Last week I posted the University of Alabama, Huntsville (UAH) Microwave Sounder Unit (MSU) global temperature anomaly data for February 2008 with a note that it showed only a marginal increase from January 2008 data, and remained near zero.
The February 2008 global temperature anomaly data from RSS (Remote Sensing Systems of Santa Rosa, CA) is out, and is in good agreement with that. You can see it the raw RSS data yourself here
First here is UAH satellite derived temperature anomaly. For February 2008, it shows a slight rebound from the -0.046°C value of January 2008 to 0.016°C for a slight change (∆T) of .062°C upwards.
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Next we have the RSS satellite derived temperature anomaly. It also shows a slight rebound from the -0.080°C value of January 2008 to 0.007°C for a slight change (∆T) of .0.073°C upwards. The anomaly remains near zero as does the UAH data.
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It appears the La Niña in the Pacific and the solar minimum are continuing to affect temperatures globally, resulting in this cooler period for the last 13 months starting in January 2007.
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Below: A plot of sunspots showing our current position in the solar minimum. Note the uncertainty for the two projections of the next cycle 24.
I’ll plot the other metrics (GISS, HadCRUT) as soon as they are available.
Ian, if that was the case, the baseline would be different for each month.
Sorry, didn’t read that last parathetical. I’m more confused than ever.
The GISS global anomaly was 31, which matched the January anomaly. Watts is smarter than I am, and his grpahs are prettier, but I’ve put a little trend analysis on the data here: http://digitaldiatribes.wordpress.com/2008/03/10/march-2008-update-on-global-temperature-trends/
My focus has been on the trend in the slope of rolling 120-month data. The latest 10-year trend line is positive, but continuing to decrease, which means warming is certainly not accelerating, but is decreasing. This doesn’t necessarily mean cooling quite yeat, but it’s at odds with a claim of accelerating warming.
this one is about an hour old
http://www.iscid.org/ubbcgi/ultimatebb.cgi?ubb=get_topic&f=6&t=000370&p=81
Aaron, Dodo, Andrew: Oh yes, I am quite aware of the Southern Hemisphere, I’ve been throwing the weather conditions down there at my Progressive best friend for the last year or so. I think I finally got through to him…
So Ok. They are calling for a much warmer anomaly. As R John says, they are pushing it. We just got two feet of snow in the Niagara Peninsula and -15 temps just about every night since. I think I’ll wait until this time next month and then see what we actually got. I tend to trust Anthony and the people posting info here rather than the john davidson types.
I don’t see anything that makes it clear (whether the monthly anomaly is adjusted to remove seasonl trends, or if it is based on the entire base period). It just doesn’t seem right that they’d use just that month of every year, especially since they try to show “warm” season and “cool” season later. Removing the seasonal variation seems counter productive. Especially since Enso, volcano, etc. activity doesn’t happen according to our calander and adhere to seasonal patterns.
It may be something interesting to look at, but it a bad way to handle the data.
Otter, yes expected Feb to be cooler than Jan for the same. February was far more brutal than Jan for us in Michigan (March has been bad, but not as bad as Feb). Aparently China and Russia warmed enough to make our contribution to the record null.
Dr. Shaviv has e-mailed me with a response to the RealClimate Slurs.
While I understand how volcano eruptions can effect global mean temperature, I am not so sure how El Nina or El Nino can. These weater events redistribute temperature accross the planet, so they should not effect the “Global Mean”. Is there a problem on how the mean is measured? How is it possible for an “El Nino” event to actualy raisethe Global Mean Temperature, like in 1998?
4. The extremely close correlation between the changes in the mean global temperature and the small changes in the rotational velocity of the Earth in the past 150 years (see Fig. 2.2 of http://www.fao.org/DOCREP/005/Y2787E/y2787e03.htm), which has been ignored by the mainstream climatologists, leaves little room for a human influence on climate. This close correlation results from the action of galactic vacuum density waves on the Sun and on the Earth (see Section II). Note that temperature lags rotation by 6 years.
5. From the steady decrease of the rotational velocity of the Earth that set in in Dec. 2003, it can reliably be concluded that the mean Earth temperature will decrease again in 2010 for the duration of three decades as it did from 1872 to 1913 and from 1942 to 1972.
6. The RSS AMSU satellite measurements show that the global temperature has not increased since 2001 despite the enormous worldwide CO2 emissions. Since 2006 it has been decreasing again.
II. Physical explanation for the strong correlation between fluctuations of the rotational velocity and changes of the mean surface temperature of the Earth
Despite its great successes, the gravitational theory of the great physicist Albert Einstein, General Relativity, (which is of a purely geometric nature and is totally incompatible with the highly successful quantum theory) must be discarded because this theory is completely irreconcilable with the extremely large energy density of the vacuum that has been accurately measured in the Casimir experiment.
Seaon Theory, a new theory of gravitation based on quantum mechanics that was developed eight decades after General Relativity, not only covers the well-known Einstein-effects but also shows up half a dozen post-Einstein effects that occur in nature. From a humanitarian standpoint, the most important super-Einsteinian physical phenomenon is the generation of small-amplitude longitudinal gravitational waves by the motion of the supermassive bodies located at the center of our galaxy, their transmission throughout the Galaxy, and the action of these waves on the Sun, the Earth and the other celestial bodies through which they pass. These vacuum density waves, which carry with them small changes in the electromagnetic properties of the vacuum, occur in an extremely large period range from minutes to millennia.
On the Sun, these vacuum waves modulate the intensity of the thermonuclear energy conversion process within the core, and this has its effect on all physical quantities of the Sun (this is called solar activity). This in turn has its influences on the Earth and the other planets. In particular, the solar wind and the solar magnetic field strength are modulated which results in large changes in the intensity of the cosmic radiation reaching the Earth. Cosmic rays produce condensation nuclei so that the cloud cover of the atmosphere and the Earth albedo also change.
NOAA must have their Feb numbers out.
http://www.noaanews.noaa.gov/stories2008/20080313_coolest.html
Gerhard Loebert:
You’re going to need a few citations for that, because it doesn’t even come close to passing the sniff test. Especially since you appear to have said this with a straight face:
Dear Mr. Atmoz. Here’s the rest of my story:
the Earth albedo also change.
On the Earth, the steady stream of vacuum density waves produces parts-per-billion changes in a large number of geophysical quantities. The most important quantities are the radius, circumference, rotational velocity, gravitational acceleration, VLBI baseline lengths, and axis orientation angles of the Earth, as well as the orbital elements of all low-earth-orbit satellites. All of these fluctuations have been measured.
Irrefutable evidence for the existence of this new, super-Einsteinian wave type is provided by the extremely close correlation between changes of the mean temperature and fluctuations of the mean rotational velocity of the Earth. (see the figure referred to in Section I.4). Einsteinian theory cannot explain this amazing correlation between two physical quantities that seem to be completely unrelated.
While the rotational velocity of the Earth and the thermonuclear energy conversion process on the Sun react simultaneously to the passage of a vacuum density wave, a time span of 6 years is needed for the energy to be transported from the core of the Sun to the Earth’s atmosphere and for the latter’s reaction time.
As can be seen, super-Einsteinian gravitation reveals the true cause of climate change.
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2. There is no direct connection between CO2 emission and climate warming. This is shown by the fact that these two physical quantities have displayed an entirely different temporal behaviour in the past 150 years. Whereas the mean global temperature varied in a quasi-periodic manner, with a mean period of 70 years, the CO2 concentration has been increasing exponentially since the 1950’s. The sea level has been rising and the glaciers have been shortening practically linearly from 1850 onwards. Neither time trace showed any reaction to the sudden increase of hydrocarbon burning from the 1950’s onwards.
3. The hypothesis that the global warming of the past decades is man-made is based on the results of calculations with climate models in which the main influence on climate is not included. The most important climate driver (besides solar luminosity) comes from the interplay of solar activity, interplanetary magnetic field strength, cosmic radiation intensity, and cloud cover of the Earth atmosphere. As is shown in Section II, this phenomenon is generated by the action of galactic vacuum density waves on the core of the Sun.
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In my opinion, those persons who cannot quantitatively explain the extremely close correlation between the mean global surface temperature and the small changes in the rotational velocity of the Earth should exercise restraint in criticising other peoples’ work.
Dr. Loebert,
Wow.
Mike Bryant