January 2008 was an exceptional month for our planet, with a significant cooling, especially since January 2007 started out well above normal.
January 2008 capped a 12 month period of global temperature drops on all of the major well respected indicators. I have reported in the past two weeks that HadCRUT, RSS, UAH, and GISS global temperature sets all show sharp drops in the last year.
Also see the recent post on what the last 10 years looks like with the same four metrics – 3 of four show a flat trendline.
Here are the 4 major temperature metrics compared top to bottom, with the most recently released at the top:
UK’s Hadley Climate Research Unit Temperature anomaly (HadCRUT) Dr. Phil Jones:
Reference: above data is HadCRUT3 column 2 which can be found here
description of the HadCRUT3 data file columns is here
NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS) Dr. James Hansen:
Reference: GISS dataset temperature index data
University of Alabama, Huntsville (UAH) Dr. John Christy:
Reference: UAH lower troposphere data
Remote Sensing Systems of Santa Rosa, CA (RSS):
Reference: RSS data here (RSS Data Version 3.1)
The purpose of this summary is to make it easy for everyone to compare the last 4 postings I’ve made on this subject.
I realize that not all the graphs are of the same scale, so my next task will be to run a combined graphic of all the data-sets on identical amplitude and time scales to show the agreements or differences such a graph would illustrate.
UPDATE: that comparison has been done here
Here is a quick comparison and average of ∆T for all metrics shown above:
| Source: | Global ∆T °C |
| HadCRUT |
– 0.595 |
| GISS | – 0.750 |
| UAH | – 0.588 |
| RSS | – 0.629 |
| Average: | – 0.6405°C |
For all four metrics the global average ∆T for January 2007 to January 2008 is: – 0.6405°C
This represents an average between the two lower troposphere satellite metrics (RSS and UAH) and the two land-ocean metrics (GISS and HadCRUT). While some may argue that they are not compatible data-sets, since they are derived by different methods (Satellite -Microwave Sounder Unit and direct surface temperature measurements) I would argue that the average of these four metrics is a measure of temperature, nearest where we live, the surface and near surface atmosphere.
UPDATE AND CAVEAT:
The website DailyTech has an article citing this blog entry as a reference, and their story got picked up by the Drudge report, resulting in a wide distribution. In the DailyTech article there is a paragraph:
“Anthony Watts compiled the results of all the sources. The total amount of cooling ranges from 0.65C up to 0.75C — a value large enough to erase nearly all the global warming recorded over the past 100 years. All in one year time. For all sources, it’s the single fastest temperature change ever recorded, either up or down.”
I wish to state for the record, that this statement is not mine: “–a value large enough to erase nearly all the global warming recorded over the past 100 years”
There has been no “erasure”. This is an anomaly with a large magnitude, and it coincides with other anecdotal weather evidence. It is curious, it is unusual, it is large, it is unexpected, but it does not “erase” anything. I suggested a correction to DailyTech and they have graciously complied.
UPDATE #2 see this post from Dr. John R. Christy on the issue.
UPDATE #3 see the post on what the last 10 years looks like with the same four metrics – 3 of four show a flat trendline.
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Well here is what it all comes to. You can see “experts” running both directions. The fact is that the cooling or warming of the Earth has been debated for quite some time now. Some want to call it climate change others call it weather patterns. I call it ” lets not worry about it so much because if we caused it then it is not reversible. If we didn’t cause it, then the same it is not reversible.” I am sorry but, you can’t tell me that with all the polution we put in the air during the industrial revolution of the US wouldn’t have caused more harm than the over regulated cars, trucks, boats, and Factories of today. Not to mention that even if we as a community try to cut down on polution and so called carbon emmissions that China doesn’t just make up for with all of their un-regulated factories. So before the green peacers come and try to destroy my argument, look it up and do some research somewhere else than your green peacer websites. The fact still remains that the average temp in the past 30 or so years only rose about .6 of a degree. If that causes the ice caps to melt then there is nothing we can do to change that. Now we are getting reports that the average temp is now falling. So we all need to stop buying into the Al Gore garbage and do your own research and get your own ideas. If we can’t change it then why worry about it. Just live your life to the fullest and when the Earth is still around when you die then you can finally be happy and stop making the rest of us so miserable. 🙂
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I can’t believe the bollux you’ve tried to pull here. You’ve taken one abnormally warm month, and one abnormally cool month, noted that they’re 12 months apart (very convenient) and in January (also very convenient) and called it a one-year trend. It’s not – it’s just two months at opposite ends of the spectrum, that just happened to be in the right order for you to make your spurious argument. Feelings aside, your facts need checking.
Dear sir ,
I am enclosing a link to a forum where your work is being discussed. My hope is that you woukd take the time to read it and comment. I am not qualified to defend your work, which is being attacked. You and I are both called conspiracy theorists. You for your work, me for bringing your work into the discussion.
please help. I know its a poker forum, but it is a serious discussion pertaining to your research.Thank you.
http://pokerforums.fulltiltpoker.com/viewtopic.php?t=55733&postdays=0&postorder=asc&start=0
The data is interesting, but as many have indicated: while concentrating on two consecutive data points and calling for a closer inspection of the system due to an exceptionally large range generation may be good QC methodology, and good science procedure, labeling that single large range swing as an indicator of profound change in the system, without further investigation is terrible procedure, in the field of QC or in basic science. It smacks of hidden agenda driven by the power of dogma. Very bad science. “Hey, fellows, how do we explain this?” is a reasonable, science-based response; “Hey fellows, we just disproved the hypothesis!” is the response of the village idiot, or a politician on the hunt for sucker votes.
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Well, it’s cooler her ein Alaska than it’s been in years. the ocean is cooler and the fish won’t come in. Will Al Gore have to give back his reward?
On the 9th of April I asked about the effects of volcanic action and the earths’ molten core on this discussion. I saw no response but today saw a news clip photo that claims there are massive eruptions going on under the arctic ocean. Anyone else see this and is it of any interest?
REPLY: Try looking at the main page
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You all forget that the world’s CO2 content was only .031 50 years ago and now is .038, caused mostly by one country. When you change the world’s CO2 content by 25% in 50 years something is going to change. As the world grows, this will pale to what the the US has done in 50 years, the next 20 or so years will be much, much, much higher. The truth is no one really knows what will happen. But we do know that once CO2 is over .5- 1% it becomes toxic to humans. [snip no vulgarity allowed here]
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This thread is mystifying to me.
What do short term month to month data matter? Or even year on year data? 5 year averages are more relevant.
Goddard Institute:
“The eight warmest years in the GISS record have all occurred since 1998, and the 14 warmest years in the record have all occurred since 1990”
Currently we’re at a low point in the solar irradiance cycle and in the El Nino – La Nina cycle. Lower temperatures globally are to be expected.
There may well be lower temperatures for a year or two. It’s anticipated. But don’t hold your collective breath after that.
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