Yesterday I showed satellite imagery of the North Pole and areas into northern Canada. It was still quite icebound.
Today I offer this graph from the National Snow and Ice Data Center, which was oft cited back in early June with the phrase “if this trend continues…”.
Click for larger image – annotation added
You can see the source graph here, updated daily:
Nature is a kick in the pants, isn’t she?
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I apologize to Leif re previous a bit over the top, after all he could say the same thing about me, not nice… Anyway I posted this on Lucia’s blackboard.
1. “I think one of the main points missed in all these posts is that weather over time becomes climate and therefore anything that determines weather (sun, soot, volcanoes, wind, ocean water movements etc) in the end determines climate. Is this a fair statement?”
2. Her reply:”Of course that’s a fair statement.”
3. My reply:Ergo the sun must have an effect on climate even if you can’t show a correlation?
BTW she has falsified ALL adjusted unadjusted etc etc… IPCC projections as well as all invented data put by RC and shes a AGW’er! LOL
“They disintegrated, fell to pieces in a very short period of time.”
Yeah, that could well be the “failure mode”. Once parts of it break the rest of it becomes more unstable and it breaks up. But overall, the net impact is for the shelf to disappear and a new one grows to replace it. There was a recent study where they took samples of the ocean floor under a shelf or shelves and determined by the sedimentation that the areas alternated between ice cover and ice free at fairly regular intervals and concluded that there was probably nothing unusual going on currently.
Temperatures in Antarctica with the exception of one area, have been at record lows. There wouldn’t be any “melting” going on because that area isn’t warming. In fact, there has been little to no warming at all in most of the Southern Hemisphere.
Bottom line is that the cause isn’t due to temperature change. It could also be due to changes in glacier speeds. Ice is accumulating in Antarctica so that might be changing the glacier speeds which could change how the shelf behaves, too.
But I think he will be the first to admit that absence of evidence is not evidence of absence.
And correlation does not prove causation. However, the absence of correlation is proof of the absence of causation.
The problem with a TSI / earth climate link is not lack of evidence, it’s a lack of correlation (and basic physics).
Having said that, the link between length of solar cycle and climate is suggestive of a causal relationship, and Svensmark’s clouds / cosmic radiation link looks to be a plausible mechanism.
One thing I just found was that it appears that the entire West Antarctica ice sheet slides into the ocean at times for reasons not exactly understood but seem unrelated to climate.
“MacAyeal was “shocked” to find that the ice sheet collapsed into the ocean at three irregular intervals — 190,000 years ago, 330,000 years ago, and 750,000 years ago.”
And here is an interesting article:
http://news.nationalgeographic.com/news/2007/07/070705-antarctica-ice.html
In the past 800,000 years, the warmest period was the last interglacial when temperatures were about 4.5 C warmer than now. The coldest were immediately before the end of the last ice age when the glaciation reached its maximum and temperatures were about 10 C colder than today. So in the last cycle we went from the warmest temperatures in 800,000 years to the coldest in the same time period.
The temperatures so far in this interglacial seem fairly mild as I believe the highest temperatures so far were during the Holocene Optimum which was, if I remember correctly, about 2-3 C warmer than today.
Today’s temperatures are neither unprecedented nor particularly high. If anything, the rage of change in North America since 1998 (-0.63 degrees per decade) and since January 2007 should be causing alarm as a continuation of that rate of change would put us back in ice age conditions within about 50 years or so from now if it continues.
Sort of related, but not sure if you have covered this:
Noctilucent clouds (NLCs).
Of course this article speaks of global warming as a possible source, without elobarating on how that could be:
http://science.nasa.gov/headlines/y2003/19feb_nlc.htm
So, if these clouds exist at 50 miles up, they must reflect sun light during the day or, do they add to the greenhouse effect?
I thought that one idea was that less solar activity meant more galactic radiation, which leads to more cloud formation. The article gives the reason for the ice crystal forming as unknown. However, galactic radiation would be a possible source. Any thoughts?
MCrats
BVsc, MSc (biology), Msc (computer), PhD (kinetics/statistics). My dad was a well known physicist/meteorologist WMO, he would be revolving in his grave if he saw the trash being put out by AGW.
Summary: <<
Papers: 27 Cites/paper: 4.22 h-index: 7 AWCR: 6.34
Citations: 114 Cites/author: 64.12 g-index: 9 AW-index: 2.52
Years: 74 Papers/author: 15.52 hc-index: 3 AWCRpA: 3.82
Cites/year: 1.54 Authors/paper: 2.41 hI-index: 2.72
hI,norm: 4
Hirsch a=2.33, m=0.09
Contemporary ac=2.78
Cites/paper 4.22/3.0/0 (mean/median/mode)
Authors/paper 2.41/2.0/1 (mean/median/mode)
9 paper(s) with 1 author(s)
7 paper(s) with 2 author(s)
5 paper(s) with 3 author(s)
3 paper(s) with 4 author(s)
3 paper(s) with 5 author(s)
some of his work
1,”The Diffusion Coefficients and Velocities of Fall in Air of Atmospheric Condensation Nuclei”,0,”Proc. Roy. Irish Acad”,””,””,”http://scholar.google.com/scholar?num=100&hl=en&lr=&cites=5373013672509268880″
2,””The determination of the mass and size of atmospheric condensation nuclei”,1936,”Transactions of the Faraday Society”,”xlink.rsc.org”,”http://xlink.rsc.org/?DOI=TF9363201175″,”http://scholar.google.com/scholar?num=100&hl=en&lr=&cites=17975158569736452415″
2,”Evaporation and transpiration in the Irish climate”,1953,””,”Dublin: Meteorological Service, Technical Note”,””,”http://scholar.google.com/scholar?num=100&hl=en&lr=&cites=2200796675570335749″
“An analysis of evapotranspiration observations at Valentia observatory August 1952-July 1956″,1957,””,”Dublin: Meteorological Service, Technical note”,””,”http://scholar.google.com/scholar?num=100&hl=en&lr=&cites=11372600545723254576″
Atmospheric Condensation Nuclei”,1935,””,”adsabs.harvard.edu”,”http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/1935Natur.135..654N”,”http://www.google.com/search?hl=en&lr=&q=Nolan+Atmospheric+Condensation+Nuclei”
good day sir.
“omegaman66 (00:56:54) :
Where I live the temperature drops at night and rises during the day. I am pretty sure that the reason for this is the sun. ;-)”
Actually, i’m pretty convinced the reason for this is the Earth rotating. I’d be very surprised to learn otherwise.
vincent (16:34:31) wrote (in response to my asking for his credentials after flaming Leif): “MCrats BVsc, MSc (biology), Msc (computer), PhD (kinetics/statistics).”
Interesting. But anyone could claim that, couldn’t they? In fact, your entire response revolved around YOUR FATHER’S CV. Can you be more specific about YOURS? What schools/universities? What papers did you author? Where can we read a copy of your dissertation? What is your real name (so whatever you claim can be verified)?
The curious are still in the dark regarding someone who claims to be such a credentialed scientist!
Jack Koenig, Editor
The Mysterious Climate Project
http://www.climateclinic.com
[…] When Graphs Attack! Yesterday I showed satellite imagery of the North Pole and areas into northern Canada. It was still quite […] […]
Basically a glacier or icesheet is a mechanism to transport ice from where it doesn’t melt to where it does melt. This is true irrespective of whether the climate is warming or cool and is true at the coldest point of an ice age. If it weren’t true, the Earth would be an ice and snowball.
An icesheet over water is prone to large forces from wind. The wind over hundreds or thousands of square kilometers will produce enough force to break off large areas of ice.
Claims that the cause is warmer temps or warmer water is like a lot of claims in climate science. There is little evidence and it is mostly speculation.
Interesting article in The New Scientist of 2006 where Leif Svalgaard is purportedly quoted as follows
Quote: Svalgaad warns: “If the Earth does cool during the next sunspot crash and we do nothing, when the sun’s magnetic activity returns, global warming will return with a vengeance.”
From issue 2569 of New Scientist magazine, 18 September 2006, page 32-36
So where does he stand in the debate?
Mc crats :the top analysis hartzing’s publish or perish) are all my papers (27) dealing in all cases with complex statistical analysis of biological and weather data (I will provide you with one one example: “effects of heat and humidity on thyroid function” look it up on the net yourself) I will not publicly divulge (would you?) any further information to you. Are you prepared to divulge your qualifications?
Mcrats
The hartzing analysis below is ALL my work mainly dealing with Physiology, Biology, Bioinformatics (MSc) and a thingy called pharmacokinetics (PhD, University of Queensland) which is for all practical purposes is best fit modeling of data. All this involved complex statistics The actual papers cited on the previous post were of course my father’s work. On this basis I think i should be able to comment on the validity of data shown on this site. I ain’t going to divulge any more on a public forum such as this.. or will you provide your degrees publications ect?
Anyway this will be my last word on this chao and have a nice day
Papers: 27 Cites/paper: 4.22 h-index: 7 AWCR: 6.34
Citations: 114 Cites/author: 64.12 g-index: 9 AW-index: 2.52
Years: 74 Papers/author: 15.52 hc-index: 3 AWCRpA: 3.82
Cites/year: 1.54 Authors/paper: 2.41 hI-index: 2.72
hI,norm: 4
Hirsch a=2.33, m=0.09
Contemporary ac=2.78
Cites/paper 4.22/3.0/0 (mean/median/mode)
Authors/paper 2.41/2.0/1 (mean/median/mode)
9 paper(s) with 1 author(s)
7 paper(s) with 2 author(s)
5 paper(s) with 3 author(s)
3 paper(s) with 4 author(s)
3 paper(s) with 5 author(s)
A couple of simple questions:
If the sun does not have much influence on climate, what makes the polar climate polar and the tropical climate tropical?
Why is it warmer in winter in Florida than it is in Maryland?
Why are summer temperatures almost the same for those two locations?
Why are the annual temperature swings in the north much larger than the south?
What would happen if the Earth’s axis was not tilted?
“Where I live the temperature drops at night and rises during the day. I am pretty sure that the reason for this is the sun. 😉
Actually, i’m pretty convinced the reason for this is the Earth rotating. I’d be very surprised to learn otherwise.”
And if there was no sun, would the Earth’s rotation cause temperature changes?
One would think that such an intelligent person would be able to spell the name of the person they’re responding to. And even to decide on a name to use of their own. I guess all those fields are so tippy top secret that you can’t “divulge” your name.
I’ve read the thread fromt the bottom up and was a little confused… are Rex and Vincent the same poster?
If so, I think at the very least we can conclude she/he is not a rocket scientist. ; – )
My neighbor had a dog named REX. His vet was named Vincent.
Small world, eh?
Off topic, but… I notice that Hadley had 7 previous months changed in their 2008/06 data, versus 2008/05 data. The changes are…
Month 2008/05 2008/06
==============
2007/07 0.403 0.406
2007/08 0.361 0.362
2007/09 0.413 0.410
2007/10 0.366 0.367
2007/12 0.201 0.212
2008/01 0.053 0.054
2008/03 0.430 0.445
For the first time since mid-2004, Hadley’s anomaly is higher than GISS. Before anybody gets their tinfoil hat on too tight, GISS is the odd man out here. They fell from May to June, whilst UAH, RSS, and Hadley went up.
In the 12-month running means http://www.woodfortrees.org/plot/rss/mean:12/from:2000/plot/uah/mean:12/from:2000/plot/hadcrut3gl/mean:12/from:2000/plot/gistemp/mean:12/from:2000 you’ll notice that the Hadley temperature anomaly seems to be levelling off, while the others continue their powerdive. To be fair, hadley’s 12-month mean started falling in June 2007, versus August 2007 for the others.
vincent (15:07:32) :
I apologize to Leif re previous a bit over the top, after all he could say the same thing about me
Accepted. Although I would never say something like that to anybody.
Rasmin: Quote: Svalgaad warns: “If the Earth does cool during the next sunspot crash and we do nothing, when the sun’s magnetic activity returns, global warming will return with a vengeance.”
The quote is out of context [by New Scientist, not by you]. My statement was an answer to a hypothetical: “if the Sun is important for climate change and AGW is on top of that, then…”. Sometimes the press gets wrong a bit wrong or has its own agenda to push…
All: please stop bashing Vincent. Have y’all not something important to discuss?
Mcates : Sorry I should have mentioned this. My PC remembered the old “Rex” is should have been Vincent. My name is Vincent Guerrini. I ain’t a rocket scientist or anything of the like I was just taken aback by the statement that the sun has nothing to do with climate. The last thing I would like is to be blowing my trumpet on a forum like this, but i though that mentioning the fact was important (since he would also I presume have various PG degrees) Of course he is entitled to his opinion but so am I. Anyway I am a global warming skeptic and proud of it LOL
Steve Moore (18:03:11) :
And if there was no sun, would the Earth’s rotation cause temperature changes?
Don’t be specious. The variations in Earth’s climate, whether daily or seasonal, are not caused by variations in solar output. Whether they are in the long term is another point.
Tack själv Leif. Ursäkt igen. Skulle vi inte all vara i arbete? LOL
“David Gladstone (14:15:22) :
Paul, given that so little is known about underwater volcanoes, I think it’s really premature to say that they cannot contribute to melting. I read those posts and didn’t see anything definitive. My instinct says there is something there worth studying and I trust that more than anything else. Remember, the 1999 eruption was as large as that of Vesuvius circa 70 AD, and it is certain that it was not the only one. ”
I am in agreement that more study is required, after all, Volcanologists didn’t believe the volcanos lining the ridge could blow until they saw the evidence. I’m not ruling out the heating either and that should be explored. What I am saying is that it is unlikely.
To me, it’s most likely a combination of factors, AMO, weaker ice, sun, prevailing weather conditions etc. IMHO, I don’t think we can pin it down solely onto one thing at this stage.
Steve Moore (18:03:11) :
“Where I live the temperature drops at night and rises during the day. I am pretty sure that the reason for this is the sun. 😉
Actually, i’m pretty convinced the reason for this is the Earth rotating. I’d be very surprised to learn otherwise.”
And if there was no sun, would the Earth’s rotation cause temperature changes?
What came first? The Chicken or the Egg? 🙂