold and wet, there aren’t quite as many mosquitoes as usual. Not as many small children carried off.
Funny thing about this summer in Anchorage is that I remember the really nice days from May and June and quickly forget the cold wet days. So my anecdotal assessment of the summer is that it’s been pretty nice. Compare my anecdotal weather reporting to the data and guess which one comes up short?
It reminds me of the phrase “the plural of anecdote is not data!” 🙂
Anchorage reports official temperatures at the Ted Stevens International Airport. I haven’t taken the time to give it a surface station once over, but even if it comes up clean with respect to microsite effects it certainly is influenced by Anchorage’s UHI. The daily high temp could be biased high as a result. Rather than looking at the daily high temperaures it would be informative to look at the number of degree heating days.
tty (04:25:27) & Anthony:
Graupel is probably another word for the same stuff, I’ve seen that described as a form of hail, though I’ve never really associated it with convective storms in New England. We often see it at the beginning of a snow season.
http://www.avalanche.org/~uac/encyclopedia/graupel.htm says
I think what I see is more the maritime layer – snow forms aloft, falls through supercooled cloud, then falls through cold Canadian air so it doesn’t have a chance to melt as it would if there was maritime air al the way to ground level.
http://amsglossary.allenpress.com/glossary/search?id=graupel1 says
Heavily rimed snow particles, often called snow pellets; often indistinguishable from very small soft hail except for the size convention that hail must have a diameter greater than 5 mm.
Sometimes distinguished by shape into conical, hexagonal, and lump (irregular) graupel.
Finally, http://emu.arsusda.gov/snowsite/rimegraupel/rg.html has some really great LT-SEM (Low Temperature Scanning Electron Microscope) images of rimed snowflakes and graupel.
As ever the retired engineer strikes a chord with me (h/t to you sir)
Let’s get real here folks:
1). The amount of money going into supporting the AGW debate vastly outweighs that going into the sceptic community
2). It is hugely politically incorrect to question the ‘consensus’ – just look at what went on with the “Great Global Warming Swindle” – any scientist who dares to put his head above the parapet or who dares to be associated with the sceptic community cannot expect to continue with life as normal
Sun Tzu also wrote:
i) Reckon before a battle; Know the Enemy and Know Yourself
ii) Find out the enemy situation first and then victory will be yours
iii) Win victory by modifying your tactics in accordance with changes in enemy conditions
iv) Move when it is to your advantage – act when success is certain
v) Concentrate your forces against the enemy and seize the right moment to act
I wonder, therfore, whether the time to start placing ads is now?
I am kind of with Stan’s post – Anthony is doing a great job with this as is Steve McIntyre at CA but I do feel there could be a use for a website that summarises the key findings to date from a sceptical point of view. I have some thoughts if people are interested.
[…] Watt’s Up With That? […]
Kornsnö (Snow Grain is the official English term, at least when it comes to aviation weather) is actually convective. Typically it occurs when you have low clouds with freezing temperatures near the cloud tops. When the sun heats the clouds convective movement starts and carries cloud drops up above the freezing level where they first supercool and then freeze. Swedish meteorologists call it “fikasnö” (Cofee-break snow) because it typically starts at 9-10 AM, traditional coffee-break time in Sweden. It also indicates very bad icing conditions aloft.
The article that mentioned Anthonys website was from the UK Telegraph; a newspaper that is rare in NOT being run by left leaning factions!
AGW is, as Algore says, the greatest crisis facing the world, not,of course for the reasons he proposes, but because it represents the ultimate example of the use of crisis hysteria and junk science to advance a political agenda. The danger lies in the success the AGW propagandizers have had in making this illusory climate crisis accepted conventional wisdom throughout the world. As a result, governments, businesses, educational institutions, and virtually all of world society is proceeding headlong to implement programs with virtually no possibility of positive effect and incredibly high probability of massively negative outcomes for human prosperity, human freedom and human life.
The AGW debate has never been driven by science, but by politics and I believe the only way that reason can prevail in this literally life or death debate is for the webs of collusion, both political and financial, which connect the leading purveyors this complex fraud to be brought to light and broadcast widely and repeatedly. Unfortunately almost all of the world’s institutions capable of performing such a task are firmly in the thrall of the AGW propagandists, although perhaps a series of well produced and documented videos on YouTube could get the ball rolling. The crowds there seem to have a predilection for conspiracy theories, though they seem to favor money grubbing capitalists as their preferred villains, which is interesting in itself, since almost all the successful conspiracies of history have been perpetrated by virulent anti-capitalists. Admittedly this approach has great peril for reducing the debate to competing ad hominems, a style of argument that I abhor, but twenty years of rational argument based on evidence has had little apparent effect on the Greyhound bus bearing down on the prospects for our future. I fear the the target audience lacks the intellectual sophistication to evaluate the scientific evidence given the easy acceptance of the “settled science” claim regarding climatology, a science so unsettled that, by comparison, psychology looks like plane geometry, which makes adapting the detested tactics of the adversary more acceptable, to me at least, since the consequences of the continuing precedence of the AGW illusion poses such an extreme threat to our and everyone else’s future.
Colder here in Wallowa County than last year and last month. Again. It also seems like it is taking MUCH longer to warm up from the night air as well. We don’t hit peak day temps till around 6:00 PM or so.
Maybe we could get a movie made of Fallen Angels by Larry Niven, Jerry Pournelle, and Michael Flynn.
“…but I do feel there could be a use for a website that summarises the key findings to date from a sceptical point of view. I have some thoughts if people are interested…”
Paul,
I am very much in agreement that the history of this scare be documented.
We are aware that there are regular scares, both of an Ice-Age developing and Global Warming, about every half-century. This is neatly out of effective human memory, because the people actually making the decisions seem to cycle on about a 25 year basis.
This particular scare has been characterised by a lot of lying and reversal of positions – I believe that someone should actually archive the full history for the benefit of future generations before it becomes obvious that the world is cooling and everyone hurries to adjust their position yet again. The IPCC reports are in public space, but a lot of the underlying work is hard to get hold of…
I think an ad is an excellent idea. I’m good for $100.00. I would enjoy a sentence / paragraph /point competition.
David Wendt: That has got to be one of the most succinct descriptions I’ve seen of the dilemma we face with the whole AGW
monstrosity. Despite being discredited scientifically, and even more so now, with the quiet sun, cooling sea, and a cooling planet, it has taken on a life of its own, with money, politics, and egos involved. The AGW industry will not go down easily, nor without a nasty battle.
So far, 22 days out of 28 days in July the average daily temperature has been below that of last year. That is, 79% of the time, we have been colder than last year. And 2007 was colder than 2006. We are going to have a cold, long, wet winter. By the way, my bats are abandoning their babies just like I thought they might. When they fledge, they don’t have the strength to fly from the roost and are instead falling onto the attic floor because they are underfed and small for their age. They never make it into the air again. Another farmer confirmed that the same thing is happening where his bats roost.
Too bad about the bats, Pam. They are fantastic creatures. Coincidentally, we had one flying around inside the house one evening about a week ago. It was the first time it had happened in the 20 years we’ve been here. Managed to catch it when it stopped to rest (it had flown into the bedroom, and I shut the door), gently picking it up with a rag, and with rubber gloves, and tossing it out the window. We see them flying around at night, gobbling insects, just never had one “visit” us inside. I’m sure he was much happier outside.
Perhaps money would be better spent on a TOMA (to of mind awareness) campaign of banner ads. These ads could have a grabber headline something like “The Truth is Out there” or such, something that many people might find familiar. Then the ad would direct them to this site and Climate Audit with the encouragement that the debate is not over and to judge for themselves. You could flood different markets and media with this campaign over a longer period of time. Every advertising exec knows that the average joe can be persuaded if he sees and hears something often and long enough. Keep telling them to go check the sites out for themselves and they eventually will. This approach also eliminates any rebuttal argument over the wording or content of a press release or article. Just get more people to these two sites and things will happen.
Sorry, mistype, TOMA is Top of Mind Awareness.
[…] sky temperature." Solar radio waves could signal global cooling: Solomon – FP Comment Anchorage’s record setting cold summer 27 07 2008 From the Anchorage Daily News, some anecdotal evidence that we may not see an ice-free […]
Update on this article… I checked the AccuWeather records for Anchorage, and through August 20th here are the results:
Days at 75 or above: 0
Days at 70 or above: 2 (3 is the record)
Days at 65 or above: 15 (16 is the record)
Days at 60 or above: 55 (46 is the record)
Interestingly, Yahoo news has a story today about the arctic having an unusually warm autumn (as predicted by this article) but I don’t recall them reporting on the cool Alaskan summer. How many people, do you think, realize they are only reporting half the story.
I’d be curious to know if Alaska also is having a warm autumn
“I think it depends on if Those Opposed To Hansen (TOTH) want to stoop down to his level and attempt to begin a PR war or not. (I just made TOTH up by the way, and I’m running with it!)”
Gotta Love it! Toth, the Egyptian god of Science and Writing!
BTW, Orlando wind chill tonight is predicted at 26 to 29 F (!). I suspect that the Alaskan Express is headed south. Expect ‘black humor’ about global warming to spike in the next few months.
Maybe it’s time for a Global Warming Joke Book? It is almost impossible to defend against well done humor…
What does Al Gore call someone who buys Carbon Credits from himself? “Competition”.
What do you call snow in Orlando? “2 inches of Global Warming”.
How do you know Global Warming is real? “I told my computer to tell me it was, and it did!!!!”
What do you call putting a thermometer near a hot building? “Precision”.
I’m sure folks can come up with many many more much better…
“Al Gore said over the weekend that global warming is more serious than terrorism. Unless the terrorist is on your plane, then that extra half a degree doesn’t bother you so much.” –Jay Leno
“Governor Schwarzenegger spoke about the dangers of global warming. Schwarzenegger’s exact words were: fire, hot, bad.” –Conan O’Brien
“According to a new U.N. report, the global warming outlook is much worse than originally predicted. Which is pretty bad when they originally predicted it would destroy the planet.” –Jay Leno
One more:
GLOBAL WARMING FOUND AT EQUATOR
Macapa — New evidence of global warming has been found in this Brazilian city at the mouth of the Amazon River.
Dr. Bruno Penwicky PHD, Professor of Climatology at Gomer State University, said evidence of warming is “incontrovertible”.
“There’s lots of palm trees and stuff, plus it’s always hot and humid here.” Prof. Clinckerdinck, head of an international team of scientists, has been in Macapa for a month, studying the phenomena caused by global warming.
“We walk up and down the beach all day, taking air and water samples. Then we sit under beach umbrellas and analyze the results. I’m telling you, it’s frightening.”
The professor then excused himself, mumbling something about “mai tais” and “nap”.
With apologies to bad poets everywhere …
As I was sungazing through the air
I saw a spot that wasn’t there
It wasn’t there again today
I wish to God It’d go away.